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The societal effects of
negligible senescence Negligible senescence is a term coined by biogerontology, biogerontologist Caleb Finch to denote organisms that do not exhibit evidence of biological aging (senescence), such as measurable reductions in their reproductive capability, measurable fu ...
considers a scenario where negligible senescence is achieved on a societal wide level in humans. There is much controversy about the realistic timeline of such a scenario. The predictions vary in time starting from 2037 till later than the 21st century. The effects of negligible senescence has a profound impact on economy, climate,
demographics Demography () is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration. Demographic analysis examin ...
and impacts
social structures In the social sciences, social structure is the aggregate of patterned social arrangements in society that are both emergent from and determinant of the actions of individuals. Likewise, society is believed to be grouped into structurally rel ...
. The baseline scenario ''
ceteris paribus ' (also spelled ') (Classical ) is a Latin phrase, meaning "other things equal"; some other English translations of the phrase are "all other things being equal", "other things held constant", "all else unchanged", and "all else being equal". ...
'' of negligible senescence is more
population growth Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. The World population, global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2025. Actual global human population growth amounts to aroun ...
while a larger healthier
labor force In macroeconomics, the workforce or labour force is the sum of people either working (i.e., the employed) or looking for work (i.e., the unemployed): \text = \text + \text Those neither working in the marketplace nor looking for work are out ...
would spur economic growth.


Definition and characteristics

Senescence Senescence () or biological aging is the gradual deterioration of Function (biology), functional characteristics in living organisms. Whole organism senescence involves an increase in mortality rate, death rates or a decrease in fecundity with ...
is defined as the gradual deterioration of functional characteristics. The word senescence can either refer to cellular senescence or to senescence of a whole
organism An organism is any life, living thing that functions as an individual. Such a definition raises more problems than it solves, not least because the concept of an individual is also difficult. Many criteria, few of them widely accepted, have be ...
. Negligible senescence is therefore defined as the lack of senescence or a very small amount of senescence. Which implies that mortality and
morbidity A disease is a particular abnormal condition that adversely affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism and is not immediately due to any external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are asso ...
from most causes is eliminated. The term was introduced by biogerentologist Caleb Finch to denote organisms that do not exhibit evidence of
biological aging Senescence () or biological aging is the gradual deterioration of functional characteristics in living organisms. Whole organism senescence involves an increase in death rates or a decrease in fecundity with increasing age, at least in the l ...
and was further popularized by gerontologist
Aubrey de Grey Aubrey David Nicholas Jasper de Grey (; born 20 April 1963) is an English biomedical gerontologist. He is the author of ''The Mitochondrial Free Radical Theory of Aging'' (1999) and co-author of '' Ending Aging'' (2007). De Grey is known for ...
.


Proximity of a negligible senescence society

The timeline wherein humanity will achieve a negligible senescence scenario is unclear. For instance, in the Worldbank projections of demographics until 2050 death rate per 1,000 is increasing year-on-year thus implying no projection of negligible senescence before 2050. Although visionaries like
Yuval Noah Harari Yuval Noah Harari ( ; born 1976) is an Israeli medievalist, military historian, public intellectual, and popular science writer. He currently serves as professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His first bestse ...
do mention the possibility of a negligible senescence society Noah also remarks that he seems this is not likely to happen in the 21st century. Only a few people have publicly announced that they deem negligible senescence likely in the 21st century, such as Aubrey de Grey, founder of the
SENS Research Foundation The SENS Research Foundation is a non-profit organization that does research programs and public relations work for the application of regenerative medicine to aging. It was founded in 2009, located in Mountain View, California, US. The organizat ...
.


Societal impact


Demographics

The impact of negligible senescence on worldwide demographics is widely accepted. Coale noted that a shift toward near-
immortality Immortality is the concept of eternal life. Some species possess "biological immortality" due to an apparent lack of the Hayflick limit. From at least the time of the Ancient Mesopotamian religion, ancient Mesopotamians, there has been a con ...
would have the same long-term impact on population growth as a 10% increase in the fertility rate. As the death rate per thousand people will drop from roughly 10 per thousand (1% per year) to near zero this would thus add an extra 1% population growth each year. Although aging populations in
population pyramid A population pyramid (age structure diagram) or "age-sex pyramid" is a graphical illustration of the distribution of a population (typically that of a country or region of the world) by age groups and sex; it typically takes the shape of a pyramid ...
s result in "constructive" pyramids which are narrowed at the bottom, this might not necessarily be the case in the aging population in a negligible senescence scenario. Depending on the
total fertility rate The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were t ...
(TFR) all three different shapes of population pyramids can be observed. Many questions still remain regarding demographic predictions in negligible senescence scenario's. The TFR has steadily decreased from 5 in 1950–1955 to around 2.5 in 2010–2015. The impact of negligible senescence on future TFR is unclear as there might be a reduced sense of self"replacement". However, this might be offset by no biological limitations on having an unlimited number of children (delay or complete eradication of
menopause Menopause, also known as the climacteric, is the time when Menstruation, menstrual periods permanently stop, marking the end of the Human reproduction, reproductive stage for the female human. It typically occurs between the ages of 45 and 5 ...
) which in turn may or may not occur with negligible senescence. Furthermore, the age of mothers might increase or stay stable depending on a myriad of factors thus impacting TFR.


Economics

The impact of negligible senescence on the economy is multi-faceted. Many
developed countries A developed country, or advanced country, is a sovereign state that has a high quality of life, developed economy, and advanced technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations. Most commonly, the criteria for eval ...
face
population ageing Population ageing is an overall change in the ages of a population. This can typically be summarised in a single parameter as an increase in the median age. Causes are a long-term decline in fertility rates and a decline in mortality rates. Most ...
due to
demographic transition In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory in the Social science, social sciences referring to the historical shift from high birth rates and high Mortality rate, death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as societi ...
whereas in the least developed countries people of old age only resembles a small part of the total population. Therefore, the development of negligible senescence therapies have profoundly different effects on the economies of countries with different demographic characteristics. From a worldwide perspective eliminating senescence has a massive effect on the economy. As current productivity losses for employers in the US alone is calculated at 225.8 billion annually, the impact can be large. Furthermore, changes in pension plans might enable unlimited perpetual
productivity Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production proce ...
after childhood ceteris paribus and thus eliminating the 'Aged
dependency ratio The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force (the ''dependent'' part ages 0 to 14 and 65+) and those typically in the labor force (the ''productive'' part ages 15 to 64). It is used to measure the press ...
' in the equation of dependency ratios. These effects are partly offset with the costs of providing negligible senescence therapies.


Life in a negligible senescence society

As philosopher
Nick Bostrom Nick Bostrom ( ; ; born 10 March 1973) is a Philosophy, philosopher known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, Existential risk from artificial general intelligence, superin ...
mentioned in his story " The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant" referring to the end of senescence: "''And in the coming days... I believe we have some reorganization to do!''". Humankind has experienced senescence for all its history. Therefore, major challenges are necessarily to fill the void the lack of senescence has now left behind. However, he does not substantiate this any further into practical measures.


See also

* Timeline of senescence research *
Aging brain Aging of the Human brain, brain is a process of transformation of the brain in old age, older age, including changes all individuals experience and those of illness (including unrecognised illness). Usually this refers to humans. Since life extens ...
*
Pro-aging trance Pro-aging trance, also known as pro-aging edifice, is a term coined by British author and biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey to describe the broadly positive and fatalistic attitude toward aging in society. Overview According to de Grey, ...
*
Longevity escape velocity In the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV), actuarial escape velocity or biological escape velocity is a hypothetical situation in which one's remaining life expectancy (not ''life expectancy at birth'') is extended longer t ...


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Negligible Senescence Senescence Biological evolution Immortality Life extension