India as an emerging superpower

India is considered a soft power and one of the potential superpowers of the world. This potential is attributed to several indicators, the primary ones being its demographic trends and a rapidly expanding economy and military. India is quietly laying claim to economic superpower status. In 2022, India overtook UK as the world’s fifth biggest economy – and it could be third by 2030 as per several economists. As per a recent comment from 28th Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Abbott - India is considered as a democratic super power.

Factors in favour

Possible future advantage of location

India lies in the South Asian portion of the Indian Ocean – a zone with unprecedented potential for growth in the scale of transoceanic commerce, with many Eurasian and increasingly Afro-Asian sea-trade routes passing through or close to Indian territorial waters. The subcontinent's land and water resources, though strained, are still sustaining its massive population.

In a speech in 1909, George Curzon, 1st Marquess Curzon of Kedleston (a former Viceroy of India) explained the importance of India to the British Empire:

Demographic factors

Large population

India has the world's largest population after China. The PGR for the country is 1.1. A very large number of India's population, about 50%, is below the age group of 24. This provides the nation with a large workforce for many decades, helping in its growth. The United Nations has reported that India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.

Young population

Due to its high birth rate, India has a young population compared to more developed nations. Approximately 65% of its population is below the age of 35. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend. In the coming decades, while some of the powerful nations will witness a decrease in workforce numbers, India is expected to have an increase. For example, while Europe is well past its demographic window, the United States entered its own in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its own in 1990 (and will last until 2025), India entered its own in 2010 (and it will last until 2050). In the words of Indian Scholar Rejaul Karim Laskar, "when greying population will be seen inhibiting economic growth of major countries, India will be brimming with youthful energy". Regionally, South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and the Middle East, with the window extending up to the 2070s.

Global diaspora

More than 32 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful— especially in the US and the UK where they are the highest earning ethnic demographic.

Foreign language skills

The importance of the English language in the 21st century is a topic of debate, nonetheless the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "global language" status. Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population. It claims one of the largest workforces of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English. It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the United States, with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million speakers, and is expected to have the largest in coming decades. Indians are also learning Dutch, Italian, French, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin Chinese, Russian, German, and Spanish.

Political factors

Democratic republicanism

India is the world's largest democratic republic, four times bigger than the next largest (the United States). It has so far been successful politically, especially considering its functionality despite its difficult ethnic composition. The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of the nations in the developed world.

Candidacy for Security Council

India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as part of the G4 nations) but with a clause that it won't exercise its veto for the next 15 years. It has received backing from United States, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom. However, China's stance remains unclear.

Foreign relations

India has developed relationships with the world powers like the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, Russia, and the United States. It also developed relationships with the African Union (particularly South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast Asia, Israel and South American nations (particularly Brazil). To make the environment favourable for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China. It has significantly boosted its image among Western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan.

Role in international politics

Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement and had good relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with the global economy. Currently, India's political moves are being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the uncharted role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia, the other being at Beijing. Some enlightened thinkers from the subcontinent have also envisioned, over the long run, a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, where the South Asian nations relinquish all past animosities and move to make economic growth a pan subcontinental phenomenon.

Multipolarity

A new and highly controversial geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world, and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world. Generally speaking, it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States.

Economic growth

India's current economic growth (as the world's fastest-growing major economy as of 2015) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationships with India.

Economic factors

Booming economy

The economy of India is currently the world's third largest in terms of real GDP ( PPP) after the United States of America and the People's Republic of China. According to the World Bank, India overtook China to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world as of 2015. Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003 when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4
India's Rising Economy
by John Williamson Estimates by the IMF show that in 2011 (see List of countries by future GDP estimates (PPP)), India became the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy and the fifth largest economy by GDP (Nominal). India has grown at 7.5% in 2015.

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Primary sector

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India, growing at 9% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food next to China. Food processing accounts for US$69.4 billion as gross income.

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Secondary sector

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India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in the future, since the manufacturing sector is growing at 11-12%.

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Tertiary and quaternary sector

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India currently has an expanding IT industry which is considered one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a ''technology superpower''. It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce.

Science and technology

India is attempting to develop a highly skilled workforce with an expert command of the English language to fit into the future knowledge economy. India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software; with mushrooming research and development centres, it is experiencing a steady revolution in its science and technology sector. A typical example of India's accomplished scientific endeavours includes: becoming the third nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S.; the third Asian nation to launch a satellite from an indigenously developed rocket into orbit after China and Japan, starting with Rohini RS-1 in 1979. In January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry In October 2008, India launched its first unmanned lunar probe, Chandrayaan 1, which operated until August 2009. On 14 November 2008, the Moon Impact Probe separated from the Chandrayaan orbiter at 20:06 and was deliberately made to strike the Moon near the south pole, making India the fourth country to reach the Moon's surface. Among its many achievements was the discovery of the widespread presence of water molecules in lunar soil. On 24 September 2014, India became the fourth nation to have a satellite orbiting Mars. India is the first Asian nation to achieve this and the first to do so in a first attempt in the whole world. India and the United States have increased mutual co-operation in space-travel related technologies, such as increasing the interoperability between Indian and US systems, and prospects for a commercial space launch agreement with India that would allow US satellites to be launched on Indian vehicles. India is among the world leaders in remote sensing, a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers. India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project and the ITER for fusion energy club. India also holds a world record for placing 104 satellites in orbit by single launch. India recently launched Chandrayaan 2 mission to moon which had included a lander and rover. It also has a planned space mission( Indian Human spaceflight) to send a human to space by 2022. Some Indian educational and research institutions like IISc, IIT, IISER, NIT, IIIT, BITS Pilani, IIM, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.

Energy

In the future, the world is expected to exit the "fossil fuel age" and perhaps the "nuclear energy age", and enter the '' "renewable-energy age"'' or even further into the '' "fusion power age"'', if and whenever these technologies become economically sustainable. Being a region in the sunny tropical belt, the Indian subcontinent could greatly benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has the ideal combination of both - high solar insolation and a big consumer base density. For example, considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a region's energy intensity) and the fact that - cooling load requirements, unlike heating, are roughly in phase with the sun's intensity, cooling from the excessive solar radiation could make great energetic (and hence economic) sense in the subcontinent, whenever the required technology becomes competitively cheaper. India also has 25% of the world's thorium resources.

To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations. On 25 January 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin offered to build 4 more reactors on a visit to India, and India is expected to clinch this deal of strategical importance. Recently, it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US and EU. In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia).

Mass transit system

India is in the process of developing modern mass rapid transit systems to replace its existing system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Kochi, Gurgaon, Jaipur and Lucknow . Work is in progress or would be commencing shortly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of Noida, Pune Bhopal, Nagpur, Indore, Kanpur and Ahmedabad. Indore is leading the track by implementing world class GPS enabled low floor buses in a Rapid Transport System. With the growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140  km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 9 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually. Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries. India is heading towards the implementation of high-speed rail in the country.

Tourism

India, with its diverse and fascinating history, arts, music, culture, spiritual & social models has witnessed the growth of a booming tourism industry.India's incredible tourism story only gets better
by Saikat Neogi, 16 October 2006 India is a historic place with a diverse history of over five millennia. About 3.9 million tourists travelled to India in 2005, each spending approximately $1,470 per person, higher than that of France (the leading tourist destination in the world). Foreign visitors in 2005 spent more than US$15.4 billion annually in India. Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite the hassles inefficiency, pollution and overcrowding. Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land. As of 2006, Conde Nast Traveller ranked India the 4th most preferred travel destination. The Planning Commission expects 5.8 million tourists travelling to India by 2010. The World Travel and Tourism Council believes India's tourism industry will grow at 10% per annum in the next decade, making it lead the world in terms of growth. Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and employs 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth. More than 8 million foreign tourists arrived in the year 2015 against 7.68 million in 2014
recording a growth of 4.4 percent over 2014.

Medical tourism in India

Indian Metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. Last year, an estimated 150,000 foreigners visited India for medical procedures, and the number is increasing at the rate of about 15 percent a year.

Military factors

Total strength

The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the largest active duty force in the world as of 2020, while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force.

Army

The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is the world's largest army in total numbers of armed personnel.

Air force

The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world. India recently inducted its second indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. India is also developing the fifth generation stealth aircraft.

Navy

The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy. It is considered to have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. It operates two aircraft carrier and also plans to induct the by 2020 followed by a larger INS Vishal.

Integrated Guided Missile Development Program

India started the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) to be a self-reliant nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles like the Prithvi and Agni of ballistic missiles, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti tank Nag missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of Indian nuclear second strike capability. Trishul missile is declared a technology demonstrator. The Akash (Sky) is in service with the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force. While Nag and Helina missiles are undergoing user trials. Recently, a new weapons system, the beyond visual range air-to-air Astra missile was added to the project. Also India has fielded many modern missiles like the anti ballistic missiles like the AAD and PAD along with submarine launched ballistic missiles for its Arihant class of nuclear ballistic submarines. The expertise in developing these missiles has helped Indian scientists to contribute to joint weapon development programs like the Brahmos

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