Swanson's Law
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Swanson's Law
Swanson's law is the observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs go down 75% about every 10 years. Origin It is named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower Corporation, a solar panel manufacturer. Note: Read more about current innovations in solar technology. The term ''Swanson's Law'' appears to have originated with an article in ''The Economist'' published in late 2012. Swanson had been presenting such curves at technical conferences for several years. It is a misnomer in that Swanson was not the first person to make this observation. Swanson's law has been compared to Moore's law, which predicts the growing computing power of processors. Swanson's Law is a solar industry specific application of the more general Wright's Law which states there will be a fixed cost reduction for each doubling of manufacturing volume. Technical Background The method used ...
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Theodore Paul Wright
Theodore Paul Wright (May 25, 1895 – August 21, 1970), also known as T. P. Wright, was a U.S. aeronautical engineer and educator. Biography He was born in Galesburg, Illinois on May 25, 1895. His father was the economist Philip Green Wright and his brothers were the geneticist Sewall Wright and the political scientist Quincy Wright. He graduated from Lombard College and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He served in World War I. In 1936, he published an important paper entitled "Factors affecting the costs of airplanes" which describes what is known as '' Wright's law'' or experience curve effects. The paper describes that "we learn by doing" and that the cost of each unit produced decreases as a function of the cumulative number of units produced. He served as administrator of the Civil Aeronautics Administration during 1944–1948. When President Truman announced Wright’s resignation as Administrator of Civil Aeronautics on January 16, 1948, the ''New York Ti ...
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Photovoltaic System
A photovoltaic system, also PV system or solar power system, is an electric power system designed to supply usable solar power by means of photovoltaics. It consists of an arrangement of several components, including solar panels to absorb and convert sunlight into electricity, a solar inverter to convert the output from direct current, direct to alternating current, as well as photovoltaic mounting system, mounting, solar cable, cabling, and other electrical accessories to set up a working system. It may also use a solar tracking system to improve the system's overall performance and include an rechargeable battery, integrated battery. PV systems convert light directly into electricity, and are not to be confused with other solar technologies, such as concentrated solar power or Solar thermal energy, solar thermal, used for heating and cooling. A solar array only encompasses the ensemble of solar panels, the visible part of the PV system, and does not include all the other hardw ...
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Log–log Plot
In science and engineering, a log–log graph or log–log plot is a two-dimensional graph of numerical data that uses logarithmic scales on both the horizontal and vertical axes. Power functions – relationships of the form y=ax^k – appear as straight lines in a log–log graph, with the exponent corresponding to the slope, and the coefficient corresponding to the intercept. Thus these graphs are very useful for recognizing these relationships and estimating parameters. Any base can be used for the logarithm, though most commonly base 10 (common logs) are used. Relation with monomials Given a monomial equation y=ax^k, taking the logarithm of the equation (with any base) yields: \log y = k \log x + \log a. Setting X = \log x and Y = \log y, which corresponds to using a log–log graph, yields the equation: Y = mX + b where ''m'' = ''k'' is the slope of the line (gradient) and ''b'' = log ''a'' is the intercept on the (log ''y'')-axis, meaning w ...
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Learning Curve
A learning curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between how Skill, proficient people are at a task and the amount of experience they have. Proficiency (measured on the vertical axis) usually increases with increased experience (the horizontal axis), that is to say, the more someone, groups, companies or industries perform a task, the better their performance at the task.Compare: The common expression "a steep learning curve" is a misnomer suggesting that an activity is difficult to learn and that expending much effort does not increase proficiency by much, although a learning curve with a steep start actually represents rapid progress., see the "Discussions" section, Dr. Smith's remark about the usage of the term "steep learning curve": "First, semantics. A steep learning curve is one where you gain proficiency over a short number of trials. That means the curve is steep. I think semantically we are really talking about a prolonged or long learning curve. I kn ...
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Growth Of Photovoltaics
Worldwide growth of photovoltaics has been close to exponential between 1992 and 2018. During this period of time, photovoltaics (PV), also known as solar PV, evolved from a niche market of small-scale applications to a mainstream electricity source. When solar PV systems were first recognized as a promising renewable energy technology, subsidy programs, such as feed-in tariffs, were implemented by a number of governments in order to provide economic incentives for investments. For several years, growth was mainly driven by Japan and pioneering European countries. As a consequence, cost of solar declined significantly due to experience curve effects like improvements in technology and economies of scale. Several national programs were instrumental in increasing PV deployment, such as the Energiewende in Germany, the Million Solar Roofs project in the United States, and China's 2011 five-year-plan for energy production. Since then, deployment of photovoltaics has gained momentu ...
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Economies Of Scale
In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of operation, and are typically measured by the amount of output produced per unit of time. A decrease in cost per unit of output enables an increase in scale. At the basis of economies of scale, there may be technical, statistical, organizational or related factors to the degree of market control. This is just a partial description of the concept. Economies of scale apply to a variety of the organizational and business situations and at various levels, such as a production, plant or an entire enterprise. When average costs start falling as output increases, then economies of scale occur. Some economies of scale, such as capital cost of manufacturing facilities and friction loss of transportation and industrial equipment, have a physical or engineering basis. The economic concept dates back to Adam Smith and the idea of obtaining larger production returns through the use ...
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Crystalline Silicon
Crystalline silicon or (c-Si) Is the crystalline forms of silicon, either polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si, consisting of small crystals), or monocrystalline silicon (mono-Si, a continuous crystal). Crystalline silicon is the dominant semiconducting material used in photovoltaic technology for the production of solar cells. These cells are assembled into solar panels as part of a photovoltaic system to generate solar power from sunlight. In electronics, crystalline silicon is typically the monocrystalline form of silicon, and is used for producing microchips. This silicon contains much lower impurity levels than those required for solar cells. Production of semiconductor grade silicon involves a chemical purification to produce Hyper-pure Polysilicon, followed by a recrystallization process to grow monocrystalline silicon. The cylindrical boules are then cut into wafers for further processing. Solar cells made of crystalline silicon are often called ''conventional'', ''trad ...
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Experience Curve
In industry, models of the learning or experience curve effect express the relationship between experience producing a good and the efficiency of that production, specifically, efficiency gains that follow investment in the effort. The effect has large implications for costs and market share, which can increase competitive advantage over time. History: from psychological learning curves to the learning curve effect An early empirical demonstration of learning curves was produced in 1885 by the German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus. Ebbinghaus was investigating the difficulty of memorizing verbal stimuli. He found that performance increased in proportion to experience (practice and testing) on memorizing the word set. (More detail about the complex processes of learning are discussed in the Learning curve article.) Wright's law and the discovery of the learning curve effect This was later more generalized to: the more times a task has been performed, the less time is required ...
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Photovoltaic Module
Photovoltaics (PV) is the conversion of light into electricity using semiconducting materials that exhibit the photovoltaic effect, a phenomenon studied in physics, photochemistry, and electrochemistry. The photovoltaic effect is commercially used for electricity generation and as photosensors. A photovoltaic system employs solar modules, each comprising a number of solar cells, which generate electrical power. PV installations may be ground-mounted, rooftop-mounted, wall-mounted or floating. The mount may be fixed or use a solar tracker to follow the sun across the sky. Photovoltaic technology helps to mitigate climate change because it emits much less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels. Solar PV has specific advantages as an energy source: once installed, its operation generates no pollution and no greenhouse gas emissions, it shows scalability in respect of power needs and silicon has large availability in the Earth's crust, although other materials required in PV system man ...
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Learning Curve
A learning curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between how Skill, proficient people are at a task and the amount of experience they have. Proficiency (measured on the vertical axis) usually increases with increased experience (the horizontal axis), that is to say, the more someone, groups, companies or industries perform a task, the better their performance at the task.Compare: The common expression "a steep learning curve" is a misnomer suggesting that an activity is difficult to learn and that expending much effort does not increase proficiency by much, although a learning curve with a steep start actually represents rapid progress., see the "Discussions" section, Dr. Smith's remark about the usage of the term "steep learning curve": "First, semantics. A steep learning curve is one where you gain proficiency over a short number of trials. That means the curve is steep. I think semantically we are really talking about a prolonged or long learning curve. I kn ...
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Wright's Law
In industry, models of the learning or experience curve effect express the relationship between experience producing a good and the efficiency of that production, specifically, efficiency gains that follow investment in the effort. The effect has large implications for costs and market share, which can increase competitive advantage over time. History: from psychological learning curves to the learning curve effect An early empirical demonstration of learning curves was produced in 1885 by the German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus. Ebbinghaus was investigating the difficulty of memorizing verbal stimuli. He found that performance increased in proportion to experience (practice and testing) on memorizing the word set. (More detail about the complex processes of learning are discussed in the Learning curve article.) Wright's law and the discovery of the learning curve effect This was later more generalized to: the more times a task has been performed, the less time is required on ...
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