South Sudanese independence referendum, 2011

A referendum took place in Southern Sudan from 9 to 15 January 2011, on whether the region should remain a part of Sudan or become independent. The referendum was one of the consequences of the 2005 Naivasha Agreement between the Khartoum central government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M).

A simultaneous referendum was supposed to be held in Abyei on whether to become part of South Sudan but it was postponed due to conflict over demarcation and residency rights.

On 7 February 2011, the referendum commission published the final results, with a landslide majority of 98.83% voting in favour of independence. While the ballots were suspended in 10 of the 79 counties for exceeding 100% of the voter turnout, the number of votes was still well over the requirement of 60% turnout, and the majority vote for secession is not in question.

The predetermined date for the creation of an independent state was 9 July 2011.

Background

The prerequisites for the referendum included a census, which was used to define how wealth and political power will be apportioned between regions. The census was the basis of a voter registration process, which was also used for the national elections in 2010, which in turn set the stage for the referendum. The census was delayed three times. Problems included disagreements between the north and south over what they are obliged to do by the Naivasha Agreement, funding difficulties and an enormous logistical challenge. In the south, unmapped minefields from the war continue to make movement difficult, while up to 5,000,000 Sudanese are nomadic. Up to 2,000,000 internally displaced persons from the south remain in camps around Khartoum, in the centre of the country, whilst refugees remain in Uganda and Kenya. A further complication results from the conflict in Darfur to the west, where civilians who have fled attacks refuse to take part in census out of fear that the government would use the results against them. Darfuri rebel groups are unanimous in their denunciation of the planned census, while the Justice and Equality Movement group has threatened to attack any census-taker.

There were disagreements between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLA/M about what proportion of voters will have to be in favour of independence (the NCP wanted at least 75% support required), whether Southern Sudanese living in the north should be allowed to vote, and the post-referendum separation process (including the division of the national debt). Modest progress was made in early September 2010, but disagreements on fundamental points remain.

It is envisaged that "popular consultations" in South Kordofan, without a clear reference to referendums and/or independence, would raise concerns about the future of these regions.

According to the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (or CPA), in October 2009, the central government of Sudan and the South Sudanese government agreed that turnout would have to be at least 60% of 3,800,000 voters would be necessary to validate. In this case, a simple majority vote in favour of independence would result in secession for South Sudan;"Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required"
, '' Sudan Tribune'', 14 February 2009."Terms for Sudan referendum agreed"
, ''BBC News'', 16 October 2009. should the turnout be insufficient in the first referendum, a second one will be held within sixty days.

Campaign

Sudanese officials have said throughout campaigning that, regardless of their pro-unity or pro-separatist stance, the ultimate aim was a peaceful transition. Vice President Kiir acknowledged his administration had failed to deliver "the dividends of peace," and noted that a campaign to confiscate arms was a solution to maintaining stability.

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir said that the southern region had a right to choose to secede and that the referendum was helpful because unity "could not be forced by power." He also said he would respect the outcome of the vote and support the south. However, he also said that though secession was a right it may not resolve issues for the south: "The stability of the south is very important to us because any instability in the south will have an impact on the north. If there is a war in your neighbour's house, you will not be at peace. The south suffers from many problems. It's been at war since 1959. The south does not have the ability to provide for its citizens or create a state or authority."

Negotiations continue between the ruling parties in the north and south on potential post-referendum arrangements—looking at future issues such as citizenship, security, finance and wealth sharing. Minister of Petroleum Mr. Deng said he fears that an immediate budget cut for the north would ignite a war. "In order to avoid conflict, we could look to a phase-out arrangement whereby you provide the north some iluntil they get an alternative". The pipeline to export southern oil currently cuts through the north, and the south has not begun construction on a pipeline that would avoid that route. In an article published by ''The Washington Post'' on 21 September 2010, Deng noted that an interim agreement could help both north and south and result in a "win-win". The northern government said it would assume most of the country's $38,000,000,000 debt if secession was voted upon.

National campaigns were being held by both parties to address issues of potential clashes ahead of the referendum. President Al-Bashir wanted to reassure and assuage tension surrounding the issue of citizenship rights in the case of South Sudan secession. He said that even if southerners opted for secession, "the sentimental unity and social relations between north and south Sudan will remain standing." Al-Bashir vowed that the rights of southern citizens staying in the north after secession would be safeguarded, saying that his party would not allow anyone to infringe on the rights of southerners in the north, their properties, freedoms and residence regardless of citizenship.

The northern Justice and Peace Forum Party advocated separation of the country citing unity as a "bad forced marriage." Its chairman Al Taieb Mustafa said that the prospective support for the referendum would be "the real independence day for Sudan."

On 8 January, the mood in Juba, the southern capital, and the wider region was said to be jubilant with final pro-secession rallies celebrating independence in advance.

Egyptian and Libyan involvement

Early during the referendum process, an Egyptian proposal was made to have a confederation between the north and south of the country. However, President Omar al-Bashir said it was not being considered because the issue of the referendum was about "unity or separation. Our brothers in the south are refusing at the moment the proposal of confederation. If the separation was the result of the referendum, the two sides are going to negotiate over the future of relations between them."

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi later went to Sudan to try to assuage the conflict, though both men had previously called for the country to stay united. Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said the meeting sought to ensure the referendum could be held in a "climate of freedom, transparency, and credibility, reflecting the will of the sons of the south" and also that both the South and North could strengthen bonds.

Issues

Observers and key players feared violence ahead of the South Sudan referendum for a variety of reasons.

Abyei

Talks on resolving the status and of the eligibility criteria for voters in the disputed Abyei region broke down in October 2010, although both the central ruling NCP and southern SPLM said their respective teams "will meet again in Ethiopia toward the end of October to continue their discussions. The parties continue to commit themselves to their mutual goal of avoiding a return to conflict."

Didiri Mohammad Ahmad, an NCP official, said it was "not possible" to hold the referendum on the future of Abyei on time, and it could be delayed for months or be settled without a vote. He added that "We agreed that in the next talks we will try to look for other alternatives."

Sudan's Defense Minister, Abdel Rahim Mohammed Hussein, suggested the vote may have to be postponed. "According to the reality on the ground...border issues and Abyei must be resolved within the framework of one nation because doing so in the framework of two countries open the door for foreign interference. The referendum is not a goal but a tool to consolidate and promote security and stability. This DIis illegal and will not be recognized by the African Union or the other rganizationsbecause it would contradict the peace agreement and its procedures." Sudan's UN ambassador Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman told the Security Council that "It is evident that any attempt to conduct the plebiscite before achieving an acceptable settlement between the two parties n Abyeiwill mean only a return to war." The United States said it was working to avoid the "danger" that would follow the failure to hold the referendum.

The government Sudan asked the UN for the printing of ballots for the referendum as diplomats and the electoral commission warned of any further delay would miss the deadline to hold the election.

Abyei was not finalized for the vote.

Bishtina Mohammed El Salam of the Misseriya, who dominate the region along with the Dinka tribe, said he would not accept Abyei's seceding and joining the south even though the latter favored secession. "If the Dinka take this decision – to annex Abyei to the south – there will be an immediate war without any excuse. We think they should be reasonable and think about it. They should know that those who are pushing them to take that decision will not give them any back-up."

South Kurdufan and Blue Nile

The status of the Nuba Mountains region of South Kurdufan and Blue Nile is more complex as ethnic data is less clear.

In the Blue Nile, African ethnic groups such as the Berta, Anuak and Koma are dominant in the South. The Northern part, however, has an Arab majority, although the enclave of Ingessana in Tabi Hills is mostly Animist and was targeted by the northern forces during the civil war. The total population stands at 832,112 according to the Election Commission. During the 2010 provincial elections, the NCP won 29 out of the 48 seats, while the SPLM won 17 seats. In the National Assembly elections, the NCP won 6 out of the 10 seats, while the SPLM got 4. However, the SPLM accused the NCP of fraud. The separate gubernatorial election was won by the SPLM candidate, who polled almost 5% votes more than his NCP rival.

The Nuba Mountain was home to some 1,000,000 ethnic Nuba during 1980. A total of 99 different tribes used to live in this region. When the civil war broke out during the late 1980s, the Nuba aligned with the SPLA. The vast majority of Nuba were taken as prisoners of war and forcibly relocated to camps in North Kordofan and Khartoum. When the fighting ended, only about half the population survived. The rest either surrendered and moved north or were killed during the fighting. After the signing of the peace accord, some of the Nuba returned to the mountains, but the tribal elders refused to re-admit them into the tribes as they feared the abductees (mostly young men) were too Islamised. They were finally allowed back into the tribal fold after a 6-month re-education camp.

The SPLA controls four counties in Southern Kordofan: Lagawa, Kadugli, Rashad and Dilling. In 2005, the Arab dominated West Kordofan was merged in to South Kordofan

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