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Return Period
A return period, also known as a recurrence interval or repeat interval, is an average time or an estimated average time between events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or river discharge flows to occur. It is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data over an extended period, and is used usually for risk analysis. Examples include deciding whether a project should be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk or designing structures to withstand events with a certain return period. The following analysis assumes that the probability of the event occurring does not vary over time and is independent of past events. Estimating a return period Recurrence interval = :''n'' number of years on record; :''m'' is the rank of observed occurrences when arranged in descending order For floods, the event may be measured in terms of m3/s or height; for storm surges, in terms of the height of the surge, and similarly for other events.This is the Weibull's For ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Earthquake
An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from those that are so weak that they cannot be felt, to those violent enough to propel objects and people into the air, damage critical infrastructure, and wreak destruction across entire cities. The seismic activity of an area is the frequency, type, and size of earthquakes experienced over a particular time period. The seismicity at a particular location in the Earth is the average rate of seismic energy release per unit volume. The word ''tremor'' is also used for Episodic tremor and slip, non-earthquake seismic rumbling. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes manifest themselves by shaking and displacing or disrupting the ground. When the epicenter of a large earthquake is located offshore, the seabed may be displaced sufficiently to cause ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bernoulli Trial
In the theory of probability and statistics, a Bernoulli trial (or binomial trial) is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure", in which the probability of success is the same every time the experiment is conducted. It is named after Jacob Bernoulli, a 17th-century Swiss mathematician, who analyzed them in his ''Ars Conjectandi'' (1713). The mathematical formalisation of the Bernoulli trial is known as the Bernoulli process. This article offers an elementary introduction to the concept, whereas the article on the Bernoulli process offers a more advanced treatment. Since a Bernoulli trial has only two possible outcomes, it can be framed as some "yes or no" question. For example: *Is the top card of a shuffled deck an ace? *Was the newborn child a girl? (See human sex ratio.) Therefore, success and failure are merely labels for the two outcomes, and should not be construed literally. The term "success" in this sense consists in the result ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Residence Time (statistics)
In statistics, the residence time is the average amount of time it takes for a random process to reach a certain boundary value, usually a boundary far from the mean. Definition Suppose is a real, scalar stochastic process with initial value , mean and two critical values , where and . Define the first passage time of from within the interval as : \tau(y_0) = \inf\, where "inf" is the infimum. This is the smallest time after the initial time that is equal to one of the critical values forming the boundary of the interval, assuming is within the interval. Because proceeds randomly from its initial value to the boundary, is itself a random variable. The mean of is the residence time, : \bar(y_0) = E tau(y_0)\mid y_0 For a Gaussian process and a boundary far from the mean, the residence time equals the inverse of the frequency of exceedance of the smaller critical value, : \bar = N^(\min(y_,\ y_)), where the frequency of exceedance is is the variance of the Gauss ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frequency Of Exceedance
The frequency of exceedance, sometimes called the annual rate of exceedance, is the frequency with which a random process exceeds some critical value. Typically, the critical value is far from the mean. It is usually defined in terms of the number of peaks of the random process that are outside the boundary. It has applications related to predicting extreme events, such as major earthquakes and floods. Definition The frequency of exceedance is the number of times a stochastic process exceeds some critical value, usually a critical value far from the process' mean, per unit time. Counting exceedance of the critical value can be accomplished either by counting peaks of the process that exceed the critical value or by counting upcrossings of the critical value, where an ''upcrossing'' is an event where the instantaneous value of the process crosses the critical value with positive slope. This article assumes the two methods of counting exceedance are equivalent and that the process ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cumulative Frequency Analysis
Cumulative frequency analysis is the analysis of the frequency of occurrence of values of a phenomenon less than a reference value. The phenomenon may be time- or space-dependent. Cumulative frequency is also called ''frequency of non-exceedance''. Cumulative frequency analysis is performed to obtain insight into how often a certain phenomenon (feature) is below a certain value. This may help in describing or explaining a situation in which the phenomenon is involved, or in planning interventions, for example in flood protection.Benson, M.A. 1960. Characteristics of frequency curves based on a theoretical 1000-year record. In: T.Dalrymple (ed.), Flood frequency analysis. U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply paper 1543-A, pp. 51–71 This statistical technique can be used to see how likely an event like a flood is going to happen again in the future, based on how often it happened in the past. It can be adapted to bring in things like climate change causing wetter winters and drie ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
100-year Flood
A 100-year flood is a flood event that has a 1 in 100 chance (1% probability) of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The 100-year flood is also referred to as the 1% flood, since its annual exceedance probability is 1%.Holmes, R.R., Jr., and Dinicola, K. (2010) ''100-Year flood–it's all about chance 'U.S. Geological Survey General Information Product 106/ref> For coastal or lake flooding, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flood elevation or depth, and may include wave effects. For river systems, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flowrate. Based on the expected 100-year flood flow rate, the flood water level can be mapped as an area of inundation. The resulting floodplain map is referred to as the 100-year floodplain. Estimates of the 100-year flood flowrate and other streamflow statistics for any stream in the United States are available.Ries, K.G., and others (2008) ''StreamStats: A water resources web application 'U.S. Geological Survey, Fac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Mass Function
In probability and statistics, a probability mass function is a function that gives the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value. Sometimes it is also known as the discrete density function. The probability mass function is often the primary means of defining a discrete probability distribution, and such functions exist for either scalar or multivariate random variables whose domain is discrete. A probability mass function differs from a probability density function (PDF) in that the latter is associated with continuous rather than discrete random variables. A PDF must be integrated over an interval to yield a probability. The value of the random variable having the largest probability mass is called the mode. Formal definition Probability mass function is the probability distribution of a discrete random variable, and provides the possible values and their associated probabilities. It is the function p: \R \to ,1/math> defined by for -\inf ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Binomial Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters ''n'' and ''p'' is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of ''n'' independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own Boolean-valued outcome: ''success'' (with probability ''p'') or ''failure'' (with probability q=1-p). A single success/failure experiment is also called a Bernoulli trial or Bernoulli experiment, and a sequence of outcomes is called a Bernoulli process; for a single trial, i.e., ''n'' = 1, the binomial distribution is a Bernoulli distribution. The binomial distribution is the basis for the popular binomial test of statistical significance. The binomial distribution is frequently used to model the number of successes in a sample of size ''n'' drawn with replacement from a population of size ''N''. If the sampling is carried out without replacement, the draws are not independent and so the resulting ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Poisson Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and Statistical independence, independently of the time since the last event. It is named after France, French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson (; ). The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified interval types such as distance, area, or volume. For instance, a call center receives an average of 180 calls per hour, 24 hours a day. The calls are independent; receiving one does not change the probability of when the next one will arrive. The number of calls received during any minute has a Poisson probability distribution with mean 3: the most likely numbers are 2 and 3 but 1 and 4 are also likely and there is a small probability of it being as low as zero and a very smal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Flood
A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrology and are of significant concern in agriculture, civil engineering and public health. Human changes to the environment often increase the intensity and frequency of flooding, for example land use changes such as deforestation and removal of wetlands, changes in waterway course or flood controls such as with levees, and larger environmental issues such as climate change and sea level rise. In particular climate change's increased rainfall and extreme weather events increases the severity of other causes for flooding, resulting in more intense floods and increased flood risk. Flooding may occur as an overflow of water from water bodies, such as a river, lake, or ocean, in which the water overtops or breaks levees, resulting ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Model
A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of Sample (statistics), sample data (and similar data from a larger Statistical population, population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process. A statistical model is usually specified as a mathematical relationship between one or more random variables and other non-random variables. As such, a statistical model is "a formal representation of a theory" (Herman J. Adèr, Herman Adèr quoting Kenneth A. Bollen, Kenneth Bollen). All Statistical hypothesis testing, statistical hypothesis tests and all Estimator, statistical estimators are derived via statistical models. More generally, statistical models are part of the foundation of statistical inference. Introduction Informally, a statistical model can be thought of as a statistical assumption (or set of statistical assumptions) with a certain property: that ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistic
A statistic (singular) or sample statistic is any quantity computed from values in a sample which is considered for a statistical purpose. Statistical purposes include estimating a population parameter, describing a sample, or evaluating a hypothesis. The average (or mean) of sample values is a statistic. The term statistic is used both for the function and for the value of the function on a given sample. When a statistic is being used for a specific purpose, it may be referred to by a name indicating its purpose. When a statistic is used for estimating a population parameter, the statistic is called an ''estimator''. A population parameter is any characteristic of a population under study, but when it is not feasible to directly measure the value of a population parameter, statistical methods are used to infer the likely value of the parameter on the basis of a statistic computed from a sample taken from the population. For example, the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
