Contingency Market
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Contingency Market
Contingency markets are markets where contracts are made to exchange funds contingent upon an event or combination of events or contingencies thereof. Difference from prediction markets Prediction markets are a subset of contingency markets and specialise in independent future events and are often exploited for the predictive side effect they produce. Complex contingencies only tend to occur in the gambling industry's implementations of prediction markets. Unlike prediction markets, contingency markets also support dependent future events. These are a priori directly influenced or controlled by those interested in a particular outcome of an event. See also *Insurance * Threshold pledge * Assurance contracts *Betting exchange A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet on the outcome of discrete events. Betting exchanges offer the same opportunities to bet as a bookmaker with a few differences. Gamblers can buy (also known as "back") and sell (also known ... * Pre ...
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Contract
A contract is a legally enforceable agreement between two or more parties that creates, defines, and governs mutual rights and obligations between them. A contract typically involves the transfer of goods, services, money, or a promise to transfer any of those at a future date. In the event of a breach of contract, the injured party may seek judicial remedies such as damages or rescission. Contract law, the field of the law of obligations concerned with contracts, is based on the principle that agreements must be honoured. Contract law, like other areas of private law, varies between jurisdictions. The various systems of contract law can broadly be split between common law jurisdictions, civil law jurisdictions, and mixed law jurisdictions which combine elements of both common and civil law. Common law jurisdictions typically require contracts to include consideration in order to be valid, whereas civil and most mixed law jurisdictions solely require a meeting of the mind ...
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Prediction Market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the ...
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Gambling
Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of value ("the stakes") on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration (an amount wagered), risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season. The term "gaming" in this context typically refers to instances in which the activity has been specifically permitted by law. The two words are not mutually exclusive; ''i.e.'', a "gaming" company offers (legal) "gambling" activities to the public and may be regulated by one of many gaming control boards, for example, the Nevada Gaming Control Board. However, this distinction is not u ...
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A Priori And A Posteriori
("from the earlier") and ("from the later") are Latin phrases used in philosophy to distinguish types of knowledge, justification, or argument by their reliance on empirical evidence or experience. knowledge is independent from current experience (e.g., as part of a new study). Examples include mathematics,Some associationist philosophers have contended that mathematics comes from experience and is not a form of any a priori knowledge () tautologies, and deduction from pure reason.Galen Strawson has stated that an argument is one in which "you can see that it is true just lying on your couch. You don't have to get up off your couch and go outside and examine the way things are in the physical world. You don't have to do any science." () knowledge depends on empirical evidence. Examples include most fields of science and aspects of personal knowledge. The terms originate from the analytic methods found in ''Organon'', a collection of works by Aristotle. Prior analytic ...
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Insurance
Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss in which, in exchange for a fee, a party agrees to compensate another party in the event of a certain loss, damage, or injury. It is a form of risk management, primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent or uncertain loss. An entity which provides insurance is known as an insurer, insurance company, insurance carrier, or underwriter. A person or entity who buys insurance is known as a policyholder, while a person or entity covered under the policy is called an insured. The insurance transaction involves the policyholder assuming a guaranteed, known, and relatively small loss in the form of a payment to the insurer (a premium) in exchange for the insurer's promise to compensate the insured in the event of a covered loss. The loss may or may not be financial, but it must be reducible to financial terms. Furthermore, it usually involves something in which the insured has an insurable interest established by ...
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Threshold Pledge
The threshold pledge or fund and release system is a way of making a fundraising pledge as a group of individuals, often involving charitable goals or financing the provision of a public good. An amount of money is set as the goal or ''threshold'' to reach for the specified purpose and interested individuals will pitch in, but the money at first either remains with the pledgers or is held in escrow. When the threshold is reached, the pledges are called in (or transferred from the escrow fund) and a contract is formed so that the collective good is supplied; a variant is that the money is collected when the good is actually delivered. If the threshold is not reached by a certain date (or perhaps if no contract is ever signed, etc.), the pledges are either never collected or, if held in escrow, are simply returned to the pledgers. In economics, this type of model is known as an assurance contract. This system is most often applied to creative works, both for financing new produc ...
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Assurance Contracts
An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. Operation In a binding way, members of a group pledge to contribute to ...
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Betting Exchange
A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet on the outcome of discrete events. Betting exchanges offer the same opportunities to bet as a bookmaker with a few differences. Gamblers can buy (also known as "back") and sell (also known as "lay") the outcome, and they can trade in real-time throughout the event, either to cut their losses or lock in profit. Bookmaker operators generate revenue by offering less efficient odds. Betting exchanges normally generate revenue by charging a small commission on winning bets. History The first betting exchanges were Matchbook, flutter.com and Betfair. Flutter and Betfair merged in 2001 with Betfair chosen as the primary betting exchange. The flutter.com site ceased operations in January 2002. Since then Betfair has maintained a leading position in the betting exchange market. BETDAQ (which also traded as the 'Ladbrokes Exchange') is believed to be the second largest betting exchange and it had an estimated 7% share of the bettin ...
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Preorder Economy
A preorder economy is a type of proposed future economy where the exact demand for goods is known ahead of time, before any material production takes place. It has been discussed within the framework of ecological economics. Just-in-time manufacturing Creating a preorder economy has recently been proposed as an economic efficiency solution to the environmental problems facing modern society. These environmental challenges are believed to be caused in part by unsustainable levels of production, consumption and advertising related to the imperfect exchange of information in market economies. Therefore, preorder economy theory advocates using the Internet as the means to coordinate all production with existing consumer desires, so that almost nothing is made which does not have someone ready to buy it. This is the idea of just in time manufacturing taken to its logical end. See also * Assurance contract An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdac ...
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Prediction Markets
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the ...
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