Kenneth Massey is an American sports
statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the
Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season. He is an assistant professor of mathematics at
Carson–Newman University in Tennessee.
Methods
Massey, unlike the developers of other
sports rating system
A sports rating system is a system that analyzes the results of sports competitions to provide ratings for each team or player. Common systems include polls of expert voters, crowdsourcing non-expert voters, betting markets, and computer systems. R ...
s, gives quite a lot of information on how his system works, but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety. The Massey ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes. The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance. A team will not always play up to its full potential. Other random factors (officiating, bounce of the ball) may also affect the outcome of a game. The model must somehow eliminate the "noise" which obscures the true strength of a team. The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule. When there is a large disparity in schedule strength, win–loss records lose their significance. The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents, as well as contests between well matched teams. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins, convincing wins, and playing a tough schedule. This issue is difficult to resolve, and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes. The overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a
Bayesian
Thomas Bayes (/beɪz/; c. 1701 – 1761) was an English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister.
Bayesian () refers either to a range of concepts and approaches that relate to statistical methods based on Bayes' theorem, or a followe ...
win–loss correction to the power rating. Only the score, venue, and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings. Stats such as rushing yards, rebounds, or field-goal percentage are not included. Nor are game conditions such as weather, crowd noise, day/night, or grass/
artificial turf. Overtime games are not treated any differently. Finally, neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered.
Justification
Massey's ratings are particularly relevant in the world of
American college
football, where, with over 100 teams in
NCAA Division I
NCAA Division I (D-I) is the highest level of intercollegiate athletics sanctioned by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) in the United States, which accepts players globally. D-I schools include the major collegiate athletic ...
competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents.
Massey's analysis is a valuable tool for leagues that need to fairly seed playoff brackets, or schedule games that will encourage competitive play and good sportsmanship.
Sports rating systems are generally used by
gambler
Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of value ("the stakes") on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elem ...
s to forecast results, but Massey is not affiliated with this industry.
Massey's ratings came under some scrutiny, even from Massey himself in late 2008 for rating undefeated Utah ahead of then-consensus human poll #1 Alabama at the end of the season. In spite of the controversy, his ratings gained redemption after then-#6 Utah's 31–17 victory in the 2009 Sugar Bowl over then-#4 Alabama.
Background
Massey first got the idea to do sports ratings as an undergraduate at
Bluefield College. He developed various rating models at that time, and presented his work in the form of an honors project. While doing graduate work in mathematics at
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech (formally the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and informally VT, or VPI) is a public land-grant research university with its main campus in Blacksburg, Virginia. It also has educational facilities in six re ...
, Massey was invited by
Roy Kramer
Roy is a masculine given name and a family surname with varied origin.
In Anglo-Norman England, the name derived from the Norman ''roy'', meaning "king", while its Old French cognate, ''rey'' or ''roy'' (modern ''roi''), likewise gave rise t ...
, then commissioner of the
Southeastern Conference
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) is an American college athletic conference whose member institutions are located primarily in the South Central and Southeastern United States. Its fourteen members include the flagship public universities o ...
and president of the
Bowl Championship Series, to submit his ratings for inclusion in the BCS ranking formula. Massey's college football rankings were part of the BCS formula from 1999 to 2013.
Massey also consults for various amateur and professional athletic leagues.
Personal life
Massey resides in a high neighborhood of
Jefferson City, TN with his wife, a native of
Sibiu, Romania. They currently have three small children, a daughter Page, and sons Charles and Vlad.
References
External links
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Massey, Kenneth
Living people
American statisticians
1975 births
Bluefield College alumni
Carson–Newman University faculty
Virginia Tech alumni
People from Jefferson City, Tennessee
College football championships