
Macroeconomics (from the Greek prefix ''makro-'' meaning "large" + ''economics'') is a branch of
economics
Economics () is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.
Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of economic agents and how economies work. Microeconomics analy ...
dealing with performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an
economy
An economy is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services. In general, it is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with t ...
as a whole.
For example, using interest rates, taxes, and government spending to regulate an economy's growth and stability.
This includes regional, national, and
global economies. According to a 2018 assessment by economists
Emi Nakamura and
Jón Steinsson, economic "evidence regarding the consequences of different macroeconomic policies is still highly imperfect and open to serious criticism."
Macroeconomists study topics such as
GDP (Gross Domestic Product),
unemployment
Unemployment, according to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), is people above a specified age (usually 15) not being in paid employment or self-employment but currently available for work during the refer ...
(including
unemployment rates),
national income
A variety of measures of national income and output are used in economics to estimate total economic activity in a country or region, including gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), net national income (NNI), and adjusted nat ...
,
price indices,
output
Output may refer to:
* The information produced by a computer, see Input/output
* An output state of a system, see state (computer science)
* Output (economics), the amount of goods and services produced
** Gross output in economics, the value ...
,
consumption,
inflation
In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reductio ...
,
saving
Saving is income not spent, or deferred consumption. Methods of saving include putting money aside in, for example, a deposit account, a pension account, an investment fund, or as cash. Saving also involves reducing expenditures, such as recur ...
,
investment,
energy
In physics, energy (from Ancient Greek: ἐνέργεια, ''enérgeia'', “activity”) is the quantitative property that is transferred to a body or to a physical system, recognizable in the performance of work and in the form of hea ...
,
international trade
International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories because there is a need or want of goods or services. (see: World economy)
In most countries, such trade represents a significan ...
, and
international finance
International finance (also referred to as international monetary economics or international macroeconomics) is the branch of financial economics broadly concerned with monetary and macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. In ...
.
Macroeconomics and
microeconomics are the two most general fields in economics.
The United Nations
Sustainable Development Goal 17
Sustainable Development Goal 17 (SDG 17 or Global Goal 17) is about "partnerships for the goals." One of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations in 2015, the official wording is: "Strengthen the means of implement ...
has a target to enhance global macroeconomic stability through policy coordination and coherence as part of the 2030 Agenda.
Development
Origins
Macroeconomics descended from the once divided fields of
business cycle theory and
monetary theory
Monetary economics is the branch of economics that studies the different competing theories of money: it provides a framework for analyzing money and considers its functions (such as medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account), and ...
.
[Dimand (2008).] The
quantity theory of money
In monetary economics, the quantity theory of money (often abbreviated QTM) is one of the directions of Western economic thought that emerged in the 16th-17th centuries. The QTM states that the general price level of goods and services is directl ...
was particularly influential prior to World War II. It took many forms, including the version based on the work of
Irving Fisher:
:
In the typical view of the quantity theory,
money velocity
image:M3 Velocity in the US.png, 300px, Similar chart showing the logged velocity (green) of a broader measure of money M3 that covers M2 plus large institutional deposits. The US no longer publishes official M3 measures, so the chart only runs thr ...
(V) and the quantity of goods produced (Q) would be constant, so any increase in
money supply
In macroeconomics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include Circulation (curren ...
(M) would lead to a direct increase in
price level
The general price level is a hypothetical measure of overall prices for some set of goods and services (the consumer basket), in an economy or monetary union during a given interval (generally one day), normalized relative to some base set. ...
(P). The quantity theory of money was a central part of the classical theory of the economy that prevailed in the early twentieth century.
Austrian School
Ludwig Von Mises
Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises (; 29 September 1881 – 10 October 1973) was an Austrian School economist, historian, logician, and sociologist. Mises wrote and lectured extensively on the societal contributions of classical liberalism. He is ...
's work ''
Theory of Money and Credit
''The Theory of Money and Credit'' is a 1912 economics book written by Ludwig von Mises, originally published in German as ''Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel''. In it Mises expounds on his theory of the origins of money through his regre ...
'', published in 1912, was one of the first books from the
Austrian School
The Austrian School is a heterodox school of economic thought that advocates strict adherence to methodological individualism, the concept that social phenomena result exclusively from the motivations and actions of individuals. Austrian scho ...
to deal with macroeconomic topics.
Keynes and his followers
Macroeconomics, at least in its modern form,
[Blanchard (2011), 580.] began with the publication of ''
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
''The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'' is a book by English economist John Maynard Keynes published in February 1936. It caused a profound shift in economic thought, giving macroeconomics a central place in economic theory an ...
''
written by
John Maynard Keynes
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, ( ; 5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946), was an English economist whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. Originally trained in ...
. When the Great Depression struck, classical economists had difficulty explaining how goods could go unsold and workers could be left unemployed. In classical theory, prices and wages would drop until the market cleared, and all goods and labor were sold. Keynes offered a new theory of economics that explained why markets might not clear, which would evolve (later in the 20th century) into a group of macroeconomic schools of thought known as
Keynesian economics
Keynesian economics ( ; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongly influences economic output ...
– also called Keynesianism or Keynesian theory.
In Keynes' theory, the quantity theory broke down because people and businesses tend to hold on to their cash in tough economic times – a phenomenon he described in terms of
liquidity preferences. Keynes also explained how the
multiplier effect would magnify a small decrease in consumption or investment and cause declines throughout the economy. Keynes also noted the role uncertainty and
animal spirits can play in the economy.
The generation following Keynes combined the macroeconomics of the ''General Theory'' with neoclassical microeconomics to create the
neoclassical synthesis
The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis, or just neo-Keynesianism was a neoclassical economics academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Ke ...
. By the 1950s, most economists had accepted the synthesis view of the macroeconomy.
Economists like
Paul Samuelson
Paul Anthony Samuelson (May 15, 1915 – December 13, 2009) was an American economist who was the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. When awarding the prize in 1970, the Swedish Royal Academies stated that he "h ...
,
Franco Modigliani
Franco Modigliani (18 June 1918 – 25 September 2003) was an Italian-American economist and the recipient of the 1985 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. He was a professor at University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Carnegie Mellon Univ ...
,
James Tobin
James Tobin (March 5, 1918 – March 11, 2002) was an American economist who served on the Council of Economic Advisers and consulted with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and taught at Harvard and Yale Universities. He d ...
, and
Robert Solow
Robert Merton Solow, GCIH (; born August 23, 1924) is an American economist whose work on the theory of economic growth culminated in the exogenous growth model named after him. He is currently Emeritus Institute Professor of Economics at th ...
developed formal Keynesian models and contributed formal theories of consumption, investment, and money demand that fleshed out the Keynesian framework.
Monetarism
Milton Friedman
Milton Friedman (; July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006) was an American economist and statistician who received the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his research on consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and the ...
updated the quantity theory of money to include a role for money demand. He argued that the role of money in the economy was sufficient to explain the
Great Depression, and that aggregate demand oriented explanations were not necessary. Friedman also argued that monetary policy was more effective than fiscal policy; however, Friedman doubted the government's ability to "fine-tune" the economy with monetary policy. He generally favored a policy of steady growth in money supply instead of frequent intervention.
Friedman also challenged the
Phillips curve
The Phillips curve is an economic model, named after William Phillips (economist), William Phillips hypothesizing a correlation between reduction in unemployment and increased rates of wage rises within an economy. While Phillips himself did no ...
relationship between inflation and unemployment. Friedman and
Edmund Phelps (who was not a monetarist) proposed an "augmented" version of the Phillips curve that excluded the possibility of a stable, long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. When the
oil shocks of the 1970s created a high unemployment and high inflation, Friedman and Phelps were vindicated. Monetarism was particularly influential in the early 1980s. Monetarism fell out of favor when central banks found it difficult to target money supply instead of interest rates as monetarists recommended. Monetarism also became politically unpopular when the central banks created recessions in order to slow inflation.
New classical
New classical macroeconomics
New classical macroeconomics, sometimes simply called new classical economics, is a school of thought in macroeconomics that builds its analysis entirely on a neoclassical framework. Specifically, it emphasizes the importance of rigorous foundat ...
further challenged the Keynesian school. A central development in new classical thought came when
Robert Lucas introduced