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Random walk hypothesis

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The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory which states that the prices of financial assets, particularly those in the stock market, follow a random walk. According to this hypothesis, price variations occur in an essentially random manner, which implies that they cannot be systematically predicted or consistently exploited to achieve returns above those of the overall market.

Burton MalkielBurton Gordon Malkiel (born August 28, 1932) is an American economist, financial executive, and writer most noted for his classic finance book A Random Walk Down Wall Street (first published 1973, in its 13th edition as of 2023). Malkiel is the Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and is a two-time chairman of the economics department there.A Random Walk Down Wall StreetA Random Walk Down Wall StreetA Random Walk Down Wall Street, written by Burton Gordon Malkiel, a Princeton Universityeconomist, is a book on the subject of stock markets which popularized the random walk hypothesis. Published in 1973, Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of a random walk, and thus one cannot consistently outperform market averages. The book is frequently cited by those in favor of the efficient-market hypothesis.Eugene FamaEugene FamaEugene Francis "Gene" Fama (; born February 14, 1939) is an American economist and Nobel Laureate. He is best known for his empirical work on portfolio theory, asset pricing, and the efficient-market hypothesis. He is Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. In 2013, he shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences jointly with Robert J. Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen.Jules RegnaultJules RegnaultJules Augustin Frédéric Regnault (French:; 1 February 1834, Béthencourt – 9 December 1894, Paris) was a French stock broker's assistant who first suggested a modern theory of stock price changes in Calcul des Chances et Philosophie de la Bourse (1863), using a random walk model.Paul CootnerPaul Harold Cootner (May 24, 1930 – April 16, 1978) was a financial economist noted for his book The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. Cootner was born in Logansport, Indiana. He attended the University of Florida, where he earned bachelor's and master's degree. He received a PhD in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1953. He worked at Brown University briefly before serving in the Army. He then joined Resources for the Future.MIT Sloan School of ManagementMIT Sloan School of ManagementThe MIT Sloan School of Management (branded as MIT Sloan) is the business school of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT Sloan offers bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degree programs, as well as executive education.Louis BachelierLouis BachelierLouis Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Bachelier (French:; 11 March 1870 – 28 April 1946) was a French mathematician at the turn of the 20th century. He is credited with being the first person to model the stochastic process now called Brownian motion, as part of his doctoral thesis The Theory of Speculation (Théorie de la spéculation, defended in 1900).Stock marketStock marketA stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks (also called as shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies that are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Investments are usually made with an investment strategy in mind.Random walkRandom walkIn mathematics, a random walk is a stochastic process that describes a path that consists of a succession of random steps on some mathematical space. An elementary example of a random walk is one on the integer number line Z {\displaystyle \mathbb {Z} } which starts at 0, and at each step moves +1 or −1 with equal probability.Princeton UniversityPrinceton UniversityPrivate university in Princeton, New Jersey, USPrinceton University is a privateIvy Leagueresearch university in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and one of the nine colonial colleges chartered before the American Revolution.Asset pricingIn financial economics, asset pricing refers to the formal development of the principles used in pricing, together with the resultant models. The treatment develops the interrelated paradigms of general equilibrium asset pricing and rational asset pricing, the latter corresponding to risk neutral pricing.FinanceFinance refers to the management, movement, investment, and raising of money. "Finance" also refers to the academic discipline that studies these. Based on the scope of financial activities, the discipline can be divided into the three primary branches personal, corporate, and public finance.

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