March to Modernity
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The March to Modernity, coined by
Kishore Mahbubani Kishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant who served as Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations between 1984 and 1989, and again between 1998 and 2004, and President of the U ...
in his 2008 book, "The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East", refers to Asia's modernization using and adapting the seven pillars of Western ideology, causing Asia to rise and to become the new global power. Asia's
modernity Modernity, a topic in the humanities and social sciences, is both a historical period (the modern era) and the ensemble of particular socio-cultural norm (social), norms, attitudes and practices that arose in the wake of the Renaissancein the " ...
was first achieved by Japan and India. Japan's success was emulated by the four economic tigers: South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. China followed soon after by launching its "
Four Modernizations The Four Modernizations (simplified Chinese: 四个现代化; traditional Chinese: 四個現代化) were goals first set forth by Deng Xiaoping to strengthen the fields of agriculture, industry, defense, and science and technology in China. Th ...
" program. China's success of the past three decades in turn inspired the rise of India. Asians are marching to modernity.


Overview

Kishore Mahbubani used the term in his book, ''The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East''. March to Modernity indicates the first and most likely of the three possible scenarios of Asia's modernization in the globalization era. Mahbubani discusses how the rise of Asia will alter the world between the East and the West in the next fifty years. He argues that the modernizing Asia will be good for the whole world in ethical as well as political terms. The West (primarily America), a pioneer of the
globalization Globalization, or globalisation (Commonwealth English; see spelling differences), is the process of interaction and integration among people, companies, and governments worldwide. The term ''globalization'' first appeared in the early 20t ...
and
modernization Modernization theory is used to explain the process of modernization within societies. The "classical" theories of modernization of the 1950s and 1960s drew on sociological analyses of Karl Marx, Emile Durkheim and a partial reading of Max Weber, ...
, has triggered Asian modernization. The desire of Asian states is simply to follow, not to dominate West, which refers to rather the triumph of the West. However, many Western leaders made remarks defining the coming world of rising Asia as dangerous or challenging. (President Bush in 2006, French minister of foreign affairs Barnier in 2005, etc.) This conception is out-dated. The Asian March to Modernity represents a new opportunity both for the West and for the world.


Scenario 1: March to Modernity

Kishore Mahbubani's main argument and first scenario is when the March to Modernity succeeds, the world would become more peaceful, stable and prosperous. Mahbubani's first argument is that the March to Modernity will have a positive co-relational relationship in which modernization of material gains will cause Asia to experience a positive psychological boost. By gaining access to the modernization of the three basic human needs of shelter, water, and electricity, the poor of the Asian hemisphere will experience a boost in hope for a better life. Mahbubani uses the example of India's recent liberalization and shows that in the past decade poor, rural Indians feel more hopeful due to the increase in modernization. The satisfied people will also as stated by Mahbubani have a greater sense of self-dignity. Taking South Korea for example, people feel more liberated and full of hope for the future because they have numerous choices and several possibilities to choose from. Second, entering the modern universe inevitably leads to a greater adherence to the rule of law. Mahbubani argues this point by explaining that through increase of material wealth a greater presence of law will occur, thus creating a sense of ownership and certainty. Through democratization, empowered humans will become responsible in setting world history in a positive direction due to the belief that they have the ability to control their destiny. Lastly, Mahbubani explains that the March to Modernity will also lead to a more ethical universe. Larger shares of the population will be lifted out of absolute poverty, followed by social benefits such as improvements in health and education and a decrease in crime rates. For instance, ideas of Western secular education that emphasizes economy and society are taught in China while the pages of socialism ideas are reduced. According to Mahbubani, the Chinese government spends more money and effort on child education with a heavy bias towards science and technology. However a decade ago, previous education focused on Chinese dynasties and communist revolution rather than globalization. Adopting
free-market In economics, a free market is an economic system in which the prices of goods and services are determined by supply and demand expressed by sellers and buyers. Such markets, as modeled, operate without the intervention of government or any ot ...
economy not only gave China progression in economic activity as well as liberated the minds of Chinese people. Mahbubani believes that the success of North America and the European Union was caused by the middle class who are reluctant to sacrifice their comfortable life due to warfare. When disputes between individuals and societies emerge, they would be settled on the basis of agreed rules and procedures, not by warfare. According to
Larry Summers Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as the 71st United States secretary of the treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as pres ...
, “there can be no personal freedom without personal security”. Therefore, the March to Modernity creates a more secure world due to adherence to rules and order. Examples of Economic Prosperity in Asia • Modernization of China and India has succeeded in reducing the number of people in absolute poverty. • Spread of Cell phone users in India has changed Indian mindset on modern instruments. This “mobile miracle” empowered the less fortunate to fight
poverty Poverty is the state of having few material possessions or little income. Poverty can have diverse social, economic, and political causes and effects. When evaluating poverty in ...
and to be connected to the global economy. Cell phones are now connecting the World's poor to the global economy, which leads to higher productivity. Examples of Political Stability in Asia • China has actively responded to the call of the World Bank to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international order (Sept. 2005). • Most Asian countries want to take responsible parts in the open multilateral international order.


Other two possible scenarios


Scenario 2: The Retreat into Fortresses

In the second scenario, Mahbubani believes that the Western hemisphere, will become threatened by Asia's success. Thus, the West will engaged in rigid
protectionism Protectionism, sometimes referred to as trade protectionism, is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations. ...
to halt Asia's rising status. However, Mahbubani explains that Europe has engaged in protectionist techniques since the end of the Cold War. These strategies includes massive subsidies to the wealthy few in Europe and using tax payers’ dollars on unnecessary language translations. Although the European Union's protectionist policies has not hindered the overall growth of the global economy, according to David Hale, a Wall Street journalist,“the greatest threat to this lobalboom is that the United States will lose confidence in the free market ideology". Protectionism is also happening in the investment sector of global politics. The United States has backed out of foreign investment due to the concern of national security issues.
Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American economist, who is Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and a columnist for ''The New York Times''. In 2008, Krugman was th ...
, one of America's leading economist acknowledges that free trade is not universally beneficial in that there will be some winners and some losers. However
the World Bank The World Bank Group (WBG) is a family of five international organizations that make leveraged loans to developing countries. It is the largest and best-known development bank in the world and an observer at the United Nations Development Grou ...
, states that countries that engaged in free trade will actually see a rise in their economies as well due to the laws of comparative advantage.


Scenario 3: The Triumph of the West

The Triumph of the West is the last scenario presented by Mahbubani. The West, having positioned itself as a superpower after the Cold War,
Westernization Westernization (or Westernisation), also Europeanisation or occidentalization (from the ''Occident''), is a process whereby societies come under or adopt Western culture in areas such as industry, technology, science, education, politics, economi ...
will increase thus causing all other nations to adopt Western values and become "cultural clones of the West". This argument was elaborated by
Francis Fukuyama Francis Yoshihiro Fukuyama (; born October 27, 1952) is an American political scientist, political economist, international relations scholar and writer. Fukuyama is known for his book ''The End of History and the Last Man'' (1992), which argue ...
in his book "
The End of History The end of history is a political and philosophical concept that supposes that a particular political, economic, or social system may develop that would constitute the end-point of humanity's sociocultural evolution and the final form of human go ...
" arguing for the "end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government". Mahbubani contends that three fundamental flaws exists in this scenario. The first flaw is the belief that the West had triumphed over the Soviet Union because of its values and political system. Mahbubani illustrates it was the economic system that led to Western triumph, and the success of China and the failure of Soviet Union reveal the flaw of the argument. Deng Xiaoping focused on introducing free-market economics to China by correctly understanding the source of Western strength, while Gorbachev focused on
glasnost ''Glasnost'' (; russian: link=no, гласность, ) has several general and specific meanings – a policy of maximum openness in the activities of state institutions and freedom of information, the inadmissibility of hushing up problems, ...
(political openness) over
perestroika ''Perestroika'' (; russian: links=no, перестройка, p=pʲɪrʲɪˈstrojkə, a=ru-perestroika.ogg) was a political movement for reform within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) during the late 1980s widely associated wit ...
(economic restructuring). In other words, Gorbachev's failure to realize the power of Western economic system led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The belief that "any society anywhere in the world at any state of social and economic development could be immediately transformed overnight into a liberal democracy" is the second flaw of the Western triumphalist thesis. The author points out that everywhere else apart from the East European countries, which shared common history and culture with Western Europe,
democratization Democratization, or democratisation, is the transition to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction. It may be a hybrid regime in transition from an authoritarian regime to a ful ...
failed. He offers the example of the Balkans to argue that "without the right institutions and political culture, long-smoldering ethnic, religious, and nationalistic sentiments in many countries can be whipped up by opportunistic demagogues", leading to failure in transition to democracy. Although democratic elections were held in Croatia and Serbia, instead of liberal democrats, nationalist demagogues were elected. The leaders then appealed to visceral nationalist sentiments to retain their power, which led to war. Unprepared democratization can also lead to internal ethnic conflicts, as illustrated by the ethnic cleansing of Croats in parts of the former Yugoslavia, the attacks on the Chinese minority in Indonesia, and the Tutsi slaughter in Rwanda. Lastly, disregarding cultural differences by believing that the model of Western liberal democratic society is universally applicable to all societies is another flaw in the triumphant post-Cold War thesis. Mahbubani claims that cultures are different and failing to see this shows generosity but also arrogance of the West. The author asserts that there is nothing superior about the Western values, rather, other dormant cultures simply underwent revival of cultural confidence and dynamism when the West was experiencing one of its most triumphant moments. Based on the flaws, Kishore Mahbubani argues that this scenario is least likely to happen in the future.


Reasons for Asia's rise

In his book,
The New Asian Hemisphere
''
Kishore Mahbubani Kishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant who served as Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations between 1984 and 1989, and again between 1998 and 2004, and President of the U ...
explains seven pillars of Western wisdom that have contributed to Asia's march to modernity: # Free-market economics # Science and technology # Meritocracy # Pragmatism # Culture of peace # Rule of law # Education


Cases of Asia's modernity

Kishore Mahbubani Kishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant who served as Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations between 1984 and 1989, and again between 1998 and 2004, and President of the U ...
suggests two significant cases of Asia's modernity; China and India. * China According to 'The China Modernization Report', China measures its modernization level with two assessment criteria; first stage, "industrialization and urbanization" and second stage, a "knowledge-driven and information-driven" society. The 2007 China Modernization Report predicts that by 2015, China will have reached modernization "to the level of developed nations in 1960". *India The mobile phone revolution in India shows how "just one modern instrument" impacts modernization. It is not just the spread of mobile phones but the spread of communication and information.


See also

*
Kishore Mahbubani Kishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant who served as Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations between 1984 and 1989, and again between 1998 and 2004, and President of the U ...
*
Modernity Modernity, a topic in the humanities and social sciences, is both a historical period (the modern era) and the ensemble of particular socio-cultural norm (social), norms, attitudes and practices that arose in the wake of the Renaissancein the " ...
*
Chinese Economic Reform The Chinese economic reform or reform and opening-up (), known in the West as the opening of China, is the program of economic reforms termed " Socialism with Chinese characteristics" and "socialist market economy" in the People's Republic of C ...
*
India India, officially the Republic of India (Hindi: ), is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by area, the second-most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the so ...
*
Free Market In economics, a free market is an economic system in which the prices of goods and services are determined by supply and demand expressed by sellers and buyers. Such markets, as modeled, operate without the intervention of government or any o ...
*
Larry Summers Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as the 71st United States secretary of the treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as pres ...
*
Poverty Poverty is the state of having few material possessions or little income. Poverty can have diverse social, economic, and political causes and effects. When evaluating poverty in ...
* David Hale (economist) *
Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American economist, who is Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and a columnist for ''The New York Times''. In 2008, Krugman was th ...


References


Further reading on K. Mahbubani

* ''Can Asians Think? Understanding the Divide Between East and West'', Steerforth, 2001, ; Times Editions; 3rd edition, 2004, * ''Beyond the Age of Innocence: Rebuilding Trust Between America and the World'', Perseus Books Group, 2005, * ''The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World'', PublicAffairs, 2013


Further related reading

* Francis Fukuyama, ''The End of History and the Last Man'', The National Interest, 1992 {{ISBN, 0-413-77270-5 Economy of Asia