The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a

non-governmental organization A non-governmental organization (NGO) is an independent, typically nonprofit organization that operates outside government control, though it may get a significant percentage of its funding from government or corporate sources. NGOs often focus ...

, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a

recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be tr ...

and upward before an expansion. The per cent change year over year of the Leading Economic Index is a lagging indicator of the market directions. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report What Predicts U.S. Recessions? uses each component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions. Revisions to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new Leading Credit Index ... etc. * The

United States Department of Labor The United States Department of Labor (DOL) is one of the executive departments of the U.S. federal government. It is responsible for the administration of federal laws governing occupational safety and health, wage and hour standards, unemp ...

’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report * The

’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance * The

United States Census Bureau The United States Census Bureau, officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the Federal statistical system, U.S. federal statistical system, responsible for producing data about the American people and American economy, econ ...

’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders * The

’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders * The

’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report * The difference (spread) between the interest rates of 10-year United States Treasury notes and the federal funds rate * The Conference Board's Leading Credit Index, itself a composite index of six financial indicators, e.g. yield spreads and investor sentiment * The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including: supplier deliveries, imports, production, inventories, new orders, new export orders, order backlogs, prices and employment. * The

S&P 500 The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and in ...

* The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's consumer expectations

References

External links

The Conference Board's Global Business Cycle Indicators

OECD leading indicator statistics

Macroeconomic forecasting Macroeconomic indicators {{macroeconomics-stub

See also

References

External links