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Average Treatment Effect
The average treatment effect (ATE) is a measure used to compare treatments (or interventions) in randomized experiments, evaluation of policy interventions, and medical trials. The ATE measures the difference in mean (average) outcomes between units assigned to the treatment and units assigned to the control. In a randomized trial (i.e., an experimental study), the average treatment effect can be estimated from a sample using a comparison in mean outcomes for treated and untreated units. However, the ATE is generally understood as a causal parameter (i.e., an estimate or property of a population) that a researcher desires to know, defined without reference to the study design or estimation procedure. Both observational studies and experimental study designs with random assignment may enable one to estimate an ATE in a variety of ways. The average treatment effect is under some conditions directly related to the partial dependence plot. General definition Originating from e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Difference In Differences
Difference in differences (DID or DD) is a statistical technique used in econometrics and quantitative research in the social sciences that attempts to mimic an experimental research design using observational study data, by studying the differential effect of a treatment on a 'treatment group' versus a 'control group' in a natural experiment. It calculates the effect of a treatment (i.e., an explanatory variable or an independent variable) on an outcome (i.e., a response variable or dependent variable) by comparing the average change over time in the outcome variable for the treatment group to the average change over time for the control group. Although it is intended to mitigate the effects of extraneous factors and selection bias, depending on how the treatment group is chosen, this method may still be subject to certain biases (e.g., mean regression, reverse causality and omitted variable bias). In contrast to a time-series estimate of the treatment effect on subjects (wh ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean
A mean is a quantity representing the "center" of a collection of numbers and is intermediate to the extreme values of the set of numbers. There are several kinds of means (or "measures of central tendency") in mathematics, especially in statistics. Each attempts to summarize or typify a given group of data, illustrating the magnitude and sign of the data set. Which of these measures is most illuminating depends on what is being measured, and on context and purpose. The ''arithmetic mean'', also known as "arithmetic average", is the sum of the values divided by the number of values. The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers ''x''1, ''x''2, ..., x''n'' is typically denoted using an overhead bar, \bar. If the numbers are from observing a sample of a larger group, the arithmetic mean is termed the '' sample mean'' (\bar) to distinguish it from the group mean (or expected value) of the underlying distribution, denoted \mu or \mu_x. Outside probability and statistics, a wide rang ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Central Tendency
In statistics, a central tendency (or measure of central tendency) is a central or typical value for a probability distribution.Weisberg H.F (1992) ''Central Tendency and Variability'', Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, p.2 Colloquially, measures of central tendency are often called '' averages.'' The term ''central tendency'' dates from the late 1920s. The most common measures of central tendency are the arithmetic mean, the median, and the mode. A middle tendency can be calculated for either a finite set of values or for a theoretical distribution, such as the normal distribution. Occasionally authors use central tendency to denote "the tendency of quantitative data to cluster around some central value."Upton, G.; Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP (entry for "central tendency")Dodge, Y. (2003) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', OUP for International Statistical Institute. (entry for "cent ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Propensity Score Matching
In the statistical analysis of observational data, propensity score matching (PSM) is a statistical matching technique that attempts to estimate the effect of a treatment, policy, or other intervention by accounting for the covariates that predict receiving the treatment. PSM attempts to reduce the bias due to confounding variables that could be found in an estimate of the treatment effect obtained from simply comparing outcomes among units that received the treatment versus those that did not. Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin introduced the technique in 1983, defining the propensity score as the conditional probability of a unit (e.g., person, classroom, school) being assigned to the treatment, given a set of observed covariates. The possibility of bias arises because a difference in the treatment outcome (such as the average treatment effect) between treated and untreated groups may be caused by a factor that predicts treatment rather than the treatment itself. In ra ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Regression Discontinuity Design
In statistics, econometrics, political science, epidemiology, and related disciplines, a regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental pretest–posttest design that aims to determine the causal effects of interventions by assigning a cutoff or threshold above or below which an intervention is assigned. By comparing observations lying closely on either side of the threshold, it is possible to estimate the average treatment effect in environments in which randomisation is unfeasible. However, it remains impossible to make true causal inference with this method alone, as it does not automatically reject causal effects by any potential confounding variable. First applied by Donald Thistlethwaite and Donald Campbell (1960) to the evaluation of scholarship programs, the RDD has become increasingly popular in recent years. Recent study comparisons of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and RDDs have empirically demonstrated the internal validity of the design. Example ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Natural Experiment
A natural experiment is a study in which individuals (or clusters of individuals) are exposed to the experimental and control conditions that are determined by nature or by other factors outside the control of the investigators. The process governing the exposures arguably resembles random assignment. Thus, natural experiments are ''observational studies'' and are not controlled in the traditional sense of a randomized experiment (an ''intervention study''). Natural experiments are most useful when there has been a clearly defined exposure involving a well defined subpopulation (and the absence of exposure in a similar subpopulation) such that changes in outcomes may be plausibly attributed to the exposure. In this sense, the difference between a natural experiment and a non-experimental observational study is that the former includes a comparison of conditions that pave the way for causal inference, but the latter does not. Natural experiments are employed as study designs whe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Law Of Large Numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean. The law of large numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. Importantly, the law applies (as the name indicates) only when a ''large number'' of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a stre ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Confounding
In causal inference, a confounder is a variable that influences both the dependent variable and independent variable, causing a spurious association. Confounding is a causal concept, and as such, cannot be described in terms of correlations or associations.Pearl, J., (2009). Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility In ''Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference'' (2nd ed.). New York : Cambridge University Press. The existence of confounders is an important quantitative explanation why correlation does not imply causation. Some notations are explicitly designed to identify the existence, possible existence, or non-existence of confounders in causal relationships between elements of a system. Confounders are threats to internal validity. Example Let's assume that a trucking company owns a fleet of trucks made by two different manufacturers. Trucks made by one manufacturer are called "A Trucks" and trucks made by the other manufacturer are called "B Trucks." ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Matching (statistics)
Matching is a statistical technique that evaluates the effect of a treatment by comparing the treated and the non-treated units in an observational study or quasi-experiment (i.e. when the treatment is not randomly assigned). The goal of matching is to reduce bias for the estimated treatment effect in an observational-data study, by finding, for every treated unit, one (or more) non-treated unit(s) with similar observable characteristics against which the covariates are balanced out (similar to the K-nearest neighbors algorithm). By matching treated units to similar non-treated units, matching enables a comparison of outcomes among treated and non-treated units to estimate the effect of the treatment reducing bias due to confounding. Propensity score matching, an early matching technique, was developed as part of the Rubin causal model, but has been shown to increase model dependence, bias, inefficiency, and power and is no longer recommended compared to other matching methods. A si ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Observational Study
In fields such as epidemiology, social sciences, psychology and statistics, an observational study draws inferences from a sample (statistics), sample to a statistical population, population where the dependent and independent variables, independent variable is not under the Scientific control, control of the researcher because of ethical concerns or logistical constraints. One common observational study is about the possible effect of a treatment on subjects, where the assignment of subjects into a treated group versus a control group is outside the control of the investigator. This is in contrast with experiments, such as randomized controlled trials, where each subject is Random assignment, randomly assigned to a treated group or a control group. Observational studies, for lacking an assignment mechanism, naturally present difficulties for inferential analysis. Motivation The independent variable may be beyond the control of the investigator for a variety of reasons: * A rand ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Law Of Large Numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean. The law of large numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. Importantly, the law applies (as the name indicates) only when a ''large number'' of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a stre ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
