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Climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in Global surface temperature, global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in ...
is particularly threatening for the long-term habitability of the island country of
Tuvalu Tuvalu ( ) is an island country in the Polynesian subregion of Oceania in the Pacific Ocean, about midway between Hawaii and Australia. It lies east-northeast of the Santa Cruz Islands (which belong to the Solomon Islands), northeast of Van ...
, which has a land area of only and an average elevation of less than above
sea level Mean sea level (MSL, often shortened to sea level) is an mean, average surface level of one or more among Earth's coastal Body of water, bodies of water from which heights such as elevation may be measured. The global MSL is a type of vertical ...
, with the highest point of
Niulakita Niulakita is the southernmost island of Tuvalu, and also the name of the only village on this island. Niulakita has a population of 36 (2022 Census). The residents of Niulakita have moved to the island from Niutao. Niulakita is represented in ...
being about above sea level. Potential threats to the country due to climate change include
rising sea levels The sea level has been rising from the end of the last ice age, which was around 20,000 years ago. Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by , with an increase of per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had e ...
, increasingly severe
tropical cyclones A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its ...
, high temperatures, and
drought A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D.  Jiang, A.  Khan, W.  Pokam Mba, D.  Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...
.
King tide A king tide is an especially high spring tide, especially the perigean spring tides which occur three or four times a year. King tide is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. The expression originated in Australia, Ne ...
s (
Perigean spring tide A perigean spring tide is a tide that occurs three or four times per year when a perigee (the point nearest Earth reached by the Moon during its 27.3-day elliptic orbit) coincides with a spring tide (when the Sun, the Moon, and Earth are nearly ...
) can combine with storm surges and the rising sea level to inundate the low lying atolls. Tuvalu is widely considered one of the first countries likely to be significantly impacted by
rising sea levels The sea level has been rising from the end of the last ice age, which was around 20,000 years ago. Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by , with an increase of per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had e ...
due to global
climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in Global surface temperature, global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in ...
. According to some estimates, the highest tides could regularly flood 50% of the land area of national capital
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
by the mid-21st century, and 95% by 2100. The rising saltwater table could also destroy deep rooted food crops such as
coconut The coconut tree (''Cocos nucifera'') is a member of the palm tree family (biology), family (Arecaceae) and the only living species of the genus ''Cocos''. The term "coconut" (or the archaic "cocoanut") can refer to the whole coconut palm, ...
, pulaka, and
taro Taro (; ''Colocasia esculenta'') is a root vegetable. It is the most widely cultivated species of several plants in the family Araceae that are used as vegetables for their corms, leaves, stems and Petiole (botany), petioles. Taro corms are a ...
before they're overtaken by actual flooding. Meanwhile, one 2018 study from the
University of Auckland The University of Auckland (; Māori: ''Waipapa Taumata Rau'') is a public research university based in Auckland, New Zealand. The institution was established in 1883 as a constituent college of the University of New Zealand. Initially loc ...
suggested that Tuvalu may remain habitable over the next century, finding that the country's islands have even grown in area overall in recent decades, though the authors stressed that "Climate change remains one of the single greatest environmental threats to the livelihood and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific" and that "Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations". The Human Rights Measurement Initiative finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in the Tuvalu greatly (5.4 out of 6). Human rights experts provided that the climate crisis has impacted food, water, and housing security as well as forced migration. The installed PV production capacity in
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
in 2020 was 735 kW compared to 1800 kW of diesel (16% penetration). The South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) suggests that, while Tuvalu is vulnerable to climate change, environmental problems such as population growth and poor
coastal management Coastal management is defence against flooding and erosion, and techniques that stop erosion to claim lands. Protection against rising sea levels in the 21st century is crucial, as sea level rise accelerates due to climate change. Changes in s ...
also affect sustainable development. SOPAC ranks the country as extremely vulnerable using the Environmental Vulnerability Index.


Greenhouse gas emissions

On 27 November 2015 the Government of Tuvalu announced its intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) in relation to the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) under provisions of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the UN process for negotiating an agreement to limit dangerous climate change. It is an international treaty among countries to combat "dangerous human interference with th ...
(UNFCCC):


Impacts on the natural environment

Tuvalu faces challenges to its natural environment which will be exacerbated by climate change: Coastal erosion,
saltwater intrusion Saltwater intrusion is the movement of saline water into freshwater aquifers, which can lead to groundwater quality degradation, including drinking water sources, and other consequences. Saltwater intrusion can naturally occur in coastal aquifers, ...
and increasing vector and water borne diseases due to sea level rise.


Climate systems that affect Tuvalu

Tuvalu participates in the operations of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). The climate of the Pacific region at the equator is influenced by a number of factors; the science of which is the subject of continuing research. The SPREP described the climate of Tuvalu as being: The sea level in Tuvalu varies as a consequence of a wide range of atmospheric and oceanographic influences. The 2011 report of the ''Pacific Climate Change Science Program'' published by the Australian Government, describes a strong zonal (east‑to-west) sea-level slope along the equator, with sea level west of the International Date Line (180° longitude) being about a half metre higher than found in the eastern equatorial Pacific and South American coastal regions. The trade winds that push surface water westward create this zonal tilting of sea level on the equator. Below the equator a higher sea level can also be found about 20° to 40° south (Tuvalu is spread out from 6° to 10° south). The ''Pacific Climate Change Science Program'' Report (2011) describes the year-by-year volatility in the sea-level as resulting from the
El Niño–Southern Oscillation El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cyc ...
(ENSO): The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation is a climate switch phenomenon that results in changes from periods of La Niña to periods of El Niño. This has an effect on sea levels as El Niño events can actually result in sea levels falling by 20 - 30 centimeters as compared to the sea level during a La Niña events. For example, in 2000 there was a switch from periods of downward pressure of El Niño on sea levels to an upward pressure of La Niña on sea levels, which upward pressure causes more frequent and higher high tide levels. The
Perigean spring tide A perigean spring tide is a tide that occurs three or four times per year when a perigee (the point nearest Earth reached by the Moon during its 27.3-day elliptic orbit) coincides with a spring tide (when the Sun, the Moon, and Earth are nearly ...
(often called a
king tide A king tide is an especially high spring tide, especially the perigean spring tides which occur three or four times a year. King tide is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. The expression originated in Australia, Ne ...
) can result in seawater flooding low-lying areas of the islands of Tuvalu.


Temperature and weather changes

A report in 2011 concluded in relation to Tuvalu that over the course of the 21st century: * Surface air temperature and sea‑surface temperature are projected to continue to increase (very high confidence). * Annual and seasonal mean rainfall is projected to increase (high confidence). * The intensity and frequency of days of extreme heat are projected to increase (very high confidence). * The intensity and frequency of days of extreme rainfall are projected to increase (high confidence). * The incidence of drought is projected to decrease (moderate confidence). * Tropical cyclone numbers are projected to decline in the south-east Pacific Ocean basin (0–40ºS, 170ºE–130ºW) (moderate confidence).


Sea level rise

Sea level observation to collect data for the purpose of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) has been made at two locations within the Funafuti lagoon. In 1978 a tide gauge was installed at
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
by the
University of Hawaii A university () is an educational institution, institution of tertiary education and research which awards academic degrees in several Discipline (academia), academic disciplines. ''University'' is derived from the Latin phrase , which roughly ...
. The University of Hawai'i Sea Level Center (UHSLC) operated a tide gauge from November 1979 until December 2001. Since June 1993 the National Tidal Centre of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has operated an Aquatrak acoustic gauge. This was done due to the uncertainty as to the accuracy of the data from this tide gauge. It was installed by the Australian National Tidal Facility (NTF) as part of the AusAID-sponsored South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project. The two records were synthesised into a single data source by averaging the difference between the two records over the period during which both gauges operated simultaneously. The analysis of years of sea level data from Funafuti, identified that the sea level rise rate was 5.9 mm per year (in the years to September 2008) and the sea level in the Funafuti area rose approximately 9.14 cm during that period of time. The analysis of years of sea level data identified the effect of the four
El Niño EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...
events that took place during that period, including a very severe one in 1997/98 that generated a significant sea level drop in the Tuvalu sea level data. The usual positive (rising) sea level trends were changed to negative values (falling) for several months due to the effect of the El Niño event. There is an inverted barometric pressure effect on sea level during a severe El Niño event due to the high
air pressure Atmospheric pressure, also known as air pressure or barometric pressure (after the barometer), is the pressure within the atmosphere of Earth. The Standard atmosphere (unit), standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure defined as , whi ...
in the western Pacific. The highest elevation is above sea level on
Niulakita Niulakita is the southernmost island of Tuvalu, and also the name of the only village on this island. Niulakita has a population of 36 (2022 Census). The residents of Niulakita have moved to the island from Niutao. Niulakita is represented in ...
, which gives Tuvalu the second-lowest maximum elevation of any country (after the
Maldives The Maldives, officially the Republic of Maldives, and historically known as the Maldive Islands, is an Archipelagic state, archipelagic country in South Asia located in the Indian Ocean. The Maldives is southwest of Sri Lanka and India, abou ...
). However, the highest elevations are typically in narrow storm dunes on the ocean side of the islands which are prone to over topping in
tropical cyclones A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its ...
, such as occurred with Cyclone Bebe.Bureau of Meteorology (1975) ''Tropical Cyclones in the Northern Australian Regions 1971-1972'' Australian Government Publishing Service In March 2015 the storm surge created by
Cyclone Pam Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam was the second List of the most intense tropical cyclones, most intense tropical cyclone of the South Pacific Ocean in terms of sustained winds and is regarded as one of the worst natural disasters in the history of ...
resulted in waves of breaking over the reef of the outer islands caused damage to houses, crops and infrastructure. On Nui the sources of fresh water were destroyed or contaminated. Tuvalu is also affected by
perigean spring tide A perigean spring tide is a tide that occurs three or four times per year when a perigee (the point nearest Earth reached by the Moon during its 27.3-day elliptic orbit) coincides with a spring tide (when the Sun, the Moon, and Earth are nearly ...
events (often called a
king tide A king tide is an especially high spring tide, especially the perigean spring tides which occur three or four times a year. King tide is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. The expression originated in Australia, Ne ...
), which raise the sea level higher than a normal
high tide Tides are the rise and fall of sea levels caused by the combined effects of the gravitational forces exerted by the Moon (and to a much lesser extent, the Sun) and are also caused by the Earth and Moon orbiting one another. Tide tables ...
. The highest peak tide recorded by the
Tuvalu Meteorological Service The Tuvalu Meteorological Service (TMS) is the principal meteorological observatory of Tuvalu and is responsible for providing weather services to the islands of Tuvalu. A meteorological office was established on Funafuti at the time the islands of ...
was on 24 February 2006 and again on 19 February 2015. As a result of historical sea level rise, the
king tide A king tide is an especially high spring tide, especially the perigean spring tides which occur three or four times a year. King tide is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. The expression originated in Australia, Ne ...
events lead to flooding of low-lying areas, which is compounded when sea levels are further raised by
La Niña LA most frequently refers to Los Angeles, the second most populous city in the United States of America. La, LA, or L.A. may also refer to: Arts and entertainment Music *La (musical note), or A, the sixth note *"L.A.", a song by Elliott Smit ...
effects or local storms and waves. In the future, sea level rise may threaten to submerge the nation entirely as it is estimated that a sea level rise of in the next 100 years could make Tuvalu uninhabitable.Hunter, J. A. (2002)
Note on Relative Sea Level Change at Funafuti, Tuvalu
. Retrieved 13 May 2006.
The atolls have shown resilience to gradual sea-level rise, with atolls and reef islands being able to grow under current climate conditions by generating sufficient sand and broken coral that accumulates and gets dumped on the islands during cyclones. There remains the risk that the dynamic response of atolls and reef islands does not result in stable islands as
tropical cyclones A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its ...
can strip the low-lying islands of their vegetation and soil. Tepuka Vili Vili
islet An islet ( ) is generally a small island. Definitions vary, and are not precise, but some suggest that an islet is a very small, often unnamed, island with little or no vegetation to support human habitation. It may be made of rock, sand and/ ...
of
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
atoll was devastated by Cyclone Meli in 1979, with all its vegetation and most of its sand swept away during the cyclone. Vasafua islet, part of the Funafuti Conservation Area, was severely damaged by
Cyclone Pam Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam was the second List of the most intense tropical cyclones, most intense tropical cyclone of the South Pacific Ocean in terms of sustained winds and is regarded as one of the worst natural disasters in the history of ...
in 2015. The coconut palms were washed away, leaving the islet as a sand bar. The effect of Cyclone Pam, which did not pass directly over the islands, shows that Tuvaluans are exposed to storm surges causing damage to their houses and crops, and also the risk of water born disease as a consequence of contamination of the water supplies. Between 1971 and 2014, during a period of global warming, Tuvalu islands overall have increased in size, according to
aerial photography Aerial photography (or airborne imagery) is the taking of photographs from an aircraft or other flight, airborne platforms. When taking motion pictures, it is also known as aerial videography. Platforms for aerial photography include fixed-wi ...
and
satellite imagery Satellite images (also Earth observation imagery, spaceborne photography, or simply satellite photo) are images of Earth collected by imaging satellites operated by governments and businesses around the world. Satellite imaging companies sell im ...
documented in a study from the
University of Auckland The University of Auckland (; Māori: ''Waipapa Taumata Rau'') is a public research university based in Auckland, New Zealand. The institution was established in 1883 as a constituent college of the University of New Zealand. Initially loc ...
. Over four decades, there was a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), although the changes were not uniform, with 74% of land increasing in size and 27% of land decreasing in size. The sea level at the
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
tide gauge A tide gauge is a device for measuring the change in sea level relative to a vertical datum. It is also known as a mareograph, marigraph, and sea-level recorder. When applied to freshwater continental water body, water bodies, the instrument may ...
has risen at 3.9 mm per year, which is approximately twice the global average.Supplementary note 2 in This may be because gradual sea-level rise allows for coral polyp activity to raise the atolls with the sea level. However, if the increase in sea level occurs at faster rate as compared to coral growth, or if polyp activity is damaged by
ocean acidification Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's ocean. Between 1950 and 2020, the average pH of the ocean surface fell from approximately 8.15 to 8.05. Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are the primary cause of ...
, then the resilience of the atolls and reef islands is less certain. Prime Minister
Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
has responded to the University of Auckland study with assertions that Tuvalu is not expanding and has gained no additional habitable land. Tuvaluans point to observable changes that have occurred to that show there have been changes to sea levels. Those observable changes include sea water bubbling up through the porous coral rock to form pools on each high tide and flooding of low-lying areas including the airport on a regular basis during spring tides and
king tide A king tide is an especially high spring tide, especially the perigean spring tides which occur three or four times a year. King tide is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. The expression originated in Australia, Ne ...
s. Several causes of coastal flooding in Tuvalu have been identified, including: " sand mining, paving of surface areas, and manipulation of coastlines in addition to high seas caused by meteorological and climatological forces."


Ecosystems

Ocean acidification was projected to continue in 2011 (with very high confidence). The investigation of groundwater dynamics of Fongafale Islet,
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
, show that tidal forcing results in salt water contamination of the surficial aquifer during spring tides. The degree of aquifer salinization depends on the specific
topographic Topography is the study of the forms and features of land surfaces. The topography of an area may refer to the landforms and features themselves, or a description or depiction in maps. Topography is a field of geoscience and planetary scienc ...
characteristics and the
hydrologic Hydrology () is the scientific study of the movement, distribution, and management of water on Earth and other planets, including the water cycle, water resources, and drainage basin sustainability. A practitioner of hydrology is called a hydro ...
controls in the sub-surface of the atoll. About half of Fongafale islet is reclaimed swamp that contains porous, highly permeable coral blocks that allow the tidal forcing of salt water. Increases in the sea level will exacerbate the aquifer salinization as the result of increases in tidal forcing. The reefs at Funafuti have suffered damage, with 80 per cent of the coral having been bleached as a consequence of the increase of the ocean temperatures and acidification from increased levels of carbon dioxide. The coral bleaching, which includes
staghorn coral The staghorn coral (''Acropora cervicornis'') is a branching, stony coral, within the Order Scleractinia. It is characterized by thick, upright branches which can grow in excess of 2 meters (6.5 ft) in height and resemble the antlers of a ...
s, is attributed to the increase in water temperature that occurred during the
El Niño EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...
s that occurred from 1998 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2001. Researchers from Japan have investigated rebuilding the
coral reef A coral reef is an underwater ecosystem characterized by reef-building corals. Reefs are formed of colonies of coral polyps held together by calcium carbonate. Most coral reefs are built from stony corals, whose polyps cluster in group ...
s through introduction of
foraminifera Foraminifera ( ; Latin for "hole bearers"; informally called "forams") are unicellular organism, single-celled organisms, members of a phylum or class (biology), class of Rhizarian protists characterized by streaming granular Ectoplasm (cell bio ...
. The atolls have shown resilience to gradual sea-level rise, with atolls and reef islands being able to grow under current climate conditions by generating sufficient sand and coral debris that accumulates and gets dumped on the islands during cyclones. Gradual sea-level rise also allows for coral polyp activity to increase the reefs. However, if the increase in sea level occurs at faster rate as compared to coral growth, or if polyp activity is damaged by
ocean acidification Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's ocean. Between 1950 and 2020, the average pH of the ocean surface fell from approximately 8.15 to 8.05. Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are the primary cause of ...
, then the resilience of the atolls and reef islands is less certain.


Impacts on people


Impacts on housing and long term habitability

Existing scientific narratives suggest that Tuvalu may become uninhabitable as a consequence of rising sea levels by the end of this century, though one 2018 study from the University of Auckland found that the islands had gained more area in recent decades than they had lost overall, suggesting that they would persist as sites for habitation over the next century, allowing for alternate opportunities for
adaptation In biology, adaptation has three related meanings. Firstly, it is the dynamic evolutionary process of natural selection that fits organisms to their environment, enhancing their evolutionary fitness. Secondly, it is a state reached by the p ...
rather than a forced exodus. Despite these findings, the Prime Minister of Tuvalu maintained that "Tuvalu snot expanding" and that "the expansion of Tuvaluan shoreline did not equate to habitable land." While some commentators have called for the relocation of Tuvalu's population to Australia, New Zealand or
Kioa Kioa is an island in Fiji, an outlier to Vanua Levu, one of Fiji's two main islands. Situated opposite Buca Bay, Kioa was purchased by settlers from Vaitupu atoll in Tuvalu, who came between 1947 and 1962. Despite its relatively large size, Vait ...
in Fiji, in 2006
Maatia Toafa Maatia Toafa (1 May 1954–13 November 2024) was a Tuvaluan politician, representing Nanumea, who served two non-consecutive terms as Prime Minister of Tuvalu. He first served as prime minister, and foreign minister, from 2004 to 2006, from th ...
(Prime Minister from 2004 to 2006) said his government did not regard rising sea levels as such a threat that the entire population would need to be evacuated. In 2013, Prime Minister
Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
said that relocating Tuvaluans to avoid the impact of sea level rise "should never be an option because it is self defeating in itself. For Tuvalu I think we really need to mobilise public opinion in the Pacific as well as in the est ofworld to really talk to their lawmakers to please have some sort of moral obligation and things like that to do the right thing." As of 2023, the "Plan A" of the government of prime minister
Kausea Natano Kausea Natano (born 5 July 1957) is a politician who served as the Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 19 September 2019 to 26 February 2024. He represented Funafuti as a Member of Parliament. He was first elected in the 2002 Tuvaluan general electio ...
was to strengthen key areas to withstand rising sea levels and changing climate, although the government acknowledged that "Plan B" involved evacuating the islands while maintaining Tuvaluan community and culture as much as possible through digital means, including a virtual reality duplicate of the country. In November 2023 it was announced that Australia will offer 280 Tuvalu citizens displaced by climate change permanent residency in Australia per year, as part of a broad bilateral deal. Following his appointment as the prime minister in February 2024
Feleti Teo Feleti Penitala Teo (born 9 October 1962) is a Tuvaluan people, Tuvaluan politician and lawyer who is serving as the 14th Prime Minister of Tuvalu, prime minister of Tuvalu since 2024. He was elected to the Parliament of Tuvalu in the 2024 Tuval ...
said his government's top priority was climate change.


Health impacts

Climate change in Tuvalu is expected to cause the prevalence of various diseases to increase, including diarrhoeal and respiratory disease, as well as lead to compromised food security. Droughts in Tuvalu, such as the
2011 Tuvalu drought The 2011 Tuvalu drought was a period of severe drought afflicting Tuvalu, a Oceania, South Pacific island country of approximately 10,500 people, in the latter half of 2011. A state of emergency was declared on September 28, 2011; with rationing o ...
result in water shortages and sanitation problems. The health consequences are increased acute respiratory infections (ARIs), viral illnesses, skin diseases, septic sores, and infection of cholera, diarrhoea and typhoid.


Economic impacts


Agriculture and fisheries

Climate change is expected to worsen the following challenges: * '' Pulaka'' (''Cyrtosperma merkusii'') pit salinisation due to saltwater intrusion; and * Decreasing fisheries population.The El Niño phenomenon has an effect on tuna catch rates, which led to a fall in the number of foreign fishing licenses granted by the government of Tuvalu following the El Niño period from 1998 to 2001, and up to 2005.


Infrastructure

Climate change is expected to lead to inadequate potable water due to less rainfall and prolonged droughts.


Mitigation and adaptation


Mitigation


Policies and legislation to achieve adaptation


The National Advisory Council on Climate Change

In a speech on 16 September 2005 to the 60th Session of the UN General Assembly, Prime Minister
Maatia Toafa Maatia Toafa (1 May 1954–13 November 2024) was a Tuvaluan politician, representing Nanumea, who served two non-consecutive terms as Prime Minister of Tuvalu. He first served as prime minister, and foreign minister, from 2004 to 2006, from th ...
emphasized the impact of climate change as a "broader security issue which relates to environmental security. Living in a very fragile island environment, our long-term security and sustainable development is closely linked to issues of climate change, preserving biodiversity, managing our limited forests and water resources." The threat of climate change to the islands is not a dominant motivation for migration as Tuvaluans appear to prefer to continue living in Tuvalu for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity. In 2013
Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
, the prime minister of Tuvalu, said that relocating Tuvaluans to avoid the impact of sea level rise "should never be an option because it is self defeating in itself. For Tuvalu I think we really need to mobilise public opinion in the Pacific as well as in the est ofworld to really talk to their lawmakers to please have some sort of moral obligation and things like that to do the right thing." "The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific" 2013 report of the
Asian Development Bank The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a regional development bank to promote social and economic development in Asia. The bank is headquartered in Metro Manila, Philippines and maintains 31 field offices around the world. The bank was establishe ...
estimates the range of potential
economic impacts of climate change An economic analysis of climate change uses economic tools and models to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damages caused by climate change. It can also give guidance for the best policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate chan ...
for agriculture, fisheries, tourism, coral reefs, and human health in the Pacific region; with agriculture production, such as taro, particularly vulnerable to the effect of climate change. The Pacific countries are projected incur economic losses in the range of 4.6% to 12.7% of the region's annual GDP equivalent by 2100, with the degree of severity changing with different emission scenarios. On 16 January 2014 Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga established the National Advisory Council on Climate Change, which functions are "to identify actions or strategies: to achieve energy efficiencies; to increase the use of renewable energy; to encourage the private sector and NGOs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; to ensure a whole of government response to adaptation and climate change related disaster risk reduction; and to encourage the private sector and NGOs to develop locally appropriate technologies for adaptation and climate change mitigation (reductions in reenhouse gas." At the 20th Conference of Parties to the
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the UN process for negotiating an agreement to limit dangerous climate change. It is an international treaty among countries to combat "dangerous Global warming, human interf ...
in December 2014 at Lima, Peru, Sopoaga said "Climate change is the single greatest challenge facing my country. It is threatening the livelihood, security and wellbeing of all Tuvaluans." ''Te Kakeega III - National Strategy for Sustainable Development-2016-2020'' (TK III) sets out the development agenda of the Government of Tuvalu. TK III includes new strategic areas, in addition to the eight identified in TK II. The additional strategic areas are climate change; environment; migration and urbanization; and oceans and seas.


The National Adaptation Programme of Action and the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project

Tuvalu's
National Adaptation Programme of Action A National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is a type of plan submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by least developed countries, to describe the country's perception of its most "urgent and immediat ...
(NAPA) describes a response to the climate change problem as using the combined efforts of several local bodies on each island that will work with the local community leaders (the Falekaupule). The main office, named the Department of Environment, is responsible for coordinating the non-governmental organizations, religious bodies, and stakeholders. Each of the named groups are responsible for implementing Tuvalu's NAPA, the main plan to adapt to the adverse effects of human use and climate change. In 2015 the
United Nations Development Program The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is a United Nations agency tasked with helping countries Poverty reduction, eliminate poverty and achieve Sustainable development, sustainable economic growth and Human development (economics), hu ...
(UNDP) assisted the government of Tuvalu to acquire ''MV Talamoana'', a vessel that will be used to implement Tuvalu's
National Adaptation Programme of Action A National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is a type of plan submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by least developed countries, to describe the country's perception of its most "urgent and immediat ...
to transport government officials and project personnel to the outer islands. In August 2017 the Government of Tuvalu and the UNDP launched the
Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project The Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project (TCAP) was launched in 2017 to meet the challenges to Tuvalu resulting from Climate change in Tuvalu, climate change and sea-level rise affecting the islands of Tuvalu. Tuvalu was the first country in the Pac ...
(TCAP) that is financed with US$36 million from the
Green Climate Fund The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a Funding, fund for climate finance that was established within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Considered the world's largest fund of its kind, GCF's objective ...
and T$2.9 million from the Government of Tuvalu. The TCAP focuses on construction works to defend infrastructure including roads, schools, hospitals and government buildings. over a period of seven years. The goal of the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project is to build coastal resilience in three of Tuvalu's nine inhabited islands and to manage coastal inundation risks by reducing the impact of increasingly intensive wave action. In 2020, Environmental and Social Impact Assessments were published for plans to construct hard and soft coastal protection infrastructure to reduce inundation and coastal erosion on the islands of
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
,
Nanumaga Nanumanga or Nanumaga is a reef island and a district of the Oceanian island nation of Tuvalu. It has a surface area of about 3 km2 with a population of 391 (2022 census). History On 9 May 1824 a French government expedition under Captain ...
and
Nanumea Nanumea is the northwesternmost atoll in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu, a group of nine coral atolls and islands spread over about of the Pacific Ocean just south of the equator and west of the International Date Line. Nanumea is with a po ...
. The implementation of the TCAP on Funafuti is proposed to be a land reclamation project, which will start from the northern boundary of the Queen Elizabeth Park (QEP) reclamation area and extend to the northern Tausoa Beach Groyne and the development of the Catalina Ramp Harbour. An ecological assessment of the TCAP project considers the removal of sand by dredging in Funafuti lagoon, which was the source of the sand in the Borrow Pits Remediation (BPR) project. The implementation of the TCAP on
Nanumaga Nanumanga or Nanumaga is a reef island and a district of the Oceanian island nation of Tuvalu. It has a surface area of about 3 km2 with a population of 391 (2022 census). History On 9 May 1824 a French government expedition under Captain ...
is a plan to build berm top barriers on the crest of the main natural storm
berm A berm is a level space, shelf, or raised barrier (usually made of Soil compaction, compacted soil) separating areas in a vertical way, especially partway up a long slope. It can serve as a terrace road, track, path, a fortification line, a b ...
that runs parallel to the foreshore area of the main village. The implementation of the TCAP on
Nanumea Nanumea is the northwesternmost atoll in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu, a group of nine coral atolls and islands spread over about of the Pacific Ocean just south of the equator and west of the International Date Line. Nanumea is with a po ...
, is a proposal to protect approximately of high value shoreline with berm top barriers along the crest of the main natural storm berm. For approximately of coastline in front of the church, following consultation with the Falekaupule, it is proposed to reinstate the former shore by constructing a new seawall made from precast concrete interlocking Seabee units where there are the remnants of existing but crumbling hard coastal protection measures. In December 2022, work on the Funafuti reclamation project commenced. The project is to dredge sand from the lagoon to construct a platform on Fongafale,
Funafuti Funafuti is an atoll, comprising numerous islets, that serves as the capital of Tuvalu. As of the 2017 census, it has a population of 6,320 people. More people live in Funafuti than the rest of Tuvalu combined, with it containing approximately 6 ...
that is meters long and meters wide, giving a total area of approximately 7.8 ha. (19.27 acres), which is designed to remain above sea level rise and the reach of storm waves beyond the year 2100.


Tuvalu Survival Fund (TSF)

The Tuvaluan government established the Tuvalu Survival Fund (TSF) in 2016 to finance climate change programs and as a fund available to respond promptly to natural disasters, such as
tropical cyclone A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its locat ...
s. Contributions are made to the TSF from the national budget.


Digital nation

In November of 2022, Simon Kofe, Minister for Justice, Communication & Foreign Affairs, proclaimed that in response to rising sea levels and the perceived failures by the outside world to combat global warming, the country would be uploading itself to the metaverse in an effort to preserve itself and allow it to function as a country even in the event of it being underwater. On 1 October 2023 the constitution was changed to assert Tuvalu's existence would be perpetual, even if its landmass disappeared due to climate change. The government aims to retain control of its current territorial waters and extended economic zone in this event. It is hoped that if other countries follow suit, international law may change to accommodate these ideas.


Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing

On 26 September 2023, the World Bank (WB) approved US$11.5 million (AUD$18 million) in new grant financing to Tuvalu as part of the WB’s First Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing program. This WB support includes a development policy grant of US$7.5 million (AU$11.8 million) This grant is directed to assisting Tuvalu's National Disaster Management Office in coordinating post-disaster response activities; as well to the work of Tuvalu’s National Building Code Assessment Unit, of the Public Works Department, to develop more disaster-resilient infrastructure in Tuvalu. The WB program includes an additional Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) of US$4 million (AU$6.3 million). The Cat DDO funds are made available to Tuvalu in the event of a natural disaster. The purpose of the WB grant is to support improved monitoring and reporting for the assessment of Tuvalu’s climate and disaster risks, and to help the government fast-track the flow of critical supplies to the
islands of Tuvalu Tuvalu consists of nine separate islands: six atolls and three reef islands. An atoll typically consists of several motus: Tuvalu has a total of 124 islands and islets. Each island is surrounded by a coral reef. The soils of Tuvalu's islands are ...
following emergencies and natural disasters.


International cooperation


Tuvalu's role at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference 2009

In December 2009 the islands stalled talks at
United Nations Climate Change Conference The United Nations Climate Change Conferences are yearly conferences held in the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They serve as the formal meeting of the UNFCCC parties – the conference of the par ...
in
Copenhagen Copenhagen ( ) is the capital and most populous city of Denmark, with a population of 1.4 million in the Urban area of Copenhagen, urban area. The city is situated on the islands of Zealand and Amager, separated from Malmö, Sweden, by the ...
, fearing some other developing countries were not committing fully to binding deals on a reduction in carbon emission, their chief negotiator stated "Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, and our future rests on the outcome of this meeting." When the conference failed to reach a binding, meaningful agreement, Tuvalu's representative Ian Fry said, "It looks like we are being offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future... Our future is not for sale. I regret to inform you that Tuvalu cannot accept this document." Fry's speech to the conference was a highly impassioned plea for countries around the world to address the issues of man-made global warming resulting in climate change. The five-minute speech addressed the dangers of rising sea levels to Tuvalu and the world. In his speech Fry claimed man-made global warming to be currently "the greatest threat to humanity", and ended with an emotional "the fate of my country rests in your hands".


2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21)

Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
said at the
2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Paris, France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the United Nations Climate Change conference, Conference of the Parties (COP) ...
(COP21) that the goal for COP21 should be a global temperature goal of below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, which is the position of the
Alliance of Small Island States Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is an intergovernmental organization of low-lying coastal and small island countries. AOSIS was established in 1990, ahead of the Second World Climate Conference. The main purpose of the alliance is to c ...
. The countries participating in the
Paris Agreement The Paris Agreement (also called the Paris Accords or Paris Climate Accords) is an international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016. The treaty covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The Paris Agreement was ...
agreed to reduce their carbon output "as soon as possible" and to do their best to keep global warming "to well below 2 °C". Enele Sopoaga described the important outcomes of COP21 as including the stand-alone provision for assistance to small island states and some of the least developed countries for loss and damage resulting from climate change and the ambition of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. Prime Minister
Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
said at the
2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Paris, France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the United Nations Climate Change conference, Conference of the Parties (COP) ...
(COP21) that the goal for COP21 should be a global temperature goal of below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, which is the position of the
Alliance of Small Island States Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is an intergovernmental organization of low-lying coastal and small island countries. AOSIS was established in 1990, ahead of the Second World Climate Conference. The main purpose of the alliance is to c ...
. Ms. Pepetua Latasi, the director of the Department of Environment, was the Chief Negotiator for Tuvalu. Prime Minister Sopoaga said in his speech to the meeting of heads of state and government: His speech concluded with the plea: The countries participating in the
Paris Agreement The Paris Agreement (also called the Paris Accords or Paris Climate Accords) is an international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016. The treaty covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The Paris Agreement was ...
agreed to reduce their carbon output "as soon as possible" and to do their best to keep global warming "to well below 2 degrees C". Enele Sopoaga described the important outcomes of the Paris Agreement as including the stand-alone provision for assistance to small island states and some of the least developed countries for loss and damage resulting from climate change and the ambition of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.


Society and culture


Activism


Climate change leadership and the Majuro Declaration 2013

In November 2011, Tuvalu was one of the eight founding members of
Polynesian Leaders Group The Polynesian Leaders Group (PLG) is an international governmental cooperation group bringing together four independent countries and eight self-governing territories in Polynesia. The idea of a Polynesian regional grouping had been discussed ...
, a regional grouping intended to cooperate on a variety of issues including culture and language, education, responses to climate change, and trade and investment. Tuvalu participates in the
Alliance of Small Island States Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is an intergovernmental organization of low-lying coastal and small island countries. AOSIS was established in 1990, ahead of the Second World Climate Conference. The main purpose of the alliance is to c ...
(AOSIS), which is a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal countries that have concerns about their vulnerability to the adverse effects of global climate change. The
Sopoaga Ministry The Sopoaga Ministry was the 14th Ministry (collective executive), ministry of the Government of Tuvalu, led by Prime Minister of Tuvalu, Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga. It succeeds the Telavi Ministry upon its swearing in by Governor-General of Tu ...
led by
Enele Sopoaga Enele Sosene Sopoaga Privy Council of the United Kingdom, PC (born 10 February 1956) is a Tuvaluan diplomat and politician who was Prime Minister of Tuvalu from 2013 to 2019. Sopoaga was elected to Parliament of Tuvalu, Parliament in the 2010 T ...
made a commitment under the Majuro Declaration, which was signed on 5 September 2013, to implement power generation of
100% renewable energy 100% renewable energy is the goal of the use renewable resources for all energy. 100% renewable energy for electricity, heating, cooling and transport is motivated by climate change, pollution and other environmental issues, as well as ec ...
(between 2013 and 2020). This commitment is proposed to be implemented using Solar PV (95% of demand) and biodiesel (5% of demand). The feasibility of wind power generation will be considered. Marshall Islands President Christopher Loeak presented the Majuro Declaration to the UN
Secretary-General Secretary is a title often used in organizations to indicate a person having a certain amount of authority, Power (social and political), power, or importance in the organization. Secretaries announce important events and communicate to the org ...
Ban Ki-moon Ban Ki-moon (born 13 June 1944) is a South Korean politician and diplomat who served as the eighth secretary-general of the United Nations between 2007 and 2016. Prior to his appointment as secretary-general, Ban was the South Korean minister ...
during General Assembly Leaders' week from 23 September 2013. The Majuro Declaration is offered as a "Pacific gift" to the UN Secretary-General in order to catalyze more ambitious climate action by world leaders beyond that achieved at the December
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as the Copenhagen Summit, was held at the Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, between 7 and 18 December. The conference included the 15th session of the Conference of the Partie ...
( COP15). On 29 September 2013 the Deputy Prime Minister Vete Sakaio concluded his speech to the General Debate of the 68th Session of the United Nations General Assembly with an appeal to the world, "please save Tuvalu against climate change. Save Tuvalu in order to save yourself, the world".


Women and children

Women from Tuvalu, such as Moira Simmons-Avafoa, along with others from Pacific countries have been encouraged to use their voices to contribute to discussion about climate change – in particular how it disproportionately affects women and children.


Climate change, sea level rise and the perpetual statehood of Tuvalu

On 27 October 2021, Simon Kofe, as Tuvalu's Foreign Minister, launched Tuvalu's "Future Now Project" (''Te Ataeao Nei Project'' in Tuvaluan). The project's first initiative was a values- or culture-based approach to diplomacy based on Tuvaluan values of ''olaga fakafenua'' (communal living systems), ''kaitasi'' (shared responsibility), and ''fale-pili'' (being a good neighbour), in the hope other nations will be motivated to understand their shared responsibility to mitigate climate change and sea level rise. A values- or culture-based approach to diplomacy was reflected in Tuvalu's 2020 Foreign Policy (''Te Sikulagi''). Simon Kofe, as chair of the Constitutional Review Parliamentary Select Committee, was involved in drafting the amendments to the
Constitution A constitution is the aggregate of fundamental principles or established precedents that constitute the legal basis of a polity, organization or other type of entity, and commonly determines how that entity is to be governed. When these pri ...
. On 5 September 2023, Tuvalu's parliament passed the Constitution of Tuvalu Act 2023, with the changes to the Constitution came into effect on 1 October 2023. The 2023 amendments to the Constitution adopt an innovative approach to determining the boundaries of the State of Tuvalu. :Section 2(1) states the perpetual statehood of Tuvalu "notwithstanding the impacts of climate change or other causes resulting in loss to the physical territory of Tuvalu". :Section 2(2) declares Tuvalu's area, including maritime zones (as defined in a schedule that is a Declaration of Tuvalu Geographical Coordinates) are permanent, regardless of any effects resulting from climate change. The government of Tuvalu recognises that there is no international conventions that it can rely on that can recognise Tuvalu's new status as the effects of climate change are not addressed in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Other Pacific Ocean countries support Tuvalu's position on the impact on territorial boundaries caused by climate change. The leaders of the
Pacific Islands Forum The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) is an inter-governmental organisation that aims to enhance cooperation among countries and territories of Oceania, including formation of a trade bloc and regional peacekeeping operations. It was founded in 197 ...
countries published a declaration on 6 August 2021 that recalled the Pacific Islands Forum Members have a long history of support for the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), also called the Law of the Sea Convention or the Law of the Sea Treaty, is an international treaty that establishes a legal framework for all marine and maritime activities. , 169 sov ...
(the "Convention"), and which declaration ended with a proclamation: "that our maritime zones, as established and notified to the Secretary-General of the United Nations in accordance with the Convention, and the rights and entitlements that flow from them, shall continue to apply, without reduction, notwithstanding any physical changes connected to climate change-related sea-level rise."


See also

* Renewable energy in Tuvalu * Climate change in the Pacific Islands


References


External links


''Te Kakeega III - National Strategy for Sustainable Development-2016-2020''Talofa! Tuvalu Met ServiceSouth Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project (SPSLCMP)Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment ProgramTalanoa Dialogue Portal (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC))
* ttp://alofatuvalu.tv/ Small Is BeautifulA lobby group set up to help the island nation
''King Tide , The Sinking of Tuvalu''
(2007) by Juriaan Booij.
''Tuvalu''
(Director: Aaron Smith, "Hungry Beast" program, ABC June 2011) 6:40 minutes - YouTube video. * ''ThuleTuvalu'' (2014) by Matthias von Gunten, HesseGreutert Film/OdysseyFilm.
(28 Sep 2013) Address by His Excellency Vete Palakua Sakaio, Deputy Prime Minister of Tuvalu at the general debate of the 68th Session of the General Assembly of the United Nations
*
{{DEFAULTSORT:Climate Change In Tuvalu
Tuvalu Tuvalu ( ) is an island country in the Polynesian subregion of Oceania in the Pacific Ocean, about midway between Hawaii and Australia. It lies east-northeast of the Santa Cruz Islands (which belong to the Solomon Islands), northeast of Van ...
Environment of Tuvalu