The reliability theory of aging is an attempt to apply the principles of
reliability theory
Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability describes the ability of a system or component to function under stated conditions for a specifi ...
to create a
mathematical model
A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the natural sciences (such as physics, ...
of
senescence
Senescence () or biological aging is the gradual deterioration of functional characteristics in living organisms. The word ''senescence'' can refer to either cellular senescence or to senescence of the whole organism. Organismal senescence inv ...
. The theory was published in Russian by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova as ''Biologiia prodolzhitelʹnosti zhizni'' in 1986, and in English translation as ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'' in 1991.
One of the models suggested in the book is based on an analogy with the reliability theory. The underlying
hypothesis
A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous obse ...
is based on the (previously suggested) premise that humans are born in a highly defective state. This is then made worse by environmental and mutational damage; exceptionally high
redundancy due to the extremely high number of low-reliable components (e.g..,
cells) allows the organism to survive for a while.
[
The theory suggests an explanation of two aging phenomena for higher organisms: the ]Gompertz law Gomperz, Gompertz, Gumpertz, Gumperz, Gomperts or Gompers is a surname. Notable people with the surname include:
*Aaron Solomon Gumperz (1723–1769), Jewish German scholar and physician
*Benjamin Gompertz (1779–1865), British actuary, and mathema ...
of exponential increase in mortality rates with age and the "late-life mortality plateau" (mortality deceleration compared to the Gompertz law at higher ages).[Gavrilov, Gavrilova (2001).]
The book criticizes a number of hypotheses known at the time, discusses drawbacks of the hypotheses put forth by the authors themselves, and concludes that regardless of the suggested mathematical models, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unknown.
See also
• DNA damage theory of aging
References
{{senescence
Systems theory
Reliability engineering
Failure
Survival analysis
Theories of biological ageing