Suwałki Gap
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The Suwałki Gap, also known as the Suwałki corridor (), is a sparsely populated area around the border between
Lithuania Lithuania, officially the Republic of Lithuania, is a country in the Baltic region of Europe. It is one of three Baltic states and lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, P ...
and
Poland Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is a country in Central Europe. It extends from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains in the south, bordered by Lithuania and Russia to the northeast, Belarus and Ukrai ...
, and centres on the shortest path between
Belarus Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus spans an a ...
and the
Russia Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a country spanning Eastern Europe and North Asia. It is the list of countries and dependencies by area, largest country in the world, and extends across Time in Russia, eleven time zones, sharing Borders ...
n
exclave An enclave is a territory that is entirely surrounded by the territory of only one other state or entity. An enclave can be an independent territory or part of a larger one. Enclaves may also exist within territorial waters. ''Enclave'' is s ...
of
Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad Oblast () is the westernmost federal subjects of Russia, federal subject of the Russian Federation. It is a Enclave and exclave, semi-exclave on the Baltic Sea within the Baltic region of Prussia (region), Prussia, surrounded by Pola ...
on the Polish side of the border. Named after the Polish town of
Suwałki Suwałki (; ; or סוּוואַלק) is a city in northeastern Poland with a population of 69,206 (2021). It is the capital of Suwałki County and one of the most important centers of commerce in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. A relatively young ci ...
, this
choke point In military strategy, a choke point (or chokepoint), or sometimes bottleneck, is a geographical feature on land such as a valley, defile or bridge, or maritime passage through a critical waterway such as a strait, which an armed force is for ...
has become of great strategic and military importance since Poland and the
Baltic states The Baltic states or the Baltic countries is a geopolitical term encompassing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All three countries are members of NATO, the European Union, the Eurozone, and the OECD. The three sovereign states on the eastern co ...
joined the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Established in the aftermat ...
(NATO). The border between Poland and Lithuania in the area of the Suwałki Gap was formed after the
Suwałki Agreement The Suwałki Agreement, Treaty of Suvalkai, or Suwalki Treaty (, ) was an agreement signed in the town of Suwałki between Poland and Lithuania on October 7, 1920. It was registered in the '' League of Nations Treaty Series'' on January 19, 192 ...
of 1920, but it carried little importance in the
interwar period In the history of the 20th century, the interwar period, also known as the interbellum (), lasted from 11 November 1918 to 1 September 1939 (20 years, 9 months, 21 days) – from the end of World War I (WWI) to the beginning of World War II ( ...
as at the time, the Polish lands stretched farther northeast. During the
Cold War The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...
,
Lithuania Lithuania, officially the Republic of Lithuania, is a country in the Baltic region of Europe. It is one of three Baltic states and lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, P ...
was part of the
Soviet Union The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...
and communist Poland was a member of the Soviet-led
Warsaw Pact The Warsaw Pact (WP), formally the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (TFCMA), was a Collective security#Collective defense, collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Polish People's Republic, Poland, between the Sovi ...
alliance. The
dissolution of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union was formally dissolved as a sovereign state and subject of international law on 26 December 1991 by Declaration No. 142-N of the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. Declaration No. 142-Н of ...
and the Warsaw Pact hardened borders that cut through the shortest land route between Kaliningrad (Russian territory isolated from the mainland) and Belarus, Russia's ally. As the Baltic states and Poland eventually joined NATO, this narrow border stretch between Poland and Lithuania became a vulnerability for the military bloc because, if a hypothetical military conflict were to erupt between Russia and Belarus on one side and NATO on the other, capturing the -long strip of land between Russia's
Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad Oblast () is the westernmost federal subjects of Russia, federal subject of the Russian Federation. It is a Enclave and exclave, semi-exclave on the Baltic Sea within the Baltic region of Prussia (region), Prussia, surrounded by Pola ...
and
Belarus Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus spans an a ...
would likely jeopardise NATO's attempts to defend the Baltic states, because it would cut off the only land route there. NATO's fears about the Suwałki Gap intensified after 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched the
war in Donbas The war in Donbas, or the Donbas war, was a phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. The war Timeline of the war in Donbas (2014), began in April 2014, when Russian separatist forces in Ukraine, Russian para ...
, and further increased after Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These worries prompted the alliance to increase its military presence in the area, and an
arms race An arms race occurs when two or more groups compete in military superiority. It consists of a competition between two or more State (polity), states to have superior armed forces, concerning production of weapons, the growth of a military, and ...
was triggered by these events. Both Russia and the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational union, supranational political union, political and economic union of Member state of the European Union, member states that are Geography of the European Union, located primarily in Europe. The u ...
countries also saw great interest in civilian uses of the gap. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Russia attempted to negotiate an extraterritorial corridor to connect its exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast with
Grodno Grodno, or Hrodna, is a city in western Belarus. It is one of the oldest cities in Belarus. The city is located on the Neman, Neman River, from Minsk, about from the Belarus–Poland border, border with Poland, and from the Belarus–Lithua ...
in Belarus. Poland, Lithuania and the EU did not consent. Movement of goods through the gap was disrupted in summer 2022, during the
Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
, as Lithuania and the European Union introduced transit restrictions on Russian vehicles as part of their sanctions. The Via Baltica road, a vital link connecting
Finland Finland, officially the Republic of Finland, is a Nordic country in Northern Europe. It borders Sweden to the northwest, Norway to the north, and Russia to the east, with the Gulf of Bothnia to the west and the Gulf of Finland to the south, ...
and the
Baltic states The Baltic states or the Baltic countries is a geopolitical term encompassing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All three countries are members of NATO, the European Union, the Eurozone, and the OECD. The three sovereign states on the eastern co ...
with the rest of the European Union, passes through the area and, as of April 2024, is under construction. The expressway connection from the Polish side, the new S61 expressway, is almost complete, while the A5 highway in Lithuania is being upgraded to a divided highway. The
Rail Baltica Rail Baltica is an under-construction rail infrastructure project that is intended to integrate the Baltic states in the European rail network. Its purpose is to provide passenger and freight service between participating countries and improve ra ...
route near the Suwałki Gap is still in pre-construction stages.


Background

The Suwałki Gap is a sparsely populated region in the north-eastern corner of Poland, in
Podlaskie Voivodeship Podlaskie Voivodeship ( ) is a Voivodeships of Poland, voivodeship in northeastern Poland. The name of the voivodeship refers to the historical region of Podlachia (in Polish, ''Podlasie''), and significant part of its territory corresponds to th ...
. This hilly area, one of the coldest in Poland, is located on the western margins of the
East European Plain The East European Plain (also called the Russian Plain, "Extending from eastern Poland through the entire European Russia to the Ural Mountains, the ''East European Plain'' encompasses all of the Baltic states and Belarus, nearly all of Ukraine, ...
. It is crossed by numerous river valleys and deep lakes (such as
Hańcza Hańcza (; ) is a lake in Suwałki Region, Podlaskie Voivodeship, Poland. It is 311.4 ha large, 4.5 km long and 1.2 km at its widest. It is the deepest lake in Poland with a maximum depth of 108.5 m. The Czarna Hańcza river flows th ...
and Wigry), and its vast swathes are covered by thick forests (including the Augustów Primeval Forest) and
marsh In ecology, a marsh is a wetland that is dominated by herbaceous plants rather than by woody plants.Keddy, P.A. 2010. Wetland Ecology: Principles and Conservation (2nd edition). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 497 p More in genera ...
es, such as those in the
Biebrza National Park Biebrza National Park () is a national park in Podlaskie Voivodeship, northeastern Poland, along the Biebrza River. The largest of Poland's 23 national parks, the Biebrza National Park was created on 9 September 1993. Its total area is , of whi ...
. To its west lies another lake district known as
Masuria Masuria ( ; ; ) is an ethnographic and geographic region in northern and northeastern Poland, known for its 2,000 lakes. Masuria occupies much of the Masurian Lake District. Administratively, it is part of the Warmian–Masurian Voivodeship (ad ...
. The area is relatively poorly developed - there is little industry besides
forestry Forestry is the science and craft of creating, managing, planting, using, conserving and repairing forests and woodlands for associated resources for human and Natural environment, environmental benefits. Forestry is practiced in plantations and ...
-related facilities, the road network is sparse and the nearest large airport is located several hundred kilometres away; only two major roads (with at least one lane in each direction) and one rail line link Poland with Lithuania. The area is home to some ethnic minorities, particularly
Ukrainians Ukrainians (, ) are an East Slavs, East Slavic ethnic group native to Ukraine. Their native tongue is Ukrainian language, Ukrainian, and the majority adhere to Eastern Orthodox Church, Eastern Orthodoxy, forming the List of contemporary eth ...
,
Lithuanians Lithuanians () are a Balts, Baltic ethnic group. They are native to Lithuania, where they number around 2,378,118 people. Another two million make up the Lithuanian diaspora, largely found in countries such as the Lithuanian Americans, United Sta ...
(close to the border with
Lithuania Lithuania, officially the Republic of Lithuania, is a country in the Baltic region of Europe. It is one of three Baltic states and lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, P ...
) and
Russians Russians ( ) are an East Slavs, East Slavic ethnic group native to Eastern Europe. Their mother tongue is Russian language, Russian, the most spoken Slavic languages, Slavic language. The majority of Russians adhere to Eastern Orthodox Church ...
, but the Russians are not very numerous on the Polish side. Poland and Lithuania both gained
independence Independence is a condition of a nation, country, or state, in which residents and population, or some portion thereof, exercise self-government, and usually sovereignty, over its territory. The opposite of independence is the status of ...
in the aftermath of
World War I World War I or the First World War (28 July 1914 – 11 November 1918), also known as the Great War, was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War I, Allies (or Entente) and the Central Powers. Fighting to ...
and started to
fight Combat (French language, French for ''fight'') is a purposeful violent Conflict (process), conflict between multiple combatants with the intent to harm the opposition. Combat may be armed (using weapons) or unarmed (Hand-to-hand combat, not usin ...
in order to establish control over as much terrain as they could militarily hold. While Lithuania claimed majority-Polish
Suwałki Suwałki (; ; or סוּוואַלק) is a city in northeastern Poland with a population of 69,206 (2021). It is the capital of Suwałki County and one of the most important centers of commerce in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. A relatively young ci ...
and
Vilnius Vilnius ( , ) is the capital of and List of cities in Lithuania#Cities, largest city in Lithuania and the List of cities in the Baltic states by population, most-populous city in the Baltic states. The city's estimated January 2025 population w ...
, it ultimately failed to control both. Suwałki was agreed to be part of Poland as a result of the
Suwałki Agreement The Suwałki Agreement, Treaty of Suvalkai, or Suwalki Treaty (, ) was an agreement signed in the town of Suwałki between Poland and Lithuania on October 7, 1920. It was registered in the '' League of Nations Treaty Series'' on January 19, 192 ...
, while Vilnius was captured by Poland in a
false flag A false flag operation is an act committed with the intent of disguising the actual source of responsibility and pinning blame on another party. The term "false flag" originated in the 16th century as an expression meaning an intentional misrep ...
operation known as
Żeligowski's mutiny Żeligowski's Mutiny (, also , ) was a Polish false flag operation led by General Lucjan Żeligowski in October 1920, which resulted in the creation of the Republic of Central Lithuania. Józef Piłsudski, the Chief of State of Poland, surreptit ...
. In the
interwar period In the history of the 20th century, the interwar period, also known as the interbellum (), lasted from 11 November 1918 to 1 September 1939 (20 years, 9 months, 21 days) – from the end of World War I (WWI) to the beginning of World War II ( ...
, the Suwałki region was a protrusion of Poland into surrounding
Lithuania Lithuania, officially the Republic of Lithuania, is a country in the Baltic region of Europe. It is one of three Baltic states and lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, P ...
and
East Prussia East Prussia was a Provinces of Prussia, province of the Kingdom of Prussia from 1772 to 1829 and again from 1878 (with the Kingdom itself being part of the German Empire from 1871); following World War I it formed part of the Weimar Republic's ...
(part of
Germany Germany, officially the Federal Republic of Germany, is a country in Central Europe. It lies between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea to the north and the Alps to the south. Its sixteen States of Germany, constituent states have a total popu ...
), rather than a gap, and played little strategic importance. Following
World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...
, the vicinity of
Königsberg Königsberg (; ; ; ; ; ; , ) is the historic Germany, German and Prussian name of the city now called Kaliningrad, Russia. The city was founded in 1255 on the site of the small Old Prussians, Old Prussian settlement ''Twangste'' by the Teuton ...
, renamed
Kaliningrad Kaliningrad,. known as Königsberg; ; . until 1946, is the largest city and administrative centre of Kaliningrad Oblast, an Enclave and exclave, exclave of Russia between Lithuania and Poland ( west of the bulk of Russia), located on the Prego ...
shortly after the war, was incorporated as part of the
Russian SFSR The Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (Russian SFSR or RSFSR), previously known as the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic and the Russian Soviet Republic, and unofficially as Soviet Russia,Declaration of Rights of the labo ...
, part of the
Soviet Union The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...
, and became a closed area for most of the
Soviet era The history of the Soviet Union (USSR) (1922–91) began with the ideals of the Russian Bolshevik Revolution and ended in dissolution amidst economic collapse and political disintegration. Established in 1922 following the Russian Civil War, ...
.
Lithuania Lithuania, officially the Republic of Lithuania, is a country in the Baltic region of Europe. It is one of three Baltic states and lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, P ...
became a
Union republic In the Soviet Union, a Union Republic () or unofficially a Republic of the USSR was a constituent federated political entity with a system of government called a Soviet republic, which was officially defined in the 1977 constitution as "a ...
within the USSR, while
Poland Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is a country in Central Europe. It extends from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains in the south, bordered by Lithuania and Russia to the northeast, Belarus and Ukrai ...
came under the
Soviet sphere of influence The term "Soviet empire" collectively refers to the world's territories that the Soviet Union dominated politically, economically, and militarily. This phenomenon, particularly in the context of the Cold War, is used by Sovietologists to descri ...
and joined the
Warsaw Pact The Warsaw Pact (WP), formally the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (TFCMA), was a Collective security#Collective defense, collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Polish People's Republic, Poland, between the Sovi ...
. Until the
dissolution of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union was formally dissolved as a sovereign state and subject of international law on 26 December 1991 by Declaration No. 142-N of the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. Declaration No. 142-Н of ...
, Poland's only eastern and northern neighbour was the USSR, thus, as in the interwar period, the region mattered little in military terms. This changed after 1991, when
Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad Oblast () is the westernmost federal subjects of Russia, federal subject of the Russian Federation. It is a Enclave and exclave, semi-exclave on the Baltic Sea within the Baltic region of Prussia (region), Prussia, surrounded by Pola ...
became a semi-exclave of Russia, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are neighbours with
Belarus Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus spans an a ...
. Neither borders the "mainland" part of Russia. Kaliningrad Oblast's neighbours both entered the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational union, supranational political union, political and economic union of Member state of the European Union, member states that are Geography of the European Union, located primarily in Europe. The u ...
and the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Established in the aftermat ...
(NATO). At the same time, only of Polish territory separates two areas of the rival
Collective Security Treaty Organisation The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, ) is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia consisting of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The Collective Security Treaty ha ...
(CSTO) and the
Union State The Union State is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy. Originally, the Union State aimed to crea ...
, both of which include Russia and Belarus. The former Estonian President
Toomas Hendrik Ilves Toomas Hendrik Ilves (; born 26 December 1953) is an Estonian politician who served as the fourth president of Estonia from 2006 until 2016. Ilves worked as a diplomat and journalist, and he was the leader of the Social Democratic Party in the 1 ...
claims to have come up with the name "Suwałki Gap" before his meeting with
Ursula von der Leyen Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen (; ; born 8 October 1958) is a German politician, serving as president of the European Commission since 2019. She served in the Cabinet of Germany, German federal government between 2005 and 2019, holding position ...
, then serving as the defence minister of Germany, in April 2015 to highlight the vulnerability of the area for the Baltic states.


Civilian interests


Russian corridor

The first time a special corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus (planned to go via Poland) was discussed during a 1990 meeting between Yuri Shemonov, a senior official in Kaliningrad Oblast, and
Nikolai Ryzhkov Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov (; ; 28 September 1929 – 28 February 2024) was a Russian politician. He served as the last Premier of the Soviet Union, chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union from 1985 to 1991 and was succeeded b ...
and
Mikhail Gorbachev Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev (2 March 1931 – 30 August 2022) was a Soviet and Russian politician who served as the last leader of the Soviet Union from 1985 to dissolution of the Soviet Union, the country's dissolution in 1991. He served a ...
,
Premier Premier is a title for the head of government in central governments, state governments and local governments of some countries. A second in command to a premier is designated as a deputy premier. A premier will normally be a head of govern ...
and
President of the Soviet Union The president of the Soviet Union (), officially the president of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (), abbreviated as president of the USSR (), was the executive head of state of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics from 15 March ...
, respectively. While Ryzhkov was supportive of the idea, Gorbachev vetoed the proposal, urging the other two men to "stop spreading panic". After the Soviet Union fell apart, Kaliningrad was cut off from Russia, thus the Russians sought to secure a land transit route from the exclave to mainland Russia through Belarus. After some initial preparations, including signing a treaty which obliged Poland and Russia to open a
border crossing Border control comprises measures taken by governments to monitor and regulate the movement of people, animals, and goods across land, air, and maritime borders. While border control is typically associated with international borders, it als ...
near
Gołdap Gołdap ( or variant ''Goldapp''; ) is a spa town in northeastern Poland, in the region of Masuria, seat of Gołdap County in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. It is located on the Gołdapa River, between the Szeskie Hills, Gołdap Lake and th ...
, the Russian government announced their intention to build a special "communication corridor" between the checkpoint and
Grodno Grodno, or Hrodna, is a city in western Belarus. It is one of the oldest cities in Belarus. The city is located on the Neman, Neman River, from Minsk, about from the Belarus–Poland border, border with Poland, and from the Belarus–Lithua ...
in Belarus, justifying the decision by the region's close economic ties with the country. Russia, which communicated the idea to the Polish side in 1994, additionally sought to bypass Lithuania, with which it had strained
diplomatic relations Diplomacy is the communication by representatives of state, intergovernmental, or non-governmental institutions intended to influence events in the international system.Ronald Peter Barston, ''Modern Diplomacy'', Pearson Education, 2006, p. ...
. Initially, the idea sparked little interest, but extensive discussions came in 1996, when
Boris Yeltsin Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin (1 February 1931 – 23 April 2007) was a Soviet and Russian politician and statesman who served as President of Russia from 1991 to 1999. He was a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) from 1961 to ...
,
President of Russia The president of Russia, officially the president of the Russian Federation (), is the executive head of state of Russia. The president is the chair of the State Council (Russia), Federal State Council and the President of Russia#Commander-in-ch ...
, declared he would negotiate with the Polish side to seek permission to build a
motorway A controlled-access highway is a type of highway that has been designed for high-speed vehicular traffic, with all traffic flow—ingress and egress—regulated. Common English terms are freeway, motorway, and expressway. Other similar terms ...
, citing high transit costs via Lithuania. Top Polish government officials rejected the proposal. Among the main reasons was the fact that among Poles, the proposal sounded too much like the
German German(s) may refer to: * Germany, the country of the Germans and German things **Germania (Roman era) * Germans, citizens of Germany, people of German ancestry, or native speakers of the German language ** For citizenship in Germany, see also Ge ...
request for an extraterritorial link through the
Polish Corridor The Polish Corridor (; ), also known as the Pomeranian Corridor, was a territory located in the region of Pomerelia (Pomeranian Voivodeship, Eastern Pomerania), which provided the Second Polish Republic with access to the Baltic Sea, thus d ...
just prior to its 1939
invasion of Poland The invasion of Poland, also known as the September Campaign, Polish Campaign, and Polish Defensive War of 1939 (1 September – 6 October 1939), was a joint attack on the Second Polish Republic, Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak R ...
, and was thus seen as unacceptable. This feeling was amplified by the persistent usage of the word "corridor" among Russian officials.
Aleksander Kwaśniewski Aleksander Kwaśniewski (; born 15 November 1954) is a Polish politician and journalist. He served the maximum two terms as the president of Poland from 1995 to 2005. His tenure as President was marked by modernization of Poland, rapid economi ...
, then-
president of Poland The president of Poland ( ), officially the president of the Republic of Poland (), is the head of state of Poland. His or her prerogatives and duties are determined in the Constitution of Poland. The president jointly exercises the executive ...
, sounded concerns about the environmental impact of the investment, while some politicians from the then-ruling coalition ( SLD-
PSL PSL may refer to: Sport *Pakistan Super League, a Twenty20 cricket league *Palau Soccer League, top division association football league in Palau *Pilipinas Super League, a professional basketball league *Philippine Super Liga, a defunct profes ...
) argued that the corridor would cause a deterioration of diplomatic relations between Poland and Lithuania. There have been reports that
Suwałki Voivodeship Suwałki Voivodeship () was an administrative division and local government in Poland from 1975 to 1998. In 1999 the Voidvodeship was divided in half and reassigned to two other Voivodeships – the eastern half to Podlaskie Voivodeship and the w ...
started talks about the corridor to alleviate its economic problems and even signed an agreement with Grodno Region authorities to promote its construction via a border crossing in
Lipszczany Lipszczany is a village in the administrative district of Gmina Lipsk, within Augustów County, Podlaskie Voivodeship, in north-eastern Poland, close to the border with Belarus. It lies approximately east of Lipsk, east of Augustów, and north ...
, but Cezary Cieślukowski, then-voivode of Suwałki who was seen by the media as supportive of the idea, denied having ever endorsed the proposal, and no proof for that (such as plans or cost estimates) was found in an internal party investigation. When GDDKiA, the Polish agency responsible for the maintenance of main roads, updated its plans for the expressway network in 1996, the proposed link was nowhere to be found. The topic returned in 2001–2002 when Poland and Lithuania were negotiating accession to the European Union. Russian citizens in Kaliningrad were facing the prospect of having to use
passport A passport is an official travel document issued by a government that certifies a person's identity and nationality for international travel. A passport allows its bearer to enter and temporarily reside in a foreign country, access local aid ...
s and apply for
visas Visa most commonly refers to: * Travel visa, a document that allows entry to a foreign country * Visa Inc., a US multinational financial and payment cards company ** Visa Debit card issued by the above company ** Visa Electron, a debit card ** Vi ...
to cross the border of the new EU member states, which sparked outrage in the Russian press. Therefore, Russia suggested that the
European Commission The European Commission (EC) is the primary Executive (government), executive arm of the European Union (EU). It operates as a cabinet government, with a number of European Commissioner, members of the Commission (directorial system, informall ...
grant a right to a 12-hour free transit for the citizens of the oblast through special corridors in Poland and Lithuania, but this proposal was rejected. Another proposal, with
sealed train A sealed train is one that travels internationally under customs and/or immigration seal, without its contents legally recognized as entering or leaving the nations traversed between the beginning and end of the journey or subject to any otherwis ...
s, also failed to gain traction; it was ultimately agreed to introduce special permits for Russian citizens travelling to/from Kaliningrad Oblast for transit through Lithuania (but not Poland), known as Facilitated Rail Transit Document (FRTD) and a Facilitated Transit Document (FTD) for rail and road trips, respectively. Kaliningrad Oblast has since been generally supplied by freight trains transiting through Lithuania. However, on 17 June 2022, in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania started blocking supplies of sanctioned items to the enclave via road or rail, citing EU's sanction guidance. That guidance was then clarified in a way that exempted rail traffic from the restrictions so long as the volume of deliveries remained within prior consumption volumes, but then
Šiaulių bankas Šiaulių bankas is a major commercial bank in Lithuania providing retail and commercial banking services. It has been designated in 2019 as a Significant Institution under the criteria of European Banking Supervision, and as a consequence is dir ...
, the bank servicing the transit payments, announced it would refuse to accept ruble payments from 15 August and any payments from Russian entities from 1 September. Transit remains possible via payments to other banks but, in September 2022, was expected to become more burdensome as payments for each freight service will be processed separately to comply with Lithuanian anti-fraud regulator's guidance. Another possibility remains for ships to go from
St. Petersburg Saint Petersburg, formerly known as Petrograd and later Leningrad, is the second-largest city in Russia after Moscow. It is situated on the River Neva, at the head of the Gulf of Finland on the Baltic Sea. The city had a population of 5,601, ...
to Kaliningrad, but this route may be unavailable in winter because the more northerly port may freeze.


EU economic infrastructure

The Suwałki Gap hosts several critical corridors because it is the only land route between the Baltic states and the rest of the European Union and NATO. A strategic communication artery, known in the
international E-road network The international E-road network is a numbering system for roads in Europe developed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). The network is numbered from E1 up and its roads cross national borders. It also reaches Central ...
as E67 or as ''Via Baltica'' ( expressway S61 on the Polish side and A5 highway on the Lithuanian part)'','' passes through the Suwałki Gap. It is part of the North Sea-Baltic Corridor (previously the Baltic-Adriatic Corridor), one of the core routes of the
Trans-European Transport Network The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is a planned network of roads, railways, airports and water infrastructure in the European Union. The TEN-T network is part of a wider system of Trans-European Networks (TENs), including a telecommun ...
(TEN-T) that connects Finland and the
Baltic states The Baltic states or the Baltic countries is a geopolitical term encompassing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All three countries are members of NATO, the European Union, the Eurozone, and the OECD. The three sovereign states on the eastern co ...
with the rest of Europe. As of June 2025, the Polish expressway is completed; the only segment not fully open yet is the bypass of
Łomża Łomża () is a city in north-eastern Poland, approximately to the north-east of Warsaw and west of Białystok. It is situated alongside the Narew river as part of the Podlaskie Voivodeship. It is the capital of Łomża County and has been the se ...
, expected to be unveiled in September 2025. On the Lithuanian side, most of the A5 highway is upgraded to a dual highway with grade-separated junctions. The last section of the motorway, that close to the border is slated to be completed by late 2025. The
Rail Baltica Rail Baltica is an under-construction rail infrastructure project that is intended to integrate the Baltic states in the European rail network. Its purpose is to provide passenger and freight service between participating countries and improve ra ...
project, currently under construction, will improve the existing connection between the Baltic states and the rest of the European Union by creating a new, unified
standard-gauge A standard-gauge railway is a railway with a track gauge of . The standard gauge is also called Stephenson gauge (after George Stephenson), international gauge, UIC gauge, uniform gauge, normal gauge in Europe, and SGR in East Africa. It is the ...
trunk line running across the Baltic states from Kaunas to Tallinn and eventually underneath the Gulf of Finland to Helsinki. The existing rail connection is only a single-track, non-electrified line that can only go to
Kaunas Kaunas (; ) is the second-largest city in Lithuania after Vilnius, the fourth largest List of cities in the Baltic states by population, city in the Baltic States and an important centre of Lithuanian economic, academic, and cultural life. Kaun ...
without changing
track gauge In rail transport, track gauge is the distance between the two rails of a railway track. All vehicles on a rail network must have Wheelset (rail transport), wheelsets that are compatible with the track gauge. Since many different track gauges ...
s. This is because Baltic state railways still use the wider
Russian gauge Russian(s) may refer to: *Russians (), an ethnic group of the East Slavic peoples, primarily living in Russia and neighboring countries *A citizen of Russia *Russian language, the most widely spoken of the Slavic languages *''The Russians'', a b ...
, while the vast majority of Polish rolling stock is adapted to the
standard gauge A standard-gauge railway is a railway with a track gauge of . The standard gauge is also called Stephenson gauge (after George Stephenson), international gauge, UIC gauge, uniform gauge, normal gauge in Europe, and SGR in East Africa. It is the ...
common in Western Europe. The Polish sections are expected to be ready by 2028, but as of February 2024 construction work in Poland is already delayed by 3 years and there is no guaranteed funding for the section between Ełk and the Polish-Lithuanian border. The
Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania (GIPL) is a gas pipeline between Poland and Lithuania. The pipeline was commissioned and started commercial operation on 1 May 2022. The length of the pipeline is and the natural gas can flow both direction ...
, which opened on 1 May 2022, is the only terrestrial link between the Baltic and Finnish
natural gas pipeline A pipeline is a system of pipes for long-distance transportation of a liquid or gas, typically to a market area for consumption. The latest data from 2014 gives a total of slightly less than of pipeline in 120 countries around the world. The Un ...
system and the rest of the European Union. Its strategic importance was the reason it was recognized as a Project of Common Interest by the EU. The
LitPol Link LitPol Link is an electricity link between Poland and Lithuania which connects the Baltic power systems to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area. It has a capacity of 500 MW and since 2025 operates in a synchronous regime. History In ...
is the route for the only land-based high voltage line between Poland and Lithuania, which was opened in late 2015. Another high-voltage line to Lithuania is yet in the planning stages, as the sea-based Harmony Link (through
Klaipėda Klaipėda ( ; ) is a city in Lithuania on the Baltic Sea coast. It is the List of cities in Lithuania, third-largest city in Lithuania, the List of cities in the Baltic states by population, fifth-largest city in the Baltic States, and the capi ...
) was found to be economically unfeasible. The Suwałki Gap is an important constraint on civilian airspace since the
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
began. Because of sanctions against Russia and Belarus (in the latter case imposed after Roman Protasevich's airplane was hijacked by the government while over its airspace), aviation from these countries may not fly through the European Union, including to Kaliningrad. However, Russia also banned EU carriers over its territory, and EU airlines were urged not to fly over Belarus. Thus the only feasible way for civilian planes to fly from the Baltic states or Finland southwards is through the Suwałki Gap, or over the Baltic Sea. File:E67 route through Suwalki Gap.png, The E67 route, gradually upgraded to expressway standards File:NowaMapaS61.svg, Progress on expressway S61 in Poland, leading to the Suwałki Gap, as of April 2024. Green: open. Red: under construction File:RBINFO (cropped).png, The planned
Rail Baltica Rail Baltica is an under-construction rail infrastructure project that is intended to integrate the Baltic states in the European rail network. Its purpose is to provide passenger and freight service between participating countries and improve ra ...
route File:Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania.svg, The Poland-Lithuania gas interconnection route File:Map of LitPol Link.jpg,
LitPol Link LitPol Link is an electricity link between Poland and Lithuania which connects the Baltic power systems to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area. It has a capacity of 500 MW and since 2025 operates in a synchronous regime. History In ...
, the high-voltage electricity line connecting Poland and Lithuania


Military considerations


History

Long before the Suwałki Gap became of concern to NATO, several army battles or operations occurred on the terrain. For example, during
Napoleon Napoleon Bonaparte (born Napoleone di Buonaparte; 15 August 1769 – 5 May 1821), later known by his regnal name Napoleon I, was a French general and statesman who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led Military career ...
's war in Russia, part of his army, which crossed into the country from the
Duchy of Warsaw The Duchy of Warsaw (; ; ), also known as the Grand Duchy of Warsaw and Napoleonic Poland, was a First French Empire, French client state established by Napoleon Bonaparte in 1807, during the Napoleonic Wars. It initially comprised the ethnical ...
, used the Suwałki Gap as a launching pad for the invasion and, by the beginning of 1813, when the remnants of his army retreated, it crossed the gap from
Kaunas Kaunas (; ) is the second-largest city in Lithuania after Vilnius, the fourth largest List of cities in the Baltic states by population, city in the Baltic States and an important centre of Lithuanian economic, academic, and cultural life. Kaun ...
towards
Warsaw Warsaw, officially the Capital City of Warsaw, is the capital and List of cities and towns in Poland, largest city of Poland. The metropolis stands on the Vistula, River Vistula in east-central Poland. Its population is officially estimated at ...
. Both battles of the Masurian Lakes during
World War I World War I or the First World War (28 July 1914 – 11 November 1918), also known as the Great War, was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War I, Allies (or Entente) and the Central Powers. Fighting to ...
passed or were directly waged on the territory. During the invasion of Poland, which started
World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...
, most of the action skirted the area, while in 1944, the
Red Army The Workers' and Peasants' Red Army, often shortened to the Red Army, was the army and air force of the Russian Soviet Republic and, from 1922, the Soviet Union. The army was established in January 1918 by a decree of the Council of People ...
simply advanced into East Prussia and no major battle occurred in the area. Poland and Lithuania joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1999 and 2004, respectively. On the one hand, this meant that the Kaliningrad exclave was surrounded by NATO states, but on the other, this created a
choke point In military strategy, a choke point (or chokepoint), or sometimes bottleneck, is a geographical feature on land such as a valley, defile or bridge, or maritime passage through a critical waterway such as a strait, which an armed force is for ...
for the military alliance as all troops supplied by land must pass through the Suwałki Gap. In the event of its capture, the Baltic states would be surrounded by Russia, Russian-controlled territories, and Belarus, a Russian ally. Even if Belarus or Russia are not physically present in the corridor, it is narrow enough for the short-range rockets stationed in either country to target any military supplies coming through the corridor, while alternative routes of delivery, i.e. by
sea A sea is a large body of salt water. There are particular seas and the sea. The sea commonly refers to the ocean, the interconnected body of seawaters that spans most of Earth. Particular seas are either marginal seas, second-order section ...
or air, are also threatened by the
anti-air Anti-aircraft warfare (AAW) is the counter to aerial warfare and includes "all measures designed to nullify or reduce the effectiveness of hostile air action".AAP-6 It encompasses surface-based, subsurface ( submarine-launched), and air-bas ...
and anti-ship missiles stationed in Kaliningrad Oblast. Due to its strategic importance for NATO and the Baltic states, it has been described as one of NATO's hot spots, its "
Achilles' heel An Achilles' heel (or Achilles heel) is a weakness despite overall strength, which can lead to downfall. While the mythological origin refers to a physical vulnerability, idiomatic references to other attributes or qualities that can lead to do ...
" and dubbed the modern version of the
Fulda Gap The Fulda Gap (), an area between the Hesse-Thuringian border, the former Inner German border, and Frankfurt am Main, contains two corridors of lowlands through which tanks might have driven in a surprise attack by the Soviets and their Warsaw P ...
. Initially, this vulnerability was of relatively little concern as, throughout most of the 1990s, Russia was stuck in a deep depression, which necessitated large-scale cuts to the country's military budget. Even though the army was of significant size, it was poorly equipped and had low military capabilities.
Russia–NATO relations Relations between the NATO military alliance and the Russian Federation were established in 1991 within the framework of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, Russia joined the Partnership for Peace program, and on 27 May 1997, the NA ...
were more cordial then, as Russia was not openly hostile to NATO, which was affirmed while signing the 1997 Founding Act, and it was thought that Russia would eventually become a
pacifist Pacifism is the opposition to war or violence. The word ''pacifism'' was coined by the French peace campaigner Émile Arnaud and adopted by other peace activists at the tenth Universal Peace Congress in Glasgow in 1901. A related term is ''a ...
democracy, decreasing its military and nuclear presence. NATO's commitment not to build any permanent bases beyond the
Oder The Oder ( ; Czech and ) is a river in Central Europe. It is Poland's second-longest river and third-longest within its borders after the Vistula and its largest tributary the Warta. The Oder rises in the Czech Republic and flows through wes ...
river therefore seemed reasonable.


Escalation of tensions

The qualitative and quantitative improvement in armaments started with the rule of
Vladimir Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 7 October 1952) is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, having previously served from 2000 to 2008. Putin also served as Prime Minister of Ru ...
. Short-range () Iskander missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, were installed in 2018. Additional installations were deployed in the late 2010s, including more
area denial weapon An area denial weapon is a war offensive and defensive and device used to prevent an adversary from occupying or traversing an area of land, sea or air. The specific method may not be totally effective in preventing passage, but is sufficient to ...
s, such as
K-300P Bastion-P The K-300P ''Bastion-P'' (NATO reporting name SS-C-5 Stooge) is a Russian mobile coastal defence missile system. The system was developed together with the Belarusian company '' Tekhnosoyuzproekt''. Design The main role of the Bastion-P is to en ...
and
P-800 Oniks The P-800 Oniks (; ), marketed in export as the Yakhont (; ), is a Soviet/Russian supersonic anti-ship cruise missile developed by NPO Mashinostroyeniya as a ramjet version of P-80 Zubr. Its GRAU designation is 3M55, the air launched Kh-61 vari ...
anti-ship missiles and
S-400 The S-400 Triumf ( – Triumf; translation: Triumph; NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler), previously known as the S-300 PMU-3, is a mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) system developed in the 1990s by Russia's NPO Almaz as an upgrade to the S ...
anti-air missiles. In general, the importance of the corridor among the Western nations is said to have been initially underestimated due to the fact that Western countries sought to normalise relations with Russia. Most of NATO's activities therefore concentrated on drills and exercises rather than deterrence. The shift in policy occurred gradually after Russia's aggression in Ukraine, which started in 2014. After the 2014 Wales summit and then the
2016 Warsaw summit The 2016 Warsaw Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was the 26th formal summit of the heads of state and heads of government of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, held at the National Stadium, Warsaw, National Stadium i ...
, NATO members agreed on more military presence in the eastern member states of the Alliance, which came to fruition as the
NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) is a NATO-allied forward-deployed defense and deterrence military force in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe. This posture in Northern Europe through Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and in Central Europe through ...
. In 2018, the Polish side proposed to station a permanent
armoured division A division is a large military unit or formation, usually consisting of between 10,000 and 25,000 soldiers. In most armies, a division is composed of several regiments or brigades; in turn, several divisions typically make up a corps. Histor ...
in the
Bydgoszcz Bydgoszcz is a city in northern Poland and the largest city in the historical region of Kuyavia. Straddling the confluence of the Vistula River and its bank (geography), left-bank tributary, the Brda (river), Brda, the strategic location of Byd ...
-
Toruń Toruń is a city on the Vistula River in north-central Poland and a World Heritage Sites of Poland, UNESCO World Heritage Site. Its population was 196,935 as of December 2021. Previously, it was the capital of the Toruń Voivodeship (1975–199 ...
area (dubbed " Fort Trump") with up to US$2 billion in financial support, but NATO did not agree to it as it was afraid it would potentially run afoul of the 1997 Founding Act, which, among other things, constrains NATO's ability to build permanent bases next to the Suwałki Gap. While the permanent military base ultimately did not appear, the military situation around the region has been steadily escalating, and deterrence tactics seem only to have increased the concentration of firepower on both sides. Several military drills, including Zapad 2017, Zapad 2021 and the Union Resolve 2022 exercises in Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast and others that were unexpected, and NATO's 2017 Iron Wolf exercises in Lithuania as well as some of the annual Operation Saber Strike operations, occurred in areas close to the Suwałki Gap. Around 20,000 soldiers riding 3,500 military vehicles participated in the Dragon 24 NATO drill in Northern Poland. The Russian forces did not leave Belarus after the 2022 exercises and invaded Ukraine from the north in February and March that year. As the war on NATO's eastern border unraveled, NATO dispatched more troops to its eastern flank, though its representatives said it would not establish permanent presence on its eastern borders. The situation around the area further intensified following Lithuania's declaration on banning the transit of sanctioned goods through its territory. As the security situation rapidly worsened on the east, the Lithuanian and
Iceland Iceland is a Nordic countries, Nordic island country between the Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between North America and Europe. It is culturally and politically linked with Europe and is the regi ...
ic ministers of foreign affairs said that Russia had effectively repudiated the 1997 agreement, which was also indirectly suggested by
Mircea Geoană Dan Mircea Geoană (; born 14 July 1958) is a Romanian politician and diplomat who served as the Secretary General of NATO, deputy secretary general of NATO between 2019 and 2024. He previously served as president of the Senate of Romania from D ...
, NATO's Deputy Secretary General. However, by the end of 2023, several assessments found that the threat has become much smaller after the invasion began. They suggested that Russian troops getting bogged down in eastern and southern Ukraine, accession of
Sweden Sweden, formally the Kingdom of Sweden, is a Nordic countries, Nordic country located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. It borders Norway to the west and north, and Finland to the east. At , Sweden is the largest Nordic count ...
and
Finland Finland, officially the Republic of Finland, is a Nordic country in Northern Europe. It borders Sweden to the northwest, Norway to the north, and Russia to the east, with the Gulf of Bothnia to the west and the Gulf of Finland to the south, ...
to NATO and a change in the alliance's tactics that saw more troops deployed on NATO's borders meant that Russia was much less likely to start another war.


Current standing of forces


NATO and its member states

As of spring 2022, units closest to the Suwałki Gap that belong to NATO or to its member states included: *900 German soldiers together with
Czech Czech may refer to: * Anything from or related to the Czech Republic, a country in Europe ** Czech language ** Czechs, the people of the area ** Czech culture ** Czech cuisine * One of three mythical brothers, Lech, Czech, and Rus *Czech (surnam ...
, Norwegian and
Dutch Dutch or Nederlands commonly refers to: * Something of, from, or related to the Netherlands ** Dutch people as an ethnic group () ** Dutch nationality law, history and regulations of Dutch citizenship () ** Dutch language () * In specific terms, i ...
troops, totalling about 1,600 personnel, alongside the
Mechanised Infantry Brigade Iron Wolf Infantry Brigade "Iron Wolf" ("Iron Wolf" Brigade) () is the core unit of the Lithuanian Army and forms the country's contribution to NATO collective defence. The name of the brigade relates to the Lithuanian mythical character from the medieva ...
, dispatched in a NATO multinational division in
Rukla Rukla is a small town in Kaunas County in central Lithuania. In 2011 it had a population of 2,098. Administrative centre of Rukla Eldership. The national Refugee Reception Centre hosts all refugees coming to the country. Military base Five d ...
on the Lithuanian side, from the border. The brigade is armed with
Leopard 2 The Leopard 2 is a third generation German main battle tank (MBT). Developed by Krauss-Maffei in the 1970s, the tank entered service in 1979 and replaced the earlier Leopard 1 as the main battle tank of the West German army. Various iterat ...
tanks, Marder
infantry fighting vehicle An infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), also known as a mechanized infantry combat vehicle (MICV), is a type of armoured fighting vehicle and armoured personnel carrier used to carry infantry into battle and provide direct fire, direct-fire suppo ...
s, and PzH-2000 self-propelled
howitzer The howitzer () is an artillery weapon that falls between a cannon (or field gun) and a mortar. It is capable of both low angle fire like a field gun and high angle fire like a mortar, given the distinction between low and high angle fire break ...
s. In June 2023, Defence Minister
Boris Pistorius Boris Ludwig Pistorius (; born 14 March 1960) is a German lawyer and politician of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) who has been serving as Federal Minister of Defence in the governments of successive Chancellors Olaf Scholz and Fri ...
announced that the Germans would increase their presence to 4,000 troops, but the whole brigade is only expected to come in 2027. A €300 million project is going to expand the premises of the military base. A subunit of the Iron Wolf brigade, the Grand Duchess Birutė Mechanized
Uhlan Uhlan (; ; ; ; ) is a type of light cavalry, primarily armed with a lance. The uhlans started as Grand Ducal Lithuanian Army, Lithuanian irregular cavalry, that were later also adopted by other countries during the 18th century, including Polis ...
Battalion, is stationed in
Alytus Alytus () is a city with Town privileges, municipal rights in southern Lithuania. It is the List of cities in Lithuania, sixth-largest city in Lithuania and the List of cities in the Baltic states by population, 14th-largest city in the Baltic ...
, from the Polish-Lithuanian border. Additionally, the military base in Rūdninkai Training Area, which is south of Vilnius and about from the Suwałki Gap, was ordered to be reactivated as a matter of urgency after the
Seimas The Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania (), or simply the Seimas ( ; ), is the unicameralism, unicameral legislative body of the Lithuania, Republic of Lithuania. The Seimas constitutes the legislative branch of Government of Lithuania, govern ...
passed a bill to that effect. The base was reopened in June 2022 and is capable of holding 3,000 soldiers. * An American
battalion A battalion is a military unit, typically consisting of up to one thousand soldiers. A battalion is commanded by a lieutenant colonel and subdivided into several Company (military unit), companies, each typically commanded by a Major (rank), ...
-sized group, 800 people, from the
185th Infantry Regiment 185th may refer to: *185th (2/1st West Riding) Brigade, formation of the Territorial Force of the British Army * 185th Air Refueling Squadron flies the KC-135 Stratotanker * 185th Air Refueling Wing (ARW), unit located at Sioux Gateway Airport, Iow ...
, as of mid-2022, together with the Polish 15th Mechanised Brigade, as well as 400 British
Royal Dragoons The Royal Dragoons (1st Dragoons) was a heavy cavalry regiment of the British Army. The regiment was formed in 1661 as the Tangier Horse. It served for three centuries and was in action during the First and the Second World Wars. It was amalgam ...
and some Romanian and Croatian troops. These troops are stationed near the Polish towns of
Orzysz Orzysz (English pronunciation , ) is a town in northeastern Poland, in the Pisz County, Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, with 7,512 inhabitants (2007). It is located on Orzysz Lake in the region of Masuria. A garrison of the Polish Armed Forces i ...
and Bemowo Piskie, about the same distance from the border as Rukla. The forces are armed with American
M1 Abrams The M1 Abrams () is a third-generation American main battle tank designed by Chrysler Defense (now General Dynamics Land Systems) and named for General Creighton Abrams. Conceived for modern armored ground warfare, it is one of the heavies ...
and Polish modified
T-72 The T-72 is a family of Soviet Union, Soviet main battle tanks that entered production in 1973. The T-72 was a development based on the T-64 using thought and design of the previous Object 167M. About 25,000 T-72 tanks have been built, and refu ...
tanks,
Stryker The Stryker is a family of Eight-wheel drive, eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicles derived from the Canadian LAV III. Stryker vehicles are produced by General Dynamics Land Systems-Canada (GDLS-C) for the United States Army in a plant in L ...
,
M3 Bradley The M3 Bradley cavalry fighting vehicle (CFV) is an American tracked Armoured reconnaissance, armored reconnaissance vehicle manufactured by BAE Systems Platforms & Services (formerly United Defense). A member of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle ...
and Polish BWP-1 infantry fighting vehicles, Croatian M-92 rockets and Romanian air defence systems. Brigades in both countries operate on a rotational basis. The Polish and Lithuanian host brigades signed an agreement for mutual cooperation in 2020, but, unlike with the operations with foreign forces, these are not subordinate to NATO command; * The 14th Anti-Tank Artillery Regiment, under
Polish Polish may refer to: * Anything from or related to Poland, a country in Europe * Polish language * Polish people, people from Poland or of Polish descent * Polish chicken * Polish brothers (Mark Polish and Michael Polish, born 1970), American twin ...
command, garrisoned in Suwałki and armed with Israeli Spike-LR missiles. The regiment was briefly degraded to a squadron as its equipment was outdated. Some other forces in the area under Polish command include an artillery regiment in
Węgorzewo Węgorzewo (until 1946 ; ) is a tourist town on the Angrapa River in northeastern Poland, within the historical region of Masuria. It is the seat of Węgorzewo County in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship and is located not far from the border ...
, a mechanised brigade in
Giżycko Giżycko (former or ''Łuczany''; ) is a town in northeastern Poland with 28,597 inhabitants as of December 2021. It is situated between Lake Kisajno and Lake Niegocin in the region of Masuria, within the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. It is ...
and an anti-air unit in
Gołdap Gołdap ( or variant ''Goldapp''; ) is a spa town in northeastern Poland, in the region of Masuria, seat of Gołdap County in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. It is located on the Gołdapa River, between the Szeskie Hills, Gołdap Lake and th ...
. * Up to 40,000 troops within
NATO Response Force The NATO Response Force (NRF) is a high-readiness NATO rapid deployment force comprising land, sea, air, and special forces units capable of being deployed quickly within short notice. The NRF comprises more than 500,000 troops. Its forces inc ...
, activated on 25 February 2022 following Russia's invasion in Ukraine, which are available on short notice. In June 2022,
Jens Stoltenberg Jens Stoltenberg (; born 16 March 1959) is a Norwegian politician from the Labour Party. Since 2025, he has been the Minister of Finance in the Støre Cabinet. He has previously been the prime minister of Norway and secretary general of NATO. ...
,
Secretary General of NATO The secretary general of NATO is the chief civil servant of the NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an intergovernmental military alliance with 32 member states. The officeholder is an international diplomat responsible for coordinat ...
, pledged more weapons and troops to the Baltic States, seeking to augment NATO's presence to a
brigade A brigade is a major tactical military unit, military formation that typically comprises three to six battalions plus supporting elements. It is roughly equivalent to an enlarged or reinforced regiment. Two or more brigades may constitute ...
in each of the Baltic states and Poland (3,000-5,000 troops in each country), while the NATO Response Force will be increased to 300,000 troops.


Russia and Belarus

Kaliningrad Oblast is a very heavily militarized area subordinate to the command of the
Western Military District The Western Military District () was a Military districts of Russia, military district of Russia, in existence from 2010 until its abolishment as a unitary military command on February 26, 2024, succeeded by the newly reconstituted Moscow Mil ...
. Until the
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
, the Western MD hosted the best equipment and army forces at Russian disposal. In 1997–2010, the whole oblast was organised as a special region under a unified command of all forces dispatched there. Kaliningrad is the headquarters of the
Baltic Fleet The Baltic Fleet () is the Naval fleet, fleet of the Russian Navy in the Baltic Sea. Established 18 May 1703, under Tsar Peter the Great as part of the Imperial Russian Navy, the Baltic Fleet is the oldest Russian fleet. In 1918, the fleet w ...
and the headquarters of the 11th Army Corps (
Russian Navy The Russian Navy is the Navy, naval arm of the Russian Armed Forces. It has existed in various forms since 1696. Its present iteration was formed in January 1992 when it succeeded the Navy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (which had i ...
), which has ample air defence capabilities and whose divisions have undergone extensive modernisation in the late 2010s. According to Konrad Muzyka, who authored a detailed study on the district's forces, the units stationed in Kaliningrad permit medium-intensity combat in the area without support from the Russian mainland. The town of Gusev, in the eastern part of the ''oblast'', just from the Vištytis tripoint, hosts the 79th Motor Rifle Brigade (
BMP-2 The BMP-2 (''Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty'', , literally "combat machine/vehicle f theinfantry") is an amphibious infantry fighting vehicle introduced in the 1980s in the Soviet Union, following on from the BMP-1 of the 1960s. Development his ...
s and 2S19 Msta self-propelled howitzers) and the 11th Tank Regiment (90 tanks, of which most are T-72B1s at least 23 are the more recent T-72B3s). Missile units are stationed on the Chernyakhovsk air base ( Iskander missile launchers), while the majority of air defence units ( Smerch and
BM-27 Uragan The BM-27 Uragan (; GRAU index 9P140) is a self-propelled 220 mm multiple rocket launcher designed in the Soviet Union to deliver cluster munitions. The system began its service with the Soviet Army in the late 1970s, and was its first spi ...
multiple rocket launchers) are located in the vicinity of Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad also hosts capabilities to conduct electronic warfare, in which the Russian forces have both inherited much experience from the Soviet times and earned it during
hybrid warfare Hybrid warfare was defined by Frank Hoffman in 2007 as the emerging simultaneous use of multiple types of warfare by flexible and sophisticated adversaries who understand that successful conflict requires a variety of forms designed to fit the goa ...
operations such as in
Donbas The Donbas (, ; ) or Donbass ( ) is a historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine. The majority of the Donbas is occupied by Russia as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The word ''Donbas'' is a portmanteau formed fr ...
. Russia has not officially confirmed whether it has
nuclear warheads A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission or atomic bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions (thermonuclear weapon), producing a nuclear expl ...
in the exclave, but Iskander missiles are known to be capable of carrying such weapons. In 2018, the
Federation of American Scientists The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is an American nonprofit global policy think tank with the stated intent of using science and scientific analysis to attempt to make the world more secure. FAS was founded in 1945 by a group of scient ...
published photos showing a weapons storage facility northwest of Kaliningrad being upgraded in a way that enables nuclear weapons storage. In addition to that, Arvydas Anušauskas, the Lithuanian minister of defence, claimed that Russia already has these in the exclave. Belarus's military command, while formally independent as a military command of a sovereign state, has organisationally aligned itself with the Russian command and is in many respects wholly or substantially dependent on Russian defence institutions and contractors, while persistent underinvestment in its own military and deepening ties with its eastern neighbour left the military with low offensive capabilities, with the only feasible role being that of support of the main Russian forces. For instance, the countries share the air defence system, including its command. There are relatively few units on the Belarusian side - the headquarters of the Western Operational Command (one of the two in Belarus) as well as the 6th Mechanised Brigade is in Grodno ( S-300 anti-air missiles), while air operations may be conducted from the military air base in
Lida Lida is a city in Grodno Region, western Belarus, located west of Minsk. It serves as the administrative center of Lida District. As of 2025, it has a population of 103,262. Etymology The name ''Lida'' arises from its Lithuanian name ''Ly ...
. They have received some Russian reinforcements ahead of Zapad-2021 exercises, including more S-300 missiles in Grodno, and in early 2022, when S-400 missiles were installed in Gomel Region. In May 2022,
Alexander Lukashenko Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko (also transliterated as Alyaksandr Ryhoravich Lukashenka; born 30 August 1954) is a Belarusian politician who has been the first and only president of Belarus since the office's establishment in 1994, making hi ...
announced that he had bought Iskanders and S-400 missiles from the Russians.


Strategy


Attack

There is broad consensus among Western military
think tank A think tank, or public policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governme ...
s that any hypothetical attack on NATO would involve an attempt to capture the Suwałki Gap and therefore to surround the Baltic states. The reasons for the hypothetical attack are seen not to be primarily the occupation of the three former Soviet republics by Russia but to sow distrust in NATO's capabilities, to discredit the military alliance and to assert Russia's position as one of the major military powers. A possible scenario for such a move was voiced by , a retired Russian colonel and state TV
pundit A pundit is a person who offers opinion in an authoritative manner on a particular subject area (typically politics, the social sciences, technology or sport), usually through the mass media. The term pundit describes both women and men, altho ...
, who suggested that the Russians could take over the Suwałki Gap as well as the Swedish island of
Gotland Gotland (; ; ''Gutland'' in Gutnish), also historically spelled Gottland or Gothland (), is Sweden's largest island. It is also a Provinces of Sweden, province/Counties of Sweden, county (Swedish län), Municipalities of Sweden, municipality, a ...
while jamming NATO's radio signals, in order to establish effective military control over all possible supply routes to the Baltic states. Another summary was presented by Franz-Stefan Gady of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is an international research institute or think tank focusing on defence and security issues. Since 1997, its headquarters have been at Arundel House in London. It has offices on four co ...
, where he suggested that Russia would capture the Suwałki Gap and then force NATO to back down using the threat of deploying nuclear weapons. Despite being shorter, the Polish side of the Suwałki Gap is unlikely to be used as the area of main concentration of these forces, according to these experts. A 2019 Russian paper indicated that the potential attack cutting off the Baltic states from NATO could be held north of the Suwałki Gap, in south-western Lithuania, due to better efficiencies for the Russian forces; the same route was assumed in Zapad 2017 and Zapad 2021 military exercises. This is also an area of attack deemed more favourable by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and the
Swedish Defence Research Agency The Swedish Defence Research Agency (, FOI; literal translation: ''Total Defence Research Institute'') is a government agency in Sweden for total defence research and development. FOI has its headquarters in Kista (Stockholm). Other FOI offic ...
(FOI) papers, as the terrain is flatter and less forested and thus easier for heavier troops. Faustyna Klocek was one of the few proposing that the attack would lie over Polish territory. Some analysts suggest another theory, namely that the importance of the Suwałki Gap is overblown. CNA's Michael Kofman compared the Suwałki Gap's to a "
MacGuffin In fiction, a MacGuffin (sometimes McGuffin) is an object, device, or event that is necessary to the plot and the motivation of the characters, but insignificant, unimportant, or irrelevant in itself. The term was originated by Angus MacPhail fo ...
" (by itself unimportant but what he argues could be part of a frontline stretching for hundreds of kilometres) and arguing that previous analyses, which were necessarily limited, relied on a simplified view of the Russian military and did not sufficiently analyse its
doctrine Doctrine (from , meaning 'teaching, instruction') is a codification (law), codification of beliefs or a body of teacher, teachings or instructions, taught principles or positions, as the essence of teachings in a given branch of knowledge or in a ...
as a whole. Franz-Stefan Gady, on the other hand, opined that if Russia's goal were to present a ''
fait accompli Many words in the English vocabulary are of French language, French origin, most coming from the Anglo-Norman language, Anglo-Norman spoken by the upper classes in England for several hundred years after the Norman conquest of England, Norman ...
'' situation, it would be easier for Russia to capture any Baltic state rather than specifically the Suwałki Gap because the Russians would have to defend it against Poles and possibly Germans instead of the small armies of the Baltic states. Alexander Lanoszka of
Chatham House The Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, is a British think tank based in London, England. Its stated mission is "to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous, and just world". It ...
says that Russia has no interest in closing the gap, as the transit agreements are already good enough and invading NATO would create as many problems for Russia as NATO would have. Fredrik Westerlund (FOI) had a similar point of view. During the migrant crisis on the eastern border of NATO and EU, there were concerns voiced by NATO and Ukrainian intelligence officials that Belarus would send migrants to the Suwałki Gap in order to destabilise the area, which in turn would give a pretext for Russia to introduce "peacekeeping" troops. The Polish government's fear that Russia could potentially open up a migrant route via Kaliningrad Oblast culminated in a decision to build a fence on the border with the exclave, similar to the one Poland erected on the Belarusian border the previous year. To some extent, these fears were justified after the
Wagner Group The Wagner Group (), officially known as PMC Wagner (, ), is a Russian state-funded private military company (PMC) controlled 2023 Wagner Group plane crash, until 2023 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of Russia's president Vladimir Pu ...
aborted the rebellion in Russia and was thus exiled to Belarus. The mercenaries started training Belarusian soldiers in close proximity to the Polish border near the vulnerable area, which prompted the
Polish Armed Forces The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland (, ; abbreviated SZ RP), also called the Polish Armed Forces and popularly called in Poland (, roughly "the Polish Military"—abbreviated ''WP''), are the national Military, armed forces of the Poland, ...
to close some of the border crossings and send 10,000 reinforcement troops. Some of the initial assessments were grim about the prospect of the Baltic states. In 2016, the
RAND Corporation The RAND Corporation, doing business as RAND, is an American nonprofit global policy think tank, research institute, and public sector consulting firm. RAND engages in research and development (R&D) in several fields and industries. Since the ...
ran simulations that suggested that with the NATO forces available at the time and despite less military presence in the area than in the Soviet times, an unexpected attack would have Russian troops enter or approach
Riga Riga ( ) is the capital, Primate city, primate, and List of cities and towns in Latvia, largest city of Latvia. Home to 591,882 inhabitants (as of 2025), the city accounts for a third of Latvia's total population. The population of Riga Planni ...
and
Tallinn Tallinn is the capital city, capital and List of cities in Estonia, most populous city of Estonia. Situated on a Tallinn Bay, bay in north Estonia, on the shore of the Gulf of Finland of the Baltic Sea, it has a population of (as of 2025) and ...
in 36–60 hours from the moment of the invasion. The think tank attributed the swift advance to the tactical advantage in the region, easier logistics for Russian troops, better maneuverability and an advantage in heavy equipment on Russia's side. In general, the Russian Armed Forces, according to NATO's expectations, will try to overwhelm the Baltic states, cut off its only land route to the rest of NATO and force a ''
fait accompli Many words in the English vocabulary are of French language, French origin, most coming from the Anglo-Norman language, Anglo-Norman spoken by the upper classes in England for several hundred years after the Norman conquest of England, Norman ...
'' situation before the Alliance's reinforcements are able to come by land (air reinforcements are much more expensive and are vulnerable to surface-to-air strikes), only to face a dilemma between surrendering the area to the invader and directly confronting Russian troops, potentially escalating the war to a nuclear conflict. Ben Hodges, a retired US Army general who served as a high-ranking NATO commander and who co-authored a paper published by the CEPA on the defence of the Suwałki Gap, said in 2018 that the Suwałki Gap was an area where "many (of) NATO's ..weaknesses converge . Following major setbacks in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hodges revised his opinion towards a more positive tone, saying that NATO was much better prepared and could hold control over the area in case of an attack, particularly since Sweden and Finland would, in his opinion, likely help NATO despite at the time not being members of the alliance. An Estonian MP estimated that Finland's membership in NATO, for which the accession protocol was signed in 2022, would make the security situation of the Baltic states more tenable thanks to an alternative corridor lying through the waters of the
Gulf of Finland The Gulf of Finland (; ; ; ) is the easternmost arm of the Baltic Sea. It extends between Finland to the north and Estonia to the south, to Saint Petersburg—the second largest city of Russia—to the east, where the river Neva drains into it. ...
, which could be enforced using the relatively robust
Finnish Navy The Finnish Navy ( , ) is one of the branches of the Finnish Defence Forces. The navy employs 2,300 people and about 4,300 conscripts are trained each year. Finnish Navy vessels are given the ship prefix "FNS", short for "Finnish Navy ship", but ...
. It was also suggested that Swedish accession to NATO would finally grant NATO some
strategic depth Strategic depth is a term in military literature that broadly refers to the distances between the front lines or battle sectors and the combatants' industrial core areas, capital cities, heartlands, and other key centers of population or milita ...
in the area and otherwise facilitate the defence of the Baltic states. There appears to be strong support for Russia's invasion of the area among the Russians. A March 2022 survey by a Ukrainian pollster, which was concealing its identity while soliciting answers and which was asking questions using the Russian government-preferred rhetoric, reported that a large majority of Russians could support an invasion of another country should the "special military operation", as Russia officially calls the invasion of Ukraine, succeed, and that the most support for that invasion (three-quarters of those who did not abstain from an answer, and almost half of all respondents) would be against Poland, followed by the Baltic states.


Defence

While the Suwałki Gap is a choke point, military analysts suggest that the fact that the region has abundant thick forests, streams and lakes means that the landscape facilitates defence against an invading force. Additionally, the soil in the area makes it very hard to operate under rainy conditions as off-road areas or roads without a hard surface become impassable
mud Mud (, or Middle Dutch) is loam, silt or clay mixed with water. Mud is usually formed after rainfall or near water sources. Ancient mud deposits hardened over geological time to form sedimentary rock such as shale or mudstone (generally cal ...
. The Center for European Policy Analysis paper points out that the hilly and more forested terrain of the Polish part of the Suwałki Gap favours actions on the defensive side, such as
ambush An ambush is a surprise attack carried out by people lying in wait in a concealed position. The concealed position itself or the concealed person(s) may also be called an "". Ambushes as a basic military tactics, fighting tactic of soldi ...
es and holding entrenched positions; at the same time, low density of roads that are largely not designed for carrying heavy cargo means that the few that remain available for the military may be easily blocked. The natural defences largely eliminate the need for additional military fortifications, and some of them, such as the one in
Bakałarzewo Bakałarzewo (; ) is a village in Suwałki County, Podlaskie Voivodeship, in north-eastern Poland. It is the seat of the gmina (administrative district) called Gmina Bakałarzewo. It lies approximately west of Suwałki and north of the regional ...
, have been converted to private museums. On the other hand, this also means that once Russia is in possession of the corridor, which could happen if NATO reinforcements arrive late, it will be very hard to eject the Russians from the area. These reports say that the conditions are unfavourable for heavy equipment, particularly in bad weather, though John R. Deni of the
Strategic Studies Institute The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is the U.S. Army's institute for strategic and national security research and analysis. It is part of the U.S. Army War College The United States Army War College (USAWC) is a United States Army, U.S. ...
argued the terrain was generally fine for a tank offensive. The current Polish military doctrine under Mariusz Błaszczak, the
Polish Minister of Defence The Ministry of National Defence (Polish: ''Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej'' '', MON'' ) is a office of government in Poland headed by the Minister of National Defence. It is responsible for the organisation and management of the Polish Armed F ...
(MoD), is to concentrate the units close to the
Russian Russian(s) may refer to: *Russians (), an ethnic group of the East Slavic peoples, primarily living in Russia and neighboring countries *A citizen of Russia *Russian language, the most widely spoken of the Slavic languages *''The Russians'', a b ...
and
Belarusian Belarusian may refer to: * Something of, or related to Belarus * Belarusians, people from Belarus, or of Belarusian descent * A citizen of Belarus, see Demographics of Belarus * Belarusian language * Belarusian culture * Belarusian cuisine * Byelor ...
borders in order to wage a defensive campaign in a similar way to the one Poland was conducting in September 1939. There were two war games made to verify the scenario. In the first one, made in 2019, the US
Marine Corps War College The Marine Corps War College (MCWAR), is the senior school of the Marine Corps University, providing Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) to selected United States military officers, civilian Government officials, and international mi ...
modelled a hypothetical scenario of
World War III World War III, also known as the Third World War, is a hypothetical future global conflict subsequent to World War I (1914–1918) and World War II (1939–1945). It is widely predicted that such a war would involve all of the great powers, ...
. The other one, codenamed -20, was conducted by the Polish War Studies Academy on MoD's request in 2020. Most of its assumptions remain confidential, but it is known that they include units with yet-to-be-delivered upgraded equipment that try to endure 22 days of defence against an invading force and, similarly to the American model, the military activities start in the Suwałki Gap and Poland tries to defend
Eastern Poland Eastern Poland () is a macroregion in Poland comprising the Lublin Voivodeship, Lublin, Podkarpackie Voivodeship, Subcarpathian, Podlaskie Voivodeship, Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship, Świętokrzyskie, and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, Wa ...
at all cost. Both results were catastrophic: in the American simulation, Polish units would incur about 60,000 casualties in the first day of war, and NATO and Russia would fare a battle that would prove very bloody to both sides, losing about half of the participating forces within 72 hours. Zima-20's results, which are interpreted with some dose of caution, showed that by day 4 of the invasion, the Russians already advanced to the
Vistula The Vistula (; ) is the longest river in Poland and the ninth-longest in Europe, at in length. Its drainage basin, extending into three other countries apart from Poland, covers , of which is in Poland. The Vistula rises at Barania Góra i ...
river and fighting in
Warsaw Warsaw, officially the Capital City of Warsaw, is the capital and List of cities and towns in Poland, largest city of Poland. The metropolis stands on the Vistula, River Vistula in east-central Poland. Its population is officially estimated at ...
was underway, while by day 5, the Polish ports were rendered unusable for reinforcements or occupied, the
Navy A navy, naval force, military maritime fleet, war navy, or maritime force is the military branch, branch of a nation's armed forces principally designated for naval warfare, naval and amphibious warfare; namely, lake-borne, riverine, littoral z ...
and the
Air Force An air force in the broadest sense is the national military branch that primarily conducts aerial warfare. More specifically, it is the branch of a nation's armed services that is responsible for aerial warfare as distinct from an army aviati ...
were obliterated despite NATO's assistance, while the Polish units dispatched close to the border could lose as much as 60-80% of personnel and materiel. Very few locals are expected to endorse an invasion, in contrast to what happened in Crimea in 2014, as the influence of the Russians in the area is not significant; that said, Daniel Michalski's survey found that the region's local population is inadequately prepared for a hypothetical military conflict and that the area has next to no civilians immediately ready to engage in combat. Regional tensions are such that some tourists are afraid to go there, though Andrzej Sęk and retired Col. Kazimierz Kuczyński say that such fears are likely unfounded as Russia's resources are being expended in Ukraine. Additionally, the Russians may want to use the historic tensions between Poland and Lithuania to set them against each other.


= Proposed solutions

= NATO's military doctrine assumes that its member states would have to hold the invasion for as long as NATO needs to send reinforcements to the attacked states, and in the meantime, NATO would operate on the terrain using tripwire forces dispatched in the area. There is no consensus about the right kind of forces and their mode of deployment near the Suwałki Gap that would best fit the doctrine, though the predominant thought goes that at least some forces or money to improve infrastructure should be sent to Poland. Among the analysts that took into account the Suwałki Gap vulnerability in their reports or opinion pieces, the majority argued that some form of permanent U.S. military presence in Poland should exist, and most of the reports agreed that the NATO (or American) units should be as mobile as practically possible. The
Warsaw Institute The Warsaw Institute is a Polish nonprofit think tank specializing in geopolitics and international affairs. Founded in 2014, the institute's primary goal is to strengthen the relationship between the United States and Poland. Topics of interest ...
argued that while it would be costly to maintain, the military base proposed by Poland in 2018 would be an effective deterrent for Russia and would ensure quick dispatches of U.S. forces to the Suwałki Gap if needed. Hunzeker and Lanoszka say that fears over the bottleneck are exaggerated, as are fears over Russian war against NATO, and they conclude that nothing should constrain the Alliance from attacking Kaliningrad Oblast or Belarus if the latter engages in the conflict, too. They advocate for a permanent presence of U.S. military but with units dispersed all over Poland instead of one big military base, and crafted in a way that avoids as much Russian rebuke as possible. Lanoszka separately suggests troops dispatched to Russian-minority areas in
Estonia Estonia, officially the Republic of Estonia, is a country in Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland across from Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea across from Sweden, to the south by Latvia, and to the east by Ru ...
and
Latvia Latvia, officially the Republic of Latvia, is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is one of the three Baltic states, along with Estonia to the north and Lithuania to the south. It borders Russia to the east and Belarus to t ...
instead, as he believes Russia is more likely to make a limited incursion on these areas. Another report, by the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), also suggested a permanent presence of one
brigade A brigade is a major tactical military unit, military formation that typically comprises three to six battalions plus supporting elements. It is roughly equivalent to an enlarged or reinforced regiment. Two or more brigades may constitute ...
of NATO troops in each of the Baltic states. Hodges ''et al.'', writing for CEPA, in principle supported an increased permanent presence of U.S. forces (including a divisional headquarters) but also said that NATO forces must be more mobile so that Russian troops have no chance to avoid the tripwire units. The report also recommended that more effort should be put into improving transport capabilities and reducing red tape between NATO's member states, noting that defending the Suwałki Gap is a much different challenge from that of the
Cold War The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...
-era Fulda Gap. John R. Deni of the SSI echoed CEPA paper's arguments and argued that since Russia deployed a large contingent of Russian troops together with modern arms in Belarus just prior to the beginning of the full-scale
Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
, NATO should disregard the 1997 Founding Act and start a dramatic increase of armaments and troop numbers near the Suwałki Gap and in the Baltic states. Some experts argued the opposite, i.e. that increased NATO presence may be detrimental for NATO. Nikolai Sokov of the
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies James may refer to: People * James (given name) * James (surname) * James (musician), aka Faruq Mahfuz Anam James, (born 1964), Bollywood musician * James, brother of Jesus * King James (disambiguation), various kings named James * Prince Ja ...
, writing for the conservative outlet ''
The National Interest ''The National Interest'' (''TNI'') is an American bimonthly international relations magazine edited by American journalist Jacob Heilbrunn and published by the Center for the National Interest, a public policy think tank based in Washington, ...
'', criticised the recommendations for ramping up military presence, arguing that Russia and NATO should learn to live with their own vulnerabilities in order to prevent an
arms race An arms race occurs when two or more groups compete in military superiority. It consists of a competition between two or more State (polity), states to have superior armed forces, concerning production of weapons, the growth of a military, and ...
. Some people, including
Dmitri Trenin Dmitri Vitalyevich Trenin () is a member of . He was the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a Russian think tank. A former colonel of Russian military intelligence, Trenin served for 21 years in the Soviet Army and Russian Ground Forces, ...
of
Carnegie Moscow Center The Carnegie Moscow Center () was a Moscow-based think tank that focuses on domestic and foreign policy. It was established in 1994 as a regional affiliate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It was the number one think tank in Cen ...
, said this had already been happening due to NATO's increased presence in the area. James J. Coyle of the
Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council is an American think tank in the field of international affairs, favoring Atlanticism, founded in 1961. It manages sixteen regional centers and functional programs related to international security and global economic prosp ...
similarly argued that
the West West is a cardinal direction or compass point. West or The West may also refer to: Geography and locations Global context * The Western world * Western culture and Western civilization in general * The Western Bloc, countries allied with NAT ...
should not escalate by sending more troops to the immediate vicinity of the Suwałki Gap, but instead rely on efficient logistics in case of war. Viljar Veebel and Zdzisław Śliwa, on the other hand, proposed that NATO should either deploy as many troops as it can while not paying attention to Russia's complaints about that or attempt to convince them (by escalating elsewhere, for example) not to reinforce their troops near the Suwałki Gap using means other than deterrence.


See also

*
Russia–NATO relations Relations between the NATO military alliance and the Russian Federation were established in 1991 within the framework of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, Russia joined the Partnership for Peace program, and on 27 May 1997, the NA ...
*
Salient (military) A salient, also known as a bulge, is a battlefield feature that projects into enemy territory. The salient is surrounded by the enemy on multiple sides, making the troops occupying the salient vulnerable. The opponent's front line that borders ...
*
Suwałki Region Suwałki Region ( ; ) is a historical region around the city of Suwałki in northeastern Poland near the border with Lithuania. It encompasses the powiats of Augustów, Suwałki, and Sejny, and roughly corresponds to the southern part of the for ...
* Orenburg corridor Other NATO vulnerabilities: *
Focșani Gate The Focșani Gate (; or ) is a militarily and strategically vulnerable area in Romania and NATO. Located in the northeastern part of the Wallachian Plain, it spans an area of east to west and about north to south on the territory of Galați, ...
*
GIUK gap The GIUK gap (sometimes written G-I-UK) is an area in the northern Atlantic Ocean that forms a naval choke point. Its name is an acronym for ''Greenland, Iceland'', and the ''United Kingdom'', the gap being the two stretches of open ocean amo ...
*
Fulda Gap The Fulda Gap (), an area between the Hesse-Thuringian border, the former Inner German border, and Frankfurt am Main, contains two corridors of lowlands through which tanks might have driven in a surprise attack by the Soviets and their Warsaw P ...


Explanatory notes


References


Further reading

* * * * * * * * ; publicly accessible version
online
* {{DEFAULTSORT:Suwalki Gap Augustów County Baltic states Military history of Poland Military of Belarus Military of Russia Military strategy NATO Suwałki County Gap Geopolitical corridors