Popularized by

Richard Dawkins Richard Dawkins (born 26 March 1941) is a British evolutionary biology, evolutionary biologist, zoologist, science communicator and author. He is an Oxford fellow, emeritus fellow of New College, Oxford, and was Simonyi Professor for the Publ ...

in '' The God Delusion,'' the spectrum of theistic probability is a way of categorizing one's belief regarding the

probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...

of the existence of a deity.

Atheism, theism, and agnosticism

J. J. C. Smart argues that the distinction between

atheism Atheism, in the broadest sense, is an absence of belief in the Existence of God, existence of Deity, deities. Less broadly, atheism is a rejection of the belief that any deities exist. In an even narrower sense, atheism is specifically the ...

and

agnosticism Agnosticism is the view or belief that the existence of God, the divine, or the supernatural is either unknowable in principle or unknown in fact. (page 56 in 1967 edition) It can also mean an apathy towards such religious belief and refer t ...

is unclear, and many people who have passionately described themselves as agnostics were in fact atheists. He writes that this mischaracterization is based on an unreasonable

philosophical skepticism Philosophical skepticism (UK spelling: scepticism; from Ancient Greek, Greek σκέψις ''skepsis'', "inquiry") is a family of philosophical views that question the possibility of knowledge. It differs from other forms of skepticism in that ...

that would not allow us to make any claims to knowledge about the world. He proposes instead the following analysis:

Let us consider the appropriateness or otherwise of someone (call him '
Philo Philo of Alexandria (; ; ; ), also called , was a Hellenistic Jewish philosopher who lived in Alexandria, in the Roman province of Egypt. The only event in Philo's life that can be decisively dated is his representation of the Alexandrian J ...
') describing himself as a theist, atheist or agnostic. I would suggest that if Philo estimates the various plausibilities to be such that on the evidence before him the probability of theism comes out near to one he should describe himself as a theist and if it comes out near zero he should call himself an atheist, and if it comes out somewhere in the middle he should call himself an agnostic. There are no strict rules about this classification because the borderlines are vague. If need be, like a middle-aged man who is not sure whether to call himself bald or not bald, he should explain himself more fully.

Dawkins' formulation

Richard Dawkins 35th American Atheists Convention

In '' The God Delusion'',

posits that "the existence of God is a scientific hypothesis like any other." He goes on to propose a continuous "spectrum of probabilities" between two extremes of opposite certainty, which can be represented by seven " milestones". Dawkins suggests definitive statements to summarize one's place along the spectrum of theistic probability. These "milestones" are: #Strong theist. 100%

of God. In the words of

Carl Jung Carl Gustav Jung ( ; ; 26 July 1875 – 6 June 1961) was a Swiss psychiatrist, psychotherapist, and psychologist who founded the school of analytical psychology. A prolific author of Carl Jung publications, over 20 books, illustrator, and corr ...

: "I do not believe, I know." #'' De facto'' theist. Very high probability but short of 100%. "I don't know for certain, but I strongly believe in God and live my life on the assumption that he is there." #Leaning towards theism. Higher than 50% but not very high. "I am very uncertain, but I am inclined to believe in God." #Completely impartial. Exactly 50%. "

God's existence The existence of God is a subject of debate in the philosophy of religion and theology. A wide variety of arguments for and against the existence of God (with the same or similar arguments also generally being used when talking about the exis ...

and non-existence are exactly equiprobable." #Leaning towards atheism. Lower than 50% but not very low. "I do not know whether God exists but I'm inclined to be skeptical." #''De facto'' atheist. Very low probability, but short of zero. "I don't know for certain but I think God is very improbable, and I live my life on the assumption that he is not there." #Strong atheist. "I know there is no God, with the same conviction as Jung knows there is one." Dawkins argues that while there appear to be plenty of individuals that would place themselves as "1" due to the strictness of religious doctrine against doubt, most atheists do not consider themselves "7" because atheism arises from a lack of evidence and evidence can always change a thinking person's mind. In print, Dawkins self-identified as a "6". When interviewed by

Bill Maher William MaherStated on ''Finding Your Roots'', January 12, 2016, PBS; on a series that lists "Jr." and "Sr." distinctions, Bill Maher's birth name was listed simply as William Maher, while his father was William Aloysius Maher Jr., and his pa ...

and later by Anthony Kenny, he suggested "6.9" to be more accurate.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Spectrum Of Theistic Probability Richard Dawkins Philosophy and atheism Theism Applied probability

Atheism, theism, and agnosticism

Dawkins' formulation

See also

References