United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for reelection to a second term. It was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various other state and local elections.

The candidate filing deadline was May 30, 2018; primaries were held on August 28, 2018, three days after the death of Senator John McCain. Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot but had withdrawn and endorsed Sinema. The election thus featured an all-female ballot. Write-in candidates included Democrat Sheila Bilyeu, Libertarian Party candidate Barry Hess, Republican Robert Kay, Jonathan Ringham of The Old Republic, as well as others. On the night of the election, McSally held a narrow lead of about one percent. Approximately a million mail-in and early ballots however remained to be counted; Sinema took the lead the next day, in a blue shift. The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018 and McSally conceded that day. With a margin of 2.34%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2018 U.S. Senate election cycle, behind only the Senate election in Florida.

Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988, when former Democratic Senator Dennis DeConcini last ran for and won reelection to his third and final term in this seat. This was also the first time a Democrat won statewide in Arizona since 2006, when Janet Napolitano was reelected as Governor. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl. Two years later, McSally attempted to defend her seat in the 2020 special election and serve the remainder of the term, but lost to Democrat Mark Kelly.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952 United States presidential election, 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996 United States presidential election, 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016 United States presidential election, 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees. The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in United States Senate election in Arizona, 1988, 1988.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018. Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former Arizona Senate, State Senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona, 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

* Joe Arpaio, former Maricopa County, Arizona, Maricopa County sheriff
* Martha McSally, U.S. representative
* Kelli Ward, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016
* Nicholas N. Glenn (write-in candidate)
* William Gonzales (write-in candidate)

Failed to file

* Craig Brittain, owner and co-founder of the revenge porn website IsAnybodyDown?
* Christian "C.J." Diegel, financial advisor
* Michelle Griffin
* Shawn Redd
* Nicholas Tutora, pharmacist

Withdrew

* Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. senator

Declined

* Jan Brewer, former governor
* Paul Gosar, U.S. representative
* Jeff DeWit, treasurer of Arizona (nominated as NASA chief financial officer)
* Andy Biggs, U.S. representative
* Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General, attorney general of Arizona
* Trent Franks, former U.S. representative
* Robert Graham (Arizona politician), Robert Graham, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party
* Christine Jones (businesswoman), Christine Jones, former GoDaddy executive, candidate for governor in Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014, 2014 and candidate for Arizona's 5th congressional district, AZ-05 in United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2016#District 5, 2016
* Bill Montgomery (Arizona politician), Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County, Arizona, Maricopa County Attorney
* Ben Quayle, former U.S. representative
* Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative and nominee for governor in Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002, 2002
* David Schweikert, U.S. representative
* John Shadegg, former U.S. representative

Endorsements

Polling

;with Jay Heiler

;with Jeff Flake

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

*Deedra Abboud, attorney
* Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. representative

Failed to file

* Bob Bishop, pilot
* Matt Jette
* David Ruben, physician
* Chris Russell, attorney
* Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge, former Iowa Iowa House of Representatives, state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

Withdrew

* Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher

Declined

* Mark Kelly, astronaut, scientist, U.S. Navy captain and husband of former U.S. representative Gabby Giffords
* Randall Friese, Arizona House of Representatives, state representative
* Ann Kirkpatrick, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016, 2016 (2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, running for AZ-2)
* Greg Stanton, List of mayors of Phoenix, Mayor of Phoenix, Arizona, Phoenix (2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, running for AZ-9)

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

* Adam Kokesh (write-in candidate), anti-war activist and U.S. presidential candidate in 2020

Removed

* Doug Marks, veteran and write-in candidate for Illinois's 14th congressional district, IL-14 in Daniel Kairis, 2010

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

*Angela Green (write-in candidate)

Removed

*Eve Reyes-Aguirre, activist

Results

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate
October 15, 2018

Predictions

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

;with Kelli Ward

;with Joe Arpaio

;with generic Republican and generic Democrat

;with Jeff Flake

;with Matt Salmon

Results

Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.

Sinema defeated McSally largely by winning in heavily populated Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, Arizona, Phoenix, which used to be a Republican stronghold but has since trended more Democratic in recent years. Sinema also won in heavily populated Pima County, home to Tucson, where she beat McSally with over 56% of the vote. Sinema also performed well in Coconino County, home of Flagstaff, Arizona, Flagstaff. McSally did well in many rural areas of the state. This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
* Maricopa County, Arizona, Maricopa (largest municipality: Phoenix, Arizona, Phoenix)

Voter demographics

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat, left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself was appointed after the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain. Initially, Kyl said that he would serve only until the new Congress was sworn in January 2019. Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019, marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making it the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the prior year; a first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected. Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress and a 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona, special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish what remains of McCain's term (which expires in 2023), in which McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly. McSally left office on December 2, 2020.

Notes

;Partisan clients

References

External links

* (constantly updated)

Candidates
at Vote Smart

Candidates
at Ballotpedia

Campaign finance
at Federal Election Commission, FEC

Campaign finance
at OpenSecrets

;Official campaign websites

Kyrsten Sinema (D) for Senate

Martha McSally (R) for Senate


Adam Kokesh (L) for Senate

Angela Green (G) for Senate

{{DEFAULTSORT:United States Senate Election In Arizona, 2018
United States Senate elections in Arizona, 2018
2018 United States Senate elections, Arizona
2018 Arizona elections, Senate