United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2004
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004 as part of the
2004 United States presidential election The 2004 United States presidential election was the 55th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. The Republican ticket of incumbent President George W. Bush and his running mate incumbent Vice President Dick Chene ...
. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for
president President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) *President (education), a leader of a college or university *President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ful ...
and
vice president A vice president, also director in British English, is an officer in government or business who is below the president (chief executive officer) in rank. It can also refer to executive vice presidents, signifying that the vice president is on t ...
.
Minnesota Minnesota () is a state in the upper midwestern region of the United States. It is the 12th largest U.S. state in area and the 22nd most populous, with over 5.75 million residents. Minnesota is home to western prairies, now given over to ...
was won by Democratic nominee
John Kerry John Forbes Kerry (born December 11, 1943) is an American attorney, politician and diplomat who currently serves as the first United States special presidential envoy for climate. A member of the Forbes family and the Democratic Party (Unite ...
by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a major
swing state In American politics, the term swing state (also known as battleground state or purple state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to pre ...
in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically a
blue state Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party — the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in b ...
, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was
Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...
in
1972 Within the context of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) it was the longest year ever, as two leap seconds were added during this 366-day year, an event which has not since been repeated. (If its start and end are defined using Solar time, me ...
. However, in
2000 File:2000 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Protests against Bush v. Gore after the 2000 United States presidential election; Heads of state meet for the Millennium Summit; The International Space Station in its infant form as seen from ...
Al Gore Albert Arnold Gore Jr. (born March 31, 1948) is an American politician, businessman, and environmentalist who served as the 45th vice president of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. Gore was the Democratic Part ...
carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.5%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as a
faithless elector In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or ...
pledged to Kerry cast a ballot for
John Edwards Johnny Reid Edwards (born June 10, 1953) is an American lawyer and former politician who served as a U.S. senator from North Carolina. He was the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2004 alongside John Kerry, losing to incumbents George ...
(written as ''John Ewards''), his running mate.


Caucuses

* 2004 Republican Party presidential primaries * 2004 Minnesota Democratic presidential caucuses


Campaign


Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. # D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat #
Associated Press The Associated Press (AP) is an American non-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1846, it operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association. It produces news reports that are distributed to its members, U.S. newspa ...
: Leans Kerry #
CNN CNN (Cable News Network) is a multinational cable news channel headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S. Founded in 1980 by American media proprietor Ted Turner and Reese Schonfeld as a 24-hour cable news channel, and presently owned by ...
: Kerry #
Cook Political Report ''The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter'' is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. Presidency, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and U.S. governors' offices. Sel ...
: Toss-up #
Newsweek ''Newsweek'' is an American weekly online news magazine co-owned 50 percent each by Dev Pragad, its president and CEO, and Johnathan Davis (businessman), Johnathan Davis, who has no operational role at ''Newsweek''. Founded as a weekly print m ...
: Toss-up #
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
: Toss-up #
Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, ...
: Toss-up #
Research 2000 Research 2000 was a U.S. opinion polling and marketing research company based in Olney, Maryland. It began doing research on upcoming elections in 1999 after its President, Del Ali, moved on from Mason-Dixon Political Media Research. Research ...
: Lean Kerry #
Washington Post ''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large nati ...
: Battleground #
Washington Times ''The Washington Times'' is an American conservative daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., that covers general interest topics with a particular emphasis on national politics. Its broadsheet daily edition is distributed throughout ...
: Battleground #
Zogby International John J. Zogby (born September 3, 1948) is an American public opinion pollster, author, and public speaker. He is founder of the Zogby International poll, and he serves as a senior partner at John Zogby Strategies, a full-service marketing and p ...
: Kerry # Washington Dispatch: Kerry


Polling

Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll by
Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, ...
, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3. The last poll average by
Real Clear Politics RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. The site features selected political ...
showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%. Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.


Fundraising

Bush raised $2,507,181. Kerry raised $2,635,150.


Advertising and visits

Both tickets visited the state 7 times. A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.


Analysis

Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as a
blue state Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party — the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in b ...
, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee in
Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...
's 1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats during
Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan ( ; February 6, 1911June 5, 2004) was an American politician, actor, and union leader who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He also served as the 33rd governor of California from 1967 ...
's two landslides in
1980 Events January * January 4 – U.S. President Jimmy Carter proclaims a grain embargo against the USSR with the support of the European Commission. * January 6 – Global Positioning System time epoch begins at 00:00 UTC. * January 9 – ...
and
1984 Events January * January 1 – The Bornean Sultanate of Brunei gains full independence from the United Kingdom, having become a British protectorate in 1888. * January 7 – Brunei becomes the sixth member of the Association of Southeast A ...
. However, in
2000 File:2000 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Protests against Bush v. Gore after the 2000 United States presidential election; Heads of state meet for the Millennium Summit; The International Space Station in its infant form as seen from ...
and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins. In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had either
Bush Bush commonly refers to: * Shrub, a small or medium woody plant Bush, Bushes, or the bush may also refer to: People * Bush (surname), including any of several people with that name **Bush family, a prominent American family that includes: *** ...
or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts:
Minnesota's 4th congressional district Minnesota's 4th congressional district covers nearly all of Ramsey County, and part of Washington County. It includes all of St. Paul, and most of its suburbs. The district is solidly Democratic, with a CPVI of D+14. It is currently repres ...
,
Minnesota's 5th congressional district Minnesota's 5th congressional district is a geographically small urban and suburban congressional district in Minnesota. It covers eastern Hennepin County, including the entire city of Minneapolis, along with parts of Anoka and Ramsey countie ...
, and
Minnesota's 8th congressional district Minnesota's 8th congressional district covers the northeastern part of Minnesota. It is anchored by Duluth, the state's fourth-largest city. It also includes most of the Mesabi & Vermilion iron ranges, and the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in th ...
. , this is the last election in which Washington County, Olmsted County, and
Dakota County Dakota County may refer to: *Dakota County, Minnesota in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of east-central Minnesota *Dakota County, Nebraska Dakota County is a county in the U.S. state of Nebraska. As of th2020 United States Census the populati ...
voted for the Republican candidate. This was the first time since
1928 Events January * January – British bacteriologist Frederick Griffith reports the results of Griffith's experiment, indirectly proving the existence of DNA. * January 1 – Eastern Bloc emigration and defection: Boris Bazhanov, J ...
that a Republican had won a majority in
Anoka County Anoka County ( ) is the fourth-most-populous county in the U.S. state of Minnesota. As of the 2020 census, the population was 363,887. The county seat and namesake of the county is the city of Anoka, which is derived from the Dakota word ''an ...
.


Results


By county


Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin) *
Lincoln Lincoln most commonly refers to: * Abraham Lincoln (1809–1865), the sixteenth president of the United States * Lincoln, England, cathedral city and county town of Lincolnshire, England * Lincoln, Nebraska, the capital of Nebraska, U.S. * Lincol ...
(largest municipality:
Tyler Tyler may refer to: People and fictional characters * Tyler (name), an English name; with lists of people with the surname or given name * Tyler, the Creator (born 1991), American rap artist and producer * John Tyler, 10th president of the United ...
)


Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Beltrami (largest municipality:
Bemidji Bemidji ( ) is a city and the county seat of Beltrami County, in northern Minnesota, United States. The population was 14,574 at the 2020 census. According to 2021 census estimates, the city is estimated to have a population of 15,279, making it ...
) * Blue Earth (largest municipality:
Mankato Mankato ( ) is a city in Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Le Sueur counties in the state of Minnesota. The population was 44,488 according to the 2020 census, making it the 21st-largest city in Minnesota, and the 5th-largest outside of the Minnea ...
) * Chippewa (largest municipality:
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) *
Cook Cook or The Cook may refer to: Food preparation * Cooking, the preparation of food * Cook (domestic worker), a household staff member who prepares food * Cook (professional), an individual who prepares food for consumption in the food industry * ...
(largest municipality: Grand Marais) * Mahnomen (largest municipality: Mahnomen) * Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato) *
Norman Norman or Normans may refer to: Ethnic and cultural identity * The Normans, a people partly descended from Norse Vikings who settled in the territory of Normandy in France in the 10th and 11th centuries ** People or things connected with the Norm ...
(largest municipality:
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)


By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.


Electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8
congressional districts Congressional districts, also known as electoral districts and legislative districts, electorates, or wards in other nations, are divisions of a larger administrative region that represent the population of a region in the larger congressional bod ...
and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a
faithless elector In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or ...
. The electors of each state and the
District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...
met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Nine were pledged for Kerry/Edwards, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for Ewards/Edwards and thus became a
faithless elector In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or ...
. Minnesota's electors cast secret ballots, so unless one of the electors claims responsibility, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known. As a result of this incident, Minnesota Statutes were amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged. # Sonja Berg # Vi Grooms-Alban # Matthew Little # Michael Meuers # Tim O'Brien # Lil Ortendahl # Everett Pettiford # Jean Schiebel # Frank Simon # Chandler Harrison Stevens


See also

*
United States presidential elections in Minnesota Following is a table of United States presidential elections in Minnesota, ordered by year. Since its admission to statehood in 1858, Minnesota has participated in every U.S. presidential election. Winners of the state are in bold. The shading re ...


Notes


References

{{2004 U.S. presidential election
Minnesota Minnesota () is a state in the upper midwestern region of the United States. It is the 12th largest U.S. state in area and the 22nd most populous, with over 5.75 million residents. Minnesota is home to western prairies, now given over to ...
2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...
Presidential