Power projection (or force projection or strength projection) in

international relations International relations (IR, and also referred to as international studies, international politics, or international affairs) is an academic discipline. In a broader sense, the study of IR, in addition to multilateral relations, concerns al ...

is the capacity of a state to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory. The ability of a state to project its power into an area may serve as an effective diplomatic lever, influencing the decision-making processes and acting as a potential deterrent on other states' behavior. Pravda (Правда
(17 Mar 2022) Zelenskyy explained the essence of the new military alliance
U24 from Zelenskyy's night address verbatim: "I addressed the United States and all responsible states with a proposition to create a new U24 union: a new union that will ensure that each aggressor receives a coordinated world response quickly, effectively, and immediately - not in weeks, months, years, but for the first 24 hours after the attack." "We can no longer trust existing institutions. We cannot expect bureaucrats in international organisations to change fast enough, so we must look for new guarantees, create new tools, and to build alliances with those who have the courage to do what justice demands." This ability is a crucial element of a state's power in international relations. Any state able to direct its military forces outside its territory might be said to have ''some'' level of power projection capability, but the term itself is used most frequently in reference to militaries with a worldwide reach (or at least significantly broader than a state's immediate area). Even states with sizable hard power assets (such as a large

standing army A standing army is a permanent, often professional, army. It is composed of full-time soldiers who may be either career soldiers or conscripts. It differs from army reserves, who are enrolled for the long term, but activated only during wars ...

) may only be able to exert limited regional influence so long as they lack the means of effectively projecting their power on a global scale. Generally, only a select few states are able to overcome the logistical difficulties inherent in the deployment and direction of a modern, mechanized military force. Allies and partners can take up or share some of the burden of power projection. One measure of the capability of a state to project power is the loss-of-strength gradient, until a culminating point is apparent to others, once an operation is underway. A state might § compete in the gray zone just short of conflict, exercising its soft power, or hard power, in a bid for potential superpower.Russia Insigh
(February 1, 2022) BREAKING! Putin: USA Is Using Ukraine As ‘Tool’ To Contain Russia
8:01 Video clip, English closed captions While traditional measures of power projection typically focus on hard power assets (tanks, soldiers,

aircraft An aircraft ( aircraft) is a vehicle that is able to flight, fly by gaining support from the Atmosphere of Earth, air. It counters the force of gravity by using either Buoyancy, static lift or the Lift (force), dynamic lift of an airfoil, or, i ...

, naval vessels, etc.), the use of

soft power In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to co-option, co-opt rather than coerce (in contrast with hard power). It involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. Soft power is ...

shows that power projection does not necessarily have to actively put military forces in

combat Combat (French language, French for ''fight'') is a purposeful violent Conflict (process), conflict between multiple combatants with the intent to harm the opposition. Combat may be armed (using weapons) or unarmed (Hand-to-hand combat, not usin ...

, but only potentially. Assets for power projection can often serve dual uses, as the deployment of various countries' militaries during the humanitarian response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake illustrates.

History

Early examples of power projection include Roman dominance of Europe and the wider Mediterranean basin: the ability to project power is tied to the ability to innovate and field such innovations. Roman engineering innovations such as machines ( pile driver), concrete, aqueducts and modern roads provided the footing for an economic engine that powered a military that was unmatched in its day. Examples of Roman power projection include

Julius Caesar Gaius Julius Caesar (12 or 13 July 100 BC – 15 March 44 BC) was a Roman general and statesman. A member of the First Triumvirate, Caesar led the Roman armies in the Gallic Wars before defeating his political rival Pompey in Caesar's civil wa ...

constructing the Rhine bridge in 10 days to demonstrate the ability to march his 40,000 troops as he saw fit: the local inhabitants enjoyed the natural protection of the river and fled when this natural protection was overcome. Although Rome is far from the center of modern power, its influence can be seen in the architecture of modern capitols around the world (domes, arches, columns). The demonstration of an extraordinary innovative military capability will signal power and, when properly applied, terminate conflicts summarily. During the Ming treasure voyages in the 15th century, the Chinese treasure fleet was heavily militarized to exercise power projection around the Indian Ocean and thereby promote its interests. The modern ability to project power and exert influence on a global scale can be tied to innovations stemming from the

Industrial Revolution The Industrial Revolution, sometimes divided into the First Industrial Revolution and Second Industrial Revolution, was a transitional period of the global economy toward more widespread, efficient and stable manufacturing processes, succee ...

and the associated modernizations in technology, communications,

finance Finance refers to monetary resources and to the study and Academic discipline, discipline of money, currency, assets and Liability (financial accounting), liabilities. As a subject of study, is a field of Business administration, Business Admin ...

and

bureaucracy Bureaucracy ( ) is a system of organization where laws or regulatory authority are implemented by civil servants or non-elected officials (most of the time). Historically, a bureaucracy was a government administration managed by departments ...

; this finally allowed the state to create unprecedented amounts of wealth and to effectively marshal these resources to exert power over long distances. As the birthplace of the

, Britain was the first to utilize its industrial-technological power advantage to dominate rivals and greatly expand its global

Empire An empire is a political unit made up of several territories, military outpost (military), outposts, and peoples, "usually created by conquest, and divided between a hegemony, dominant center and subordinate peripheries". The center of the ...

throughout the 19th century. As a maritime power, the

Royal Navy The Royal Navy (RN) is the naval warfare force of the United Kingdom. It is a component of His Majesty's Naval Service, and its officers hold their commissions from the King of the United Kingdom, King. Although warships were used by Kingdom ...

played a central role in providing Britain the strength and ability to dominate world trade and project power globally to further its interests. A worldwide system of naval bases and coaling stations, a large logistical bureaucracy to oversee shipbuilding, the supply of coal, food, water, and sailors, and an industrial base for the manufacture and technological enhancement of the fleet were among the essential ingredients for this capability. During the First Opium War (1839–1842), it was this capacity that enabled a British expeditionary force of 15 barracks ships, 4 steam-powered gunboats and 25 smaller boats with 4,000 marines to successfully defend its interests from the fleet's home port. Magdala burning

The Anglo- French expeditionary force sent to shore up the

Ottoman Empire The Ottoman Empire (), also called the Turkish Empire, was an empire, imperial realm that controlled much of Southeast Europe, West Asia, and North Africa from the 14th to early 20th centuries; it also controlled parts of southeastern Centr ...

against Russian aggression during the

Crimean War The Crimean War was fought between the Russian Empire and an alliance of the Ottoman Empire, the Second French Empire, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, and the Kingdom of Sardinia (1720–1861), Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont fro ...

(1853–1856) was one of the earliest modern examples of a planned expeditionary power-projection campaign. It was the first campaign to use modern technology, including steam-powered warships and

telegraph Telegraphy is the long-distance transmission of messages where the sender uses symbolic codes, known to the recipient, rather than a physical exchange of an object bearing the message. Thus flag semaphore is a method of telegraphy, whereas ...

communications. Another illustrative example of industrial power projection, was the British Expedition to Abyssinia in 1868 as a retaliation against Emperor Tewodros II of Ethiopia's imprisonment of several missionaries and British government representatives. The expeditionary force sent was a tremendous logistical and technological challenge at the time. Commanded by Lieutenant-General Sir Robert Napier of the Bombay Army,

military intelligence Military intelligence is a military discipline that uses information collection and analysis List of intelligence gathering disciplines, approaches to provide guidance and direction to assist Commanding officer, commanders in decision making pr ...

was used to estimate the required size of the army and the difficulties of traversing the inhospitable terrain. A force of over 30,000 was shipped from

British India The provinces of India, earlier presidencies of British India and still earlier, presidency towns, were the administrative divisions of British governance in South Asia. Collectively, they have been called British India. In one form or another ...

to Zula on the

Red Sea The Red Sea is a sea inlet of the Indian Ocean, lying between Africa and Asia. Its connection to the ocean is in the south, through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden. To its north lie the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and th ...

on a fleet of more than 280 steam ships, while an advance detachment of

engineer Engineers, as practitioners of engineering, are professionals who Invention, invent, design, build, maintain and test machines, complex systems, structures, gadgets and materials. They aim to fulfill functional objectives and requirements while ...

s built a large port with two piers, warehouses and a lighthouse, and constructed a -long railway towards the interior. A road was also built for the artillery to be moved along with the help of

elephant Elephants are the largest living land animals. Three living species are currently recognised: the African bush elephant ('' Loxodonta africana''), the African forest elephant (''L. cyclotis''), and the Asian elephant ('' Elephas maximus ...

s. After three months of trekking, the British force repelled an Ethiopian attack and launched an artillery bombardment against the fortress of Magdala which led to its capitulation; Tewodros committed suicide. In the

Russo-Japanese War The Russo-Japanese War (8 February 1904 – 5 September 1905) was fought between the Russian Empire and the Empire of Japan over rival imperial ambitions in Manchuria and the Korean Empire. The major land battles of the war were fought on the ...

of 1904–1905, the Japanese destruction of the Imperial Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet demonstrated

Imperial Russia Imperial is that which relates to an empire, emperor/empress, or imperialism. Imperial or The Imperial may also refer to: Places United States * Imperial, California * Imperial, Missouri * Imperial, Nebraska * Imperial, Pennsylvania * ...

's inability to project force in the

East East is one of the four cardinal directions or points of the compass. It is the opposite direction from west and is the direction from which the Sun rises on the Earth. Etymology As in other languages, the word is formed from the fact that ea ...

. This immediately diminished Russia's diplomatic sway in that region. At the same time, Russia's western armies became less credible, as

mobilization Mobilization (alternatively spelled as mobilisation) is the act of assembling and readying military troops and supplies for war. The word ''mobilization'' was first used in a military context in the 1850s to describe the preparation of the ...

exposed organizational flaws and threw the western armies into chaos. This led analysts in Europe, such as German

chief of staff The title chief of staff (or head of staff) identifies the leader of a complex organization such as the armed forces, institution, or body of persons and it also may identify a principal staff officer (PSO), who is the coordinator of the supportin ...

Count Alfred von Schlieffen, to conclude that Russia would prove inept at projecting force in Europe, thus demoting Russia in European diplomatic relations. Many other actions can be considered projections of force. The 19th century is full of incidents such as the 1864 Shimonoseki campaign and the

Boxer Rebellion The Boxer Rebellion, also known as the Boxer Uprising, was an anti-foreign, anti-imperialist, and anti-Christian uprising in North China between 1899 and 1901, towards the end of the Qing dynasty, by the Society of Righteous and Harmonious F ...

. More recently, the

Falklands War The Falklands War () was a ten-week undeclared war between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982 over two British Overseas Territories, British dependent territories in the South Atlantic: the Falkland Islands and Falkland Islands Dependenci ...

provided an example of the

United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...

's ability to project force far from home. Other recent examples of power projection include the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. The ability of the U.S. Navy, the British

, and the

French Navy The French Navy (, , ), informally (, ), is the Navy, maritime arm of the French Armed Forces and one of the four military service branches of History of France, France. It is among the largest and most powerful List of navies, naval forces i ...

to deploy large numbers of ships for long periods of time away from home are notable projection abilities. ''See § Power projection capabilities.'' The globalization of power projection was long avoided in the research with the subject of

globalization Globalization is the process of increasing interdependence and integration among the economies, markets, societies, and cultures of different countries worldwide. This is made possible by the reduction of barriers to international trade, th ...

mostly channeled to economic field, but in 2018 Historian Max Ostrovsky broke the path. In prehistory, he wrote, power was not projected behind entrance of a cave. In history, empires and colonies projected power ever farther, creating world system c. 1900. World Wars were expressions of power projected on global scale. The potential of power projection can be estimated mathematically by calculating the speed of transportation and communication relatively to the extent of contemporary power projection. Roman troops moved 50 km per day; today Globemasters move troops 20,000 km per day. The speed of communication in the largest Empire in Americas (

Inca The Inca Empire, officially known as the Realm of the Four Parts (, ), was the largest empire in pre-Columbian America. The administrative, political, and military center of the empire was in the city of Cusco. The History of the Incas, Inca ...

) was 20 km per hour (running man); today it moves with the

speed of light The speed of light in vacuum, commonly denoted , is a universal physical constant exactly equal to ). It is exact because, by international agreement, a metre is defined as the length of the path travelled by light in vacuum during a time i ...

. Multiplying the range of power projection in those empires by increase in the speed of transportation or communication, Ostrovsky estimated the present power projection potential to exceed the size of Earth multiple times.

Elements

The U.S. Department of Defense defines power projection as the "ability of a nation to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, to contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability".United States Department of Defense. ''J1-02: Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms.'

Jeremy Herb, Jennifer Hansler and Ellie Kaufman, CNN (28 January 2022
Top US general warns of 'horrific' outcome if Russian forces 'unleashed' on Ukraine
Secretary of Defense Austin puts 8,500 US troops on alert for EUCOM engagement As distance between a fighting force and its headquarters increases, command and control inevitably becomes more difficult. Modern-day power projection often employs high-tech communications and

information technology Information technology (IT) is a set of related fields within information and communications technology (ICT), that encompass computer systems, software, programming languages, data processing, data and information processing, and storage. Inf ...

to overcome these difficulties, a process sometimes described as the " Revolution in Military Affairs". While a few long-range

weapon A weapon, arm, or armament is any implement or device that is used to deter, threaten, inflict physical damage, harm, or kill. Weapons are used to increase the efficacy and efficiency of activities such as hunting, crime (e.g., murder), law ...

s such as the

intercontinental ballistic missile An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range (aeronautics), range greater than , primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery (delivering one or more Thermonuclear weapon, thermonuclear warheads). Conven ...

s (ICBMs) and some

unmanned combat aerial vehicle An unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), also known as a combat drone, fighter drone or battlefield UAV, is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that is used for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance and carries aircra ...

s ( drones) are capable of projecting deadly force in their own right, it is

military logistics Military logistics is the discipline of planning and carrying out the movement, supply, and maintenance of military forces. In its most comprehensive sense, it is those aspects or military operations that deal with: * Design, development, Milita ...

that is at the heart of power projection. The ability to integrate naval and

air force An air force in the broadest sense is the national military branch that primarily conducts aerial warfare. More specifically, it is the branch of a nation's armed services that is responsible for aerial warfare as distinct from an army aviati ...

s with land armies as part of joint warfare is a key aspect of effective power projection;

airlift An airlift is the organized delivery of Materiel, supplies or personnel primarily via military transport aircraft. Airlifting consists of two distinct types: strategic and tactical. Typically, strategic airlifting involves moving material lo ...

and

sealift Sealift is a term used predominantly in military logistics and refers to the use of cargo ships for the deployment of military assets, such as weaponry, vehicles, military personnel, and supplies. It complements other means of transport, such as ...

capabilities facilitate the deployment of

soldier A soldier is a person who is a member of an army. A soldier can be a Conscription, conscripted or volunteer Enlisted rank, enlisted person, a non-commissioned officer, a warrant officer, or an Officer (armed forces), officer. Etymology The wo ...

s and

s to a distant theater of war. The aircraft carrier strike group,

strategic bomber A strategic bomber is a medium- to long-range Penetrator (aircraft), penetration bomber aircraft designed to drop large amounts of air-to-ground weaponry onto a distant target for the purposes of debilitating the enemy's capacity to wage war. Unl ...

, ballistic missile submarine, and strategic airlifter are all examples of power projection platforms. Military units designed to be

light Light, visible light, or visible radiation is electromagnetic radiation that can be visual perception, perceived by the human eye. Visible light spans the visible spectrum and is usually defined as having wavelengths in the range of 400– ...

and mobile, such as

airborne forces Airborne forces are ground combat units carried by aircraft and airdropped into battle zones, typically by parachute drop. Parachute-qualified infantry and support personnel serving in airborne units are also known as paratroopers. The main ...

(

paratrooper A paratrooper or military parachutist is a soldier trained to conduct military operations by parachuting directly into an area of operations, usually as part of a large airborne forces unit. Traditionally paratroopers fight only as light infa ...

s and air assault forces) and amphibious assault forces, are utilized in power projection. Forward basing is another method of power projection, which, by pre-positioning military units or stockpiles of arms at strategically located

military base A military base is a facility directly owned and operated by or for the military or one of its branches that shelters military equipment and personnel, and facilitates training and operations. A military base always provides accommodations for ...

s outside a country's territory, reduces the time and distance needed to mobilize them.

Types

Scholars have disaggregated military power projection into nine different categories based on political goals and level of force. Four of these employ "soft" military power (securing sea lanes of communication,

non-combatant Non-combatant is a term of art in the law of war and international humanitarian law to refer to civilians who are not taking a direct part in hostilities. People such as combat medics and military chaplains, who are members of the belligerent arm ...

evacuation, humanitarian response, and

peacekeeping Peacekeeping comprises activities, especially military ones, intended to create conditions that favor lasting peace. Research generally finds that peacekeeping reduces civilian and battlefield deaths, as well as reduces the risk of renewed w ...

) and the rest are primarily concerned with "hard" military power ( show the flag, compellence/deterrence, punishment, armed intervention, and conquest). There is a § continuum in these capabilities.

Soft power

Examples of soft power projection include: * Securing sea lanes of communication: the protection of shipping lanes from attack by hostile states or irregular threats. * Non-combatant evacuation operations: the evacuation of citizens or friendly third-country civilians from a foreign country when they are endangered by war or civil unrest. * Humanitarian response: the use of military forces abroad to assist in the aftermath of a natural disaster. * Peacekeeping: military operations designed to support diplomatic efforts to reach a long-term political settlement to an ongoing dispute.Zachary B. Wolf, Curt Merrill and Ji Min Lee, CN
(16 Mar 2022) Zelensky’s address to Congress, annotated
Volodymyr Zelensky
(16 Mar 2022) Address by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the US Congress
* Establishing trust, as the basis of cooperation among allies and partnersE. John Teicher
(24 Mar 2022) The Hard Power of Security Cooperation
Jim Garamone, DOD New
(22 Nov 2022) Austin: Nations Support Rules-Based Order

ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, commonly abbreviated as ASEAN, is a regional grouping of 10 states in Southeast Asia "that aims to promote economic and security cooperation among its ten members." Together, its member states r ...

conference

Gray zone competition

:''This section has bee
split from
US Army Futures Command § Other armies'' The gray zone between cooperation and conflictShashank Josh
(29 Jan 2022) The technology of seeing and shooting your enemies
/ref> has expanded due to the

competition Competition is a rivalry where two or more parties strive for a common goal which cannot be shared: where one's gain is the other's loss (an example of which is a zero-sum game). Competition can arise between entities such as organisms, indi ...

in power projection capabilities of the world's armies, as well as in the competition for economic power among the world's nations. James Graha
Military Power vs Economic Power in History
Compares nations James Graha
Military Power vs Economic Power in History (Part 2)
" is economic power that allows military power to be built up in the first place".(7 Apr 2022) Russia facing most difficult situation in three decades, PM says
after 6 weeks of economic sanctions,

Mikhail Mishustin Mikhail Vladimirovich Mishustin (born 3 March 1966) is a Russian politician and economist serving as the current prime minister of Russia since 16 January 2020. He previously served as the director of the Federal Taxation Service from 2010 to ...

: "the current situation could be called the most difficult in three decades for Russia".BILL GREENWALT and EMILY COLETT
(23 Mar 2023) $1T in new defense spending pledged by key US partners in 1 year: Analysis
"In the last year, 37 nations have combined to announce defense spending increases of over $1 trillion, to be spent during the next five years, according to a new American Enterprise Institute analysis"Jen Judso
(28 Mar 2023) US Army eyes six-fold production boost of 155mm shells used in Ukraine
Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity in 2023 to increase production from 14,000 per month, to 24,000 per month in 2023, to 85,000 155mm howitzer shells per month by 2028. The US, Russia, China, Britain, and France have renounced the use of nuclear weapons in 2022.NBC New
(4 Jan 2022) Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war
/ref> However, in the face of threats of nuclear war (say from Russia, as threatened during the

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...

),Reuter
(25 Apr 2022) Russia's Lavrov: Do not underestimate threat of nuclear war

NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental organization, intergovernmental Transnationalism, transnational military alliance of 32 Member states of NATO, member s ...

keeps about 100

B61 nuclear bomb The B61 nuclear bomb is the primary thermonuclear weapon, thermonuclear gravity bomb in the United States Enduring Stockpile following the end of the Cold War. It is a low-to-intermediate yield strategic nuclear weapon, strategic and tactical nuc ...

s in storage in Europe.Dan Za
(25 March 2022) Meet the nuke the U.S. keeps in Europe, just waiting to not be used
/ref>Robbin Lair
(11 Apr 2022) Time to relearn nuclear escalation management for the 21st century
Reuter

Gen. (USA Ret.) Barry R. McCaffreybr>(26 Apr 2022) "Putin's threat of nuclear weapons is horrendously unsettling"
Hyung-Jin Kim and Kim Tong-Hyung, Associated Pres
(28 Oct 2022) North Korea fires missiles toward sea as US warns over nukes
"The Pentagon's National Defense Strategy report issued on Thursday stated that any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners will result in the end of he DPRK (Kim)regime".PBS NewsHou
(28 Oct 2022) WATCH LIVE: Defense Secretary Austin holds news briefing to announce 2022 National Defense Strategy
Unclassified. Integrated deterrence— Strategy Across all domains Certain F-35As were certified to carry the

on 12 October 2023.Michael Marro
(8 Mar 2024) EXCLUSIVE: F-35A officially certified to carry nuclear bomb
B61-12 The

British Army The British Army is the principal Army, land warfare force of the United Kingdom. the British Army comprises 73,847 regular full-time personnel, 4,127 Brigade of Gurkhas, Gurkhas, 25,742 Army Reserve (United Kingdom), volunteer reserve perso ...

is investigating innovations, such as robots and drones,Jaspreet Gill
(14 Nov 2022) How Project Convergence is informing British, Australian military modernization
§ Project Convergence 2022 including 70 technologies funded by the £800 million (US$1 billion) Defence Innovation Fund launched in 2016. Two hundred troops will engage in "surveillance, long-range, and precision targeting, enhanced mobility and the re-supply of forces, urban warfare and enhanced situational awareness". The British Army is reducing size by about 10,000 troops as well, by 2025. The British Army will have Integrated Operating Concept (MDI—like MDO) for "gray zone" operations across domains, using a synthetic operating environment, with repeatable hard and soft strike capability. The UK, Germany, and France respectively have established a joint command for space United Kingdom Space Command, a Space Situational Awareness Centre (Germany), and ''Commandement de l’espace'' (France).Vivienne Mach
(13 Jul 2021) Germany establishes new military space command
/ref>Rameesh Cheem

Israel; Hellenic Republic; Brazil; Taiwan; Saudi Arabia; India; Italy; Republic of Türkiye; Japan; France *Rameesh Cheema
(17 Dec 2022) 5 Most Advanced Countries in Military Technology
UK; RoK (So. Korea); PRC (China); Russia; US In light of the

2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...

members are implementing new stockpile guidelines for their arsenals.Vivienne Mach
(13 Feb 2023) Eyes on Ukraine, NATO preps new ammo guidelines to boost production
"Orders placed today will only be delivered two-and-a-half years later". — Jens StoltenbergAndrew White
(15 Feb 2023) NATO must collaborate, be ‘smarter’ about rebuilding munition stockpiles: Official
Ukraine is expending more than 5,000 artillery rounds daily. "By 2020 the Army's programs for modernization were now framed as a decades-long process of cooperation with allies and partners,Defender-Europe 20
videos, images and storiesLt. Col. Travis Dettme
(9 February 2020) U.S. Army Futures and Concepts Center teaches Multi-Domain Operations to NATO Allied Land Command
/ref> for

with potential adversaries who historically have blurred the distinction between peace and war"Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(January 13, 2020) Infinite Games & War By Other Means: Ryan McCarthy
"We must be engaged in constant competition, versus an episodic engagement strategy" —Secretary Ryan McCarthy—from: § Reorganization plan of the United States Army #In 2020, one measure of § military power projection ranks the competition between the armies of the world (after the US Army, which is ranked atop this list).Greg Norma
(22 Feb 2020) The 5 most powerful armies in the world
/ref>The Hon. David Norquist, Deputy Secretary of Defense, Do
(10 Sep 2020) Closing Keynote: Day 2
''Defense News Conference 2020 : Sept 9 - 10'' 22:00 minutesZamone Pere
(18 Oct 2022) US military in decline, threats from China 'formidable', report says
Heritage Foundation report for the case of 2 major wars (as opposed to 1.5 wars, rated as Favorable)C. Todd Lopez, DOD New
(18 Oct 2022) U.S. Can Support Ukraine While Meeting Its Own Security Commitments
The list of armies, a mixture of allies, partners, and competitors is estimated to be: #Russia jammed the GPS signal during NATO exercises in November 2018.(4 November 2018) Russia Jammed GPS During Major NATO Military Exercise With US Troops
/ref>Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(6 June 2019) Army Fields Anti-Jam GPS In Germany This Fall
/ref>Russia has figured out how to jam U.S. drones in Syria, officials say
/ref> In 2014 the DoD's research and engineering chief Alan Shaffer warned that the 'US lost dominance of the electromagnetic spectrum' (EMS), in part due to the US government selloff of EMS radio frequencies, and also due in part to the proliferation of digital technologies which allow for low-cost jammers.Sydney Freedberg, Jr
(3 September 2014) US Has Lost ‘Dominance In Electromagnetic Spectrum’: Shaffer
/ref> (''See: meaconing'')Stephen Clar
(25 November 2019) Russia launches space surveillance satellite
Kosmos 2542, in a polar orbit—" omonitor the condition of other Russian satellites in orbit."Joseph Trevithic
(30 January 2020) A Russian "Inspector" Spacecraft Now Appears To Be Shadowing An American Spy Satellite
USA 245 is a KH-11 series satellite; Cosmos 2542 is now tailing the USA 245's movements with a precision of 150 to 300 kilometers. ''See Hall thruster'' General

Valery Gerasimov Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov (born 8 September 1955) is a Russian Army general (Russia), army general serving as the Chief of the General Staff (Russia), Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Ministry of Defen ...

advocates hybrid warfare, a "blend of political, economic and military power to bear against adversaries".Andrew E. Krame
(2 March 2019) Russian General Pitches ‘Information’ Operations as a Form of War
/ref>Paul McClear
(30 May 2019) Dunford: Leaders Mull First NATO Strategy In Decades
/ref> Neil Haue
(26 February 2020) Russia may have met its match in Libya
Is unable to tip the balance, as it has in Syria. So Russia is escalating its involvement. Russia took Crimea without firing a shot.Andrew Goodma
(26 Apr 2022) Putin the Planner
Worked alongside Putin when he was Deputy Mayor of St. Petersberg. "Whatever happens on the ground now, there is good reason to think that Putin will continue to pursue a solution on his terms as long as he remains in power".Clare Sebastian and Chris Liakos, CN

/ref>Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(21 April 2020) COVID-19: Army Futures Command Takes Wargames Online
/ref> In April 2020 Russia tested an anti-satellite system for

low Earth orbit A low Earth orbit (LEO) is an geocentric orbit, orbit around Earth with a orbital period, period of 128 minutes or less (making at least 11.25 orbits per day) and an orbital eccentricity, eccentricity less than 0.25. Most of the artificial object ...

(LEO) satellites.Aaron Batema
(22 May 2020) As Russia stalks US satellites, a space arms race may be heating up
/ref> On 15 November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite test destroyed its Kosmos 1408, endangering its own cosmonauts on the

International Space Station The International Space Station (ISS) is a large space station that was Assembly of the International Space Station, assembled and is maintained in low Earth orbit by a collaboration of five space agencies and their contractors: NASA (United ...

, and other satellites in

low earth orbit A low Earth orbit (LEO) is an geocentric orbit, orbit around Earth with a orbital period, period of 128 minutes or less (making at least 11.25 orbits per day) and an orbital eccentricity, eccentricity less than 0.25. Most of the artificial object ...

.Theresa Hitchen
(15 November 2021) Russian suspected ground-launched ASAT test scatters dangerous debris through LEO(16 November 2021) Surprise Russian ASAT test shows need to ‘scale’ space tracking, LeoLabs says
/ref>Specialist website Russian Space We

/ref>Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Pres
(9 Aug 2020) Russia warns it will see any incoming missile as nuclear
/ref>Mark B. Schneide

/ref> Cyber attacks on the whole of the US government via Supply_chain_attack § Whole of government began in March 2020, but only reached the attention of the news media on 14 December 2020.Eric Geller https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/14/massively-disruptive-cyber-crisis-engulfs-multiple-agencies-445376 (14 Dec 2020) 'Massively disruptive' cyber crisis engulfs multiple agencies]Ellen Nakashima & Craig Timber
(14 Dec 2020) Russian government hackers are behind a broad espionage campaign that has compromised U.S. agencies, including Treasury and Commerce
Identified as SVR /APT29 /Cozy Bear, according to FireEye. Breached using the update server of SolarWinds, its Orion Platform, versions released in Mar & Jun 2020. *Catalin Cimpanu
(14 Dec 2020) SolarWinds Says 18,000 Customers Were Impacted by Recent Hack
*Dan Goodi
(14 Dec 2020) ~18,000 organizations downloaded backdoor planted by Cozy Bear hackers
/ref> Russia is mapping the undersea cables which bear the majority of the communications traffic between the US and Europe.Lorne Coo
(30 May 2021) As Russia tensions simmer, NATO conducts massive war games
*Thomas Newdic
(11 Nov 2021) Norwegian Undersea Surveillance Network Had Its Cables Mysteriously Cut
/ref>Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Gwladys Fouche, Reuter

/ref>John Christianson
(5 Dec 2022) FIGHTING AND WINNING IN THE ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM
(EMS) #*On 25 December 2021 President Putin disclosed that Russia would be unable to defend itself against missiles launched against Moscow from Ukraine; their flight times would be four to five minutes, according to him.Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Pres
(26 Dec 2021) Putin to mull options if West refuses guarantees on Ukraine
/ref> However, Putin did not acknowledge that the West's Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System#Aegis_Ashore, Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and Romania are for defense against ballistic missiles, and not the Tomahawk missiles which he named in his statement. ''See:

A-135 anti-ballistic missile system The A-135 (NATO reporting name, NATO: ABM-4 Gorgon) is a Russian anti-ballistic missile system deployed around Moscow to intercept incoming warheads targeting the city or its surrounding areas. The system was designed in the Soviet Union and enter ...

, A-235 anti-ballistic missile system,

S-400 missile system The S-400 Triumf ( – Triumf; translation: Triumph; NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler), previously known as the S-300 PMU-3, is a mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) system developed in the 1990s by Russia's NPO Almaz as an upgrade to the S ...

, S-500 missile system '' To prove that Aegis Ashore is defensive only, inspection of the sites in Poland and Romania have been offered to Russia.Heather Mongili
(2 Feb 2022) U.S. Offered Russians Aegis Ashore Inspections to Ease Ukraine Tensions; More American Troops Headed to Europe
/ref> #* 2014_Russo-ukrainian-conflict_map

Ukraine Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the List of European countries by area, second-largest country in Europe after Russia, which Russia–Ukraine border, borders it to the east and northeast. Ukraine also borders Belarus to the nor ...

had a trench network on its border with Russia, in a standoff as of April 2021.Matthew Chanc
(12 Apr 2021) Ukraine's President heads to the trenches as Russia masses its troops
Troops and armor are massing by rail, within Russia's border.ZEYNEP BILGINSO
(10 Apr 2021) The leaders of Ukraine, Turkey stress territorial integrity
Donbass and Crimea are disputed.The Associated Pres
(12 Apr 2021) Blinken heads to Brussels for talks on Afghanistan, Ukraine
SecDef Lloyd Austin will attend.Lara Seligman and Natasha Bertan
(04/12/2021) Can Ukraine deploy U.S.-made weapons against the Russians?
FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles barely overmatch Uran-9sLara Seligma
(03/31/2021) Pentagon ‘watching’ as Russia steps up aggression in Eastern Europe
A ceasefire between the Ukraine Army and Donetsk separatists ended Jun 2020. EUCOM's V Corps has been on pre-planned maneuvers, but in a NATO partner's territory as of April 2021.Vivian Salama in Kyiv and William Mauldin in Washingto
(18 Jan 2022) U.S. Aims Sanctions at Pro-Russian Agents as Blinken Plans Ukraine, Russia Meetings
/ref>Robert Burn

/ref> A border exercise involving 110,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine borderOlivia Gazi
(22 Apr 2021)) After Putin's warning to West, Russia begins large-scale military exercises in and around Ukraine
/ref> has pulled back; however hundreds of armored vehicles, including tanks are remaining from Donbas (colloquial for Donets basin)Nils Adler, Laura King ''Los Angeles Times'

*Greg Ganske ttps://www.yahoo.com/news/opinion-why-war-ukraine-matter-155933627.html (22 Jan 2022) Opinion: Why would war in Ukraine matter to the United States?/ref> in spite of a partial armor pullback.Jim Garamone, DOD New
(14 Jan 2022) Russia Trying to Develop Pretext for Ukraine Invasion, DOD Official Says
/ref> Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OCSE) drones which are monitoring the line between Ukrainian troops and the Donbas separatists are seeing jamming of their drone's dual GPS receivers, with tens of thousands of infantry troops remaining on the Ukrainian border.Paul McLear
(7 May 2021) Jamming Strikes OSCE Drones Tracking Russian Forces
/ref> The OSCE has provided a map of the line dividing the Ukrainian forces and the Russian-backed forces.Michael Schwirtz ''New York Times'

Map of "Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces"''New York Times'

/ref> As of 18 February 2022 there were up to 190,000 troops along Ukraine's borders;Jeff Schogol, Paul Szoldr
(21 Feb 2022) Moscow orders Russian troops into Ukraine
/ref> after recognizing the separatist states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Moscow is moving troops over the border of Russia into the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and establishing military bases there.Reuter

/ref> This troop movement triggered sanctions on five Russian banks and three individuals, on 22 February 2022.Charles Rile

/ref>Charles Riley

/ref> (''See

'' which began 24 February 2022) #**Andrei Illarionov cites Pavel Felgengauer, who projects a scenario by which Russia can create a ' Novorossia' (see § CSIS figures 2a-2c)Ryan Pickrel
(25 Jan 2022) Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's border. Here's what Russia watchers think could be Putin's next big move.
Figures 2a-2c CSIS scenarios stretching across Southern Ukraine to Transnistria (Moldova) after a gas pipeline to the EU is completed (September 2021).Andrei Illariono
(30 April 2021) Putin was not ready to launch a war in the Spring
/ref> If the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline were to be weaponized by holding the

liquefied natural gas Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas (predominantly methane, CH4, with some mixture of ethane, C2H6) that has been cooled to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport. It takes up about 1/600th the volume o ...

(LNG) supply to Western Europe hostage, the US is countering this threat with contingency plans to redirect LNG supplies from the rest of the world.natasha Bertran
(23 Jan 2022) US putting together 'global' strategy to increase gas production if Russia invades Ukraine, officials say
/ref>Charles Rile

/ref> Germany has agreed to safeguard Ukraine, as well.

Deutsche Welle (; "German Wave"), commonly shortened to DW (), is a German state-funded television network, state-owned international broadcaster funded by the Federal Government of Germany. The service is available in 32 languages. DW's satellite tele ...

br>(27 Feb 2022) Germany commits €100 billion to defense spending
Scholz: Germany has now agreed to a one-time $113 billion increase in its defense budget.Christian Dato

/ref>Alexander Ratz and Pavel Polityu

/ref>Binko
(26 Jan 2022) What might happen if Russia does attack Ukraine?
Ukraine is outgunned. Russia would likely stop when resistance stiffens, in Spring 2022. Europe would be divided over heating supplies for impending winter. Ties between Russia and China would strengthen as Europe sanctions its trade with Russia due to war.Rick Rouan, Courtney Subramanian, Joey Garrison and David Jackson, USA Toda

/ref>Jessie Yeung, Adam Renton, Rob Picheta, Ed Upright, Aditi Sangal, Adrienne Vogt and Melissa Macaya, CN
(23 Feb 2022) The latest on the Ukraine-Russia crisis
Situation ''See 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage —26 September 2022 '' #**Cyber attacks on Ukrainian government websites are occurring in January 2022.Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy, Financial Time
(14 Jan 2022) Ukraine says government websites hit by "massive cyber attack"
/ref>Howard Altma
(19 Jan 2022) Russian attack could happen 'any minute' Ukraine official says
/ref> Frida Ghitis and Richard Galant point out that the muddy season that ends winter would bog down an armored invasion.Frida Ghiti
(13 Jan 2022) Putin's big miscalculation
/ref> US Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vershinen points out that if the Russian Army were to attempt a quick ''

fait accompli Many words in the English vocabulary are of French language, French origin, most coming from the Anglo-Norman language, Anglo-Norman spoken by the upper classes in England for several hundred years after the Norman conquest of England, Norman ...

'' and then dig in, its logistical capability would be insufficient to complete a large land grab, as its logistic capabilities are largely based on railroads, but not trucks.US Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vershine
(23 Nov 2021) Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli
/ref>Matthew Chance, Kylie Atwood, Emmet Lyons and Ami Kaufman, CNN

*[https://seemorerocks.is/russia-sets-up-army-field-hospital-near-ukraine-moves-iskander-missiles-and-amphibious-landing-craft-from-caspian-sea-to-ukraine-coast/ (10 Apr 2021) Russia Sets Up Army Field Hospital Near Ukraine; Moves Iskander Missiles and Amphibious Landing Craft From Caspian Sea to Ukraine Coast!] Russia's logistic capability without railroads is , without replenishment; thus Sebastien Roblin suggests that a "short, victorious war" by Russia (as in the 12-day war with Georgia in 2008), with stipulations largely resembling its current diplomatic demands, namely installation of pro-Russian leadership, Ukraine's withdrawal from the path of joining NATO etc., coupled with the expedient of bypassing Russian control of Kyiv's population, might avoid Russia's getting bogged down in Ukraine.Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes and Helene Coope
(7 Apr 2022) Russia Is Recruiting Mercenaries and Syrians to Ukraine, Western Officials Say
/ref> This calculation could get up-ended by a longer war, with determined resistance in Ukraine,Julie Colema

Training in Kharkiv and Kyiv via guerilla warfare,Helene Coope

/ref>Michael Kofman and Rob Le
(2 Jun 2022) Not Built For Purpose: The Russian Military's Ill-Fated Force Decision
Platoons on paper were half-sized in reality, leading to no dismounted infantry in motorized units. as in Afghanistan (1979-1989), which indirectly ended the Soviet Union.Sebastien Robli
(21 Jan 2022) The ‘Georgia Model’: Russia’s Plan For Invading Ukraine?
/ref> Within two months of the beginning of the

First Chechen War The First Chechen War, also referred to as the First Russo-Chechen War, was a struggle for independence waged by the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria against the invading Russia, Russian Federation from 1994 to 1996. After a mutually agreed on treaty ...

, an antiwar movement arose in Russia. #***On 22 February 2022 historian Sergey Radchenko recalled a vignette from September 1945, during the post World War II Potsdam Conference negotiations on the division of world power at the London Conference of Foreign Ministers, when Soviet Foreign Commissar Vyacheslav Molotov asked U.S. Secretary of State James F. Byrnes whether he carried the atomic bomb in his side pocket, to which Byrnes threatened Molotov to stop stalling, or else Byrnes would pull the atomic bomb out of his pocket and use it on Molotov (''laughter''). Molotov was guided by Stalin's directive "It is clear that you must display complete obduracy".Sergey Radchenk
(22 February 2022) Moscow Musings on Brinksmanship From Stalin to Putin
/ref> (''See Proxy war'') #* Russia and Belarus began Zapad 2021, a 200,000-troop exercise held every four years. The Pripyat marshes would bog down an armored invasion through Belarus.Richard Galan
(23 Jan 2022) Putin confronts the mud of Ukraine
/ref> #*In the opinion of James Stavridis, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing that Special Forces, unmanned systems, and Cyber will become far more important in the future.James Stavridi
(11 Apr 2022) What the U.S. Military Needs to Learn from the Ukraine War
#*In 2021 Russia spent 2.7 percent of its GDP on defense, a level which is expected to drop to 2.3 percent by 2023, as part of a mandate to boost domestic production.Alexander Bratersk
(3 Sep 2021) Private companies at ‘Army 2021’ forum strive for survival as Russian military orders shrink
/ref> #**Unmanned ground combat vehicles (UGCVs), among them Uran-6, Uran-9 (Уран-9), and Uran-14 are entering service in the Russian Army as of 2021. Uran-6 is a mine flail; Uran-14 is an unmanned firefighting vehicle. Uran-9s are semi-autonomous robotic combat vehicles; specialists can operate them using mobile control stations. Their first attempted service was in Syria. Analysts from

BAE Systems BAE Systems plc is a British Multinational corporation, multinational Aerospace industry, aerospace, military technology, military and information security company, based in London. It is the largest manufacturer in Britain as of 2017. It is ...

(UK) assessed the Uran-9s in Syria as unreliable, with their radio-controls sometimes blocked by buildings; their sensors and guidance were unstabilized. An armed Uran-9 weighs 12 tons,Isabella Beltra
(10 Apr 2021) Uran-9, Russian Robotic Tanks Slated to be Deployed "Soon" Despite Flaws During Syrian Tests, The Sc''i''encetimes
(Mixed-font ''I'' in 'science' appears deliberate.) and measures 5 meters long, which is a fifth of the weight and half the length of a T-90 tank. Each Uran-9 control system operates at ranges up to from the UGVs; Ax
(14 Sep 2021) Russia one step ahead, Why Russia's strike robots is scary enough
/ref> Zvezda (TV channel)br>Воины будущего. Какими возможностями обладают поступившие на вооружение ВС РФ боевые роботы «Уран-9»
Uran-9 Control system each control system currently (2021) guides 4 UGVs, in a leader-follower configuration.Sebastien Robli
(21 October 2019) This Is the Robot Tank Russia Used in Syria
/ref>Combat Approve
(13 Feb 2021) Episode 44. The Uran-9 Russia’s First Combat Robot
/ref> Uran-9 was used in the Vostok 2018 exercises in 2018. At least 20 Uran-9 UGCVs exist.Army Technology.co
(2016) Uran-9 Unmanned Ground Combat Vehicle
/ref> #**Russia's defense ministry has signed a contract to field the Tsirkon hypersonic missiles to its troops in 2025.James Crump
(24 Aug 2021) Russia Orders Hypersonic Missiles As Putin Vows to Put Weapons on 'Combat Alert'
/ref> #**During the 2021 negotiations for defusing the Ukraine-Russia confrontation, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has warned that its 9M729 nuclear-capable cruise missile, which is already deployed in the European part of Russia, might be further employed there.Alexander Marrow and Mark Trevelyan (Reuters
(13 Dec 2021) Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe
/ref> #** The hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and 3M22 Zircon (Tsirkon) are standoff strike weapons, for keeping adversaries at bay; they are land-based, and sea-based respectively.Roger McDermot
(7 Feb 2022) The Role of Hypersonic Weapons in Russian Military Strategy
Giperzvukovogo Oruzhiya—(GZO); or Giperzvukovyye letatel’nyye apparaty—(GZLA) Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Kalibr, Poseidon, Avangard, Burevestnik, Sarmat, #* On 1 September 2022 Russia, China, India, and 11 other nations began a scaled-down Vostok 2022 (East 2022).The Moscow Time
(1 September 2022) Russia Stages Scaled-down War Games With China, India
/ref> Vostok will exercise 50,000 troops, down from 300,000 in 2018. India is contributing 75 troops. #* By 19 October 2022 NATO nations were providing winter equipment to Ukraine.Paul McLear
(19 October 2022) NATO is rushing equipment to Ukraine as troops hunker down for the winter
"The war begins a new phase as Russia launches missiles and temperatures fall" By Spring 2023 the US industrial base can be providing 20,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer munitions per month to Ukraine.Brian Bender and Laura Seligman
(4 Dec 2022) "We haven't got this figured out just yet": Pentagon, industry struggle to arm Ukraine
"The Russia problem takes center stage at this year's Reagan National Defense Forum". #* Beginning 1 April 2023 400,000 contract servicemen are to replenish the Russian army.Ukrayinska Pravd

starting 1 Apr 2023David Ax
(20 Aug 2023) Add A New Radar To An Old Air-Defense Missile, And You'd Get The Ukrainian 5V28—Kyiv's Most Potent Deep-Strike Weapon
Moscow shows no black/brown clouds of AK27F/TG02 propellant in its skies, to back its claims of an intercept #*In a meeting in Moscow, March 2023 the presidents of China and Russia agreed to cooperate over a wide range of business, and economic issues, such as payment in local currencies (viz., Yuan or Rubles).Evelyn Chan

Presidents Xi Jinping, V.V. Putin, respectively #China—RAND simulations show Blue losses.Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(7 March 2019) US ‘Gets Its Ass Handed To It’ In Wargames: Here’s A $24 Billion Fix
Army prepositioned stocks (APS) vulnerability Six of the top 15 defense companies in the world are now Chinese, in 2019 for the first time. The

with China was shaped in the decade 2010–2020, according to David Kriete.Theresa Hitchens
(31 July 2019) Competition (With China) IS The New Deterrence, US Military Leaders Say
Vice Adm. David Kriete of US Strategic Commandaj.com (1 Oct 2019) China Confirms New Hypersonic Nuclear Missile On 70th Anniversary
DF-17 *Kristin Huang
(23 Aug 2019) China’s hypersonic DF-17 missile threatens regional stability, analyst warns(1 Oct 2019) China unveils Dongfeng-17 conventional missiles in military parade
See minute 0:05 to 0:49 for 16 Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (white-tipped contrast atop their DF-17 fuselages mounted on booster rockets) *Kathrin Hille in Taipei and Qianer Liu in Beijin
(1 Oct 2019) China displays military advances in show of strength to rivals
Lists missile armaments
FT video
FT estimates 1/3rd of China's missile arsenal is on display in 1 Oct parade *BILL POWELL
(10/3/19) China's Hypersonic Missile, AKA 'Carrier Killers,' Are a 'Holy S**t Moment' for US Military
/ref>Bill Gert
(24 December 2019) China's test of sub-launched missile a threat to peace, retired captain warns
JL-3 is an SLBM By 2023 China's defense companies were offering competitors to US Javelins, armed drones, and supersonic cruise missiles.Ashley Roqu
(22 Feb 2023) As US worries over Beijing’s influence in Middle East, Chinese defense firms flock to IDEX 2023
International Defense Exhibition in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates #*Secretary Mark Esper said that China is aiming to be the dominant military power in Asia by 2049.Robert Burn
(27 Aug 2020) Esper visit to tiny Palau highlights US-China competition
/ref>uscc.go
(Nov 2019) Chapter 4: China's Global Ambitions
/ref>David Kirto

Airshow China in Zhuhai The 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) of China's ruling party, aims to accelerate the army's modernization and informationization, in order to improve national security for 2027 (100th anniversary of its ruling party), according to Dean Cheng.Dean Chen
(23 Nov 2020) Chinese Party Sets Bold Military Goal: ‘Mechanized & Informationized’ By 2027
/ref>Dean Chen
(19 May 2021) How China’s Thinking About The Next War
Proposed doctrine: brigade-based, joint MDOKris Osbor
(4 Feb 2022) China is Trying to Steal and Copy U.S. Military Multi-Domain Warfare Tactics
"accompanied by an effort to replicate emerging U.S. strategies and warfare maneuvers" including JADC2 By 2023 China's working-age demographic (a shrinking labor force/ capital savings rate) will start to work against the Party's aspiration for 2027,Deutsche Well
(21 May 2021) China releases population census with enormous implications for the country's future
/ref>Tanner Brow
(17 Jan 2022) China’s Population Crisis Is Complicated. What It Means for the Country’s Economy.
/ref>Evelyn Chen
(17 Jan 2023) China's Population Drops For the First Time In Decades
in 2022 Task & Purpose
(22 Mar 2023) 4 Reasons China's Outta Time to Invade Taiwan
1) Demographics; 2) TSMC; 3) Russia is now the largest oil supplier to China; 4) Ukraine as cautionary example. 60 Minute
(19 Mar 2023) Is the Navy ready? How the U.S. is preparing amid a naval buildup in China
USS NimitzMichael C Horowit
(19 Nov 2021) War by Timeframe: Responding to China's Pacing Challenge
/ref> which, according to Xi Jinping's plan, is for China's military to reach parity with the US military in 2027.Paul McLeary and Alexander War
(20 Nov 2021) U.S. ‘not as advanced’ as China and Russia on hypersonic tech, Space Force general warns
/ref>TAYLOR A. LEE and PETER W. SINGE
(7 Feb 2023) The PLA’s People Problem
"China’s military has long struggled to field quality personnel". As of June 2023 a diplomatic solution is being sought.Humeyra Pamu
(19 Jun 2023) Xi, Blinken agree to stabilise U.S.-China relations in rare Beijing talks
/ref>Fareed Zakaria, GP
(14 Sep 2023) On GPS: Gen. Mark Milley on estimating China's military power
/ref>JACOB HEIM, ZACHARY BURDETTE, AND NATHAN BEAUCHAMP-MUSTAFAGA
(11 Jun 2024) DENIAL IS THE WORST EXCEPT FOR ALL THE OTHERS: GETTING THE U.S. THEORY OF VICTORY RIGHT FOR A WAR WITH CHINA
/ref> #* The International Federation of Robotics reports that China has been the world leader in implementing industrial robots for the past eight years; in 2020 China used almost half the world's industrial robots.Roopinder Tar
(22 Sep 2022) Almost Half of Industrial Robots Are in China
/ref> #** The takeover of a UK semiconductor fab by a Chinese-owned firm has been blocked on national security grounds.Ryan Browne

as reported in [https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/22/11/20/0221224/chinese-takeover-of-uks-largest-chip-plant-blocked-on-national-security-grounds (20 Nov 2022) Chinese Takeover of UK's Largest Chip Plant Blocked on National Security Grounds] #*In 2017 China adopted the National Intelligence Law which obligates Chinese companies to subordinate themselves to intelligence-gathering measures for the state.Reuters World New
(27 June 2017) China passes tough new intelligence law
National Intelligence Law China is militarizing the South China Sea. In 2020 a match-up of the Chinese aircraft carrier ''Liaoning'' (a rebuilt aircraft cruiser) versus the supercarrier is assessed to give the ''Ronald Reagan'' air superiority within one hour.Defense update
(30 Apr 2020) 3 Reasons Chinese Liaoning Will Not Last an Hour Against USS Ronald Reagan Protecting Japan!
/ref>Smerconish
(6 Feb 2023) Chang: Not shooting down balloon could embolden China
'By not shooting down the balloon, "we convince the Chinese we're incapable," says Gordon Chang, author of The Great US-China Tech War. "It could push them to do things which can't be undone." ' #*The 3rd generation GPS network of BeiDou satellites (BDS-3) was completed in July 2020 with the launch of the 30th BDS-3 satellite.Sutirtho Patranobi
(31 Jul 2020) China says its Beidou system now fully operational, to challenge US’s GPS
/ref> The 30th BDS-3 satellite, meant to complete China's own global navigation satellite system,P.W. Singer and Taylor A. Le
(31 March 2020) China’s version of GPS is almost complete. Here's what that means.
/ref> had been previously postponed.Elizabeth Howel

/ref>Adil Bra
(8 May 2024) China's Military Satellites Are Watching America's Every Move
"China has added over 400 satellites in the past two years", 200 with tracking capability. ''See Restrictions on geographic data in China'' #* Satellite images of 4 June 2021 reveal an estimated 250 additional missile silos under construction near Yumen, China, warn specialists at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.Huizhong Wu and Jon Gambrell, The Associated Pres
(30 July 2021) US military warns China is building more nuclear missile silos
/ref> By 2024 China had over 500 nuclear warheads.C. Todd Lopez, DOD New
(18 Sep 2024) With Two Nuclear-Armed Strategic Competitors, U.S. Modernization Top Priority
Summary of Nuclear Triad by Melissa Dalton, UnderSecretary, USAF #*The Defense Intelligence Agency projects that China will at least double its nuclear arsenal and that its production capability will be far expanded in the 2020s.James Anderson (31 July 2020) China's troubling nuclear buildup ''The New York Times'' Op-Ed p. A25. —James Anderson is Acting undersecretary of defense for policyDean Cheng
(28 Oct 2022) China calls for new ‘strategic guidance’ at 20th Party Congress
in a call for strategic deterrence tandoffby 2027 Colin Clar
(18 Jun 2021) Chinese Nuke Modernization Prompts Shift In DoD Strategy
cites SIPRI as authorityDANIEL SHATS and PETER W. SINGER
(5 Oct 2022) The Balance of Power Is Shifting Among Nuclear-Energy Titans
RosAtom vs CNNC, CGN #*China controls 80% of world

rare earth mineral A rare-earth mineral contains one or more rare-earth elements as major metal constituents. Rare-earth minerals are usually found in association with alkaline to peralkaline igneous magmas in pegmatites or with carbonatite intrusives. Perovs ...

production, and routinely floods this market when other nations attempt to ramp up their own rare earth production.Sun Yu and Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Time
(16 Feb 2021) China targets rare earth export curbs to hobble US defense industry
*Gabriel Crossley and Min Zhan

/ref>Small Wars journa
(14 Aug 2021) Letter to the Editor: Critical Afghanistan Assessment
"Now the rare earth minerals in Afghanistan will fall into the hands of the CCP."Daniel L. Davi
(6 Aug 2021): Defense Priorities fellow Daniel Davis BBC to discuss Afghanistan withdrawal
/ref> #**The tech leaders of China are being enlisted to aid ' Socialism with Chinese characteristics' by pledging part of their wealth to 'common prosperity'.Fergus Rya
(26 Aug 2021) China Takes on Its Tech Leaders
/ref> The Cyberspace Administration of China is regulating algorithms on its financial reporting websites which republish foreign financial journalists.Bloomber
(30 Aug 2021) China To Cleanse Online Content That 'Bad-Mouths' Its Economy
/ref> #*Chinese cyber groups are attacking Russia, reports Ben Watson.Ben Watson
(6 Aug 2021) China is hacking Russia
who cite
Sam Bendet's tweet
/ref>Brandi Vincen
(9 Feb 2022) New Operating System Aims to Speed AI to the Battlefield
China has goal of 2030 for Parity with US on AI —Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, for DoD's Artificial Intelligence and Data Accelerator (AIDA) China is accelerating its timeline to take Taiwan.Mallory Shelbourn
(19 Oct 2022) China’s Accelerated Timeline to Take Taiwan Pushing Navy in the Pacific, Says CNO Gilday
/ref>Lee Hsi-min and Eric Le
(3 Nov 2020) Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept, Explained
"The concept’s developer explains the asymmetric approach to Taiwan’s defense". #*149 Chinese fighters and bombers swept over Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) 1–4 October 2021.Colin Clar
(4 Oct 2021) 149 Chinese Fighters, Bombers Sweep Across Taiwan ADIZ In 4 Days
/ref>Harry Halem and Eyck Freyman
(7 Apr 2022) Ukraine Shows Why Taiwan Needs More Air Defense
options: "transferring air-defense systems to Taiwan, funding Taiwan’s domestic air-defense programs, and deploying American-made integrated air-defense technology" Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(8 Apr 2022) Three reasons why defense is beating offense in Ukraine – and why it matters for Taiwan
1) precision-guided firepower 2) sprawling urbanization 3) mass mobilization Taiwan has countered with Civil Air Patrol warnings.Covert Caba
(10 Oct 2021) Can Taiwan Stop a Chinese Invasion?
/ref>Military Aviation Histor
(4 Feb 2018) Air Superiority 2030 - How America Wants To Retain Dominance
Encapsulates the factors for 2030Mike Ye
(20 Oct 2021) China shows off drones recycled from Soviet-era fighter jets
J-6=Mig-19 DronesOren Liebermann, CN

/ref>Heather Penne
(May 2023) Scale, Scope, Speed & Survivability: Winning the Kill Chain Competition
Mitchell Institutem Policy Paper 40 seeks to counter China's Warfighting Strategy of “System Destruction” of "sensor networks, datalinks, C2 architectures, and other nodes" #* China is implementing its plan for 2027: Office of Secretary of Defense (3 Nov 2021) "Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China", Annual report to CongressTara Cop
(3 Nov 2021) China Likely to Have ‘At Least’ 1,000 Nukes by 2030, Pentagon Estimates
CJCS views Taiwan invasion unlikely over next two years. *Office of Secretary of Defens
(3 Nov 2021) Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China
Annual report to Congress China has been reverse-engineering its purchases of Russian materiel, and selling to Russia's defense customers.THOMAS CORBETT and PETER W. SINGE
(3 Apr 2023) China Is Eating Russia’s Lunch in the Defense Market
/ref> #** By November 2022 a strict zero-Covid lockdown policy instituted in 2020 had led to 2022 COVID-19 protests in China; China then allowed use of a locally-developed mRNA vaccine (2 December 2022), in lieu of lockdowns.Brian Yan
(2 December 2022) China Set To Green-Light First mRNA Vaccine
/ref>Rebecca Cohen, Morgan McFall-Johnsen, and Paola Rosa-Aquino
(29 Nov 2022) China's refusal to use Western COVID-19 vaccines is making its protest problems even worse
/ref>Bloomberg

#India: faces Pakistan;Deutsche Welle DW New
(16 Aug 2021) Taliban back in power: What does it mean for the Indo-Pacific region?
/ref> Pakistan can be supplied with Turkey's drones (such as the Bayraktar TB2), which were used with great effect by Azerbaijan against Armenian tanks and Armenian air defenseThe Print Tea
(14 Nov 2020) How drones helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia, and the implications for future modern warfare
/ref> during the

2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was an armed conflict in 2020 that took place in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding occupied territories. It was a major escalation of an unresolved conflict over the region, involvi ...

. In 2010 China deployed 11,000 troops in Gilgit, near Kashmir.Indian Expres
(28 Aug 2010) China deploys 11,000 troops in Gilgit area in Occupied Kashmir
/ref> #*Japan and India have agreed to enhance their bilateral defense cooperation (9 September 2022).Press Trust of Indi

#Japan: faces North Korea;Daishi Abe and Rieko Miki
(14 Aug 2020) Japan wants de facto 'Six Eyes' intelligence status: defense chief
*Masay Kato
(13 Aug 2020) Japan's deeper ties with Five Eyes hinge on how it keeps secrets
/ref> Japan has expressed interest in developing its own F-X fighter program;Brian Burto
(28 Jun 2021) As Allies Design Fighter Aircraft, The United States Faces a Decision
/ref> Brian Burton notes that interoperable materiel is needed for allies and partners of the US, and that the US could constructively influence Japan's impending 20-year development effort with lessons learned from UAVs and air defense, for example. On 26 December 2019, at Putin's annual news conference with foreign media, Hirofumi Sugizaki, a Japanese journalist asked about the end of the INF Treaty and the cooperation of Russia and China on an anti-missile system. Putin characterized the anti-missile system as defensive, and the relation of US and Russia as a 'draw' (ヒキワケ—''hikiwake'').Russia Insight (26 December 2019) Putin Stunned By Words Of Japanese Journalist: What Are You Talking About!?
Video clip: 6:51Colin Clar
(15 Jul 2021) 'Sense Of Crisis' On China-Taiwan: Japan Defense White Paper
Japan draws closer to Taiwan Zack Cooper and Eric Sayer
(12 Jan 2023) JAPAN’S SHIFT TO WAR FOOTING
'2+2 Meeting' of defense/state us/japan bilateral agreements Mike Roger
(4 Mar 2022) China is watching Ukraine closely, the US should watch China
/ref>Allegra Goodwin CNN in Londo

UK Prime Minister "Sunak said it was 'telling' that Putin would not attend" G20 in Indonesia, in light of the

. * Mark Galleot
(11 Nov 2022) Opinion: Putin can cling on to power, but his legend is dead
"Multiple security forces balance each other: in Moscow, for example, the military garrison, a special division of the National Guard and the Kremlin Regiment, all report to different chains of command. The Federal Security Service watches all three – and the Federal Protection Service in turn watch them". * Simone McCarthy, CN

"Putin ... is increasingly isolated".CN
(16 November 2022) Pentagon gives update after missile hits Poland
4 hour Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting with 50 nations 47:21 Japan will compensate companies for not disclosing patents with military applications.Reuter

/ref> In a Joint test, Japan's Cooperative Engagement Capability allowed JS Maya to detect and track a ballistic missile; JS Haguro shot it down.Mike Ye
(22 Nov 2022) Japanese destroyers intercept ballistic missiles in tests with US Navy

Applications of power projection

The ''Texas National Security Review'' projects five scenarios for the global economy:Aaron L. Friedber
(Winter 2021/2022) The Growing Rivalry Between America and China and the Future of Globalization
/ref> # Reglobalization as in the 1980s # Deglobalization away from the trends of the 2000sThe Changing Orde
(9 Feb 2022) —Peter Zeihan: How Deglobalization Works, Full Webinar
video 58:24FORECAST INTERNATIONAL STAFF, FORECAST INTERNATIONAL
(18 Apr 2024) Global defense spending jumped in 2023
/ref> # Globalization with Chinese characteristics # Regional blocs with partially closed tradingMichael Kofma
(Apr 2019) Drivers of Russian Grand Strategy
/ref>Akhil Rames
( Are we witnessing the beginning of de-dollarization?
Caspian Repor
(14 Jun 2022) How Russia could collapse (again)
Local republics could blockade other republics of the Federation to preserve local stability, which appears to be the choice of the people.Clare Sebastian, CN

Russia now selling oil to Asia, six months after sanctions by West. # Shared strategic interests and common political values, which Friedberg judges will be the choice of the Western bloc and its direction for power projection.

Hard power

Examples of hard power projection include: * Showing the flag: the symbolic deployment of military forces to a region for the purposes of demonstrating political interest, resolve, or willingness to take more forceful military action. * Compulsion/deterrence: the use of the threat of military force against another state to either induce it into or dissuade it from pursuing a given policy. In this form, power projection acts as a diplomatic tool, attempting to influence the decision-making process of foreign actors.(26 Jan 2022) Will There Be a War Over Ukraine? 13 Putin Watchers Weigh In
/ref>David M. Herszenhorn and Paul McLear

ala SoFSebastian Sprenge

/ref>Jaroslaw Adamowsk
(9 Jul 2021) Poland could purchase M1 Abrams tanks from US
250 M1A2 SEPv3s, + dozen tracked vehicles, purchase confirme
14 July 2021
*John Vandive

*Paul McLear

State Department approval, so the tanks are not yet available for shipment from Vendor Douglas London, Foreign Affair
(11 Apr 2022) A Shadow War Against Putin
''See Power projection#Gray zone competition for context'' * Punishment: the punitive use of force against another state in response to their pursuit of a given policy. * Armed intervention: the movement of military forces into another nation's territory for the purposes of influencing the internal affairs of the target country short of outright conquest.Leaders
(29 Jan 2022) A war in Ukraine could have global consequences
"The likelihood of China invading Taiwan would surely rise."Anna Nemtsov

/ref>Ivana Kottasová, Tamara Qiblawi and Helen Rega

/ref>Sergey Radchenk
(22 Feb 2022) MOSCOW MUSINGS ON BRINKSMANSHIP FROM STALIN TO PUTIN
/ref> * Conquest: the offensive use of military assets to forcibly occupy territory controlled or claimed by another state.CaspianRepor
(29 Jan 2022) What a Russian assault on Ukraine would look like
video clip 14:41Sam LaGron
(8 Feb 2022) UPDATED: Russian Navy Amphibious Group Enters Black Sea as Warships Mass in the Mediterranean
/ref>Liudas Dapkus and Dasha Litvinov
(19 Feb 2022) Russia ‘uncoiling and poised to strike’ says US defense secretary
/ref>Jack Watling and Nick Reynold
(22 Apr 2022) Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion
26 pagesReuben Johnso
(19 May 2022) Russian attempts to restock its military may be doomed to failure
/ref>Kyle Mizokam
(27 Jan 2022) Russia Won't Start a War With Ukraine Out of the Blue. Look For These 8 Warning Signs.
#Fuel and Ammunition Stockpiles #Cyberwarfare #GPS Jamming, Spoofing #Attack submarine sorties #Electronic warfare #Social media blackout #Little green men Events #Drone reconnaissanceJeremy Herb, Katie Bo Lillis, Barbara Starr and Sean Lyngaas, CNN

/ref>Phil Stewart and Humeyra Pamuk, Reuter

/ref> In 2022 Michael Kofman projected that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be eastward via Donbas, northward from Crimea, and up the Dnieper river to encircle Ukraine's capital Kyiv,Michael Kofma
(24 Jan 2022) Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff With the West
/ref>Karen DeYoung, Dan Lamothe, John Hudson and Shane Harris. The Washington Pos
(5 Feb 2022) Russia could invade Ukraine within days, causing up to 50,000 civilian deaths, U.S. intelligence assessments find
/ref> with a political takeover of Ukraine a likely objective of Russian leadership.''The New York Times'
(24 Feb 2022) Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
/ref> Daniel Treismanbr>(22 Feb 2022) Putin isn't likely to stop here
/ref>Paul Kirb
(23 Feb 2022) Why is Russia ordering troops into Ukraine and what does Putin want?
/ref>Reuter
(23 Feb 2022) Ukraine starts drafting reservists aged 18-60 after president's order
/ref>Jake Harrington and Riley McCab
(1 Feb 2022) Keeping Pace in the Gray ZOne: Three Recommendations for the U.S. Intelligence Community
/ref>Michael Kofma
(23 Feb 2022) Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s armed forces, explains why the Kremlin will seek regime change in Ukraine
/ref> However, in lieu of a political takeover, a decapitation strike is a possible tactic.Valerie Insinn
(24 Feb 2022) Russia aiming to ‘decapitate’ Ukrainian government: US official
/ref>Valerie Insinn
(11 March 2022 at 12:35 PM) Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine
Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, and Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly: 1) Humble “Legacy” Technology Can Still Play a Role Against a Sophisticated Adversary, 2) The Human Element (Still) Matters, and 3) Logistics Are Not OptionalSky New
(28 Apr 2022) Can Russia be pushed out of Ukraine entirely?
Retired Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell 2:25/4:08 use 155mm howitzers, coupled with counterfire radar (i.e. TPQ-53) against Russian artilleryRob Pichet
(29 Jan 2022) How a Russian invasion of Ukraine would reverberate around the world
/ref>Frontline (Mar 15, 2022
Putin's Road to War (full documentary)
53:18 Alexander Vindman has projected a path for Ukraine to retake Crimea.Francis P. Semp
(7 Feb 2023) Alexander Vindman and the Road to World War III
/ref> By 5 April 2023 Ukraine signalled that it might entertain talks with Russia if the Ukrainian counteroffensive reached the border of Crimea.Christopher Miller in Kyiv and Felicia Schwartz in Washingto
(5 Apr 2023) Ukraine 'ready' to talk to Russia on Crimea if counteroffensive succeeds
Barry Rosenber
(20 July 2023) 3-to-5 years from now is the danger time when the US could face both China and Russia
Justin Bronk RUSI(UK) US/Europe power projection

Power projection capabilities

Notes

References

External links

US Army Field Manual 100-10 Chapter 1: Power Projection

{{DEFAULTSORT:Power Projection Power (international relations) Military logistics Military strategy Military doctrines Power (social and political) concepts