Tropical cyclone forecastingTropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged over the past several years.
Tropical cycloneRapidly rotating storm systemHurricane Florence viewed from the International Space Station in 2018. The eye, eyewall, and surrounding rainbands are characteristics of tropical cyclones.A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls.
Maximum sustained windThe maximum sustained wind associated with a tropical cyclone is a common indicator of the intensity of the storm. Within a mature tropical cyclone, it is found within the eyewall at a certain distance from the center, known as the radius of maximum wind, or RMW. Unlike gusts, the value of these winds are determined via their sampling and averaging the sampled results over a period of time.
Hot towerA hot tower is a tropical cumulonimbus cloud that reaches out of the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, and into the stratosphere. These formations are called "hot" because of the large amount of latent heat released as water vapor that condenses into liquid and freezes into ice within the cloud. Hot towers in regions of sufficient vorticity may acquire rotating updrafts; these are known as vortical hot towers.
Wind shearWind shear (; also written windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in windspeed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal wind shear. Vertical wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction with a change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with a change in lateral position for a given altitude.Regional Specialized Meteorological CentreA Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is responsible for the distribution of information, advisories, and warnings regarding the specific program they have a part of, agreed by consensus at the World Meteorological Organization as part of the World Weather Watch.
Climate changeHuman-caused changes to climate on EarthChanges in surface air temperature over the past 50 years. The Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures.Earth's average surface air temperature has increased about 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) since the Industrial Revolution.
Atmospheric convectionAtmospheric convection is the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere. It occurs when warmer, less dense air rises, while cooler, denser air sinks. This process is driven by parcel-environment instability, meaning that a "parcel" of air is warmer and less dense than the surrounding environment at the same altitude. This difference in temperature and density (and sometimes humidity) causes the parcel to rise, a process known as buoyancy.
Tropical cyclone basinsTraditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the North Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the North Pacific Ocean, the Southwest Pacific, the Southwest and Southeast Indian Oceans, and the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal). The West Pacific is the most active and the north Indian the least active.
Sea surface temperatureSea surface temperature (or ocean surface temperature) is the temperature of ocean water close to the surface. The exact meaning of surface varies in the literature and in practice. It is usually between 1 millimetre (0.04 in) and 20 metres (70 ft) below the sea surface. Sea surface temperatures greatly modify air masses in the Earth's atmosphere within a short distance of the shore.
Atmospheric instabilityAtmospheric instability is a condition where the Earth's atmosphere is considered to be unstable and as a result local weather is highly variable through distance and time. Atmospheric instability encourages vertical motion, which is directly correlated to different types of weather systems and their severity.
TroposphereThe troposphere is the lowest layer of the atmosphere of Earth. Pronounced , the name comes from Ancient Greek (trópos)'turning, change' and -sphere. It contains 80% of the total mass of the planetary atmosphere and 99% of the total mass of water vapor and aerosols, and is where most weather phenomena occur.
downwindRelated word or term.upwindRelated word or term.*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.