|
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
In time series analysis used in statistics and econometrics, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models are generalizations of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to non-stationary series and periodic variation, respectively. All these models are fitted to time series in order to better understand it and predict future values. The purpose of these generalizations is to fit the data as well as possible. Specifically, ARMA assumes that the series is stationary, that is, its expected value is constant in time. If instead the series has a trend (but a constant variance/ autocovariance), the trend is removed by "differencing", leaving a stationary series. This operation generalizes ARMA and corresponds to the " integrated" part of ARIMA. Analogously, periodic variation is removed by "seasonal differencing". Components As in ARMA, the "autoregressive" () part of ARIMA indicates that the evolving variable of interest is regressed on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Time Series Analysis
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''forec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lag Operator
In time series analysis, the lag operator (L) or backshift operator (B) operates on an element of a time series to produce the previous element. For example, given some time series :X= \ then : L X_t = X_ for all t > 1 or similarly in terms of the backshift operator ''B'': B X_t = X_ for all t > 1. Equivalently, this definition can be represented as : X_t = L X_ for all t \geq 1 The lag operator (as well as backshift operator) can be raised to arbitrary integer powers so that : L^ X_ = X_ and : L^k X_ = X_. Lag polynomials Polynomials of the lag operator can be used, and this is a common notation for ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models. For example, : \varepsilon_t = X_t - \sum_^p \varphi_i X_ = \left(1 - \sum_^p \varphi_i L^i\right) X_t specifies an AR(''p'') model. A polynomial of lag operators is called a lag polynomial so that, for example, the ARMA model can be concisely specified as : \varphi (L) X_t = \theta (L) \varepsilon_t where \varphi (L) ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autocorrelation Function
Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, measures the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself. Essentially, it quantifies the similarity between observations of a random variable at different points in time. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for identifying repeating patterns or hidden periodicities within a signal obscured by noise. Autocorrelation is widely used in signal processing, time domain and time series analysis to understand the behavior of data over time. Different fields of study define autocorrelation differently, and not all of these definitions are equivalent. In some fields, the term is used interchangeably with autocovariance. Various time series models incorporate autocorrelation, such as unit root processes, trend-stationary processes, autoregressive processes, and moving average processes. Autocorrelation of stochastic processes In statistics, the autocorrelation of a real or ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for making some determination based on prior assumptions by the user, such as seasonality. Exponential smoothing is often used for analysis of time-series data. Exponential smoothing is one of many window functions commonly applied to smooth data in signal processing, acting as low-pass filters to remove high-frequency noise. This method is preceded by Poisson's use of recursive exponential window functions in convolutions from the 19th century, as well as Kolmogorov and Zurbenko's use of recursive moving averages from their studies of turbulence in the 1940s. The raw data sequence is often represented by \ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Random Walk
In mathematics, a random walk, sometimes known as a drunkard's walk, is a stochastic process that describes a path that consists of a succession of random steps on some Space (mathematics), mathematical space. An elementary example of a random walk is the random walk on the integer number line \mathbb Z which starts at 0, and at each step moves +1 or −1 with equal probability. Other examples include the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas (see Brownian motion), the search path of a foraging animal, or the price of a fluctuating random walk hypothesis, stock and the financial status of a gambler. Random walks have applications to engineering and many scientific fields including ecology, psychology, computer science, physics, chemistry, biology, economics, and sociology. The term ''random walk'' was first introduced by Karl Pearson in 1905. Realizations of random walks can be obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation, Monte Carlo simulation. Lattice random ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
White Noise
In signal processing, white noise is a random signal having equal intensity at different frequencies, giving it a constant power spectral density. The term is used with this or similar meanings in many scientific and technical disciplines, including physics, acoustical engineering, telecommunications, and statistical forecasting. White noise refers to a statistical model for signals and signal sources, not to any specific signal. White noise draws its name from white light, although light that appears white generally does not have a flat power spectral density over the visible band. In discrete time, white noise is a discrete signal whose samples are regarded as a sequence of serially uncorrelated random variables with zero mean and finite variance; a single realization of white noise is a random shock. In some contexts, it is also required that the samples be independent and have identical probability distribution (in other words independent and identically distribu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autoregressive–moving-average Model
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models are a way to describe a (weakly) stationary stochastic process using autoregression (AR) and a moving average (MA), each with a polynomial. They are a tool for understanding a series and predicting future values. AR involves regressing the variable on its own lagged (i.e., past) values. MA involves modeling the error as a linear combination of error terms occurring contemporaneously and at various times in the past. The model is usually denoted ARMA(''p'', ''q''), where ''p'' is the order of AR and ''q'' is the order of MA. The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, ''Hypothesis testing in time series analysis'', and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins. ARMA models can be estimated by using the Box–Jenkins method. Mathematical formulation Autoregressive model The notation AR(''p'') refers to the autoregressi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Comb Filter
In signal processing, a comb filter is a Filter (signal processing), filter implemented by adding a delayed version of a signal processing, signal to itself, causing constructive and destructive Interference (wave propagation), interference. The frequency response of a comb filter consists of a series of regularly spaced notches in between regularly spaced ''peaks'' (sometimes called ''teeth'') giving the appearance of a comb. Comb filters exist in two forms, ''feedforward'' and ''feedback''; which refer to the direction in which signals are delayed before they are added to the input. Comb filters may be implemented in discrete time or continuous time forms which are very similar. Applications Comb filters are employed in a variety of signal processing applications, including: * Cascaded integrator–comb filter, Cascaded integrator–comb (CIC) filters, commonly used for anti-aliasing filter, anti-aliasing during interpolation and decimation (signal processing), decimation o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
High-pass Filter
A high-pass filter (HPF) is an electronic filter that passes signals with a frequency higher than a certain cutoff frequency and attenuates signals with frequencies lower than the cutoff frequency. The amount of attenuation for each frequency depends on the filter design. A high-pass filter is usually modeled as a linear time-invariant system. It is sometimes called a low-cut filter or bass-cut filter in the context of audio engineering. High-pass filters have many uses, such as blocking DC from circuitry sensitive to non-zero average voltages or radio frequency devices. They can also be used in conjunction with a low-pass filter to produce a band-pass filter. In the optical domain filters are often characterised by wavelength rather than frequency. High-pass and low-pass have the opposite meanings, with a "high-pass" filter (more commonly "short-pass") passing only ''shorter'' wavelengths (higher frequencies), and vice versa for "low-pass" (more commonly "long-pass"). De ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fourier Analysis
In mathematics, Fourier analysis () is the study of the way general functions may be represented or approximated by sums of simpler trigonometric functions. Fourier analysis grew from the study of Fourier series, and is named after Joseph Fourier, who showed that representing a function as a sum of trigonometric functions greatly simplifies the study of heat transfer. The subject of Fourier analysis encompasses a vast spectrum of mathematics. In the sciences and engineering, the process of decomposing a function into oscillatory components is often called Fourier analysis, while the operation of rebuilding the function from these pieces is known as Fourier synthesis. For example, determining what component frequencies are present in a musical note would involve computing the Fourier transform of a sampled musical note. One could then re-synthesize the same sound by including the frequency components as revealed in the Fourier analysis. In mathematics, the term ''Fourier an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Deseasonalization
Seasonal adjustment or deseasonalization is a statistical method for removing the Seasonality, seasonal component of a time series. It is usually done when wanting to analyse the trend, and cyclical deviations from trend, of a time series independently of the seasonal components. Many economic phenomena have seasonal cycles, such as Pork cycle, agricultural production, (crop yields fluctuate with the seasons) and consumer consumption (increased personal spending leading up to Christmas). It is necessary to adjust for this component in order to understand underlying trends in the economy, so official statistics are often adjusted to remove seasonal components. Typically, seasonally adjusted data is reported for unemployment rates to reveal the underlying trends and cycles in labor markets. Time series components The investigation of many economic time series becomes problematic due to seasonal fluctuations. Time series are made up of four components: *S_t: The seasonal component * ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Trend Stationary
In the statistical analysis of time series, a trend-stationary process is a stochastic process from which an underlying trend (function solely of time) can be removed, leaving a stationary process. The trend does not have to be linear. Conversely, if the process requires differencing to be made stationary, then it is called difference stationary and possesses one or more unit roots. Those two concepts may sometimes be confused, but while they share many properties, they are different in many aspects. It is possible for a time series to be non-stationary, yet have no unit root and be trend-stationary. In both unit root and trend-stationary processes, the mean can be growing or decreasing over time; however, in the presence of a shock, trend-stationary processes are mean-reverting (i.e. transitory, the time series will converge again towards the growing mean, which was not affected by the shock) while unit-root processes have a permanent impact on the mean (i.e. no convergence over ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
