Hurricane Michelle

Hurricane Michelle was the fifth costliest tropical cyclone in Cuban history and the strongest hurricane of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The thirteenth named storm and seventh hurricane that year, Michelle developed from a tropical wave that had traversed into the western Caribbean Sea on October 29; the wave had initially moved off the coast of Africa 13 days prior. In its early developmental stages, the depression meandered over Nicaragua, later paralleling the Mosquito Coast before intensifying into tropical storm intensity on November 1; Michelle was upgraded to hurricane strength the following day. Shortly after, rapid intensification ensued within favorable conditions, with the storm's central barometric pressure dropping in 29 hours. After a slight fluctuation in strength, Michelle reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of and a minimum pressure of . This tied Michelle with 1999's Lenny as the fourth most powerful November hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, behind only the 1932 Cuba hurricane and 2020 Hurricanes Iota and Eta. At roughly the same time, the hurricane began to accelerate northeastward; this brought the intense hurricane to a Cuban landfall within the Bay of Pigs later that day. Crossing over the island, Michelle was weakened significantly, and was only a Category 1 hurricane upon reentry into the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane later transitioned into an extratropical cyclone over The Bahamas on November 5, before being absorbed by a cold front the following day.

Hurricane Michelle caused widespread devastation across the western Caribbean during its eight-day trek. As a tropical wave, torrential rainfall occurred across Jamaica, causing mudslides and killing two people. Damage in the island country was estimated at $18 million. When the storm drifted over areas of Central America early in its existence, heavy rains isolated numerous villages and damaged infrastructure, affecting areas affected by Hurricane Mitch roughly three years prior. In Honduras and Nicaragua, 14 people were killed, with an additional 62 people unaccounted for. In the Cayman Islands, areas were affected by strong storm surge and flooding, particularly in Grand Cayman, where damage was totaled $28 million.

The majority of damage caused by Michelle occurred in Cuba, where the storm was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the island in over 49 years. Strong storm surge and heavy rainfall disrupted communication networks across the country. High winds and rain also destroyed buildings and damaged the sugar cane crop. At the time, Michelle was the costliest hurricane in Cuban history with an estimated $2 billion in damage; this figure was greatly surpassed by Hurricane Ike nearly seven years later. As a weakening system, Michelle moved past Florida and the Bahamas. Strong waves caused severe beach erosion and winds damaged property. Throughout the entirety of Michelle's track, 22 people were killed, and damage was estimated at $2.43 billion (2001 USD; $  USD). After the season, the name Michelle was retired and was replaced with Melissa for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

Meteorological history

On October 16, 2001, a tropical wave moved westward off the coast of Africa and moved into the Atlantic Ocean. At the time, the wave produced minimal convective and thunderstorm activity. On October 23, the disturbance crossed the Lesser Antilles before moving into the Caribbean Sea while showing minimal signs of tropical development. Three days later, the wave moved into the western Caribbean, spawning a broad low-pressure area off the coast of Nicaragua. At 1800  UTC on October 29, a reconnaissance flight confirmed the development of a tropical depression south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. At the time, convection was displaced primarily to the north of the center of circulation, and the storm was situated in a weak steering pattern; as such, initial forecasts predicted for the depression, designated as ''Tropical Depression Fifteen'', to slowly move generally northward. Later that day, a burst of convection occurred over the circulation center of the depression, indicating an increase in organization. The disturbance meandered over eastern Nicaragua for 36 hours before emerging into the Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias a Dios by 2100 UTC on October 31. Upon emerging into the Caribbean Sea, the depression quickly organized, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the depression to tropical storm strength at 0000 UTC the following day, based on information from a reconnaissance flight prior. As such, the tropical storm was designated with the name ''Michelle''.

Gradual strengthening occurred throughout November 1, as Michelle's cloud tops began to cool as it drifted northward, signifying strengthening. At the time, the NHC predicted that there was a roughly 12 percent chance for the tropical storm to rapidly intensify; by that time the storm had met three of the organization's five criterion for rapid intensification. During the day, fluctuations in convective activity occurred and there were some signs of wind shear affecting the cyclone, but there was a general strengthening trend. Two dropsondes deployed within the system early on November 2 observed hurricane-force winds within Michelle; based on this data the NHC upgraded Michelle to hurricane intensity at 1200 UTC that day, while the storm was situated south-southeast of the Guanahacabibes Peninsula.

A period of rapid intensification began shortly after as Michelle's satellite presentation improved, with the cyclone's minimum barometric pressure falling in 29 hours. At 0000 UTC on November 3, the hurricane attained Category 2 hurricane intensity. At roughly the same time, the hurricane's eye became more apparent on satellite imagery. By 1200 UTC later that day, Michelle had intensified to a Category 4 hurricane. Six hours later, the hurricane weakened to Category 3 intensity, but reached its minimum barometric pressure of . Afterwards, Michelle's central pressure began to rise; despite the trend, its maximum sustained winds also strengthened as it curved northeastward. Despite having its convective organization disrupted and its eye no longer as apparent on November 4, Michelle attained winds of by 0600 UTC that day; these would be the highest sustained winds estimated for the system throughout its existence.

At 1800 UTC on November 4, Michelle made landfall on Cayo Largo del Sur as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of ; this was followed shortly after with a landfall on the Bay of Pigs five hours later as a slightly weaker storm. When Michelle made landfall on the Cuban mainland, it was the strongest landfalling hurricane in Cuban history since the landfall of Hurricane Fox in 1952. At the time, the hurricane's minimum barometric pressure was . Over Cuba, Michelle's center of circulation was significantly disrupted, and as a result the hurricane decreased in intensity; by the time it had emerged into the Atlantic Ocean on November 5, winds were only estimated at . Southwesterly wind shear further inhibited any additional tropical development, and as such Michelle began to transition into an extratropical cyclone. That day, the weakening hurricane made landfalls over Andros Island and Eleuthera Island before becoming fully extratropical by 0000 UTC on November 6, while still maintaining hurricane-force winds. The extratropical system persisted for roughly 18 more hours before it was absorbed by an approaching cold front.

Preparations

Cuba

As Hurricane Michelle approached the Cuban coast, the government of Cuba issued a hurricane watch for the western Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, La Habana, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud at 2100 UTC on November 1. The following day, the same hurricane watch was extended eastward to include all provinces from Pinar del Río to Ciego de Ávila; all hurricane watches in Cuba were upgraded to hurricane warnings at 1100 UTC on November 3. All warnings in Cuba were discontinued once Michelle began to accelerate out to sea at 1200 UTC on November 5.

Prior to reaching the coast, Michelle was expected to be the strongest Cuban tropical cyclone in at least 75 years. The Cuban Red Cross deployed 24,500 volunteers across Cuba to assist civil defense teams in evacuation procedures for potentially affected populations. By November 4, an estimated 590,000 people were evacuated across the country, including 80 percent of the population of the province of Pinar del Río. In Havana

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