Potential superpowers
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A potential superpower is a
sovereign state A sovereign state is a State (polity), state that has the highest authority over a territory. It is commonly understood that Sovereignty#Sovereignty and independence, a sovereign state is independent. When referring to a specific polity, the ter ...
or other
polity A polity is a group of people with a collective identity, who are organized by some form of political Institutionalisation, institutionalized social relations, and have a capacity to mobilize resources. A polity can be any group of people org ...
that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a
superpower Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to Sphere of influence, exert influence and Power projection, project power on a global scale. This is done through the comb ...
; a sovereign state or
supranational union A supranational union is a type of international organization and political union that is empowered to directly exercise some of the powers and functions otherwise reserved to State (polity), states. A supranational organization involves a g ...
that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means. The
United States The United States of America (USA), also known as the United States (U.S.) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It is a federal republic of 50 U.S. state, states and a federal capital district, Washington, D.C. The 48 ...
is currently considered the world's foremost superpower, as it is the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus, with some accounts calling it the only one.
China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...
, the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational union, supranational political union, political and economic union of Member state of the European Union, member states that are Geography of the European Union, located primarily in Europe. The u ...
,
India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...
, and
Russia Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a country spanning Eastern Europe and North Asia. It is the list of countries and dependencies by area, largest country in the world, and extends across Time in Russia, eleven time zones, sharing Borders ...
have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century;
Japan Japan is an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean off the northeast coast of the Asia, Asian mainland, it is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea ...
was a former candidate in the 1980s.


China

The
People's Republic of China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...
has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population. According to former U.S. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken Antony John Blinken (born April 16, 1962) is an American lawyer and diplomat who served as the 71st United States secretary of state from 2021 to 2025. He previously served as Deputy National Security Advisor, deputy national security advisor ...
, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order". Great focus has been placed on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States. Examples of this have included the establishing and large-scale expansion in countries joining the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank and international financial institution that aims to collectively improve economic and social outcomes in Asia. It is the world's second largest multi-lateral d ...
in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the
Belt and Road Initiative The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI or B&R), known in China as the One Belt One Road and sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the government of China in 2013 to invest in more t ...
and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX. It has also been argued that the future is likely to be of growing competition between two highly dominant countries in the form of the United States and China while others begin to lag behind economically. Predictions have also been made of it overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s. Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "
AI superpower AI most frequently refers to artificial intelligence, which is intelligence demonstrated by machines. Ai, AI or A.I. may also refer to: Animals * Ai (chimpanzee), an individual experimental subject in Japan * Ai (sloth) or the pale-throated s ...
". In contrast to this however there have been some who question how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, and long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation, and also that while it continues to grow it has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have. A supposed lack of
soft power In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to co-option, co-opt rather than coerce (in contrast with hard power). It involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. Soft power is ...
is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower. There has been significant discussion around the ability for China to project power militarily. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian politics, political, economy, economic, international security and Defence (military), defence organization of ten member states. It was established in 2001 by the China, People's Republic ...
become the "
NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental organization, intergovernmental Transnationalism, transnational military alliance of 32 Member states of NATO, member s ...
of the East". It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region. Others have argued however that China still remains surrounded by potentially hostile nations and still lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.


European Union

The
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational union, supranational political union, political and economic union of Member state of the European Union, member states that are Geography of the European Union, located primarily in Europe. The u ...
(EU) has been called an emerging superpower or having already achieved that status, primarily to do with its economic power and political influence on the world stage. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy. Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still the matter of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant in the 21st century and accordingly so when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower. Others however have questioned this interpretation, instead arguing that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines the case that the EU is a potential superpower. The EU's lack of political integration has also come under conflicting views regarding its effect on superpower status. Some have argued that its more "low profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration of being a superpower rather than simply failing to meet them. Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States, and it has even been argued that the EU remains as little more than an extension of a Europe reliant or dominated by the United States. The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the
Brussels effect The Brussels effect is the process of European Union (EU) regulations spreading well beyond the EU's borders. Through the Brussels effect, regulated entities, especially corporations, end up complying with EU laws even outside the EU for a variet ...
, which suggests that
regulations Regulation is the management of complex systems according to a set of rules and trends. In systems theory, these types of rules exist in various fields of biology and society, but the term has slightly different meanings according to context. Fo ...
and standards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.


India

India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...
has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future. Some commentators have made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based on A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's book India 2020. In 2019, BJP politician Amit Shah claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule of
Narendra Modi Narendra Damodardas Modi (born 17 September 1950) is an Indian politician who has served as the Prime Minister of India, prime minister of India since 2014. Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014 and is the Member of Par ...
. On websites such as
Reddit Reddit ( ) is an American Proprietary software, proprietary social news news aggregator, aggregation and Internet forum, forum Social media, social media platform. Registered users (commonly referred to as "redditors") submit content to the ...
and
4chan 4chan is an anonymous English-language imageboard website. Launched by Christopher "moot" Poole in October 2003, the site hosts boards dedicated to a wide variety of topics, from video games and television to literature, cooking, weapons, mu ...
users mocked these predictions with posts depicting India miraculously transforming into a developed country between 31 December 2019 and 1 January 2020. Economists and researchers at
Harvard University Harvard University is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Founded in 1636 and named for its first benefactor, the History of the Puritans in North America, Puritan clergyma ...
have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world. Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39. In 2003
Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( ) is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company. Founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs is headquartered in Lower Manhattan in New York City, with regional headquarters in many internationa ...
predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050. In a 2024 interview with
The Independent ''The Independent'' is a British online newspaper. It was established in 1986 as a national morning printed paper. Nicknamed the ''Indy'', it began as a broadsheet and changed to tabloid format in 2003. The last printed edition was publis ...
, former UK PM
Tony Blair Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair (born 6 May 1953) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007 and Leader of the Labour Party (UK), Leader of the Labour Party from 1994 to 2007. He was Leader ...
predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China. While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018. It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".


Russia

Russia Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a country spanning Eastern Europe and North Asia. It is the list of countries and dependencies by area, largest country in the world, and extends across Time in Russia, eleven time zones, sharing Borders ...
, since its imperial times, has been considered both a
great power A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power ...
and a
regional power In international relations, regional power, since the late 20thcentury, has been used for a sovereign state that exercises significant power within its geographical region.Joachim Betz, Ian Taylor"The Rise of (New) Regional Powers in Asia, ...
. Throughout most of the
Soviet The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...
-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two
superpower Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to Sphere of influence, exert influence and Power projection, project power on a global scale. This is done through the comb ...
s. However, after the
dissolution of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union was formally dissolved as a sovereign state and subject of international law on 26 December 1991 by Declaration No. 142-N of the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. Declaration No. 142-Н of ...
, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status, while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower. In his 2005 publication entitled ''Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower'', Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC, UNC–Chapel Hill, or simply Carolina) is a public university, public research university in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States. Chartered in 1789, the university first began enrolli ...
, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom. Stephen Kinzer of ''
The Boston Globe ''The Boston Globe,'' also known locally as ''the Globe'', is an American daily newspaper founded and based in Boston, Massachusetts. The newspaper has won a total of 27 Pulitzer Prizes. ''The Boston Globe'' is the oldest and largest daily new ...
'' compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking
Ukraine Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the List of European countries by area, second-largest country in Europe after Russia, which Russia–Ukraine border, borders it to the east and northeast. Ukraine also borders Belarus to the nor ...
and
Crimea Crimea ( ) is a peninsula in Eastern Europe, on the northern coast of the Black Sea, almost entirely surrounded by the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov. The Isthmus of Perekop connects the peninsula to Kherson Oblast in mainland Ukrain ...
as examples. Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the ''
Los Angeles Times The ''Los Angeles Times'' is an American Newspaper#Daily, daily newspaper that began publishing in Los Angeles, California, in 1881. Based in the Greater Los Angeles city of El Segundo, California, El Segundo since 2018, it is the List of new ...
,'' contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable. Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power. In 2011, British historian and professor
Niall Ferguson Sir Niall Campbell Ferguson, ( ; born 18 April 1964)Biography
Niall Ferguson
also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance". Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates. Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the
Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist
Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American New Keynesian economics, New Keynesian economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the CUNY Graduate Center, Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He ...
to suggest Russia was little more than a "
Potemkin Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin-Tauricheski (A number of dates as late as 1742 have been found on record; the veracity of any one is unlikely to be proved. This is his "official" birth-date as given on his tombstone.) was a Russian mi ...
Superpower".


Comparative statistics of current candidates


Former candidates


Japan

In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that
Japan Japan is an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean off the northeast coast of the Asia, Asian mainland, it is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea ...
would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, growing
economic An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...
,
military A military, also known collectively as armed forces, is a heavily armed, highly organized force primarily intended for warfare. Militaries are typically authorized and maintained by a sovereign state, with their members identifiable by a d ...
, industrial,
technological Technology is the application of conceptual knowledge to achieve practical goals, especially in a reproducible way. The word ''technology'' can also mean the products resulting from such efforts, including both tangible tools such as ute ...
and
cultural Culture ( ) is a concept that encompasses the social behavior, institutions, and Social norm, norms found in human societies, as well as the knowledge, beliefs, arts, laws, Social norm, customs, capabilities, Attitude (psychology), attitudes ...
influence, large
gross domestic product Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the total market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time period by a country or countries. GDP is often used to measure the economic performanc ...
, and high economic growth at that time. Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpass that of the United States. However, this prediction failed to materialise following a stock market crash and the resulting "
Lost Decades The Lost Decades are a lengthy period of economic stagnation in Japan precipitated by the asset price bubble's collapse beginning in 1990. The singular term originally referred to the 1990s, but the 2000s (Lost 20 Years, ) and the 2010s (Lost ...
", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook, while its population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.


See also

*
American Century The American Century is a characterization of the period since the middle of the 20th century as being largely dominated by the United States in political, economic, technological, and cultural terms. It is comparable to the description of the p ...
*
ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, commonly abbreviated as ASEAN, is a regional grouping of 10 states in Southeast Asia "that aims to promote economic and security cooperation among its ten members." Together, its member states r ...
*
Asian Century The Asian Century is the projected 21st-century dominance of Asian politics and culture, assuming certain demographic and economic trends persist. The concept of Asian Century parallels the characterisation of the 19th century as Britain's Im ...
*
BRIC (economics term) BRIC is an acronym describing the foreign investment strategies grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term has been rendered as "the BRICs", "the BRIC countries", "the BRIC economies", and the "Big Four". It is a leading example of ...
*
BRICS BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising ten countriesBrazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The idea of a BRICS-like group can be traced back to Russian foreign ...
*
Emerging power ''Emerging'' is the title of the only album by the Phil Keaggy, Phil Keaggy Band, released in 1977 on NewSong Records. The album's release was delayed due to a shift in record pressing plant priorities following the death of Elvis Presley. The ...
* Energy superpower *
Eurasian Economic Union The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU)EAEU is the acronym used on thorganisation's website However, many media outlets use the acronym EEU. is an economic union of five post-Soviet states located in Eurasia. The EAEU has an integrated single ...
*
Great power A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power ...
* List of countries in Europe by military expenditures *
Mercosur The Southern Common Market (commonly known by abbreviation ''Mercosur'' in Spanish and ''Mercosul'' in Portuguese) is a South American trade bloc established by the Treaty of Asunción in 1991 and Protocol of Ouro Preto in 1994. Its full me ...
*
Post–Cold War era The –Cold War era is a period of history that follows the end of the Cold War, which represents history after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. This period saw many former Soviet republics become sovereign states, as well a ...
*
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP ) is a free trade agreement among the Asia-Pacific countries of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, S ...
* Second Cold War *
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia. Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, ...
* Superpower collapse


References


External links


Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge

China on the World Stage
from th
Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives

Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status
by The Times
China and India: The Power of Two
by Harvard Business Review
The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable
by The Atlantic
Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower
{{DEFAULTSORT:Potential Superpowers Emerging power 21st century Pot Military terminology