United States Senate Election In Florida, 2010

The 2010 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mel Martínez, who was elected in a very close race against Democrat Betty Castor with 49% of the vote in 2004, did not seek re-election to a second term, and stated on August 7, 2009, that he would resign prior to the end of his term. As his successor, the governor of Florida, Republican Charlie Crist, appointed his former chief of staff, George LeMieux. LeMieux, who replaced Martínez in the Senate on September 10, 2009, was a placeholder and did not seek re-election, as Crist aimed at the seat himself. This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.

Crist publicly launched his campaign for the seat in mid-2009. When he declared his candidacy, he received many Republican endorsements, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Martínez, and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain. However, his support of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 hurt his popularity among conservatives, and Tea Party candidate Marco Rubio, the former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, surged in the polls. In April 2010, Crist dropped out of the Republican primary and ran as an Independent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee withdrew its endorsement of Crist and demanded a refund of its campaign funds that it provided for the Crist campaign. Rubio went on to win the Republican primary against only token opposition.

U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek was the first Democrat to declare his intention to run and he defeated billionaire businessman Jeff Greene in his party's primary. Also on the ballot were Alexander Snitker of the Libertarian Party, Bernie DeCastro of the Constitution Party, and five other independent candidates.

Polling initially showed Crist neck and neck with Rubio, but by the end of August, Rubio opened up a solid and consistent lead. He was supported by Republican and some Independent voters whereas Democratic and other Independent voters were split between Crist and Meek. Rubio went on to win the election with 49% of the vote to Crist's 30% and Meek's 20%.

Background

Republican Mel Martínez, the former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, was elected to the Senate in 2004, defeating Democrat Betty Castor, the former president of the University of South Florida and former Florida Education Commissioner, by 82,663 votes, 49.4% to 48.3%. He succeeded retiring Democratic incumbent Bob Graham.

Throughout 2008, opinion polls found that Martínez was consistently unpopular with a plurality of Florida voters. Public Policy Polling surveys taken in June, July/August, and September 2008 found that his job approval rating was 23%, 24% and 23%, respectively, with 43%, 40% and 37%, respectively, disapproving of his job performance. A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey in November 2008 found him with a higher job approval rating, with 42% approving of his job performance, 33% disapproving and 25% unsure. However, the same survey also found that only 36% of Florida voters thought he deserved to be re-elected, compared to 38% who did not and 26% who were unsure. 36% also said that if the 2010 election were held on that day, they would vote for Martínez, while 40% said they would vote for his Democratic opponent, with 24% unsure. Furthermore, his personal approval rating was 31%, with 28% having an unfavourable opinion of him and 40% saying they had no opinion of him.

In head-to-head matches against specific Democratic opponents, the same Public Policy Polling surveys found Martínez tied with U.S. Representative Robert Wexler and trailing Chief Financial Officer of Florida Alex Sink, former senator Bob Graham, U.S. Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. Representative Allen Boyd and U.S. Representative Ron Klein, by margins of between 1 and 20 points. In its November 2008 ratings of the 2010 Senate elections, The Cook Political Report

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