Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD; officially named N-deterrence) is the defence and

strategic Strategy (from Greek στρατηγία ''stratēgia'', "art of troop leader; office of general, command, generalship") is a general plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the sense of the "art ...

principle on which the atomic weapons programme of Pakistan is based. This doctrine is not a part of the

nuclear doctrine Nuclear strategy involves the development of doctrines and strategies for the production and use of nuclear weapons. As a sub-branch of military strategy, nuclear strategy attempts to match nuclear weapons as means to political ends. In addi ...

, which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a full-scale

declared war A declaration of war is a formal act by which one state announces existing or impending war activity against another. The declaration is a performative speech act (or the signing of a document) by an authorized party of a national government, i ...

if the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Instead, the policy of the Minimum Credible Deterrence falls under

minimal deterrence In nuclear strategy, minimal deterrence, also known as minimum deterrence and finite deterrence, is an application of deterrence theory in which a state possesses no more nuclear weapons than is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking.Kriste ...

as an inverse to the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking any military actions against Pakistan, as it did in 1971, when Pakistan started the war. (see: Indo-Pakistani war of 1971) Pakistan refuses to adopt No first use policy, while the other regional powers India and

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...

had adopted the policy. Pakistan's foreign minister Shamshad Ahmad had warned that if Pakistan is ever invaded or attacked, it will use "any weapon in its arsenal" to defend itself.

Developmental history

The comprehensive nuclear weapons policy was addressed by populist prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in a vision for the country to "walk tall" in global politics. Maintaining equality on every level of scientific development with India was a primary motivation for his government. Domestically, the popular support helped Bhutto to consolidate the political and economical aspects of atomic bomb projects and the control of the Pakistan military in civilian hands. This led the creation of formation of defence mechanism systematic programmes, known as

National Command Authority National Command Authority may refer to: * National Command Authority (Pakistan) * National Command Authority (United States) National Command Authority (NCA) is a term that was used by the Department of Defense of the United States of America to ...

(NCA), Joint Special Forces (JSF) under the control of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee which is led by its designated

Chairman The chairperson, also chairman, chairwoman or chair, is the presiding officer of an organized group such as a board, committee, or deliberative assembly. The person holding the office, who is typically elected or appointed by members of the grou ...

. Externally, the nuclear status was a way to boost Pakistan's prestige, importance and influence on among the friendly and Muslim nations, including rich Gulf monarchies. On 20 May 1999, in his address at the National Defence University (NDU), Prime minister Nawaz Sharif used the term "minimum credible deterrence" while speaking about Pakistan's nuclear stance. There, the Prime minister (even the government at present now), made cleared Pakistan's nuclear declaratory statements that India is regarded as its sole nuclear adversary and thus the focus of its nuclear deterrent. The MCD theory is based on the principles of the deterrence theory and offers the idea of the achieving the

second strike In nuclear strategy, a retaliatory strike or second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker. To have such an ability (and to convince an opponent of it ...

capability. The MCD theory is effectively, an ideal form of

Nash equilibrium In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...

(named after mathematician John Forbes Nash), in which both India and Pakistan, once armed, has no rational incentive to either initiate a conflict, or to disarm.

Promulgation and enforcement

The policy framework was announced by Prime minister of Pakistan (at that time) Nawaz Sharif after ordering to perform country's first atomic tests (see the operations: Chagai-I and Chagai-II) in 1998 as part of tit-for-tat policy. In end of 1998, the doctrine and organisation began to be redesigned, and a proceeded to a full-scope scientific, economical and defence review, involving key country's institutions, to develop and test ideas and concepts. The studies and policy were studied at the National Defence University (NDU), National University of Sciences and Technology, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) and various others. Since the public atomic tests in 1998,

Pakistan Government The Government of Pakistan ( ur, , translit=hakúmat-e pákistán) abbreviated as GoP, is a federal government established by the Constitution of Pakistan as a constituted governing authority of the four provinces, two autonomous territories ...

has adopted considerable recommendations and suggestions to think through its nuclear doctrine, and to integrate the nuclear power dimension into its defence strategy. The definition of potential thresholds has been refined, at least in public statements by Pakistani officials. According to one reliable source, the country adopted a three-point nuclear policy in early 2001 as part of the minimum credible deterrence. The most authoritative of these statements are provided by the officials of the Atomic Command Authority, in the form of four thresholds which were first mentioned by Khalid Kidwai in late 2001.

Policy statements

The theory of "Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD)" has been frequently being interpreted by the various government-in-time of effect of Pakistan. Although the MCD theory was officially adopted in 1998 as part of Pakistan's defence theory, on the other hand, the theory has had been interpreted by the government since in 1972. On military perspective, for instance, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), has retrospectively contended that "MCD is not view to enter into a " nuclear race", but to follow a policy of "

peaceful co-existence Peaceful coexistence (russian: Мирное сосуществование, translit=Mirnoye sosushchestvovaniye) was a theory, developed and applied by the Soviet Union at various points during the Cold War in the context of primarily Marxist� ...

" in the region, it cannot remain oblivious to the developments in South Asia." The

officials have repeatedly emphasized that the MCD is a defence theory, a doctrine that is based on maintaining a balance to safeguard its sovereignty and ensure peace in the region. In 1974, Bhutto launched a more aggressive and serious diplomatic offensive on the United States and the Western world over the nuclear issues. Writing to the world and Western leaders, Bhutto made it clear and maintained:

Rationale and persuasion

The senior officials, economists,

game theorist Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. Myerson, Roger B. (1991). ''Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict,'' Harvard University Press, p.&nbs1 Chapter-preview links, ppvii–xi It has appli ...

s, and strategists affiliated with Pakistan's government has persuaded multiple times for maintaining the Minimum Credible Deterrence. The government officials points out that " Indo-US nuclear deal as well as cooperation in conventional field is likely to grow in India's favour, thus accelerating arms race in the region". Therefore, maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence" would require Pakistan to review its nuclear policy. The government officials maintained that while Pakistan will continue to act with responsibility avoiding an arms race, it will not remain oblivious to the imperative of maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence". The unnamed official at the

Islamabad Policy Research Institute ThIslamabad Policy Research Institute(IPRI), established in 1999, is one of the leading think tanks in Pakistan. It is affiliated with the National Security Division (NSD), Government of Pakistan. IPRI focuses on datafication, digitalization and d ...

(IPRI) stated that "the nuclear weapons programme has been exclusively driven by security considerations to ensure the survival and very existence of the state". In 2012, Prime minister Yousaf Raza Gillani stated the comprehensive policy and quoted: In 2010, a high ranking science minister of government of Pakistan publicly announced at the international conference on science after delegating foreign ambassadors and scientists from all over the world: "Our

nuclear capability Eight sovereign states have publicly announced successful detonation of nuclear weapons. Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the terms of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In order of acquisit ...

is purely for defensive purposes, first believing in peaceful co-existence and reconciliation and will always strive for peace and prosperity in our region".

References

Concept bibliography

Credited scholarly articles

* * {{Pakistan Armed Forces History of the foreign relations of Pakistan Policies of Pakistan History of Pakistan Nuclear strategy Nuclear weapons programme of Pakistan Continuity of government in Pakistan