A self-defeating prophecy (''self-destroying'' or ''self-denying'' in some sources) is the complementary opposite of a
self-fulfilling prophecy; a prediction that prevents what it predicts from happening. This is also known as the prophet's dilemma.
A self-defeating prophecy can be the result of
rebellion to the prediction. If the audience of a prediction has an interest in seeing it falsified, and its fulfillment depends on their actions or inaction, their actions upon hearing it will make the prediction less plausible. If a prediction is made with this outcome specifically in mind, it is commonly referred to as
reverse psychology Reverse psychology is a technique involving the assertion of a belief or behavior that is opposite to the one desired, with the expectation that this approach will encourage the subject of the persuasion to do what is actually desired. This techniqu ...
or warning. Also, when working to make a premonition come true, one can inadvertently change the circumstances so much that the prophecy cannot come true.
It is important to distinguish a self-defeating prophecy from a self-fulfilling prophecy that predicts a negative outcome. If a prophecy of a negative outcome is made, and that negative outcome is achieved as a result of
positive feedback
Positive feedback (exacerbating feedback, self-reinforcing feedback) is a process that occurs in a feedback loop which exacerbates the effects of a small disturbance. That is, the effects of a perturbation on a system include an increase in th ...
, then it is a self-''fulfilling'' prophecy. For example, if a group of people decide they will not be able to achieve a goal and stop working towards the goal as a result, their prophecy was self-fulfilling. Likewise, if a prediction of a negative outcome is made, but the outcome is positive because of
negative feedback resulting from the rebellion, then that is a self-''defeating'' prophecy.
Examples
* If an economic crisis is predicted, then consumers, manufacturers and authorities will respond to avoid economic loss, breaking the chain of events that would lead to crisis.
* The biblical prophet
Jonah
Jonah or Jonas, ''Yōnā'', "dove"; gr, Ἰωνᾶς ''Iōnâs''; ar, يونس ' or '; Latin: ''Ionas'' Ben (Hebrew), son of Amittai, is a prophet in the Hebrew Bible and the Quran, from Gath-hepher of the northern Kingdom of Israel (Samaria ...
famously ran away and refused to deliver God's prophecy of
Nineveh's destruction, lest the inhabitants repent and cause God to forgive them and not destroy the city. Indeed, when Jonah eventually does deliver the prophecy, the people do mend their ways and cause the prophecy not to happen.
* The
Year 2000 problem
The year 2000 problem, also known as the Y2K problem, Y2K scare, millennium bug, Y2K bug, Y2K glitch, Y2K error, or simply Y2K refers to potential computer errors related to the formatting and storage of calendar data for dates in and after ...
has been cited as a self-defeating prophecy, in that fear of massive technology failures caused by computers' internal clocks "rolling over" encouraged the very changes needed to avoid those failures.
* Pre-announcing products in a way that discourages current sales (the
Osborne effect
The Osborne effect is a social phenomenon of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current, soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company's announcing a future product prematurely. It is an example of cannibalizati ...
) is also an example of a self-defeating prophecy.
* Predictions of environmental issues are sometimes corrected via legislation or behavior change and thus never happen.
* Epidemics with grim projections also encourage changes that can prevent those projections from coming true and in turn lead to people questioning the necessity of those changes because the projections did not come true.
See also
*
Self-refuting idea
A self-refuting idea or self-defeating idea is an idea or statement whose falsehood is a logical consequence of the act or situation of holding them to be true. Many ideas are called self-refuting by their detractors, and such accusations are ther ...
References
External links
*
{{unintended consequences
Attitude attribution
Causality
Cognitive biases
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