''Papabile'' (, also , ; ; or "able to be pope") is an unofficial

Italian Italian(s) may refer to: * Anything of, from, or related to the people of Italy over the centuries ** Italians, an ethnic group or simply a citizen of the Italian Republic or Italian Kingdom ** Italian language, a Romance language *** Regional Ita ...

term first coined by

Vaticanologist Vaticanology is a term coined in the 20th century to describe the field of journalism and research studying and reporting about how the Holy See and the Roman Catholic Church operate. It is named after the Vatican City, the Holy See's sovereign ...

s and now used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man, in practice always a cardinal, who is thought a likely or possible candidate to be

elected Elected may refer to: * "Elected" (song), by Alice Cooper, 1973 * ''Elected'' (EP), by Ayreon, 2008 *The Elected, an American indie rock band See also *Election An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population ...

pope The pope ( la, papa, from el, πάππας, translit=pappas, 'father'), also known as supreme pontiff ( or ), Roman pontiff () or sovereign pontiff, is the bishop of Rome (or historically the patriarch of Rome), head of the worldwide Cathol ...

. In some cases the cardinals will choose a ''papabile'' candidate. Among the ''papabili'' cardinals who have been elected pope are

Eugenio Pacelli Pope Pius XII ( it, Pio XII), born Eugenio Maria Giuseppe Giovanni Pacelli (; 2 March 18769 October 1958), was head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 2 March 1939 until his death in October 1958. Before his e ...

(Pius XII),

Giovanni Battista Montini Pope Paul VI ( la, Paulus VI; it, Paolo VI; born Giovanni Battista Enrico Antonio Maria Montini, ; 26 September 18976 August 1978) was head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 21 June 1963 to his death in Augus ...

(Paul VI), and

Joseph Ratzinger Pope Benedict XVI ( la, Benedictus XVI; it, Benedetto XVI; german: link=no, Benedikt XVI.; born Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger, , on 16 April 1927) is a retired prelate of the Catholic church who served as the head of the Church and the soverei ...

(Benedict XVI). However, at times the College of Cardinals elects a man who was not considered ''papabile'' by most Vatican watchers. In recent years those who were elected pope though not considered ''papabile'' include

John XXIII Pope John XXIII ( la, Ioannes XXIII; it, Giovanni XXIII; born Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli, ; 25 November 18813 June 1963) was head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 28 October 1958 until his death in June 19 ...

John Paul I Pope John Paul I ( la, Ioannes Paulus I}; it, Giovanni Paolo I; born Albino Luciani ; 17 October 1912 – 28 September 1978) was head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City from 26 August 1978 to his death 33 days later. Hi ...

John Paul II Pope John Paul II ( la, Ioannes Paulus II; it, Giovanni Paolo II; pl, Jan Paweł II; born Karol Józef Wojtyła ; 18 May 19202 April 2005) was the head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 1978 until his ...

. There is a saying among Vaticanologists: "He who enters the

conclave A papal conclave is a gathering of the College of Cardinals convened to elect a bishop of Rome, also known as the pope. Catholics consider the pope to be the apostolic successor of Saint Peter and the earthly head of the Catholic Church. Co ...

as pope, leaves it as a cardinal." This is a popular proverb in Italy as well, indicating one should never be too sure of oneself. The list of ''papabili'' changes as cardinals age. For instance,

Carlo Maria Martini Carlo Maria Martini (15 February 1927 – 31 August 2012) was an Italian Jesuit, cardinal of the Catholic Church and a Biblical scholar. He was Archbishop of Milan from 1980 to 2004 and was elevated to the cardinalate in 1983. A towering ...

was thought to be ''papabile'' until he retired from his

see See or SEE may refer to: * Sight - seeing Arts, entertainment, and media * Music: ** ''See'' (album), studio album by rock band The Rascals *** "See", song by The Rascals, on the album ''See'' ** "See" (Tycho song), song by Tycho * Television * ...

upon reaching 75 years of age. The term ''papabile'' is at least as old as the 15th century, since it is found in the ''

Catholicon Anglicum The ''Catholicon Anglicum'' is an English-to-Latin bilingual dictionary compiled in the late 15th century. History Writing and publishing The ''Catholicon Anglicum'' was written in 1483. Its author was anonymous at the time of its writing ...

''. In

, the word ''papabile'' is also used in non-Church contexts referring to

short list A short list or shortlist is a list of candidates for a job, prize, award, political position, etc., that has been reduced from a longer list of candidates (sometimes via intermediate lists known as "long lists"). The length of short lists varie ...

candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.

''Papabili'' elected pope

* Francesco Saverio Castiglioni (elected as Pius VIII in

1829 Events January–March * January 19 – August Klingemann's adaptation of Johann Wolfgang von Goethe's '' Faust'' premieres in Braunschweig. * February 27 – Battle of Tarqui: Troops of Gran Colombia and Peru battle to a draw. * Marc ...

) * Gioachino Pecci (elected as Leo XIII in

1878 Events January–March * January 5 – Russo-Turkish War – Battle of Shipka Pass IV: Russian and Bulgarian forces defeat the Ottoman Empire. * January 9 – Umberto I becomes King of Italy. * January 17 – Bat ...

) * Giacomo della Chiesa (elected as Benedict XV in

1914 This year saw the beginning of what became known as World War I, after Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the Austrian throne was Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, assassinated by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip. It als ...

) *

(elected as Pius XII in 1939) *

(elected as Paul VI in

1963 Events January * January 1 – Bogle–Chandler case: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation scientist Dr. Gilbert Bogle and Mrs. Margaret Chandler are found dead (presumed poisoned), in bushland near the Lane Co ...

)Conclave A.D. 1963 - Election of Pope Paul VI
YouTube video. Accessed 19 October 2013 *

(elected as Benedict XVI in 2005) *

Jorge Mario Bergoglio Pope Francis ( la, Franciscus; it, Francesco; es, link=, Francisco; born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 17 December 1936) is the head of the Catholic Church. He has been the bishop of Rome and sovereign of the Vatican City State since 13 March 2013 ...

(elected as Francis in

2013 File:2013 Events Collage V2.png, From left, clockwise: Edward Snowden becomes internationally famous for leaking classified NSA wiretapping information; Typhoon Haiyan kills over 6,000 in the Philippines and Southeast Asia; The Dhaka garment fa ...

)"Choose your own pope – with our interactive Pontifficator"
''

The Guardian ''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'', and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers ''The Observer'' and ''The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardian'' is part of the Gu ...

''. 12 March 2013. Contains descriptions of all 115 cardinal electors, 13 of whom are marked as papabili.Huffington Post Papabile 2013: Top Contenders To Be Next Pope As We Enter Conclave
March 10, 2013. Retrieved 15 March 2013.

''Papabili'' not elected

Being seen as ''papabile'', however, is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.) *

Giuseppe Siri Giuseppe Siri (20 May 1906 – 2 May 1989) was an Italian cardinal of the Catholic Church who served as Archbishop of Genoa from 1946 to 1987, and was elevated to the rank of cardinal in 1953. He was a protege of Pope Pius XII. He was considered ...

was widely expected to be elected pope in the

1958 Events January * January 1 – The European Economic Community (EEC) comes into being. * January 3 – The West Indies Federation is formed. * January 4 ** Edmund Hillary's Commonwealth Trans-Antarctic Expedition completes the third ...

and

conclaves and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. On the first of these occasions, Angelo Roncalli, an utterly unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII. *

Giovanni Benelli Giovanni Benelli (12 May 1921 – 26 October 1982) was an Italian Cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church. He served as Archbishop of Florence from 1977 until his death. He was made a cardinal in 1977. Biography Early life and ordination Giovann ...

was widely expected to be elected pope in both the

August August is the eighth month of the year in the Julian and Gregorian calendars, and the fifth of seven months to have a length of 31 days. Its zodiac sign is Leo and was originally named ''Sextilis'' in Latin because it was the 6th month in ...

and October 1978 conclaves. In fact he was defeated in both (narrowly the second time). In August, a candidate few saw as ''papabile'', Albino Luciani, was elected and became Pope John Paul I–with the support of Benelli himself. In October, another such candidate,

Karol Wojtyła Pope John Paul II ( la, Ioannes Paulus II; it, Giovanni Paolo II; pl, Jan Paweł II; born Karol Józef Wojtyła ; 18 May 19202 April 2005) was the head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 1978 until his ...

, was elected as John Paul II. *

Rafael Merry del Val Rafael Merry del Val y Zulueta, (10 October 1865 – 26 February 1930) was a Spanish Roman Catholic cardinal. Before becoming a cardinal, he served as the secretary of the papal conclave of 1903 that elected Pope Pius X, who is said to have ac ...

was a widely considered candidate during the conclaves of 1914 and 1922 which eventually elected

Benedict XV Pope Benedict XV (Ecclesiastical Latin, Latin: ''Benedictus XV''; it, Benedetto XV), born Giacomo Paolo Giovanni Battista della Chiesa, name=, group= (; 21 November 185422 January 1922), was head of the Catholic Church from 1914 until his deat ...

and

Pius XI Pope Pius XI ( it, Pio XI), born Ambrogio Damiano Achille Ratti (; 31 May 1857 – 10 February 1939), was head of the Catholic Church from 6 February 1922 to his death in February 1939. He was the first sovereign of Vatican City f ...

respectively, although he never garnered enough votes to be in serious contention. * Bartolomeo Pacca – experienced diplomat under

Pius VII Pope Pius VII ( it, Pio VII; born Barnaba Niccolò Maria Luigi Chiaramonti; 14 August 1742 – 20 August 1823), was head of the Catholic Church and ruler of the Papal States from 14 March 1800 to his death in August 1823. Chiaramonti was also a m ...

, he was a candidate in 1823 and favored to win in 1829 but was vetoed by France. Cardinal Castiglioni was elected as Pius VIII. *

Emmanuele de Gregorio Emmanuele de Gregorio (18 December 1758 – 7 November 1839) was an Italian cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church and son of Leopoldo de Gregorio, Marquis of Esquilache. Biography De Gregorio was born at sea while his mother was travelling t ...

- expected to succeed Leo XII and Pius VIII, but never did. *

Mariano Rampolla Mariano Rampolla del Tindaro (17 August 1843 – 16 December 1913) was an Italian Cardinal in the Roman Catholic Church, and the last man to have his candidacy for papal election vetoed through ''jus exclusivae'' by a Catholic monarch. Early li ...

–

Leo XIII Pope Leo XIII ( it, Leone XIII; born Vincenzo Gioacchino Raffaele Luigi Pecci; 2 March 1810 – 20 July 1903) was the head of the Catholic Church from 20 February 1878 to his death in July 1903. Living until the age of 93, he was the second-ol ...

's Secretary of State. He was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave only to be vetoed by Kraków Cardinal Jan Puzyna de Kosielsko on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor

Franz Joseph I Franz Joseph I or Francis Joseph I (german: Franz Joseph Karl, hu, Ferenc József Károly, 18 August 1830 – 21 November 1916) was Emperor of Austria, King of Hungary, and the other states of the Habsburg monarchy from 2 December 1848 until his ...

. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Sarto was elected and became

Pius X Pope Pius X ( it, Pio X; born Giuseppe Melchiorre Sarto; 2 June 1835 – 20 August 1914) was head of the Catholic Church from 4 August 1903 to his death in August 1914. Pius X is known for vigorously opposing modernist interpretations of ...

. One of Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of states to veto. *

– Jesuit, biblical exegete, Archbishop of Milan from 1980 to 2002. Considered to be the most likely successor to John Paul II for much of the 1980s and 1990s but was already suffering from Parkinson's disease by the time the 2005 papal conclave was convened. *

Francis Arinze Francis Arinze (born 1 November 1932) is a Nigerian cardinal of the Catholic Church. He was Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments from 2002 to 2008 and before that led the Secretariat for Non-Christ ...

– speculated by some media reports as a highly favoured successor to John Paul II but did not gain a substantial number of votes in the 2005 papal conclave.

''Papabili'' at the 2013 conclave

The following cardinals, as noted in the cited references, were also considered ''papabili'' at the 2013 conclave, which elected Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who took the name Francis. * Angelo Bagnasco, Archbishop of

Genoa Genoa ( ; it, Genova ; lij, Zêna ). is the capital of the Italian region of Liguria and the sixth-largest city in Italy. In 2015, 594,733 people lived within the city's administrative limits. As of the 2011 Italian census, the Province of ...

"Choose your own pope – with our interactive Pontifficator"
''

''. 12 March 2013. Contains descriptions of all 115 cardinal electors, 13 of whom are marked as papabili. *

Timothy M. Dolan Timothy Michael Dolan (born February 6, 1950) is an American cardinal of the Catholic Church. He is the tenth and current Archbishop of New York, having been appointed by Pope Benedict XVI in 2009. Dolan served as the president of the United S ...

, Archbishop of New York *

Péter Erdő Péter Erdő ( hu, Erdő Péter, ; born 25 June 1952) is a Hungarian Cardinal of the Latin Rite of the Catholic Church, who has been the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and Primate of Hungary since 2003. He was president of the Council of t ...

, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest *

Seán Patrick O'Malley Seán Patrick O'Malley (born June 29, 1944) is an American cardinal of the Catholic Church serving as the archbishop of Boston. He is a member of the Order of Friars Minor Capuchin and was elevated to the rank of cardinal in 2006. Since its ...

, Archbishop of

Boston Boston (), officially the City of Boston, is the state capital and most populous city of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, as well as the cultural and financial center of the New England region of the United States. It is the 24th- mo ...

Marc Ouellet Marc Armand Ouellet (born 8 June 1944) is a Canadian prelate of the Catholic Church. He has been the prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America since his appointment by Pope Benedict XVI ...

, Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops *

Gianfranco Ravasi Gianfranco Ravasi (born 18 October 1942) is an Italian prelate of the Catholic Church and a biblical scholar. A cardinal since 2010, he was President of the Pontifical Council for Culture from 2007 to 2022. He headed Milan's Ambrosian Librar ...

, President of the

Pontifical Council for Culture The Pontifical Council for Culture ( la, Pontificium Consilium de Cultura) was a dicastery of the Roman Curia charged with fostering the relationship of the Catholic Church with different cultures. It was erected by Pope John Paul II on 20 May ...

Leonardo Sandri Leonardo Sandri (born 18 November 1943) is an Argentine prelate of the Catholic Church who has been a cardinal since November 2007 and vice dean of the College of Cardinals since January 2020. He was prefect of the Congregation for the Eastern Chu ...

, Prefect of the

Congregation for the Oriental Churches The Dicastery for the Eastern Churches (also called Dicastery for the Oriental Churches), previously named Congregation for the Oriental Churches or Congregation for the Eastern Churches ( la, Congregatio pro Ecclesiis Orientalibus), is a dicaste ...

Odilo Pedro Scherer Odilo Pedro Scherer (; born 21 September 1949) is a Brazilian cardinal of the Catholic Church, who has been the Archbishop of São Paulo since March 2007. He was made a cardinal in November 2007. In the international media, he was mentioned as ...

, Archbishop of

São Paulo São Paulo (, ; Portuguese for ' Saint Paul') is the most populous city in Brazil, and is the capital of the state of São Paulo, the most populous and wealthiest Brazilian state, located in the country's Southeast Region. Listed by the Ga ...

Christoph Schönborn Christoph Maria Michael Hugo Damian Peter Adalbert Graf von Schönborn, O.P. (; born 22 January 1945) is a Bohemian-born Austrian Dominican friar and theologian, who is a cardinal of the Catholic Church. He serves as the Archbishop of Vienna and ...

, Archbishop of

Vienna en, Viennese , iso_code = AT-9 , registration_plate = W , postal_code_type = Postal code , postal_code = , timezone = CET , utc_offset = +1 , timezone_DST ...

Angelo Scola Angelo Scola (; born 7 November 1941) is an Italian Cardinal of the Catholic Church, philosopher and theologian. He was Archbishop of Milan from 2011 to 2017. He had served as Patriarch of Venice from 2002 to 2011. He has been a cardinal since 20 ...

, Archbishop of

Milan Milan ( , , Lombard: ; it, Milano ) is a city in northern Italy, capital of Lombardy, and the second-most populous city proper in Italy after Rome. The city proper has a population of about 1.4 million, while its metropolitan city h ...

Luis Antonio Tagle Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle ( ; ; born June 21, 1957) is a Filipino prelate of the Catholic Church currently serving as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of Evangelization of Dicastery for Evangelization (formerly the Congregation for the Evangel ...

, Archbishop of

Manila Manila ( , ; fil, Maynila, ), officially the City of Manila ( fil, Lungsod ng Maynila, ), is the capital of the Philippines, and its second-most populous city. It is highly urbanized and, as of 2019, was the world's most densely populate ...

Peter Turkson Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson is a Ghanaian prelate and cardinal of the Catholic Church who has served as chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences since 2022. He was president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace from 2009 to ...

, President of the

Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace The Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace (''Justitia et Pax'') was a pontifical council of the Roman Curia dedicated to "action-oriented studies" for the international promotion of justice, peace, and human rights from the perspective of the ...

Papabili in future conclave - ''The Next Pope'' (2020)

Edward Pentin, Rome correspondent for the ''

National Catholic Register The ''National Catholic Register'' is a Catholic newspaper in the United States. It was founded on November 8, 1927, by Matthew J. Smith as the national edition of the '' Denver Catholic Register''. The ''Registers current owner is the Ete ...

'', released a book in August 2020 entitled ''The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates'', listing 19 Cardinals he considered ''papabili'' for a future conclave after

Pope Francis Pope Francis ( la, Franciscus; it, Francesco; es, link=, Francisco; born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 17 December 1936) is the head of the Catholic Church. He has been the bishop of Rome and sovereign of the Vatican City State since 13 March 2013. ...

. Three of the 19,

Wilfrid Napier Wilfrid Fox Napier OFM (born 8 March 1941) is a South African prelate of the Catholic Church. He served as Archbishop of Durban from 1992 to 2021 and has been a cardinal since 2001. He served as Bishop of Kokstad from 1981 to 1992. Biograph ...

and

, turned 80 in 2021 and 2022 and thus will not be part of a future conclave (but could still be elected pope). Several others are due to reach the age of 80 in the next couple of years. The nineteen listed, and their current ages, are; Retrieved on 15 October 2020.

Non-''papabili'' elected pope

Barnaba Chiaramonti Pope Pius VII ( it, Pio VII; born Barnaba Niccolò Maria Luigi Chiaramonti; 14 August 1742 – 20 August 1823), was head of the Catholic Church and ruler of the Papal States from 14 March 1800 to his death in August 1823. Chiaramonti was also a m ...

(elected as Pius VII in

1800 As of March 1 ( O.S. February 18), when the Julian calendar acknowledged a leap day and the Gregorian calendar did not, the Julian calendar fell one day further behind, bringing the difference to 12 days until February 28 ( O.S. February 16 ...

) * Annibale della Genga (elected as Leo XII in

1823 Events January–March * January 22 – By secret treaty signed at the Congress of Verona, the Quintuple Alliance gives France a mandate to invade Spain for the purpose of restoring Ferdinand VII (who has been captured by armed revolutio ...

) * Bartolomeo Alberto Mauro Cappellari (elected as Gregory XVI in

1831 Events January–March * January 1 – William Lloyd Garrison begins publishing '' The Liberator'', an anti- slavery newspaper, in Boston, Massachusetts. * January 10 – Japanese department store, Takashimaya in Ky ...

) *

Giuseppe Melchiorre Sarto Pope Pius X ( it, Pio X; born Giuseppe Melchiorre Sarto; 2 June 1835 – 20 August 1914) was head of the Catholic Church from 4 August 1903 to his death in August 1914. Pius X is known for vigorously opposing modernist interpretations of ...

(elected as Pius X in

1903 Events January * January 1 – Edward VII is proclaimed Emperor of India. * January 19 – The first west–east transatlantic radio broadcast is made from the United States to England (the first east–west broadcast having bee ...

) * Achille Ratti (elected as Pius XI in

1922 Events January * January 7 – Dáil Éireann, the parliament of the Irish Republic, ratifies the Anglo-Irish Treaty by 64–57 votes. * January 10 – Arthur Griffith is elected President of Dáil Éireann, the day after Éamon de Valera ...

) * Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli (elected as John XXIII in

) * Albino Luciani (elected as John Paul I in 1978) *

(elected as John Paul II in 1978) Pope John Paul I predicted Cardinal Wojtyła – the future John Paul II – would succeed him, and Cardinal

Jean-Marie Villot Jean-Marie Villot (11 October 1905 – 9 March 1979) was a French prelate and Cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church who served as Archbishop of Lyon from 1965 to 1967, Prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy from 1967 to 1969, Vatican Secre ...

predicted in May 1978 that only Wojtyła could gain the support of two-thirds of the cardinal electors, but was not widely considered ''papabile'' because he was not Italian. As of 1978, no non-Italian had been elected Pope since the 1522 conclave that chose the short-lived Dutch

Pope Adrian VI Pope Adrian VI ( la, Hadrianus VI; it, Adriano VI; nl, Adrianus/Adriaan VI), born Adriaan Florensz Boeyens (2 March 1459 – 14 September 1523), was head of the Catholic Church and ruler of the Papal States from 9 January 1522 until his d ...

Notes

References

Bibliography

News articles

* *

External links

Papabili list for 2009 at "Popes-and-Papacy"

Site ranking potential papabili

BBC News: Bets open on Benedict's successor
{{Catholicism Election of the Pope Italian words and phrases