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Post-election Pendulum For The Australian Federal Election, 2007
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007. The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is the independent federal agency in charge of organising, conducting and supervising federal Australian elections, by-ele ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Two-party-preferred percentage The two-party preferred (2PP) method of prediction attempts to estimate the flow of second and subsequent preferences from smaller parties in order of their expec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Bass
The Division of Bass is an Australian electoral division in Tasmania. Geography Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. History The division was one of the five established when the former Division of Tasmania was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named for the explorer George Bass. It has always been based on the city of Launceston and surrounding rural areas, and its boundaries have changed very little in the century since its creation. For most of its history it has been a marginal seat, changing hands between the Australian Labor Party and the conservative parties—since 1949 the Liberal Party. Its most notabl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Janelle Saffin
Janelle Anne Saffin (born 1 November 1954) is an Australian Labor Party politician. She has been the Member for Lismore in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly since 23 March 2019. She was the Member for Page in the Australian House of Representatives from 2007 to 2013, and a Member of the New South Wales Legislative Council from 1995 to 2003. Early life Saffin was born into a working-class family in Ipswich in Queensland. She left school at thirteen, and worked in a range of unskilled jobs before gaining her Intermediate Certificate at TAFE. She moved to Lismore at the age of 24, and began working as the co-ordinator of a women's refuge. She also established a domestic violence liaison committee with the local police, which was the first of its kind outside Sydney. She later gained a teaching qualification at the Northern Rivers College of Advanced Education, and taught for a period before deciding to retrain as a lawyer and gaining a degree by correspondence from Macqua ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Page
The Division of Page is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. History The division is named after the Right Honourable Sir Earle Page, the second leader of the Country Party of Australia and the Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Joseph Lyons in 1939. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984, and was first contested at the 1984 federal election. Since its creation, Page has usually been a marginal seat, frequently changing hands between the National Party and the Labor Party, with neither party gaining more than 55% of the two party preferred vote at any election except for the 1984 election, the 2019 election and the 2022 Australian federal election . It was considered a bellwether seat from the 1990 election until 2022, when it was comfortably won by the National Party, despite the victory of the Labor Party under Anthony Albanese. Though results vary by election, booths in the City of Lismore LGA a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yvette D'Ath
Yvette Maree D'Ath (born 26 July 1970) is an Australian politician. She is a Labor member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland representing the seat of Redcliffe. D'Ath is currently the Minister for Health and Ambulance Services and Leader of the House. She was previously a Labor member of the Australian House of Representatives representing the outer Brisbane seat of Petrie from 2007 to 2013. Education and early career D'Ath graduated from the Queensland University of Technology with a Bachelor of Laws, followed by a Graduate Diploma in Legal Practice from the Australian National University. After working as a waitress, she was appointed an associate to the Queensland Industrial Relations Commission, serving between 1992 and 1994. She then became a senior industrial advocate for the Australian Workers' Union in Queensland. Federal politics D'Ath won the seat of Petrie for Labor from Liberal Teresa Gambaro at the 2007 election with a 2-point margin from a 9.5-point swing ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Petrie
The Division of Petrie is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. History The division was created in 1949 and named after Andrew Petrie (1798–1872), a noted civil engineer, pioneer, and explorer, and the first free settler in Brisbane (1837). The electorate has a higher-than-average percentage of pensioners and self-funded retirees, and is mainly residential, with some light industrial and commercial activities. Originally a safe Liberal seat, it has become much more marginal since the late 1970s. Since 1975, it has been held by the party of government for all but one term. Ahead of the 2016 federal election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as "bellwether" electorates. Boundaries Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sid Sidebottom
Peter Sid Sidebottom (born 23 April 1951) is an Australian former politician. Sidebottom was an Australian Labor Party member of the Australian House of Representatives, representing the Division of Braddon in Tasmania between 1998 and 2004 and again from the 2007 federal election until his defeat in 2013. In 2011, Sidebottom was appointed the Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. He was defeated for a second time at the 2013 election, with a swing of 10% against him. Background and early career Sidebottom was born in Hobart, Tasmania. He graduated from the University of Tasmania with a Bachelor of Arts (honours); and was a senior secondary college teacher between 1975 and 1997. During 1998, he was an electorate officer for Senator Nick Sherry and again worked for Sherry as an advisor between 2004 and 2007. Sidebottom was elected as a Councillor of the Central Coast Council, serving between 1996 and 1998. Political career At the 1998 federal electio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Braddon
The Division of Braddon is an Australian electoral division in the state of Tasmania. The current MP is Gavin Pearce of the Liberal Party, who was elected at the 2019 federal election. Braddon is a rural electorate covering approximately in the north-west and west of Tasmania, including King Island. The cities of and are major population centres in the division. Other towns include , , , , , , , , , , , and . Geography Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. History The division was created at the Tasmanian redistribution on 30 August 1955, essentially as a reconfigured version of the Division of Darwin. It is na ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mike Symon
Michael Stuart Symon (born 21 February 1965) is an Australian politician who was elected to the Australian House of Representatives at the 2007 federal election as the Australian Labor Party member for the federal seat of Deakin. He had previously been an electrician and was Occupational Health and Safety Officer of the Electrical Trades Union. He defeated the sitting Liberal member, Phil Barresi, who had held the seat since 1996. The seat had been one of the most marginal Liberal seats in the country for almost three decades. Barresi led for most of the night, but on the fifth count a large flow of Green preferences allowed Symon to become only the second Labor MP in the seat's 70-year history. At the 2010 election, Symon faced Barresi again, and was reelected with a slight swing in his favour—again due to Green preferences. At the 2013 federal election, Symon suffered a swing of 3.8% against him and was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Sukkar Michael Sven S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Deakin
The Division of Deakin is an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria. Geography Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. History The division was created in 1937, and was named in honour of Alfred Deakin, who served as Prime Minister of Australia on three non-consecutive occasions from 1903 to 1910. Deakin had represented the Victorian federal seat of Ballarat from 1901 to 1913. Initially a rural seat, the division has been located in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne since 1949, today taking in Bayswater North, Croydon, Croydon North, Croydon South, East Ringwood, Heatherdale, Heathmont, Kilsyth South, Mitcham, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Maxine McKew
Maxine Margaret McKew (born 22 July 1953) is a former Australian Labor politician and journalist; she was the Parliamentary Secretary for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government in the First Rudd Ministry and the First Gillard Ministry. Between 2007 and 2010, she was the member of the House of Representatives for the Division of Bennelong, New South Wales. Until 2007, the seat was held by the then Prime Minister John Howard, who had been the member for 33 years. She was only the second person to unseat a sitting Australian prime minister since Jack Holloway defeated Stanley Bruce in 1929; and the third person to unseat the leader of a major party, after Neville Newell defeated Charles Blunt, leader of the National Party, in 1990. At the 2010 Federal election she lost her seat to the Liberal Party candidate, John Alexander. Before entering politics, McKew was an award-winning broadcast journalist. She hosted a number of programs on Australian Br ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Division Of Bennelong
The Division of Bennelong is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1949 and is named after Woollarawarre Bennelong, an Aboriginal man befriended by the first Governor of New South Wales, Arthur Phillip. The seat is represented by Jerome Laxale since the 2022 Australian federal election Bennelong covers 60 km2 of the Northern Sydney region, including all of the local government areas of Ryde and parts of Hornsby and Parramatta. It includes the suburbs of Denistone, Denistone East, Denistone West, East Ryde, Eastwood, Epping, Macquarie Park, Marsfield, Meadowbank, Melrose Park, North Epping, North Ryde, Putney, Ryde, Tennyson Point and West Ryde; as well as parts of Beecroft, Carlingford, Chatswood West, Dundas, Ermington and Gladesville. It was represented from 1974 until 2007 by John Howard, who served as the Prime Minister of Australia from 1996 until 2007. As well as his government then being de ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
