Predictive intake modelling uses

mathematical model A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the natural sciences (such as physics, ...

ling strategies to estimate intake of food,

personal care Personal care or toiletries are consumer products used in personal hygiene, personal grooming or for beautification. Products Personal care includes products as diverse as cleansing pads, colognes, cotton swabs, cotton pads, deodorant, eye lin ...

products, and their

formulations Formulation is a term used in various senses in various applications, both the material and the abstract or formal. Its fundamental meaning is the putting together of components in appropriate relationships or structures, according to a formul ...

Definition

Predictive intake modelling seeks to estimate intake of products and/or their constituents which may enter the body through various routes such as ingestion,

inhalation Inhalation (or Inspiration) happens when air or other gases enter the lungs. Inhalation of air Inhalation of air, as part of the cycle of breathing, is a vital process for all human life. The process is autonomic (though there are exceptions ...

and

absorption Absorption may refer to: Chemistry and biology * Absorption (biology), digestion **Absorption (small intestine) *Absorption (chemistry), diffusion of particles of gas or liquid into liquid or solid materials *Absorption (skin), a route by which ...

. Predictive intake modelling can be applied to determine trends in food consumption and product use for the purpose of

extrapolation In mathematics, extrapolation is a type of estimation, beyond the original observation range, of the value of a variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable. It is similar to interpolation, which produces estimates between know ...

Applications

A predictive intake modelling approach is used to estimate voluntary food intake (VFI) by animals where their eating habits cannot be exactly measured. For humans, predictive intake modelling is used to make estimations of intake from foods, pesticides, cosmetics and inhalants as well as substances that can be contained in these like nutrients, functional ingredients, chemicals and contaminants. Predictive intake modelling has applications in

public health Public health is "the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life and promoting health through the organized efforts and informed choices of society, organizations, public and private, communities and individuals". Analyzing the det ...

risk assessment Broadly speaking, a risk assessment is the combined effort of: # identifying and analyzing potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis); and # making judgments "on the to ...

and

exposure assessment Exposure assessment is a branch of environmental science and occupational hygiene that focuses on the processes that take place at the interface between the environment containing the contaminant of interest and the organism being considered. ...

, where estimating intake or exposure to different substances can influence the decision making process.

Predictive intake modelling strategies

Regression approach

The

regression analysis In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one ...

approach is based on estimations through extrapolation or interpolation where there is a cause-and-effect relationship found by data fitting. These trends tend to be

phenomenological Phenomenology may refer to: Art * Phenomenology (architecture), based on the experience of building materials and their sensory properties Philosophy * Phenomenology (philosophy), a branch of philosophy which studies subjective experiences and a ...

Mechanistic modelling approach

A mechanistic modelling approach is one where a model is derived from basic theory. Examples of these include compartmental models which can be used to describe the circulation and concentration of airborne particles in a room or household for estimating intake of inhalants.

Population-based approach

A population-based approach tracks consumer intake from individual members of a sample population over time. Mathematical models are used to combine these habits and practices databases with separate databases on product or food formulation to estimate intake or exposure for the sample population. Moreover, survey weights may be applied to each subject in the study based on their age, demographic and location allowing the sample of subjects to correctly represent an entire population, and thus estimate intake for that population.

Probabilistic modelling approach

Probabilistic models are based on the

Monte Carlo Monte Carlo (; ; french: Monte-Carlo , or colloquially ''Monte-Carl'' ; lij, Munte Carlu ; ) is officially an administrative area of the Principality of Monaco, specifically the ward of Monte Carlo/Spélugues, where the Monte Carlo Casino is ...

method where distributions of data from various sources are randomly sampled from to calculate percentile statistics. Such probabilistic techniques typically utilise product or consumption survey data from a sample population combined with distributions of substances that may be found within those foods or products. For example, The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suggest that the estimation of intake of substances in food can be probabilistically conducted through food consumption surveys (

NHANES The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is a survey research program conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in the United States, and t ...

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from sample populations combined with distributions of substance concentration data to calculate the Estimated Daily Intake. The

European Food Safety Authority The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is the agency of the European Union (EU) that provides independent scientific advice and communicates on existing and emerging risks associated with the food chain. EFSA was established in February 2002, ...

(EFSA) funded the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) tool to estimate usual intake exposure distributions based on statistical models which utilise the EFSA Comprehensive Database, which contains detailed food consumption survey data. EFSA also funded Creme Global to develop a model and databases of European food consumption on which statistical models can be run to assess intake and exposure on a pan-European basis.C. O'Mahony, and G. Vilone, "Compiled European Food Consumption Database," Supporting Publications 2013:EN-415. 1 pp. Available online: www.efsa.europa.eu/publications ccessed: 03-March-2015/ref>

References

{{reflist Mathematical modeling