Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) is a bulletin released by the U.S. Navy-operated Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii or the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, Virginia, warning of the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming from a tropical disturbance that has been monitored. Such alerts are generally always issued when it is fairly certain that a tropical cyclone will form and are not always released before cyclone genesis, particularly if the cyclone appears suddenly. The TCFA consists of several different checks that are performed by the on-duty meteorologist of the system and its surroundings. If the condition being checked is met, a certain number of points are given to the system.

Parts of the TCFA

Section 1

The first section of the TCFA contains information on the area of the alert as well as the estimated center of the circulation. The estimated maximum sustained winds are provided as well.

Section 2

The second section generally contains more specific information pertaining to the system. Information such as location relative to nearby cities or places of interest can usually be found in this section. Some of the reasoning for the issuance of the TCFA, which usually consists of recent changes in the system, can be found here. The section always ends with a statement as to the potential for development, which the JTWC will rank as either low, medium, or high (formerly poor, fair, or good).

Section 3

This final section contains the time of the next bulletin on this system, which will update the system's progress over the elapsed time. The bulletin will be either another TCFA, a cancellation message, or the first advisory/warning on the system. The issuance of an