__NOTOC__
The Climate Forecast System or coupled forecast system (CFS) is a medium to long range
numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to weather forecasting, predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of comput ...
and a
climate model
Numerical climate models (or climate system models) are mathematical models that can simulate the interactions of important drivers of climate. These drivers are the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. Scientists use climate models to st ...
run by the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate, and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to government agencies and private users. The centers f ...
(NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales.
Climate Forecast System Introduction
/ref> Version 2 became operational as CFSv2 in 2011.
Overview
CFSv2 is run once daily at NCEP, at multiple time scales. The medium-range model forecasts in one-week intervals out to four weeks, while the longer-range scale forecasts on three-month moving average
In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set. Variations include: #Simpl ...
s out some nine months. The shorter scale has some overlap with the Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Operation
The mathematical model is ...
, NAVGEM
The Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is a global numerical weather prediction computer simulation run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. This mathematical model is run four times a day and prod ...
and FIM models (among several other medium-range models) that the US government runs for operational forecast purposes.
"Coupled" refers to the fact that the model couples atmospheric
An atmosphere () is a layer of gases that envelop an astronomical object, held in place by the gravity of the object. A planet retains an atmosphere when the gravity is great and the temperature of the atmosphere is low. A stellar atmosphere ...
to oceanic modeling. Its forecasts are derived from a 16-member ensemble, with each member initialized on a lead of several days of conditions. The CFSv2 offers output that can be masked to suppress forecasts made with insufficient skill.
Among the variables made available to the public include precipitation and surface temperature (both of which are available both on a global spatial scale and a continental one), winds at 200 and 850 hectopascals (hPa), and heights at 500 hPa (all of which are available only at the global or hemispheric scale). Output is rendered as deviation from normal.
See also
* Model for prediction across scales (MPAS)
* Community Earth System Model
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully coupled numerical simulation of the Earth system consisting of atmospheric, ocean, ice, land surface, carbon cycle, and other components. CESM includes a climate model providing state-of-art simu ...
(CESM)
References
External links
CFS homepage
*
CFS weekly forecast output
CPC seasonal forecasts
NCDC data
*
NOMADS data access
{{Computer modeling
National Weather Service numerical models