The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for

president President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) * President (education), a leader of a college or university * President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ...

and

vice president A vice president, also director in British English, is an officer in government or business who is below the president (chief executive officer) in rank. It can also refer to executive vice presidents, signifying that the vice president is on ...

Arizona Arizona ( ; nv, Hoozdo Hahoodzo ; ood, Alĭ ṣonak ) is a state in the Southwestern United States. It is the 6th largest and the 14th most populous of the 50 states. Its capital and largest city is Phoenix. Arizona is part of the Fou ...

was won by incumbent

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

by 10.5%. Prior to the election, 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe

red state Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party — the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in b ...

. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004, in the city of Tempe. , this is the last time Arizona was won by a double-digit margin of victory. This was the first election in which any candidate won more than a million votes as well as in which Maricopa County cast more than a million ballots. Until

2016 File:2016 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: Bombed-out buildings in Ankara following the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt; the Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff; Damaged houses duri ...

, this would be the last time Arizona voted to the left of

Georgia Georgia most commonly refers to: * Georgia (country), a country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia * Georgia (U.S. state), a state in the Southeast United States Georgia may also refer to: Places Historical states and entities * Related to the ...

North Carolina North Carolina () is a state in the Southeastern region of the United States. The state is the 28th largest and 9th-most populous of the United States. It is bordered by Virginia to the north, the Atlantic Ocean to the east, Georgia and ...

. As of

2020 2020 was heavily defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to global social and economic disruption, mass cancellations and postponements of events, worldwide lockdowns and the largest economic recession since the Great Depression in t ...

, this is the last time Arizona voted to the right of

Arkansas Arkansas ( ) is a landlocked state in the South Central United States. It is bordered by Missouri to the north, Tennessee and Mississippi to the east, Louisiana to the south, and Texas and Oklahoma to the west. Its name is from the O ...

Primaries

* 2004 Arizona Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. # D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican #

Associated Press The Associated Press (AP) is an American non-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1846, it operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association. It produces news reports that are distributed to its members, U.S. ne ...

: Leans Bush #

CNN CNN (Cable News Network) is a multinational cable news channel headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S. Founded in 1980 by American media proprietor Ted Turner and Reese Schonfeld as a 24-hour cable news channel, and presently owned by ...

: Bush #

Cook Political Report ''The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter'' is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. Presidency, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and U.S. governors' offices. Sel ...

: Likely Republican #

Newsweek ''Newsweek'' is an American weekly online news magazine co-owned 50 percent each by Dev Pragad, its president and CEO, and Johnathan Davis, who has no operational role at ''Newsweek''. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely ...

: Solid Bush #

New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

: Leans Bush #

Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, ...

: Bush #

Research 2000 Research 2000 was a U.S. opinion polling and marketing research company based in Olney, Maryland. It began doing research on upcoming elections in 1999 after its President, Del Ali, moved on from Mason-Dixon Political Media Research. Research ...

: Solid Bush #

Washington Post ''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large na ...

: Bush #

Washington Times ''The Washington Times'' is an American conservative daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., that covers general interest topics with a particular emphasis on national politics. Its broadsheet daily edition is distributed throughout ...

: Leans Bush #

Zogby International John J. Zogby (born September 3, 1948) is an American public opinion pollster, author, and public speaker. He is founder of the Zogby International poll, and he serves as a senior partner at John Zogby Strategies, a full-service marketing and p ...

: Bush # Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692. Kerry raised $1,525,930.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush. The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated

Maricopa County Maricopa County is in the south-central part of the U.S. state of Arizona. As of the 2020 census, the population was 4,420,568, making it the state's most populous county, and the fourth-most populous in the United States. It contains about ...

with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and

Arizona's 7th congressional district Arizona's 7th congressional district is a congressional district located in the U.S. state of Arizona. The district includes the western third of Tucson, part of Yuma and Nogales, and some peripheral parts of metro Phoenix. It is currently repr ...

and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

Results by county

Results by congressional district

Bush won six of eight congressional districts.

Electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8

congressional districts Congressional districts, also known as electoral districts and legislative districts, electorates, or wards in other nations, are divisions of a larger administrative region that represent the population of a region in the larger congressional bod ...

and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a

faithless elector In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or ...

. The electors of each state and the

District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...

met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. # Linda Barber # Malcolm Barrett # Jim Click # Cynthia J. Collins # Webb Crockett # Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin # Ross Farnsworth #

Ira A. Fulton Ira Amond Fulton (born November 12, 1931) is an Arizona philanthropist, land developer, businessman, and founder of Fulton Homes. In 2006, BusinessWeek listed Fulton 36th on its list of "The 50 Most Generous Philanthropists.". The Arizona Legisla ...

# Bernice C. Roberts # Phillip Townsend

Notes

References

{{United States elections

2004 2004 Arizona elections