The crime drop or crime decline is a pattern observed in many countries whereby rates of many types of

crime In ordinary language, a crime is an unlawful act punishable by a State (polity), state or other authority. The term ''crime'' does not, in modern criminal law, have any simple and universally accepted definition,Farmer, Lindsay: "Crime, definiti ...

declined by 50% or more beginning in the mid to late 1980s and early 1990s. The crime drop is not a new phenomenon emerging in the 1990s. For Europe,

crime statistics Crime statistics refer to systematic, quantitative results about crime, as opposed to crime news or anecdotes. Notably, crime statistics can be the result of two rather different processes: * scientific research, such as criminological studies, vi ...

show a declining pattern since the late

Middle Ages In the history of Europe, the Middle Ages or medieval period lasted approximately from the 5th to the late 15th centuries, similarly to the post-classical period of global history. It began with the fall of the Western Roman Empire and ...

. From the 1960s to the 1980s and 1990s, crime rates rose in all wealthy Western countries before the decline continued. Irrespective of the reason for the increase, this period appears as a relatively short deviation of the long-term decline beginning centuries ago and continuing after the early 1990s. There is no universally accepted explanation for why crime rates are falling, though many hypotheses have been proposed, especially in the United States. Many proposed explanations (such as increased

incarceration Imprisonment or incarceration is the restraint of a person's liberty for any cause whatsoever, whether by authority of the government, or by a person acting without such authority. In the latter case it is considered " false imprisonment". Impri ...

rates or the use of leaded gasoline) have only occurred in specific countries, and cannot explain the decrease in other countries. Most crime experts agree that changes in

policing The police are a constituted body of people empowered by a state with the aim of enforcing the law and protecting the public order as well as the public itself. This commonly includes ensuring the safety, health, and possessions of citizen ...

sentencing In criminal law, a sentence is the punishment for a crime ordered by a trial court after conviction in a criminal procedure, normally at the conclusion of a trial. A sentence may consist of imprisonment, a fine, or other sanctions. Sentences f ...

policies can also be excluded.

Historical context

The crime drop is not a new phenomenon emerging in the 1990s. For Europe,

show a declining pattern since the late

. From the 1960s to the 1980s and 1990s, crime rates rose in all wealthy Western countries before the decline continued.

Decline since the Middle Ages in Western Europe

Since the early 2000s, the field of

criminology Criminology (from Latin , 'accusation', and Ancient Greek , ''-logia'', from λόγος ''logos'', 'word, reason') is the interdisciplinary study of crime and deviant behaviour. Criminology is a multidisciplinary field in both the behaviou ...

has noted a decline of

homicide Homicide is an act in which a person causes the death of another person. A homicide requires only a Volition (psychology), volitional act, or an omission, that causes the death of another, and thus a homicide may result from Accident, accidenta ...

s in Europe. Manuel Eisner published a respective study in 2003. The diagram shows Eisner's data, with statistics from

Our World in Data Our World in Data (OWID) is a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems such as poverty, disease, hunger, war, climate change, population growth, existential risks, and inequality. It is a project of the Global Cha ...

included, for the respective countries. The numbers are cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The diagram shows a dramatic decline of homicide rates since the year 1300. Rates dropped from between 20 and 70 cases per 100,000 to about one.

Increase between the late 1950s and early 1990s

In the second half of the 20th century, most countries of the

Western World The Western world, also known as the West, primarily refers to various nations and state (polity), states in Western Europe, Northern America, and Australasia; with some debate as to whether those in Eastern Europe and Latin America also const ...

faced an increase of

violent crime A violent crime, violent felony, crime of violence or crime of a violent nature is a crime in which an offender or perpetrator uses or threatens to use harmful Force (law), force upon a victim. This entails both crimes in which the violence, vio ...

, like

assault In the terminology of law, an assault is the act of causing physical harm or consent, unwanted physical contact to another person, or, in some legal definitions, the threat or attempt to do so. It is both a crime and a tort and, therefore, may ...

robbery Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force, or use of fear. According to common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person o ...

, and

. In some countries, this period started in the late 1950s and in some in the early 1960s. It took until the early 1990s to overcome this rise. Numerous attempts have been made to explain this period, but no general agreement has been reached, as some of these explanations contradict each other. Irrespective of the reason for the increase, this period appears as a relatively short deviation of the long-term decline beginning centuries ago and continuing after the early 1990s.

Global level

Homicide rates as comparative value

Because of its relative unambiguousness and its smaller dark figures, intentional homicide is particularly amenable to long term and geographic (cross-national) comparisons. Homicide is an act that meets with virtually universal condemnation, and homicide statistics are accordingly considered to be relatively reliable and valid – both at the national level and for longitudinal and cross-national comparisons. As a readily measurable indicator, homicide is both a reasonable proxy for

and a robust indicator of levels of violence within states. To bridge over remaining differences, the

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC; French language, French: ''Office des Nations unies contre la drogue et le crime'') is a United Nations office that was established in 1997 as the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention ...

(UNODC) developed a framework for the definition and classification of unlawful killings, both in conflict and non-conflict situations, the ''International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes'' (ICCS). In short, homicide is defined in ICCS as "unlawful death inflicted upon a person with the intent to cause death or serious injury".

Decline since the early 1990s

The

investigates the international development of crime using homicide rates as indicator. Both diagrams in this paragraph are from the ''Global Study on Homicide 2019''. A decline has been observed in the regions Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, and Asia. In Europe, the decline was most evident. Here, the rates dropped nearly by two thirds, from 8.8 cases per 100,000 per year in 1994 to below 3 in 2017. On a world level, there was only a small decline, from 7.4 in 1993 to 6 in 2007. Since then, the rates stagnated. The reason is that there are regions with increases counterbalancing the declines of other regions. Homicides increased in Central and South America, especially in the Caribbean.

El Salvador El Salvador, officially the Republic of El Salvador, is a country in Central America. It is bordered on the northeast by Honduras, on the northwest by Guatemala, and on the south by the Pacific Ocean. El Salvador's capital and largest city is S ...

and

Jamaica Jamaica is an island country in the Caribbean Sea and the West Indies. At , it is the third-largest island—after Cuba and Hispaniola—of the Greater Antilles and the Caribbean. Jamaica lies about south of Cuba, west of Hispaniola (the is ...

topped the list, with 61.8 and 57 cases per 100,000 inhabitants respectively in 2017. No data are available for Africa and Pacific countries due to limited and unreliable data.

Development by region

On average, international crime declines from 1995 to 2004 were as follows: 77.1 percent in theft from cars, 60.3 percent in theft from person, 26.0 percent in burglary, 20.6 percent in assault and 16.8 percent in

car theft Motor vehicle theft or car theft (also known as a grand theft auto in the United States) is the Crime, criminal act of Theft, stealing or attempting to steal a motor vehicle. In 2020, there were 810,400 vehicles reported stolen in the United ...

. The crime drop since the early 1990s has occurred in many countries, including the United States, the

United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...

, and

New Zealand New Zealand () is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It consists of two main landmasses—the North Island () and the South Island ()—and List of islands of New Zealand, over 600 smaller islands. It is the List of isla ...

Germany

According to German police statistics on crime, cases overall peaked in 1993. Since then, they dropped by 20% from 8,336 per 100,000 inhabitants to 6,710 in 2018. (All rates for Germany mentioned here include attempts.) ''Criminal offenses against life'' declined by 40% from 6.3 in 1993 to 3.7 in 2012 but rose again to 3.9 in 2018. Theft dropped by 54% from 5,126 cases in 1993 to 2,338 in 2018. The statistical group ''violent crime'' did not peak in 1993 but in 2007 with 264.7 cases per 100,000. Until 2018 they dropped by 15% to 223.9.

United States

In the United States, for example, violent crime rates have fallen by over 50% in many major U.S. cities since these rates peaked in the early 1990s, often referred to as the "Great Crime Decline". In

New York City New York, often called New York City (NYC), is the most populous city in the United States, located at the southern tip of New York State on one of the world's largest natural harbors. The city comprises five boroughs, each coextensive w ...

, these rates had dropped by 75% from the early 1990s to 2010. In the United States, a second decline in the crime rate was also observed, with

rates declining first from 1994 to 2002, and then again from 2007 to 2011. The crime rate in Los Angeles decreased from 1993 onward, including e.g. a decrease in the crime rate of 10% during the first six months of 1998.

Proposed explanations

There is no universally accepted explanation for why crime rates are falling, though many hypotheses have been proposed, especially in the United States. Many proposed explanations (such as increased

rates or the use of leaded gasoline) have only occurred in specific countries, and cannot explain the decrease in other countries. Most crime experts agree that changes in

policies can also be excluded. One article proposes four tests that a proposed explanation should be required to pass: #The Cross-National Test: The hypothesis should explain why the crime drop is happening in multiple countries; e.g. Canada and the US have experienced very similar crime drops, which eliminates potential causes that do not apply to both countries. #The Prior Crime Increase Test: The hypothesis should not contradict the fact that many crimes were increasing prior to the 1990s; e.g. a proposed explanation that applied equally to earlier time periods would be eliminated. #The e-Crimes and Phone Theft Test: The hypothesis should account for the fact that some specific types of crime have not declined during the crime drop; e.g. hypotheses that focus on the number or motivation of potential offenders would be expected to affect all types of crime equally. #The Variable Trajectories Test: The hypothesis should not contradict the differences between countries in the timing, trajectory, and composition of crimes; e.g. a proposed explanation that occurs at different times in different countries should have a corresponding difference in the timing of the crime drops in those countries

Environmental factors

The lead–crime hypothesis proposed a link between elevated

blood lead level Blood lead level (BLL), is a measure of the amount of lead in the blood. Lead is a toxic heavy metal and can cause neurological damage, especially among children, at any detectable level. High lead levels cause decreased vitamin D and haemo ...

s in children and later increases in crime. Children exposed to forms of

lead Lead () is a chemical element; it has Chemical symbol, symbol Pb (from Latin ) and atomic number 82. It is a Heavy metal (elements), heavy metal that is density, denser than most common materials. Lead is Mohs scale, soft and Ductility, malleabl ...

at young ages are hypothesized to be more likely to develop

learning disabilities Learning disability, learning disorder, or learning difficulty (British English) is a condition in the brain that causes difficulties comprehending or processing information and can be caused by several different factors. Given the "difficulty ...

attention deficit hyperactivity disorder Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity, and emotional dysregulation that are excessive and pervasive, impairing in multiple con ...

, and problems with impulse control. These problems are suggested to lead to the commission of more crimes as these children reach adulthood, especially

Air pollution Air pollution is the presence of substances in the Atmosphere of Earth, air that are harmful to humans, other living beings or the environment. Pollutants can be Gas, gases like Ground-level ozone, ozone or nitrogen oxides or small particles li ...

has been found to highly correlate with increased aggression and higher crime rates with one study detailing that a 10% reduction in PM_2.5 and

ozone Ozone () (or trioxygen) is an Inorganic compound, inorganic molecule with the chemical formula . It is a pale blue gas with a distinctively pungent smell. It is an allotrope of oxygen that is much less stable than the diatomic allotrope , break ...

could result in $1.8billion in crime reduction. Multiple hypotheses have been developed to ascertain whether it is due to the aesthetic impact of air pollution which reduces ethicality or some biological factor related to PM_2.5 and ozone exposure

neurotoxicity Neurotoxicity is a form of toxicity in which a biological, chemical, or physical agent produces an adverse effect on the structure or function of the central and/or peripheral nervous system. It occurs when exposure to a substance – specifical ...

. This may be correlated to the observed loss of IQ points in children who are heavily exposed to air pollution.

Demographics

Another explanation proposes that the international homicide decline is partially a consequence of the aging of populations around the world, which is causing a reduction in the size of the youth relative to other age groups. Since youth tend to commit the majority of violent crimes, and since older members of societies tend to be the more orderly and peaceful, as populations grow older their violence rates tend to decline. However, the most violent countries are not yet enjoying the pacifying benefits of the aging of their populations because other strong criminogenic forces are interfering with their homicide trends.

Abortion

The legalized abortion and crime effect popularized by ''

Freakonomics ''Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything'' is the debut non-fiction book by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and ''New York Times'' journalist Stephen J. Dubner. Published on April 12, 2005, by Wil ...

'' coauthor Steven Levitt posits that the drop in violent crime in the United States correlates with the legalization of abortion in the Supreme Court ruling on Roe v Wade in 1973, due to fewer children being born to parents who were unwilling or unable to care for them. Therefore, the theory argues that with fewer children being affected by 'broken homes' the effect was to produce more well adjusted children and when they matured, they wouldn't cause as much crime. However, this theory neglects to explain the falling crime rates in countries around the world during the same time period that had no association with abortion measures.

Drug use and demand

Alfred Blumstein argues that part of the drop in the United States' violent crime rate is due to declining demand for

crack cocaine Crack cocaine, commonly known simply as crack, and also known as rock, is a free base form of the stimulant cocaine that can be Smoking, smoked. Crack offers a short, intense Euphoria (emotion), high to smokers. The ''Manual of Adolescent Sub ...

. A 2014 report by the

Home Office The Home Office (HO), also known (especially in official papers and when referred to in Parliament) as the Home Department, is the United Kingdom's interior ministry. It is responsible for public safety and policing, border security, immigr ...

stated that changes in demand for illegal drugs (specifically,

heroin Heroin, also known as diacetylmorphine and diamorphine among other names, is a morphinan opioid substance synthesized from the Opium, dried latex of the Papaver somniferum, opium poppy; it is mainly used as a recreational drug for its eupho ...

) were a major contributor to the crime drop in the United Kingdom.

Economic factors

The mainstream view among criminologists is that unemployment and poverty are strongly related to crime, because a decrease in opportunities for legal employment, in theory, should increase the frequency of illegal employment. Multiple studies of the United States, for example, have found that the improvement of the American economy coincided with a drop in crime throughout the 1990s. A 2015 Brennan Center for Justice report, however, estimated that no more than 5 percent of the 1990s crime drop in the United States was attributable to changes in unemployment. The view that higher unemployment rates cause higher crime rates has also been challenged by the fact that the United States crime rate reached a 40-year low in 2010, despite America's lagging economy.

Immigration

Studies of the United States have shown that increases in the concentration of immigrants are associated with decreases in violent crime rates, especially

and

. This relationship suggests that increasing

immigration to the United States Immigration to the United States has been a major source of population growth and Culture of the United States, cultural change throughout much of history of the United States, its history. As of January 2025, the United States has the la ...

may be responsible for part of the recent drop in violent crime rates in the United States.

Incarceration

A 2004 study found that 58 percent of the drop in violent crime during the 1990s was due to incarceration. A 2015

Brennan Center for Justice The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law (NYU Law) is a liberal or progressive nonprofit law and public policy institute. The organization is named after Supreme Court Justice William J. Brennan Jr. The Brennan Cente ...

report found that increased incarceration was responsible for about 5% of the crime drop in the United States during the 1990s, and for essentially none of the crime drop there since 2000. Commentators and academics who question the role of incarceration in the crime drop have noted that

Canada Canada is a country in North America. Its Provinces and territories of Canada, ten provinces and three territories extend from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and northward into the Arctic Ocean, making it the world's List of coun ...

's crime rates followed similar trends as those in the United States during the 1990s; in contrast, Canada's incarceration rate did not change significantly during this time, while that of the United States increased significantly. In 2009, Steven Messner and Richard Rosenfeld found that incarceration was negatively related to burglary rates "...only after unusual policy interventions, such as Italy's 2006 clemency measure that dramatically reduced the size of its prison population."

Policing

Some have proposed that changes in policing practices (e.g. the adoption of

broken windows policing In criminology, the broken windows theory states that visible signs of crime, antisocial behavior and civil disorder create an Urban area, urban environment that encourages further crime and disorder, including serious crimes. The theory sugges ...

) were responsible for the crime drop in the United States, especially in New York City. However, Canada did not change its policing practices significantly prior to their crime drop, which casts doubt on the extent to which policing was responsible for this phenomenon. Some of the most popular claims about policing reducing violent crime are not supported by the evidence. Levitt (2004) estimates that increases in the number of police accounted for between 5 and 6% of the crime drop in the United States during the 1990s. A 2007 study found that misdemeanor arrests were negatively associated with changes in total homicide rates in New York City.

Security hypothesis

A 2014 article in '' Crime and Justice'' reported that the "security hypothesis" was the best explanation for the drop out of the 17 hypotheses tested. This hypothesis proposes that improved and more widespread security devices, like electronic

immobilizer An immobiliser or immobilizer is an electronic security device fitted to a motor vehicle that prevents the engine from being started unless the correct key (transponder or smart key) is present. This prevents the vehicle from being " hot wir ...

s and

central locking Power door locks (also known as electric door locks or central locking) allow the driver or front passenger to simultaneously lock or unlock all the doors of an automobile or truck, by pressing a button or flipping a switch. Power door locks we ...

, were responsible for a large part of the crime drop by preventing numerous crimes. Consistent with this hypothesis, attempted crime has also been declining, suggesting that would-be criminals are becoming discouraged by improved security.

Combinations

Blumstein & Wallman (2006) conclude that a complex interaction between "prisons, drugs, guns, policing, economics," and "demography, including abortion" is the best explanation for the crime drop in the United States.

Francis Fukuyama Francis Yoshihiro Fukuyama (; born October 27, 1952) is an American political scientist, political economist, and international relations scholar, best known for his book '' The End of History and the Last Man'' (1992). In this work he argues th ...

proposed the following account for the crime increase between the 1950s and the 1990s: postwar economic expansions produced prosperous and peaceable years in the 1950s. However, in short order came

decolonization Decolonization is the undoing of colonialism, the latter being the process whereby Imperialism, imperial nations establish and dominate foreign territories, often overseas. The meanings and applications of the term are disputed. Some scholar ...

of most of Africa, much of the Caribbean, and parts of South America and the Middle East; the

Vietnam War The Vietnam War (1 November 1955 – 30 April 1975) was an armed conflict in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia fought between North Vietnam (Democratic Republic of Vietnam) and South Vietnam (Republic of Vietnam) and their allies. North Vietnam w ...

and youthful rebellions of the 1960s; the civil, women's, and

gay rights Rights affecting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) people vary greatly by country or jurisdiction—encompassing everything from the legal recognition of same-sex marriage to the death penalty for homosexuality. Not ...

movements; economic transformations including the OPEC oil embargoes of the 1970s, massive economic restructuring, and

globalization Globalization is the process of increasing interdependence and integration among the economies, markets, societies, and cultures of different countries worldwide. This is made possible by the reduction of barriers to international trade, th ...

; and vastly increased movements of people between countries. Fukuyama argues, in retrospect this has been all too much to be absorbed in a short time.

References

External links

Global Study on Homicide
from

Homicides
on

International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes (ICCS)
developed by

Violence Research Centre
on

University of Cambridge The University of Cambridge is a Public university, public collegiate university, collegiate research university in Cambridge, England. Founded in 1209, the University of Cambridge is the List of oldest universities in continuous operation, wo ...

What Caused the Great Crime Decline in the U.S.?
by Matt Ford, 15 April 2016,

The Atlantic Monthly ''The Atlantic'' is an American magazine and multi-platform publisher based in Washington, D.C. It features articles on politics, foreign affairs, business and the economy, culture and the arts, technology, and science. It was founded in 1857 ...

.
What's Behind The Decline In Crime?
by Neil Howe, 28 May 2015,

Forbes Magazine ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine founded by B. C. Forbes in 1917. It has been owned by the Hong Kong–based investment group Integrated Whale Media Investments since 2014. Its chairman and editor-in-chief is Steve Forbes. The c ...

. Crime Crime statistics