The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful

El Niño–Southern Oscillation El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cyc ...

event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the globe. The onset was declared on 4 July 2023 by the

World Meteorological Organization The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a List of specialized agencies of the United Nations, specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology an ...

(WMO) It was estimated that the most significant meteorological effects would occur between November 2023 and April 2024 and their characteristics would be determined depending on each territory on the planet, within which

droughts A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...

, heavy rains,

wildfires A wildfire, forest fire, or a bushfire is an unplanned and uncontrolled fire in an area of Combustibility and flammability, combustible vegetation. Depending on the type of vegetation present, a wildfire may be more specifically identified as a ...

heat waves "Heat Waves" is a song by British indie rock band Glass Animals released as a single from their third studio album ''Dreamland (Glass Animals album), Dreamland'' on 29 June 2020. A sleeper hit, it is the band's signature song and biggest hit sing ...

tropical cyclones A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its ...

flooding A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are of significant concern in agriculture, civi ...

and changes in wind patterns occurred. These events have already negatively affected the economic activities of agriculture and fishing, generating shortages and rising prices of food—especially

rice Rice is a cereal grain and in its Domestication, domesticated form is the staple food of over half of the world's population, particularly in Asia and Africa. Rice is the seed of the grass species ''Oryza sativa'' (Asian rice)—or, much l ...

palm oil Palm oil is an edible vegetable oil derived from the mesocarp (reddish pulp) of the fruit of oil palms. The oil is used in food manufacturing, in beauty products, and as biofuel. Palm oil accounted for about 36% of global oils produced from o ...

sugar cane Sugarcane or sugar cane is a species of tall, Perennial plant, perennial grass (in the genus ''Saccharum'', tribe Andropogoneae) that is used for sugar Sugar industry, production. The plants are 2–6 m (6–20 ft) tall with stout, jointed, fib ...

soybeans The soybean, soy bean, or soya bean (''Glycine max'') is a species of legume native to East Asia, widely grown for its edible bean. Soy is a staple crop, the world's most grown legume, and an important animal feed. Soy is a key source of f ...

and

corn Maize (; ''Zea mays''), also known as corn in North American English, is a tall stout Poaceae, grass that produces cereal grain. It was domesticated by indigenous peoples of Mexico, indigenous peoples in southern Mexico about 9,000 years ago ...

—and, therefore, an increase in food insecurity of the most vulnerable populations.

Background

El Niño EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...

is a natural climate event caused by the Southern Oscillation, popularly known as El Niño or also in meteorological circles as

El Niño-Southern Oscillation EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...

or ENSO, through which global warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean results in the development of unusually warm waters between the coast of

South America South America is a continent entirely in the Western Hemisphere and mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, with a considerably smaller portion in the Northern Hemisphere. It can also be described as the southern Subregion#Americas, subregion o ...

and the

International Date Line The International Date Line (IDL) is the line extending between the South and North Poles that is the boundary between one calendar day and the next. It passes through the Pacific Ocean, roughly following the 180.0° line of longitude and de ...

. This phenomenon significantly affects the global average surface temperature of the planet. A large El Niño event can raise it by as much as a few tenths of a degree Celsius.

Meteorological progression

During an El Niño event, the east–west trade winds die, generating warmer air temperatures in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific. Warmer temperatures lead to warming ocean surface temperatures, leading to heavier rainfall and flooding in the eastern Pacific. Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania. The phenomenon has a recurrence of between 2 and 7 years, and can last from 9 to 12 months. The combination of El Niño and above-normal temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) tends to favor increased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific. At the beginning of the year, it was considered that the climatic conditions of the first quarter of 2023 pointed to the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, similar to those that occurred in 1982, 1997, and 2015. In mid-January 2023, weather forecasts regarding the probable occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 and 2024 were published in various media. Given that Earth's average temperature has already increased by 1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, a large enough El Niño event in 2023-2024 could even push the planet, temporarily, into warming greater than 1.5 °C.

Timeline

June 2023

On June 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States confirmed the presence of El Niño. During the month of June 2023 the global surface air temperature was warmer than the corresponding month of any previous year.

July 2023

July 4 was declared the start date of the 2023–2024 El Niño event by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). On July 20, the government of India – the main rice exporter in the world – banned the export of non-

basmati Basmati () is a variety of long, slender-grained aromatic rice which originates from the Indian subcontinent, mainly in the regions of Nepal, Punjab, Haryana, Sindh and many other states and provinces of India and Pakistan.Copernicus Climate Change Service The Copernicus Climate Change Service (abbreviated as C3S) is one of the six thematic services provided by the European Union's Copernicus Programme. The Copernicus Programme is managed by the European Commission and the C3S is implemented by th ...

showed that March 2024 was the warmest March on record around the globe. It was 1.68 °C (3.02 °F) warmer than

pre-industrial Pre-industrial society refers to social attributes and forms of political and cultural organization that were prevalent before the advent of the Industrial Revolution, which occurred from 1750 to 1850. ''Pre-industrial'' refers to a time befor ...

times.

April 2024

Effects on tropical cyclone activity

Compared to previously strong El Niño events like 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2014–16, tropical cyclone activity in the

North Atlantic The Atlantic Ocean is the second largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, with an area of about . It covers approximately 17% of Earth's surface and about 24% of its water surface area. During the Age of Discovery, it was known for ...

was not suppressed much by the strong El Niño due to record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. The 2023 season went on to become the fourth most active Atlantic Hurricane season on record tied with

1933 Events January * January 11 – Australian aviator Sir Charles Kingsford Smith makes the first commercial flight between Australia and New Zealand. * January 17 – The United States Congress votes in favour of Philippines independen ...

, and set an all-time record high number of storms for an El Niño year. North Pacific tropical cyclone activity was more mixed. The North East Pacific was above average in terms of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and

ACE An ace is a playing card, die or domino with a single pip. In the standard French deck, an ace has a single suit symbol (a heart, diamond, spade, or a club) located in the middle of the card, sometimes large and decorated, especially in the ...

, typical of previously strong El Niño event years, despite an exceptionally late start. The North West Pacific on the other hand observed well below average activity, mostly due to a consistently negative PDO environment, which suppressed the formation of a lot of tropical storms. While the activities in the North Pacific basins were a mixed bag, both basins proved to be extremely destructive in 2023, with

Typhoon Doksuri Typhoon Doksuri, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Egay, was a powerful and highly destructive tropical cyclone which became the costliest typhoon to hit China, the costliest tropical cyclone outside of the Atlantic hurricane, North Atl ...

in the North West Pacific and

Hurricane Otis Hurricane Otis was a compact but very powerful tropical cyclone which made a devastating landfall in October 2023 near Acapulco as a List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes, Category 5 hurricane. Otis was the first Pacific hurricane to make landfa ...

in the North East Pacific both causing more than $10 billion in damages.

Impact

North America

South America

analyses indicated extreme heat and heatwave effects in central South America from August to December. Temperatures in parts of central Brazil exceeded 41 °C in August although that month marks the middle of the winter in the southern hemisphere. Although droughts are common in the Amazon during El Niño events, studies indicate that

global warming Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes ...

likely played a bigger role than the 2023–2024 El Niño event in the 2023 Amazon's record drought. The

2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods 4 (four) is a number, numeral and digit. It is the natural number following 3 and preceding 5. It is a square number, the smallest semiprime and composite number, and is considered unlucky in many East Asian cultures. Evolution of the Hi ...

in May of that year were caused by historical heavy rains and storms in the southern Brazilian state. Those events were considered by climatologists to had been intensified by the effects of

climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in Global surface temperature, global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in ...

and the 2023–2024 El Niño event. The 2023 Rio Grande do Sul floods had already plagued the state in the month of September prior, a few months into the same El Niño event.

Asia

In April 2024, the

India Meteorological Department India Meteorological Department (IMD) is an Indian agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. IMD is headquar ...

(IMD) warned of heatwave conditions for 10 to 20 days in several parts of the country. The IMD said that the conditions would eventually subside with the onset of the neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the

monsoon A monsoon () is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in Atmosphere of Earth, atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annu ...

in June. On July 20, the Indian government banned the export of non-basmati rice, in order to seek to contain the rise in prices domestically and guarantee its availability in the domestic market due to the geopolitical scenario—especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine. , the effect of El Niño and the extreme weather conditions generated by the climate crisis in other rice-producing countries. This decision would affect more than 42 countries importing rice from India, especially Bangladesh, Nepal, Benin, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Togo and Guinea. In 2022, India exported 10.3 million tons of non-basmati white rice, which represents a quarter of the total sales of the world's leading exporter of this grain. During the month of August 2023, the absence of rain has been significant in general in the country, taking into account that August is the second rainiest of the year, after July, and during the monsoon. August 2023 is estimated to be the driest since meteorological parameters began to be recorded in 1901. In India, the impacts of El Niño develop in such a way that precipitation is suppressed in almost the entire country, except in the territories located in the east and northeast.

Oceania

Oceania has been affected since the beginning of the year by the absence of east–west trade winds and the increase in the temperature of the waters of the eastern Pacific. Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania.

Australia

The months of May, July and August have been months of little rain. The long-term forecast is that from November to December 2023 there will be conditions with higher temperatures and drier weather. A greater number of forest fires are expected for spring than in recent years in the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales, as well as regions of Victoria and South Australia.

Africa

El Niño contributed to

drought A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...

s in southern Africa in 2024.

Zambia Zambia, officially the Republic of Zambia, is a landlocked country at the crossroads of Central Africa, Central, Southern Africa, Southern and East Africa. It is typically referred to being in South-Central Africa or Southern Africa. It is bor ...

Malawi Malawi, officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in Southeastern Africa. It is bordered by Zambia to the west, Tanzania to the north and northeast, and Mozambique to the east, south, and southwest. Malawi spans over and ...

and

Zimbabwe file:Zimbabwe, relief map.jpg, upright=1.22, Zimbabwe, relief map Zimbabwe, officially the Republic of Zimbabwe, is a landlocked country in Southeast Africa, between the Zambezi and Limpopo Rivers, bordered by South Africa to the south, Bots ...

declared a state of disaster. The 2024 drought in Zambia was believed to be the worst to hit the country in at least two decades. In February 2024, Zambian President

Hakainde Hichilema Hakainde Hichilema (born 4 June 1962), often known by his initials HH, is a Zambian businessman, farmer, and politician who is the seventh and current president of Zambia since 24 August 2021. After having contested five previous elections in ...

said that almost half of the country's "planted area" had been "destroyed". El Niño causes severe flooding in East Africa, displacing millions of people.