by-election A by-election, also known as a special election in the United States and the Philippines, or a bypoll in India, is an election used to fill an office that has become vacant between general elections. A vacancy may arise as a result of an incumben ...

was held in the federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in

Ontario Ontario is the southernmost Provinces and territories of Canada, province of Canada. Located in Central Canada, Ontario is the Population of Canada by province and territory, country's most populous province. As of the 2021 Canadian census, it ...

, Canada on June 24, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent

Liberal Liberal or liberalism may refer to: Politics * Generally, a supporter of the political philosophy liberalism. Liberals may be politically left or right but tend to be centrist. * An adherent of a Liberal Party (See also Liberal parties by country ...

Carolyn Bennett Carolyn Ann Bennett (born December 20, 1950) is a Canadian ambassador and retired politician. A member of the Liberal Party, she represented Toronto—St. Paul's in the House of Commons from 1997 to 2024, and was a cabinet minister in the go ...

. The race was considered by some as a referendum on the premiership of Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau Justin Pierre James Trudeau (born December 25, 1971) is a Canadian politician who served as the 23rd prime minister of Canada from 2015 to 2025. He led the Liberal Party from 2013 until his resignation in 2025 and was the member of Parliament ...

. The election was won by Conservative Party candidate Don Stewart, making him the first Conservative MP since 1993 to represent the riding. The byelection had notably higher turnout than other contests to the 44th Canadian Parliament and garnered national attention; a poll from

Abacus Data Abacus Data is a Canadian polling and market research firm based in Ottawa, Ontario. It was founded in August 2010,

in mid-July suggested that 63% of Canadians nationwide were aware of the outcome of this byelection, along with 70% of Liberal supporters. This resulted in a decline of confidence in Justin Trudeau among some Liberal caucus members and party supporters.

Background

The riding of Toronto—St. Paul's was vacated on January 16, 2024, following the resignation of

. Bennett, most recently the

Minister of Mental Health and Addictions The minister of mental health and addictions () was a minister of the Crown and a member of the Canadian Cabinet tasked with supporting the Government of Canada's mental health and addictions related priorities. The office was associated with the ...

and Associate Minister of Health in the government of

, had held the seat since

1997 Events January * January 1 – The Emergency Alert System is introduced in the United States. * January 11 – Turkey threatens Cyprus on account of a deal to buy Russian S-300 missiles, prompting the Cypriot Missile Crisis. * January 1 ...

. The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Trudeau.

Constituency

Prior to the by-election, Toronto—St. Paul's was considered a safe Liberal seat in

Midtown, Toronto Midtown is one of four central business districts outside the city's downtown core of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Located in the north of Old Toronto, its borders are roughly defined by St. Clair Avenue to the south and Eglinton Avenue or Lawr ...

. It had been held by the Liberals since the 1993 federal election. The

Government of Canada The Government of Canada (), formally His Majesty's Government (), is the body responsible for the federation, federal administration of Canada. The term ''Government of Canada'' refers specifically to the executive, which includes Minister of t ...

announced measures to protect the by-election from foreign interference.

Candidates

The Conservative Party nominated Don Stewart on January 24. He works for the

Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO; ''Organisme canadien de réglementation des investissements'' or ''OCRI'' in French) is a non-profit, national self-regulatory organization (SRO). Established through the merger of the Invest ...

. Stewart campaigned on the main tenets of the Conservative Party platform under

Pierre Poilievre Pierre Marcel Poilievre (born June 3, 1979) is a Canadian politician who has been the Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Conservative Party since 2022. He was the Member of Parliament (Canad ...

, including crime and support for Israel. Running for the

nomination was Leslie Church, former chief of staff to

Chrystia Freeland Christina Alexandra Freeland (born August 2, 1968) is a Canadian politician and journalist who has served as the Member of Parliament (Canada), member of Parliament (MP) for University—Rosedale (federal electoral district), University—Rose ...

. She later received formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto—St. Paul's in April 2024. She ran against Emma Richardson, a senior advisor with

Global Affairs Canada Global Affairs Canada (GAC; ; AMC)''Global Affairs Canada'' is the applied title under the Federal Identity Program; the legal title is Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (). is the department of the Government of Canada that ...

's United Nations division. The Liberal nomination was held on May 1 with Church winning the nomination. In 2020, Church agreed to an ethics screen for being married to lobbyist "Sheamus Murphy..(who is) registered to lobby the Liberal government in relation to several major sectors with active policy files, including broadcasting, energy and pharmaceutical companies that are working on a COVID-19 vaccine." She would later be elected as the MP for this riding in the

2025 Canadian federal election The 2025 Canadian federal election was held on April 28, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons of Canada, House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. Governor General Mary Simon issued the writs of election on March 23, 2025, afte ...

, defeating Stewart in a rematch. Other prospective candidates for the Liberal nomination who declined to run, included former Toronto city councillor

Josh Colle Josh Colle (; born 1972 or 1973) is a Canadian politician. He was the councillor for Ward 15 on Toronto City Council for the years 2010-2018.Eric Hoskins Eric William Hoskins (born November 29, 1960) is a Canadian physician and former politician who served as an Ontario cabinet minister from 2010 to 2018. A member of the Ontario Liberal Party, he represented Toronto—St. Paul's in the Legisla ...

, who represented the area provincially from 2009 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of

Dalton McGuinty Dalton James Patrick McGuinty Jr. (born July 19, 1955) is a Canadian former politician who served as the 24th premier of Ontario from 2003 to 2013. He was the first Liberal leader to win two majority governments since Mitchell Hepburn nea ...

and

Kathleen Wynne Kathleen O'Day Wynne ( ; born May 21, 1953) is a former Canadian politician who served as the 25th premier of Ontario and leader of the Ontario Liberal Party from 2013 to 2018. She was Member of Provincial Parliament (Ontario), member of provinci ...

, including as Minister of Health and Long-Term Care from 2014 to 2018; and Toronto city councillor

Josh Matlow Josh Matlow (born November 27, 1975) is a Canadian politician who has represented Ward 12 Toronto—St. Paul's on Toronto City Council since 2010. Matlow ran as the Ontario Liberal Party candidate in the 2002 Dufferin—Peel—Wellington—Grey ...

, who has represented the area municipally since 2010; Matlow ultimately decided not to run. With his riding set to merge with Scarborough Centre at the next election,

Don Valley East Don Valley East () is a former federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada that covers the northeast section of the North York part of Toronto. The federal riding was created in 1976 from parts of Willowdale, York East, York North, and Y ...

Michael Coteau Michael Joseph Coteau is a Canadian politician who serves as the Member of Parliament for Scarborough—Woburn in the House of Commons of Canada. From 2011 to 2021, he was a Liberal member of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario representing ...

was seen as a potential candidate, in order to avoid a nomination battle with fellow Liberal MP

Salma Zahid Salma Zahid (born May 26, 1970) is a Canadian politician, who was elected as a Member of Parliament in the House of Commons of Canada to represent the federal riding of Scarborough Centre during the 2015 Canadian federal election. She succeede ...

; Coteau ultimately declined to run. The Rhinoceros Party announced that Sean Carson would be the candidate on January 13. The NDP announced on April 17 that Amrit Parhar would be the candidate. She works as the Director of Programs at the Institute for Change Leaders, an organization that was founded by Toronto mayor,

Olivia Chow Olivia Chow (born March 24, 1957) is a Canadian politician who has been the 66th and current mayor of Toronto since July 12, 2023. Previously, Chow served as the New Democratic Party (NDP) member of Parliament (MP) for Trinity—Spadina fro ...

. It was previously reported two days earlier by ''

The Hill Times ''The Hill Times'' is a Canadian twice-weekly newspaper and daily news website, published in Ottawa, Ontario, which covers the Parliament of Canada, the federal government, and other federal political news. Founded in 1989 by Ross Dickson and Jim ...

'' that MPP for Toronto—St. Paul's,

Jill Andrew Jill Andrew is a Canadian politician who represented Toronto—St. Paul's in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario from 2018 until 2025 as a member of the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP). Education Andrew attended Humber College, where sh ...

was considering seeking the nomination. On May 17, the Centrist Party announced Ali Mohiuddin as their candidate. On May 24, the

Green Party A green party is a formally organized political party based on the principles of green politics, such as environmentalism and social justice. Green party platforms typically embrace Social democracy, social democratic economic policies and fo ...

announced that Christian Cullis, a constituent coordinator for Ward 11 city councillor

Dianne Saxe Dianne Saxe, née Shulman (born November 27, 1952), is a Canadian lawyer and politician who was elected to represent Ward 11 University—Rosedale on Toronto City Council following the 2022 municipal election. Before entering politics, Saxe pr ...

, would be their candidate. Emma Richardson, who previously lost the Liberal nomination, also sought the Green Party nomination. On May 28, the People's Party announced that Dennis Wilson would be their candidate. The

Longest Ballot Committee The Longest Ballot Committee is a political movement in Canada, at one time affiliated with the Rhinoceros Party, known for flooding ballots with a large number of independent candidates in protest of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system ...

, a political movement focused on electoral reform in opposition to first-past-the-post-voting, and supporting

proportional representation Proportional representation (PR) refers to any electoral system under which subgroups of an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. The concept applies mainly to political divisions (Political party, political parties) amon ...

, targeted this by-election. This yielded a record 84 candidates, breaking the previous record of 48 set in the Winnipeg South Centre by-election of June 19, 2023. The resulting ballot papers were long, requiring temporary changes to the Elections Act due to their unprecedented size. One candidate, Félix-Antoine Hamel, did not receive any votes, and is believed to be the first candidate to receive zero votes in a federal election in Canadian history. He could not vote for himself, as he did not live in the riding.

Opinion polls

No public opinion polls were released before election day. The day after the election,

Mainstreet Research Mainstreet Research is a Canadian market research and polling firm with headquarters in Toronto, and offices in Montreal and Ottawa. The company was founded in 2010 by Quito Maggi, who currently serves as its president. Mainstreet Research cond ...

released a poll they conducted during the writ period. They did not release the poll during the writ period due to a lack of confidence in the sample.

Results

2021 result

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Toronto-St. Paul's federal by-election, 2024 2024 elections in Canada June 2024 in Canada 2024 in Toronto 2024 in Ontario 44th Canadian Parliament 2024 Toronto—St. Paul's Politics of Toronto