This is a

Mackerras pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House ...

for the 2016 Australian federal election.

History

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist

Malcolm Mackerras Malcolm Hugh Mackerras AO (born 26 August 1939) is an Australian psephologist and commentator and lecturer on Australian and American politics. Education and works Malcolm Mackerras was born at Turramurra in Sydney in August 1939. He is a brot ...

as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a

Westminster Westminster is an area of Central London, part of the wider City of Westminster. The area, which extends from the River Thames to Oxford Street, has many visitor attractions and historic landmarks, including the Palace of Westminster, B ...

style lower house legislature such as the

Australian House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Senate. Its composition and powers are established in Chapter I of the Constitution of Australia. The term of members o ...

, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a

preferential voting {{short description, Election systems Preferential voting or preference voting (PV) may refer to different election systems or groups of election systems: * Ranked voting methods, all election methods that involve ranking candidates in order of pr ...

system such as a

Condorcet method A Condorcet method (; ) is an election method that elects the candidate who wins a majority of the vote in every head-to-head election against each of the other candidates, that is, a candidate preferred by more voters than any others, whenever ...

or IRV. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the

government A government is the system or group of people governing an organized community, generally a state. In the case of its broad associative definition, government normally consists of legislature, executive, and judiciary. Government is ...

, the

opposition Opposition may refer to: Arts and media * ''Opposition'' (Altars EP), 2011 EP by Christian metalcore band Altars * The Opposition (band), a London post-punk band * '' The Opposition with Jordan Klepper'', a late-night television series on Com ...

and the

crossbench A crossbencher is an independent or minor party member of some legislatures, such as the British House of Lords and the Parliament of Australia. They take their name from the crossbenches, between and perpendicular to the government and oppositi ...

according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party or two-candidate basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent

Australian Electoral Commission The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is the independent federal agency in charge of organising, conducting and supervising federal Australian elections, by-elections and referendums. Responsibilities The AEC's main responsibility is to ...

using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'.""Division Classifications – House of Representatives - Seat Summary"
''Virtual Tally Room 2013'', Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 October 2013.

Pre-election pendulum

Based on the 2013 post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, this pendulum has been updated to include new notional margin estimates due to redistributions in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The net effect of the redistributions reduced the

Liberal Liberal or liberalism may refer to: Politics * a supporter of liberalism ** Liberalism by country * an adherent of a Liberal Party * Liberalism (international relations) * Sexually liberal feminism * Social liberalism Arts, entertainment and m ...

National National may refer to: Common uses * Nation or country ** Nationality – a ''national'' is a person who is subject to a nation, regardless of whether the person has full rights as a citizen Places in the United States * National, Maryland, c ...

Coalition from 90 to a notional 88 seats and increased

Labor Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth, the delivery of a baby * Labour (human activity), or work ** Manual labour, physical work ** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer ** Organized labour and the la ...

from 55 to a notional 57 seats.2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update)

Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian psephologist and commentator. He is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst. Early years and background Born in Warrington, Lancashire, in northern England, Gre ...

ABC 13 March 2016 Whilst every federal election after

1961 Events January * January 3 ** United States President Dwight D. Eisenhower announces that the United States has severed diplomatic and consular relations with Cuba (Cuba–United States relations are restored in 2015). ** Aero Flight 311 (K ...

has been won by those that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales, unusually nearly half of all marginal government seats are in New South Wales at this election of which nearly half are all in

Western Sydney Western may refer to: Places *Western, Nebraska, a village in the US *Western, New York, a town in the US * Western Creek, Tasmania, a locality in Australia *Western Junction, Tasmania, a locality in Australia *Western world, countries that i ...

and the other half all in rural and regional areas, and with no more than a few seats each in every other state. Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require Labor with 50.5 percent of the two-party vote from a 4.0-point

two-party A two-party system is a political party system in which two major political parties consistently dominate the political landscape. At any point in time, one of the two parties typically holds a majority in the legislature and is usually referr ...

swing or greater, while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require the Coalition with 50.2 percent of the two-party vote from a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater."Mackerras pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016" article based o
2016 election pendulum: Antony Green ABC
– O'Connor and Durack not included for Labor majority calculation but are included for Coalition loss of majority calculation. Fairfax in QLD is considered a Coalition seat for Coalition loss of majority calculation.

Notes

Though the seats of Dobell, Paterson and Barton were Liberal wins at the previous election, redistributions changed them in to notionally marginal Labor seats.

Pat Conroy Donald Patrick Conroy (October 26, 1945 – March 4, 2016) was an American author who wrote several acclaimed novels and memoirs; his books '' The Water is Wide'', ''The Lords of Discipline'', ''The Prince of Tides'' and '' The Great Santini'' w ...

is the current MP for the

Division of Charlton The Division of Charlton was an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1984 and is named for Matthew Charlton, who was Leader of the Australian Labor Party 1922–28. The division was locate ...

which is being renamed to the

Division of Hunter The Division of Hunter is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was proclaimed in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election. The division was named ...

at the next election.

References

{{2016 Australian federal election Pendulums for Australian federal elections