Malcolm Mackerras
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Malcolm Hugh Mackerras AO (born 26 August 1939) is an Australian psephologist and commentator and lecturer on Australian and
American American(s) may refer to: * American, something of, from, or related to the United States of America, commonly known as the "United States" or "America" ** Americans, citizens and nationals of the United States of America ** American ancestry, pe ...
politics Politics (from , ) is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of resources or status. The branch of social science that studies ...
.


Education and works

Malcolm Mackerras was born at
Turramurra Turramurra is a suburb on the Upper North Shore of Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. It is located north-west of the Sydney central business district, in the local government area of Ku-ring-gai Council. It shares the postc ...
in
Sydney Sydney ( ) is the capital city of the state of New South Wales, and the most populous city in both Australia and Oceania. Located on Australia's east coast, the metropolis surrounds Sydney Harbour and extends about towards the Blue Mountain ...
in August 1939. He is a brother of
Sir Charles Mackerras Mackerras in 2005 Sir Alan Charles MacLaurin Mackerras (; 1925 2010) was an Australian conductor. He was an authority on the operas of Janáček and Mozart, and the comic operas of Gilbert and Sullivan. He was long associated with the Engli ...
, a well-known conductor, and twin brother of Professor
Colin Mackerras Colin Patrick Mackerras (; born 26 August 1939 Sydney, Australia) is an Australian sinologist, Emeritus Professor at Griffith University, and specialist in Chinese culture. He has published on Chinese drama, national minorities of China, Aus ...
, a leading
China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...
specialist. Another brother,
Neil Mackerras Neil Richard Maclaurin Mackerras (20 May 1930 – 1 August 1987) was an Australian barrister and social campaigner. Mackerras was born at Vaucluse to electrical engineer Alan Patrick Mackerras and Catherine Brearcliffe, ''née'' MacLaurin; his bro ...
, was active in the Democratic Labor Party in its early years. Yet another, Alastair Mackerras, was headmaster (principal) of Sydney Grammar School from 1969 to 1989. After attending St Aloysius' College, Milson's Point (1947–1951) and Sydney Grammar School (1952-1956) Malcolm was employed by
BHP BHP Group Limited (formerly known as BHP Billiton) is an Australian multinational mining, metals, natural gas petroleum public company that is headquartered in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. The Broken Hill Proprietary Company was founded ...
from 1957–1960, during which time he studied at night for the
degree Degree may refer to: As a unit of measurement * Degree (angle), a unit of angle measurement ** Degree of geographical latitude ** Degree of geographical longitude * Degree symbol (°), a notation used in science, engineering, and mathematics ...
of Bachelor of Economics at the
University of Sydney The University of Sydney (USYD), also known as Sydney University, or informally Sydney Uni, is a public research university located in Sydney, Australia. Founded in 1850, it is the oldest university in Australia and is one of the country's si ...
(awarded 1962). Mackerras was a member of the ACT Young Liberals in the late 1960s. His second employer was the Federal
Secretariat Secretariat may refer to: * Secretariat (administrative office) * Secretariat (horse) Secretariat (March 30, 1970 – October 4, 1989), also known as Big Red, was a champion American thoroughbred racehorse who is the ninth winner of the Ame ...
of the
Liberal Party of Australia The Liberal Party of Australia is a centre-right political party in Australia, one of the two major parties in Australian politics, along with the centre-left Australian Labor Party. It was founded in 1944 as the successor to the United Au ...
for which he was a research officer (1960–1967). The organisation moved him to
Canberra Canberra ( ) is the capital city of Australia. Founded following the federation of the colonies of Australia as the seat of government for the new nation, it is Australia's largest inland city and the eighth-largest city overall. The ci ...
where he has lived continuously since 1965. He spent several years as a ministerial assistant and three years as an
economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
with the Chamber of Manufactures (1968–1970), "trying to present the case for protection for Australian manufacturing industry". In 1974 Mackerras was employed in the Department of Government at
Royal Military College, Duntroon lit: Learning promotes strength , established = , type = Military college , chancellor = , head_label = Commandant , head = Brigadier Ana Duncan , principal = , city = Campbell , state = ...
by the
University of New South Wales The University of New South Wales (UNSW), also known as UNSW Sydney, is a public research university based in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. It is one of the founding members of Group of Eight, a coalition of Australian research-intensive ...
. He went on to become an Associate Professor in Political Science, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, at the
Australian Defence Force Academy The Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) is a tri-service military Academy that provides military and academic education for junior officers of the Australian Defence Force in the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), Australian Army and Royal Aus ...
in Canberra in 1999. Mackerras retired from the University of New South Wales in 2004. Mackerras is now an Honorary Fellow at
Australian Catholic University Australian Catholic University (ACU) is a public university in Australia. It has seven Australian campuses and also maintains a campus in Rome. History Australian Catholic University was opened on 1 January 1991 following the amalgamatio ...
, Canberra Campus. He is especially interested in elections and electoral systems. His several books and many journal articles are largely in those areas. He has written many articles for ''
The Australian ''The Australian'', with its Saturday edition, ''The Weekend Australian'', is a broadsheet newspaper published by News Corp Australia since 14 July 1964.Bruns, Axel. "3.1. The active audience: Transforming journalism from gatekeeping to gatew ...
'' and ''
The Canberra Times ''The Canberra Times'' is a daily newspaper in Canberra, Australia, which is published by Australian Community Media. It was founded in 1926, and has changed ownership and format several times. History ''The Canberra Times'' was launched in ...
'' on these subjects. He likes whenever possible to visit countries during their elections. He visited
South Africa South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. It is bounded to the south by of coastline that stretch along the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans; to the north by the neighbouring countri ...
in 1999 as an observer for that country's second democratic election (May–June 1999). He likes, in particular, to be in the
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territorie ...
for a presidential election as it greatly improves his American teaching. During his stay in the US in November–December 2000, there was a "snap" election in
Canada Canada is a country in North America. Its ten provinces and three territories extend from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and northward into the Arctic Ocean, covering over , making it the world's second-largest country by tot ...
, which he visited, enabling him to improve his knowledge of Canadian politics. Mackerras's first published study of Australian politics was ''The Australian Senate 1965-1967: Who Held Control?''. He followed this with ''The 1968 Federal Redistribution'' (1969). His first major work was ''Australian General Elections'' (1972) in which he pioneered the concept of the two-party majority and the two-party swing, and introduced the "pendulum", a table of federal electorates in order of two-party majority, now commonly known as the
Mackerras Pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House ...
. He followed this with a series of books before each federal election, such as ''Elections 1975'', ''Elections 1980'', ''The Mackerras 1990 Federal Election Guide'' and ''The Malcolm Mackerras 1993 Federal Election Guide''. He is commonly described as a psephologist which means "one who studies elections". However, he insists that his political science interests are much broader than that. Indeed, one of the reasons for his determination on the November–December 2000 North American visit was to study all the legal manoeuvres in connection with the only "cliffhanger" presidential election of the 20th century. He visited the US again in September 2004 to attend the Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association The American Political Science Association (APSA) is a professional association of political science students and scholars in the United States. Founded in 1903 in the Tilton Memorial Library (now Tilton Hall) of Tulane University in New Orleans, ...
in
Chicago (''City in a Garden''); I Will , image_map = , map_caption = Interactive Map of Chicago , coordinates = , coordinates_footnotes = , subdivision_type = Country , subdivision_name ...
. For the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 he has been specialising in Australian state elections. He visited
South Australia South Australia (commonly abbreviated as SA) is a state in the southern central part of Australia. It covers some of the most arid parts of the country. With a total land area of , it is the fourth-largest of Australia's states and territories ...
in February 2002,
Victoria Victoria most commonly refers to: * Victoria (Australia), a state of the Commonwealth of Australia * Victoria, British Columbia, provincial capital of British Columbia, Canada * Victoria (mythology), Roman goddess of Victory * Victoria, Seychelle ...
in November–December 2002 and
New South Wales ) , nickname = , image_map = New South Wales in Australia.svg , map_caption = Location of New South Wales in AustraliaCoordinates: , subdivision_type = Country , subdivision_name = Australia , established_title = Before federation , es ...
in March 2003 for elections in those states, which involved writing
newspaper A newspaper is a periodical publication containing written information about current events and is often typed in black ink with a white or gray background. Newspapers can cover a wide variety of fields such as politics, business, sports a ...
articles plus broadcasting. He did the same for
Queensland ) , nickname = Sunshine State , image_map = Queensland in Australia.svg , map_caption = Location of Queensland in Australia , subdivision_type = Country , subdivision_name = Australia , established_title = Before federation , established_ ...
where a state election was held on 7 February 2004. He did the same for Australia's federal election on 9 October 2004.


Publications

His two most recent books are ''Australian Political Facts: Second Edition'' (Macmillan, 1997) which he wrote with Ian McAllister and Carolyn Brown Boldiston and, more recently, ''Constitutional Politics: The Republic Referendum and the Future'' (University of Queensland Press, 2002), which he edited with John Warhurst of the Australian National University. The two men took opposite sides in the debate over the 1999 Australian republic referendum but have now joined together to record the event.


Election commentary

Mackerras has been a regular commentator on Australian elections in print, on radio and television on most federal and state elections. He has become well known for his predictions of electoral outcomes. He claims a "win" ratio of two in three and adds, "''at least I'm not boring. The election analyst who makes predictions is far more interesting than one who doesn't. And if I collect egg on my face, then so be it.''" An example of an incorrect prediction was the one he made in ''
The Australian ''The Australian'', with its Saturday edition, ''The Weekend Australian'', is a broadsheet newspaper published by News Corp Australia since 14 July 1964.Bruns, Axel. "3.1. The active audience: Transforming journalism from gatekeeping to gatew ...
'' on 1 November 2004: he said that
John Kerry John Forbes Kerry (born December 11, 1943) is an American attorney, politician and diplomat who currently serves as the first United States special presidential envoy for climate. A member of the Forbes family and the Democratic Party (Unite ...
would defeat
George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...
in a landslide in the U.S. presidential election the following day, and specifically predicted that Kerry would carry
Florida Florida is a state located in the Southeastern region of the United States. Florida is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest by Alabama, to the north by Georgia, to the east by the Bahamas and Atlantic Ocean, and to ...
,
Ohio Ohio () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States. Of the fifty U.S. states, it is the 34th-largest by area, and with a population of nearly 11.8 million, is the seventh-most populous and tenth-most densely populated. The sta ...
,
Nevada Nevada ( ; ) is a U.S. state, state in the Western United States, Western region of the United States. It is bordered by Oregon to the northwest, Idaho to the northeast, California to the west, Arizona to the southeast, and Utah to the east. N ...
and
Missouri Missouri is a U.S. state, state in the Midwestern United States, Midwestern region of the United States. Ranking List of U.S. states and territories by area, 21st in land area, it is bordered by eight states (tied for the most with Tennessee ...
.


Further reading

* Joan Priest, ''Gentlemen and Scholars: A Biography of the Mackerras Family'', Brisbane: Boolarong Publications, 1986. .


External links


University staff web site and pendulumsPersonal Website and Blog


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Mackerras, Malcolm 1939 births Living people Australian journalists People educated at St Aloysius' College (Sydney) People educated at Sydney Grammar School University of Sydney alumni Australian monarchists Officers of the Order of Australia Psephologists Australian statisticians Australian twins