The territorial peace theory finds that the stability of a country's borders has a large influence on the political climate of the country. Peace and stable borders foster a democratic and tolerant climate, while territorial conflicts with neighbor countries have far-reaching consequences for both individual-level attitudes, government policies, conflict escalation, arms races, and war. In particular, the territorial peace theory seeks to explain why countries with stable borders are likely to develop

democracy Democracy (from , ''dēmos'' 'people' and ''kratos'' 'rule') is a form of government in which political power is vested in the people or the population of a state. Under a minimalist definition of democracy, rulers are elected through competitiv ...

while countries with insecure borders tend to be autocratic. The connection between

peace Peace is a state of harmony in the absence of hostility and violence, and everything that discusses achieving human welfare through justice and peaceful conditions. In a societal sense, peace is commonly used to mean a lack of conflict (suc ...

and

has long been recognized, but theorists disagree about the direction of causality. The

democratic peace theory Proponents of democratic peace theory argue that both electoral and republican forms of democracy are hesitant to engage in armed conflict with other identified democracies. Different advocates of this theory suggest that several factors ar ...

posits that democracy causes peace, while the territorial peace theory makes the opposite claim that peace causes democracy. Since the early 2000s, there has been increasing scientific support for the territorial peace theory and criticism of the democratic peace theory. The territorial peace theory is addressing several weaknesses of the democratic peace theory. In particular, the democratic peace theory is contradicted by the historical observation that countries generally become democratic only after they have established peace with their neighbor countries.

Direction of causality

The causal connection between peace and democracy is a subject of continued debate. Does peace cause democracy or does democracy cause peace? Is the causality going both ways in a self-amplifying cycle? Or is some third factor causing both peace and democracy? Historical studies show that countries become democratic only after their borders have been settled. It is very rare that democracy is established before territorial borders have been stabilized, and the few historical cases of democracy before peace have not been stable. This is strong evidence that a causal arrow goes from peace to democracy. In fact, statistical studies show that democracy cannot account for peace between neighbor countries, but peace can account for joint democracy. Territorial conflicts have a remarkable effect on the attitudes and values of the population. Threats against the territorial borders of a country are observed to provoke a rallying effect in support of the leader and to foster a range of attitudes and behaviors that are antithetical to key democratic values, such as

nationalism Nationalism is an idea or movement that holds that the nation should be congruent with the state. As a movement, it presupposes the existence and tends to promote the interests of a particular nation, Smith, Anthony. ''Nationalism: Theory, I ...

, authoritarianism, intolerance, and decreased political trust. Such reactions are likely to prevent democratization in countries with unstable borders. Another indication that the direction of causality goes from peace to democracy is obtained by the use of environment features as an instrumental variable. A rugged terrain is known to increase the likelihood of civil conflict. An observed positive correlation between rugged terrain, intolerance, and lack of democratic values is interpreted as an indication that conflict impedes democracy because the reverse causation from

autocracy Autocracy is a form of government in which absolute power is held by the head of state and Head of government, government, known as an autocrat. It includes some forms of monarchy and all forms of dictatorship, while it is contrasted with demo ...

to rugged terrain can be excluded. One reason why democratic countries handle disputes with their neighbors more peacefully than non-democratic countries is that they have dispensed with the disputes most likely to involve the use of military force prior to becoming democratic, rather than because of their

institution An institution is a humanly devised structure of rules and norms that shape and constrain social behavior. All definitions of institutions generally entail that there is a level of persistence and continuity. Laws, rules, social conventions and ...

s or norms as the democratic peace theory supposes. In 75% of the country dyads examined in a study, border settlement occurred at least 35 years before that dyad became jointly democratic for the first time. A possible causality in the opposite direction, from democracy to peace, can be established if we make a distinction between negative peace and positive peace. Negative peace is the absence of war between neighbor countries. Positive peace is an active mutual recognition and cooperation and absence of threats. Positive peace results from high-quality democracy. Transitions from negative peace to positive peace often occur when new governments come to power, and more commonly in democratic states. Some theorists argue that the correlation between peace and democracy can be explained by a third factor causing both peace and democracy. The capitalist peace theory argues that

economic development In economics, economic development (or economic and social development) is the process by which the economic well-being and quality of life of a nation, region, local community, or an individual are improved according to targeted goals and object ...

and markets and interdependence are the true causes of peace, and that democracy is uncorrelated with peace when these factors are accounted for. Another factor during the

Cold War The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...

was the dominance of the US that fostered peace between democracies in the so-called Pax Americana. Another possibility is a circular causation so that peace, economic interdependence, democracy, and

international organization An international organization, also known as an intergovernmental organization or an international institution, is an organization that is established by a treaty or other type of instrument governed by international law and possesses its own le ...

all mutually reinforce each other in a positive

feedback Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are routed back as inputs as part of a chain of cause and effect that forms a circuit or loop. The system can then be said to ''feed back'' into itself. The notion of cause-and-effect has to be handle ...

loop. Peace and democracy tend to spread regionally so that clusters of democracies at peace with each other form in areas where borders have been settled and where countries have no reason to threaten each other's borders.

Theoretical explanations

There are several theories seeking to explain why peace comes before democracy. These theories may all supplement each other. Military explanation. A country with unstable borders needs to build up a large

military capability Military capability is defined by the Australian Defence Force as "the ability to achieve a desired effect in a specific operating environment". It is defined by three interdependent factors: combat readiness, sustainable capability and force struc ...

in order to defend its territory against possible attacks from neighbor countries. A large

standing army A standing army is a permanent, often professional, army. It is composed of full-time soldiers who may be either career soldiers or conscripts. It differs from army reserves, who are enrolled for the long term, but activated only during wars ...

can not only be used for defense against external enemies but also for suppressing internal dissidents. This will enable the leaders to augment their position and repress any

rebellion Rebellion is an uprising that resists and is organized against one's government. A rebel is a person who engages in a rebellion. A rebel group is a consciously coordinated group that seeks to gain political control over an entire state or a ...

or demands for redistribution of wealth and democratization. Defense explanation. Individuals in a country with unstable borders will fear displacement from their territory. They depend on a strong state leadership to provide for their protection and security. This creates a rallying effect and support for a strong and authoritarian leader. It has been observed that the citizens in this situation often pay lip service to the ideology of democracy while in fact they support an authoritarian leader. Psychological explanation. Several psychological studies show that territorial conflicts lead to increased

and intolerance of outgroups, while other kinds of threats have little or no such effect. This intolerance is connected with a less democratic attitude, less support for negotiated compromise with the enemy, less concern about government corruption, and also less tolerance towards other outgroups unrelated to the conflict. This effect is increasing with the degree of attachment to the contested territory. Evolutionary explanation. The psychological effects of territorial threats have an evolutionary explanation according to regality theory. Humans have evolved a psychological flexibility that make them desire a strong leader, strict

discipline Discipline is the self-control that is gained by requiring that rules or orders be obeyed, and the ability to keep working at something that is difficult. Disciplinarians believe that such self-control is of the utmost importance and enforce a ...

, intolerance,

xenophobia Xenophobia (from (), 'strange, foreign, or alien', and (), 'fear') is the fear or dislike of anything that is perceived as being foreign or strange. It is an expression that is based on the perception that a conflict exists between an in-gr ...

, and a hierarchical social organization if their social group is threatened by conflict with another group. The opposite tendencies are seen in case of peace and collective security where people desire an egalitarian, democratic, and tolerant society. The construction of a hierarchical society with a strong leader in case of conflicts with neighbor groups benefits the citizens by increasing the social cohesion, suppressing free riding, and improving the capacity for

collective action Collective action refers to action taken together Advocacy group, by a group of people whose goal is to enhance their condition and achieve a common objective. It is a term that has formulations and theories in many areas of the social sciences ...

in war and violent conflict. This evolved response pattern explains why territorial conflicts, war, and terror have stronger psychological effects than other kinds of conflict, and why such conflicts lead to authoritarian attitudes and disregard for democracy.

Reversal to autocracy

While the late 20'th century has seen large waves of democratization in many parts of the world, we have also seen trends of backlash and decrease in democratic freedoms, especially in the early 2000s. Historical studies of countries that have become less democratic show that these countries are often led by popular leaders who consolidate their power with general support by the population. While the population still supported democracy in principle, they actually desired a more powerful leader and voted for an authoritarian populist. This situation is typically preceded by some external threat – real or imagined – against the country. This observation fits with the theories, explained above, that territorial threats lead to increased authoritarianism and decreased support for democracy. The threat that makes the population accept a centralization of power and a less democratic system is sometimes deliberately fabricated. There are many historical examples of political leaders who engage in psychological manipulation of their own population through fearmongering, exaggeration of dangers, or even creation of false flag attacks in order to augment their own power. In other cases, the threats are fabricated by foreign powers who engage in psychological warfare and a strategy of tension in order to facilitate an authoritarian coup.

Criticism

Proponents of the democratic peace theory – the theory that democracy causes peace – argue that democracies are likely to use

mediation Mediation is a structured, voluntary process for resolving disputes, facilitated by a neutral third party known as the mediator. It is a structured, interactive process where an independent third party, the mediator, assists disputing parties ...

or binding

arbitration Arbitration is a formal method of dispute resolution involving a third party neutral who makes a binding decision. The third party neutral (the 'arbitrator', 'arbiter' or 'arbitral tribunal') renders the decision in the form of an 'arbitrati ...

rather than military force to resolve interstate disputes. Democracies are less likely than autocracies to initiate wars that they are not certain of winning. Studies show that the popularity of the government is decreasing if war casualties are high, as the democratic peace theory predicts. Another study found that the risk of violent conflicts is decreasing when the degree of

accountability In ethics and governance, accountability is equated with answerability, culpability, liability, and the expectation of account-giving. As in an aspect of governance, it has been central to discussions related to problems in the public secto ...

of a government is increasing. Furthermore, citizens of democracies are significantly less likely to support the use of force against democracies than against autocracies. Critics further argue that if the territorial peace theory assumes that leaders suppress democracy because they believe that democracy impedes the ability of their state to fight wars, then this in fact confirms that democracies are more peaceful. Some researchers have even argued that war may lead to a regime change which may pave the way for democratization. Democratic peace researchers have found that the statistical correlation between peace and democracy remains significant when the correlation is controlled for the effect of border stability, while a rebuttal argues that this applies to non-neighbor states, while the statistics still supports the territorial peace theory for states with shared borders.

Time series In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...

analyses show that rivalizing states which are both democratic are less likely to escalate a rivalry to violent conflict. The pacifying effect of joint democracy is increasing over time after both states have transitioned to democracy. These effects of democracy extend beyond war. Democratic dyads are also less likely than non-democratic dyads to threaten, display, or use force against one another. The territorial peace theory does not explain the observations by the interactive model of democratic peace, which finds influences in the data from both political similarity and democracy.Altman, D., Rojas-de-Galarreta, F., & Urdinez, F. (2021). An interactive model of democratic peace. Journal of Peace Research, 58(3), 384-398.
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Synthesis of democratic peace and territorial peace theories

The territorial peace peace theory refers to neighbor countries because they have a shared border that they may fight over. Statistical studies support territorial peace rather than democratic peace when studying only country pairs with shared borders. Joint democracy does not significantly increase peace between neighbor countries until after they have settled their borders. The situation is different for countries with no shared border. Borders will rarely be an issue between non-neighbor countries. But democracy may improve peaceful relations between countries even if they have no shared border. Democratic countries are more likely to engage in peaceful negotiations and less likely to use threats or force against each other because of shared norms and because voters will often replace warmaking politicians. This effect of democracy works also for neighbor countries after they have settled their borders. Joint democracy for countries that are already at peace with each other decreases the likelihood of new conflicts, and reduces the severity of militarized disputes and crises if they occur. Therefore, the democratic peace theory is useful for conflicts between countries with no shared border and for countries that are already at peace with each other, while the territorial peace theory is the most relevant theory for neighbor countries with unstable borders. The appearance of joint democracy has no significant pacifying effect in the absence of settled borders. Democratic leaders are less likely than autocrats to initiate a violent conflict, but after a military confrontation has started, there is little difference between the actions of democratic and autocratic leaders. The peaceful effect of democracy is to some extent offset by the observation that democratic leaders are less likely to retreat in case of military crisis because their popularity will decrease when they lose face.

Political applications

The territorial peace theory has important implications for

international relations International relations (IR, and also referred to as international studies, international politics, or international affairs) is an academic discipline. In a broader sense, the study of IR, in addition to multilateral relations, concerns al ...

global politics Global politics, also known as world politics, names both the discipline that studies the political and economic patterns of the world and the field that is being studied. At the centre of that field are the different processes of political global ...

, and peace building. If peace and stable borders are preconditions for democracy, then any interventionist peace policy should focus first and foremost on the settlement of territorial conflicts rather than trying to impose democracy on conflict-filled countries. There have been many attempts to impose democracy on troubled countries with explicit reference to the democratic peace theory. The stated purpose of such interventions was to create peace through democracy. For example, the involvement of the US in

World War I World War I or the First World War (28 July 1914 – 11 November 1918), also known as the Great War, was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War I, Allies (or Entente) and the Central Powers. Fighting to ...

World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...

, as well as the

Iraq War The Iraq War (), also referred to as the Second Gulf War, was a prolonged conflict in Iraq lasting from 2003 to 2011. It began with 2003 invasion of Iraq, the invasion by a Multi-National Force – Iraq, United States-led coalition, which ...

, were all based on the belief that democracy causes peace. Interventionist attempts to install democracy by military means have almost invariably failed. The territorial peace theory predicts that military interventions are likely to lead to less democracy, not more, even if the interventions aim at establishing democracy. In several cases, the democratic peace theory has been used as a justification for initiating a war, rather than the true motive. See the chapter on justification for initiating war under democratic peace theory. While UN mandates that call for democratic elections after a civil war may be normatively appealing, they are unlikely to be successful. In fact, it has been argued that early elections after civil wars are increasing the likelihood of future conflict because they may lead to suppression of the interests of minority groups.

References

{{International relations theories Political science theories International relations theory Political theories Peace Democracy Autocracy