Opinion polling in the Philippine Senate election, 2013
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Opinion poll An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinion ...
ing (locally known as "surveys") for the
2013 Philippine Senate election The 2013 election of members to the Senate of the Philippines was the 31st election to the Senate of the Philippines. It was held on Monday, May 13, 2013 to elect 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate. Together with those elected in 2010, the can ...
is carried out by two major polling firms:
Social Weather Stations The Social Weather Stations or SWS is a social research institution in the Philippines founded in August 1985. It is a private, non-stock, nonprofit institution. It is the foremost public-opinion polling body in the Philippines. As an independent ...
(SWS), and
Pulse Asia Pulse Asia Research Inc. is a public opinion polling body in the Philippines. It was founded by Professor Emeritus Felipe B. Miranda (M.A. Political Science, University of Chicago) of the University of the Philippines Diliman. Pulse Asia Inc. wa ...
, with a handful of minor polling firms. A typical poll asks a voter to name twelve persons one would vote for in the senate election. The SWS and Pulse Asia's surveys are usually national in scope, while other polling firms usually restrict their samples within
Metro Manila Metropolitan Manila (often shortened as Metro Manila; fil, Kalakhang Maynila), officially the National Capital Region (NCR; fil, link=no, Pambansang Punong Rehiyon), is the seat of government and one of three defined metropolitan areas in ...
.


Candidates

There two major coalitions in this election: Team PNoy (known as the
LP-Akbayan-NPC-NP-LDP Coalition Team PNoy, formerly known as the LP–Akbayan–NPC–NP–LDP Coalition, was a political umbrella coalition in the Philippines, originally formed to support the administration-backed senatorial line-up for the 2013 Philippine Senate election. Tea ...
until January 27, 2013), and the
United Nationalist Alliance The United Nationalist Alliance (UNA; ) is a political party in the Philippines. It was created as a multi-party electoral alliance replacing the former United Opposition (UNO) coalition for the 2013 midterm elections, before it was launche ...
(UNA). The two coalitions used to share three common candidates, until UNA dropped them. A third coalition, the Makabayang Koalisyon ng Mamamayan (Makabayan; Patriotic Coalition of the People) share four candidates from Team PNoy. A further two more parties put up ticket of three candidates each, two parties had a ticket made up of one candidate each, and three candidates are independents that are not a part of any ticket. These are aside from the parties that put up candidates, and may belong to any coalition. In the tables below, the colors refer to the parties, unless otherwise stated in the seat totals sections. *Key: Green tick: regular candidate, yellow tick: guest candidate. Note: * Francis Escudero,
Loren Legarda Lorna Regina "Loren" Bautista Legarda (born January 28, 1960) is a Filipina politician, environmentalist, cultural worker, and former journalist who is currently serving as a Senator and the president pro tempore of the Senate of the Philippine ...
and
Grace Poe Mary Grace Natividad Sonora Poe-Llamanzares (baptized September 3, 1968) is a Filipino politician, businesswoman, educator, and philanthropist serving as a senator since 2013. She was the chairperson of the Movie and Television Review and Clas ...
were included as guest candidates of UNA until they were dropped from the ticket on February 21. Polls that are taken before that date includes the three as part of the UNA ticket in the tables below; those that are after on or after the date excludes them from the UNA tallies.


Voting preferences per candidate

Key dates: *Period of submission of certificates of candidacies: October 1 to 5, 2012 *Start of campaign period for Senate candidates: February 12, 2013 *Start of campaign period for local candidates: March 29, 2013 (Due to that date being a Good Friday, campaigning officially starts on March 30.) *News blackout on election surveys for the Senate election: April 28–May 12, 2013 *Election day: May 13, 2013


Until filing of certificates of candidacy


Until the campaign period for the Senate election


Until the campaign period for local elections


Until election day


Rankings

*Polls administered after October 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies. *The rankings below are from the pollsters that published them. The pollsters may or may not consider "statistical ties", or candidates whose voting preferences' margins are within the margin of error .


Graph

The result of each candidate's opinion poll (survey) result is denoted by a plot point, or a "period" (per.). The lines denote
moving average In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the full data set. It is also called a moving mean (MM) or rolling mean and is ...
s (mov. avg.) of the last three polls (each poll given equal
weight In science and engineering, the weight of an object is the force acting on the object due to gravity. Some standard textbooks define weight as a vector quantity, the gravitational force acting on the object. Others define weight as a scalar qua ...
) for each candidate; as pollsters may use different methodologies, it is invalid to plot each period from all pollsters as if it is a single series. Hence, a moving average is used to link all polls from all pollsters into one series. Some candidates may not appear on some polls, and these do not include candidates who are not on the final list but were included in other polls. The twelfth ranking candidate in each poll is denoted by a line, for easy reference.


Seats won

The first figure denotes the number of candidates from the party or coalition that made it to the top 12 in each survey; the figures inside the parenthesis are other candidates that made it within the
margin of error The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the e ...
. The figure of the party or coalition (except independents) the most seats is highlighted; those that outright win a majority of seats contested (7, if 12 seats will be contested) is ''italicized'', while the party or coalition that outright wins a majority of seats in the Senate (13) is boldfaced. Some of the totals might not add up as most slates have shared candidates.


Before the filing of certificates of candidacy


After the filing of certificates of candidacy

*Polls administered after October 5, 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies.


Composition of the Senate

The first figure denotes the number of candidates from the party or coalition that made it to the top 12 in each survey; the figures inside the parenthesis are other candidates that made it within the
margin of error The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the e ...
. The figure of the party or coalition (except independents) that has the most seats is highlighted; those that outright wins a majority of seats in the Senate (13) is boldfaced. These are polls administered after October 5, 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies.


Overview

Key: * ‡ Seats up * ‡^ Vacant seat up * * Gained by a party from another party * √ Held by the incumbent * + Held by the same party with a new senator


Polls


References

{{2013 Philippine elections 2013 Philippine general election
2013 File:2013 Events Collage V2.png, From left, clockwise: Edward Snowden becomes internationally famous for leaking classified NSA wiretapping information; Typhoon Haiyan kills over 6,000 in the Philippines and Southeast Asia; The Dhaka garment fa ...
Philippines The Philippines (; fil, Pilipinas, links=no), officially the Republic of the Philippines ( fil, Republika ng Pilipinas, links=no), * bik, Republika kan Filipinas * ceb, Republika sa Pilipinas * cbk, República de Filipinas * hil, Republ ...