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Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted that"(f)or ten years, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might Estimation, estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional data, cross-sectional or longitudinal study, longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Superforecaster
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not use analytical and statistical techniques, though this has been overstated in some sources. The term "superforecaster" is a trademark of Good Judgment Inc. Etymology The term is a combination of the prefix , meaning "over and above" or "of high grade or quality", and , meaning one who predicts an outcome that might occur in the future. History Origins of the term are attributed to Philip E. Tetlock with results from The Good Judgment Project and subsequent book with Dan Gardner '' Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction''. In December 2019 a Central Intelligence Agency analyst writ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
PollyVote
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online. The project started in March 2004 to demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts. In averaging forecasts within and across different forecasting methods, the combined PollyVote forecast provided highly accurate predictions of the two-party popular vote shares for the last three U.S. presidential elections. History The PollyVote was created in March 2004 by marketing and forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong and political science professorAlfred CuzánanRandall Jones The goal at that time was to apply the combination principle in forecasting to predict President Bush's share of the two-party popular vote (omitting minor candidates ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Data Science
Data science is an interdisciplinary academic field that uses statistics, scientific computing, scientific methods, processing, scientific visualization, algorithms and systems to extract or extrapolate knowledge from potentially noisy, structured, or unstructured data. Data science also integrates domain knowledge from the underlying application domain (e.g., natural sciences, information technology, and medicine). Data science is multifaceted and can be described as a science, a research paradigm, a research method, a discipline, a workflow, and a profession. Data science is "a concept to unify statistics, data analysis, informatics, and their related methods" to "understand and analyze actual phenomena" with data. It uses techniques and theories drawn from many fields within the context of mathematics, statistics, computer science, information science, and domain knowledge. However, data science is different from computer science and information science. Turing Awar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Analyst
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and laws. Specialists in the field are political scientists. History Origin Political science is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political institutions, political thought and behavior, and associated constitutions and laws. As a social science, contemporary political science started to take shape in the latter half of the 19th century and began to separate itself from political philosophy and history. Into the late 19th century, it was still uncommon for political science to be considered a distinct field from history. The term "political science" was not always distinguished from political philosophy, and the modern discipline has a clear set of antecedents including mo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabato (; born August 7, 1952) is an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections. He is well known in American political media as a popular pundit, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources. Early life and education Sabato grew up in Norfolk, Virginia, graduating from Norfolk Catholic High School in 1970. Sabato is of Italian heritage. Sabato graduated from the University of Virginia in 1974. A 1974 '' Cavalier Daily'' poll showed more people could identify Sabato as student government president than could name Edgar F. Shannon Jr. as University p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral Geography
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geography, geographic space and using geographical techniques. Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical facts affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects electoral results. The purpose of the analysis is to identify and understand driving factors and the electoral characteristics of territories in a broad and integrative manner.John A. Agnew, Agnew, John. 1996. “Mapping politics: how context counts in electoral geography”. In Political Geography, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 129-146. Elsevier: London, United Kingdom. Elections Elections serve as the central political expression and exercise of power within democratic states,Jones, Martin, Jones, Rhys, and Woods, Michael. 2006. “Democracy, participation and citizenship”. In An Introduction to Political Geography: Space, Pla ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy and pollster, known for its political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It uses MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) to combine national factors and local demographics. Main features Electoral Calculus was founded and is run by Martin Baxter, who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The Electoral Calculus website includes election data, predictions and analysis. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. Methodology The election predictions are based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography. Up to 2017, it used a modified uniform national swing, and it took account of national polls and trends but excluded local issues. Since 2019, they have used MRP (Multi-Level Regression and Post-Stratification) methods to make their election pre ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
British Polling Council
The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of market research companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom. The current President is Jane Green. The BPC was established in 2004, twelve years after the perceived failure of opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result of the 1992 general election. BPC members use a range of fieldwork methods (telephone, door-to-door, and internet) and statistical tools. Members Founding members The following organisations are founding members of the BPC: * Ipsos MORI (now Ipsos) * ORB International * SavantaComRes (now Savanta) * Kantar Public (now Verian) * YouGov NOP (now known as GfK) was a founding member, but is no longer a member as of 2018. Other members The following organisations are non-founding members of the BPC: *BMG Research *Bradshaw Advisory *Censuswide *Deltapoll *Electoral Calculus *Find Out Now *Focaldata *Forefront Market Research *Ha ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ranked Voting
Ranked voting is any voting system that uses voters' Ordinal utility, rankings of candidates to choose a single winner or multiple winners. More formally, a ranked vote system depends only on voters' total order, order of preference of the candidates. Ranked voting systems vary dramatically in how preferences are tabulated and counted, which gives them Comparison of voting rules, very different properties. In instant-runoff voting (IRV) and the single transferable vote system (STV), lower preferences are used as contingencies (back-up preferences) and are only applied when all higher-ranked preferences on a ballot have been eliminated or when the vote has been cast for a candidate who has been elected and surplus votes need to be transferred. Ranked votes of this type do not suffer the problem that a marked lower preference may be used against a voter's higher marked preference. Some ranked vote systems use ranks as weights; these systems are called positional voting. In the B ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are a group of real-money prediction markets/ futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes. Overview The IEM allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on, among other things, political election results and economic indicators. Some markets are only available to academic traders. The IEM also trades futures based on financial markets, such as predicting whether the Fed Funds rate will be increased at the next meeting. The IEM has often been used to predict the results of political elections with a greater accuracy than traditional polls. Accessed: 10/26/2012 A precursor to the IEM wa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
