Paul Donovan (economist)
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Paul Donovan is a British
economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
and author. He is Global Chief Economist for the Swiss financial services firm
UBS Wealth Management UBS Group AG is a multinational Investment banking, investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. Co-headquartered in the cities of Zürich and Basel, it maintains a presence in all major financial centres ...
.


Education

Donovan studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at
St Anne's College, Oxford St Anne's College is a constituent college of the University of Oxford in England. It was founded in 1879 and gained full college status in 1959. Originally a women's college, it has admitted men since 1979. It has some 450 undergraduate and 200 ...
, graduating in 1993. He also holds an MSc in Financial Economics from the
University of London The University of London (UoL; abbreviated as Lond or more rarely Londin in post-nominals) is a federal public research university located in London, England, United Kingdom. The university was established by royal charter in 1836 as a degree ...
. Donovan is an
Honorary Fellow Honorary titles (professor, reader, lecturer) in academia may be conferred on persons in recognition of contributions by a non-employee or by an employee beyond regular duties. This practice primarily exists in the UK and Germany, as well as in m ...
of St Anne's College, and a member of the Vice Chancellor's Circle of Oxford University.


Career

In 1992 Donovan joined UBS Phillips and Drew, as the
investment banking Investment banking pertains to certain activities of a financial services company or a corporate division that consist in advisory-based financial transactions on behalf of individuals, corporations, and governments. Traditionally associated wit ...
arm of UBS was then known, as an intern in the Fixed Income economics department. In 1995 he moved to be global economist. His appointment as Global Chief Economist of UBS Wealth Management was announced in June 2016. He has been a managing director of UBS since 2004 and sits as a member of the Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He is a member of UBS Pride, the UBS Art Board, and the UBS Sustainable and Impact Investment Institute, and participates in the UBS Nobel Perspectives program. Donovan is also a member of the
World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental and lobbying organisation based in Cologny, canton of Geneva, Switzerland. It was founded on 24 January 1971 by German engineer and economist Klaus Schwab. The foundation, ...
's Chief Economist Community.


Economic views and notable research

Donovan has co-authored two books on
environmental economics Environmental economics is a sub-field of economics concerned with environmental issues. It has become a widely studied subject due to growing environmental concerns in the twenty-first century. Environmental economics "undertakes theoretical or ...
with UBS colleague and fellow St Anne's College
alumna Alumni (singular: alumnus (masculine) or alumna (feminine)) are former students of a school, college, or university who have either attended or graduated in some fashion from the institution. The feminine plural alumnae is sometimes used for grou ...
Julie Hudson. The book "From Red to Green" examined the concept of the environmental credit crunch, arguing that use of environmental resources could be considered to be an inter-temporal transfer of living standards in a similar manner to financial credit, and that the consequences of a credit crunch could usefully be applied to environmental issues. The subsequent book "Food policy and the environmental credit crunch" looked at the way in which
food supply Food security speaks to the availability of food in a country (or geography) and the ability of individuals within that country (geography) to access, afford, and source adequate foodstuffs. According to the United Nations' Committee on World ...
and consumption was dependent on
non-renewable resource A non-renewable resource (also called a finite resource) is a natural resource that cannot be readily replaced by natural means at a pace quick enough to keep up with consumption. An example is carbon-based fossil fuels. The original organic mat ...
s, and how this may be rectified so as to provide
sustainable food A sustainable food system is a type of food system that provides healthy food to people and creates sustainable environmental, economic and social systems that surround food. Sustainable food systems start with the development of sustainable agr ...
supply in the future. A central argument was the need to control waste with holistic policies, not looking at specific parts of the food distribution process in isolation. In 2015 Donovan published "The Truth About Inflation" arguing that
inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reductio ...
was a poorly understood concept in financial markets. In particular he focused on the issue of inflation inequality - the idea that aggregate inflation indices do not accurately portray the cost of living for certain groups in society. In particular, as
income inequality There are wide varieties of economic inequality, most notably income inequality measured using the distribution of income (the amount of money people are paid) and wealth inequality measured using the distribution of wealth (the amount of we ...
increases, Donovan contends that a plutocratic statistic like
consumer price inflation A consumer price index (CPI) is a price index, the price of a weighted average market basket of Goods, consumer goods and Service (economics), services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time. Ove ...
will increasingly misrepresent the cost of living for lower income groups in society. Donovan has criticised the idea of
helicopter money Helicopter money is a proposed unconventional monetary policy, sometimes suggested as an alternative to quantitative easing (QE) when the economy is in a liquidity trap (when interest rates near zero and the economy remains in recession). Althoug ...
arguing that it reduces policy flexibility, has dire consequences if not controlled, and that raising price inflation expectations may not be desirable if wage inflation expectations remain weak. Donovan was one of the collaborators on the Guy Fox Project's book "How the world really works, the economy", a guide to economics aimed at children of around 10 years of age. An animated cartoon covering the topics of the book was produced in 2021. Donovan is a self-described
political economist Political economy is the study of how economic systems (e.g. markets and national economies) and political systems (e.g. law, institutions, government) are linked. Widely studied phenomena within the discipline are systems such as labour mar ...
, and has been critical of the veneration of mathematical modelling in economics. He supports the idea of the relationship between policy and the economy as being in flux (the
Lucas critique The Lucas critique, named for American economist Robert Lucas's work on macroeconomic policymaking, argues that it is naive to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historic ...
). Donovan has written several pieces of research on the economic damage that arises from
prejudice Prejudice can be an affective feeling towards a person based on their perceived group membership. The word is often used to refer to a preconceived (usually unfavourable) evaluation or classification of another person based on that person's per ...
in a society, focusing on the impact on
productivity Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production proces ...
and labour markets. Donovan has argued that prejudice irrationally discards skilled workers, undermines existing workers' skills, and reduces flexibility in the workplace. Donovan has specifically addressed the economic consequences of prejudice around
same sex marriage Same-sex marriage, also known as gay marriage, is the marriage of two people of the same sex or gender. marriage between same-sex couples is legally performed and recognized in 33 countries, with the most recent being Mexico, constituting ...
, arguing that the act of denying groups in society access to an institution that grants social status should be considered to be prejudice, and that this undermines economic efficiency. In 2020 Donovan's book “Profit and Prejudice - the Luddites of the Fourth Industrial Revolution” was published, expanding his earlier work on prejudice. The book argues that the structural changes of the fourth industrial revolution are likely to increase prejudice, and that technology will both help and hinder the spread of prejudice. He argues that prejudice will be especially damaging to economies and companies during this period of structural change, as it is not technology but how technology is used that will determine economic success. This means employing the right person, in the right job, at the right time - and prejudice prevents that. In 2006 Donovan authored a detailed analysis of the
London 2012 Olympic games The 2012 Summer Olympics (officially the Games of the XXX Olympiad and also known as London 2012) was an international multi-sport event held from 27 July to 12 August 2012 in London, England, United Kingdom. The first event, the ...
, in his role as economic adviser to the East London Business Alliance (ELBA). In this research, Donovan argued that the macro economic benefits of the games could amount to between £5.9bn and £7.8bn of long term gains for the London Boroughs of Hackney,
Newham The London Borough of Newham is a London borough created in 1965 by the London Government Act 1963. It covers an area previously administered by the Essex county boroughs of West Ham and East Ham, authorities that were both abolished by the s ...
and
Tower Hamlets The London Borough of Tower Hamlets is a London borough covering much of the traditional East End. It was formed in 1965 from the merger of the former metropolitan boroughs of Stepney, Poplar, and Bethnal Green. 'Tower Hamlets' was originally ...
. While engaged in a discussion in June 2019 concerning Chinese consumer prices, Donovan commented that the
swine influenza Swine influenza is an infection caused by any of several types of swine influenza viruses. Swine influenza virus (SIV) or swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV) refers to any strain of the influenza family of viruses that is endemic in pigs. As o ...
— which was causing the cost of pork to rise – mattered to "Chinese pigs and those who ate them". Donovan later apologized for his remarks before taking a leave of absence from UBS, saying "I made a mistake and I unwittingly used hugely culturally insensitive language." Patrick Winters and Benjamin Robertson of
Bloomberg Bloomberg may refer to: People * Daniel J. Bloomberg (1905–1984), audio engineer * Georgina Bloomberg (born 1983), professional equestrian * Michael Bloomberg (born 1942), American businessman and founder of Bloomberg L.P.; politician and ma ...
reported that "local rivals of UBS, which have been trying to take bigger piece of a business dominated by the established Western wealth managers, were quick to condemn Donovan's comments."


Other interests

In 2003 Donovan co-founded the
Peter Culverhouse Memorial Trust {{short description, Brtitish medical charity thumb Supporters attending the 2006 PCMT Thames River Barge cruise, raising funds for the PCMT The Peter Culverhouse Memorial Trust (PCMT) is a charitable trust in the United Kingdom. It was establish ...
, a charity funding long term cancer care and research into low grade
glioma A glioma is a type of tumor that starts in the glial cells of the brain or the spine. Gliomas comprise about 30 percent of all brain tumors and central nervous system tumours, and 80 percent of all malignant brain tumours. Signs and symptoms ...
. He sits on the investment committee, and development board of St Anne's College, Oxford and has worked with
the Bridge Academy The Bridge Academy is a coeducational secondary school and sixth form with academy status, located in the Haggerston area of the London Borough of Hackney in England. The Bridge Academy opened in 2007 in new buildings sited along the banks of R ...
school in Hackney. Donovan is a member of the Research Advisory Board of the charity Open For Business, which promotes sexuality equality with economic arguments. Donovan is a Commissioner on the
Institute of Directors The Institute of Directors (IoD) is a British professional organisation for company directors, senior business leaders and entrepreneurs. It is the UK's longest running organisation for professional leaders, having been founded in 1903 and incor ...
Shinkwin Commission, promoting diversity in business. Donovan was named one of the top ten "Inspirational Leaders" by the
British LGBT Awards The British LGBT Awards are a British award show that aim to recognise individuals and organizations that display "outstanding" commitment to the LGBT community. The awards were founded in 2014 by Sarah Garrett MBE. LGBT celebrities and straight ...
in 2021. Donovan describes himself as a keen skier and an amateur heavyweight boxer.


References


External links


Paul Donovan
at ubs.com

* {{DEFAULTSORT:Donovan, Paul Living people UBS people 1972 births Alumni of St Anne's College, Oxford Macroeconomists British economists