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The Percentages agreement
Percentages agreement
was a secret agreement between British prime minister Winston Churchill
Churchill
and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin
Stalin
during the Fourth Moscow Conference in October 1944. It gave the percentage division of control over Eastern European countries, dividing them into spheres of influence. Franklin Roosevelt
Franklin Roosevelt
was consulted tentatively and conceded to the agreement.[2] The agreement was officially made public by Churchill
Churchill
twelve years later in the final volume of his memoir of the Second World War. The US ambassador Averell Harriman, who was supposed to represent Roosevelt in these meetings, was excluded from this discussion.[3][4] British historian Andrew Roberts states:

the Second Moscow Conference was not able to resolve major issues in Eastern Europe, and when Churchill
Churchill
did complete his percentages deal with Stalin, it was not ratified by the Americans.[5]

Contents

1 The agreement 2 Aftermath 3 See also 4 References 5 Further reading 6 External links

The agreement[edit] Winston Churchill, not Stalin, proposed the agreement, under which the UK and USSR agreed to divide Europe into spheres of influence, with one country having "predominance" in one sphere, and the other country having "predominance" in another sphere.[4] According to Churchill's account of the incident, Churchill
Churchill
suggested that the Soviet Union should have 90 percent influence in Romania
Romania
and 75 percent in Bulgaria; the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
should have 90 percent in Greece; and they should have 50 percent each in Hungary
Hungary
and Yugoslavia. Churchill wrote it on a piece of paper which he pushed across to Stalin, who ticked it off and passed it back.[3][6][7][8][9] The result of these discussions was that the percentages of Soviet influence in Bulgaria and, more significantly, Hungary
Hungary
were amended to 80 percent. Churchill
Churchill
called it a "naughty document".[7] Some historians, including Gabriel Kolko and Geoffrey Roberts believe that the importance of the agreement is overrated.[10] Kolko writes :

There is little significance to the memorable and dramatic passage in Churchill's autobiography recalling how he and Stalin
Stalin
divided Eastern Europe ... Stalin's "tick," translated into real words, indicated nothing whatsoever. The very next day Churchill
Churchill
sent Stalin
Stalin
a draft of the discussion, and the Russian carefully struck out phrases implying the creation of spheres of influence, a fact Churchill
Churchill
excluded from his memoirs. [British Foreign Minister] Anthony Eden
Anthony Eden
assiduously avoided the term, and considered the understanding merely as a practical agreement on how problems would be worked out in each country, and the very next day he and [Soviet Foreign Minister] Vyacheslav Molotov
Vyacheslav Molotov
modified the percentages in a manner which Eden assumed was general rather than precise.[11]

Henry Butterfield Ryan writes, that "Eden and Molotov haggled over these quantities as though they were bargaining over a rug in a bazaar, with Molotov trying, eventually successfully, to trim Britain's figures."[3] Most historians consider the agreement to be deeply significant, however. In The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Norman Naimark writes that together with the Yalta and Potsdam agreements, "the notorious percentages agreement between Joseph Stalin
Stalin
and Winston Churchill...confirmed that Eastern Europe, initially at least, would lie within the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union." [12] In his acclaimed biography of Churchill, Roy Jenkins
Roy Jenkins
writes that the agreement "proposed Realpolitik spheres of influence in the Balkans. The [Foreign Office] record reported [Churchill] as saying that 'the Americans would be shocked if they saw how crudely he had put it.'" [13] Historian David Carlton similarly notes that "[With the October contract] a clear if informal deal had been done on the point that mattered most to Churchill: he had Stalin's consent to handle Greece as he saw fit." Anthony Eden
Anthony Eden
wrote that months before the meeting, he and Churchill
Churchill
had discussed the issue and "we felt entitled to ask for Soviet support for our policy [with regard to Greece] in return for the support we were giving to Soviet policy with regard to Romania." Carlton recounts that

[ Churchill
Churchill
told Franklin Roosevelt] on 31 May…that the proposed Anglo-Soviet arrangement applied only to war conditions and was not an attempt to carve up the Balkans. Roosevelt was unimpressed and on 11 June held that the result would be "the division of the Balkan region into spheres of influence despite the declared intention to limit the arrangement to military matters." Churchill
Churchill
then urged the President to consent to the arrangement being given a three-month trial. And on the 13th Roosevelt rather weakly gave way…This turned out to be a decision of great importance.[14]

Aftermath[edit] At Yalta, Roosevelt suggested that the issues raised in the percentages agreement should be decided by the new United Nations. Stalin
Stalin
was dismayed because he wanted a Soviet sphere of influence in East Europe.[15] According to Melvyn Leffler, Churchill
Churchill
"sought to renege" on the percentages agreement as the world war ended and Greece
Greece
was secured.[16] This was especially the case as Churchill
Churchill
and Roosevelt kept such severe discretion around the agreement that their successors in office were not aware of it.[17] Stalin, meanwhile, initially believed the secret agreement was more important than the public deal at Yalta, leading to his perception of betrayal and a growing urgency to secure friendly governments on the USSR's border.[18] In a 1956 interview with CL Sulzberger, Churchill
Churchill
said:

Stalin
Stalin
never broke his word to me. We agreed on the Balkans. I said he could have Romania
Romania
and Bulgaria, and he said we could have Greece…When we went in in 1944 Stalin
Stalin
didn't interfere.[19]

It has been claimed that a draft of the agreement, which was only made in 1944, was supposedly intercepted in 1943 and fell into the hands of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco's secret service. This was mentioned by General Jordana, in a speech he gave in April 1943 in Barcelona.[20]

Countries Soviet Percentages UK Percentages

 Bulgaria 75% → 80% 25% → 20%

 Greece 10% 90%

 Hungary 50% → 80% 50% → 20%

 Romania 90% 10%

 Yugoslavia 50% 50%

See also[edit]

Anglo-Soviet Treaty of 1942 Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran

References[edit]

^ The document is contained in Britain's Public Record Office, PREM 3/66/7 (169). ^ Borhi, László (2004). Hungary
Hungary
in the Cold War, 1945-1956: Between the United States and the Soviet Union. Central European University Press. p. 27. ISBN 9789639241800.  ^ a b c Ryan 1987, p. 137. ^ a b Holmes, Leslie (2009). Communism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press Inc. p. 25. ISBN 978-0-19-955154-5.  ^ Andrew Roberts (2009). Masters and Commanders: The Military Geniuses Who Led The West To Victory In World War II. p. 527.  ^ Resis 1978. ^ a b Rasor, Eugene L. Winston S. Churchill, 1874–1965: A Comprehensive Historiography and Annotated Bibliography. p. 269.  ^ Rose, Norman. Churchill: The Unruly Giant. p. 383.  ^ Cassimatis, Louis P. American Influence in Greece, 1917–1929. p. 240.  ^ Roberts 2006, p. 218. ^ Kolko 1990, p. 145. See also Tsakaloyannis 1986. ^ Melvyn P. Leffler and Odd Arne Westad, eds., The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Vol. 1: Origins (Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 175 ^ Roy Jenkins, Churchill: A Biography (Macmillan, 2001), p. 759 ^ David Carlton, Churchill
Churchill
and the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
(Manchester University Press, 2000) p. 114-116 ^ Allan Todd, History for the IB Diploma Paper 3: The Soviet Union
Soviet Union
and Post-Soviet Russia (Cambridge University Press, 2016), p.105 ^ Melvyn Leffler "Adherence to Agreements:Yalta and the Early Cold War" International Security, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Summer, 1986), pp. 88-123 ^ B.A. Coates, "Strategists and Rhetoricians" in A Companion to Harry S. Truman, edited by Daniel S. Margolies (Wiley, 2012) ^ Allan Todd, History for the IB Diploma Paper 3: The Soviet Union
Soviet Union
and Post-Soviet Russia (Cambridge University Press, 2016), p.105-111 ^ David Carlton, Churchill
Churchill
and the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
(Manchester University Press, 2000) p. 120-122 ^ Nicolas Baciu: L'Europe de l'Est trahie et vendue: les erreurs tragiques de Churchill
Churchill
et Roosevelt: les documents secrets accusent, Pensée universelle, 1984, p. 49.

Further reading[edit]

Kolko, Gabriel (1990) [1968]. The Politics of War: The World and United States Foreign Policy, 1943–1945. New York: Pantheon. ISBN 978-0-679-72757-6.  Resis, Albert (1978). "The Churchill- Stalin
Stalin
Secret 'Percentages' Agreement on the Balkans, Moscow, October 1944". American Historical Review. 83 (2): 368–387. JSTOR 1862322.  Roberts, Geoffrey (2006). Stalin's Wars: From World War to Cold War, 1939–1953. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-15040-7.  Ryan, Henry Butterfield (1987). The Vision of Anglo-America: The US–UK Alliance and the Emerging Cold War, 1943–1946. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-32928-6.  Siracusa, Joseph M. "The Meaning of TOLSTOY: Churchill, Stalin, And The Balkans Moscow, October 1944." Diplomatic History 3#4 (1979): 443-444. includes British minutes; online Siracusa, Joseph M. "The Night Stalin
Stalin
and Churchill
Churchill
Divided Europe: The View from Washington." Review of Politics 43#3 (1981): 381-409. online Tsakaloyannis, Panos (1986). "The Moscow Puzzle". Journal of Contemporary History. 21 (1): 37–55. doi:10.1177/002200948602100103. JSTOR 260471. 

External links[edit]

The division of Europe, according to Winston Churchill
Churchill
and Joseph Stalin
Stalin
(1944) (Scan of the napkin in question) Geoffrey Roberts, Beware Greek Gifts: The Churchill-Stalin «Percentages» Agreement of October 1944 Excerpt from the book STALIN

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