Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is an approach to bottom-up complex systems

analysis Analysis ( : analyses) is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (3 ...

that was developed to

model A model is an informative representation of an object, person or system. The term originally denoted the plans of a building in late 16th-century English, and derived via French and Italian ultimately from Latin ''modulus'', a measure. Models c ...

complex ecological and agent-based systems. A goal of POM is to make ecological modeling more rigorous and comprehensive.Grimm, V.; Railsback S.F. (2005), ''Individual-based Modeling and Ecology'',

Princeton University Press Princeton University Press is an independent publisher with close connections to Princeton University. Its mission is to disseminate scholarship within academia and society at large. The press was founded by Whitney Darrow, with the financia ...

. A traditional ecosystem model attempts to approximate the real system as closely as possible. POM proponents posit that an ecosystem is so information-rich that an ecosystem model will inevitably either leave out relevant information or become over-parameterized and lose predictive power.Grimm, V.; Revilla, E.; Berger, U.; Jeltsch, F.; Mooij, W.M.; Railsback, S.F.; Thulke, H.H.; Weiner, J. Wiegand, T.; DeAngelis D.L. (2005), "Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology", ''

Science Science is a systematic endeavor that Scientific method, builds and organizes knowledge in the form of Testability, testable explanations and predictions about the universe. Science may be as old as the human species, and some of the earli ...

'', 310: 987-991 Through a focus on only the relevant patterns in the real system, POM offers a meaningful alternative to the traditional approach. An attempt to mimic the

scientific method The scientific method is an empirical method for acquiring knowledge that has characterized the development of science since at least the 17th century (with notable practitioners in previous centuries; see the article history of scientific ...

, POM requires the researcher to begin with a pattern found in the real system, posit hypotheses to explain the pattern, and then develop predictions that can be tested. A model used to determine the original pattern may not be used to test the researcher's predictions. Through this focus on the pattern, the model can be constructed to include only information relevant to the question at hand.Grimm, V.; Frank, K.; Jeltsch, F.; Brandl, R.; Uchmariski, J.; Wissel C. (1996), "Pattern-oriented modeling in population ecology", ''The Science of the Total Environment'', 183: 151-166. POM is also characterized by an effort to identify the appropriate temporal and

spatial scale Spatial scale is a specific application of the term scale for describing or categorizing (e.g. into orders of magnitude) the size of a space (hence ''spatial''), or the extent of it at which a phenomenon or process occurs. For instance, in phy ...

at which to study a pattern, and to avoid the assumption that a single process might explain a pattern at multiple temporal or spatial scales. It does, however, offer the opportunity to look explicitly at how processes at multiple scales might be driving a particular pattern. A look at the trade-offs between model complexity and payoff can be considered in the framework of the Medawar zone. The model is considered too simple if it addresses a single problem (e.g., the explanation behind a single pattern), whereas it will be considered too complex if it incorporates all the available biological data. The Medawar zone, where the payoff in what is learned is greatest, is at an intermediate level of model complexity.

Usage

Pattern-oriented modeling has been used to test

a priori ("from the earlier") and ("from the later") are Latin phrases used in philosophy to distinguish types of knowledge, justification, or argument by their reliance on empirical evidence or experience. knowledge is independent from current ...

hypotheses on how herdsman decide which farmers to contract with when grazing their cattle. Herdsman behavior followed the pattern predicted by a 'friend' rather than 'cost' priority hypothesis.

References

{{refbegin Complex systems theory