Gambler’s conceit is the fallacy described by behavioral economist David J. Ewing, where a gambler believes they will be able to stop a risky behavior while still engaging in it. This belief frequently operates during games of chance, such as

casino A casino is a facility for certain types of gambling. Casinos are often built near or combined with hotels, resorts, restaurants, retail shopping, cruise ships, and other tourist attractions. Some casinos are also known for hosting live entertai ...

games. The

gambler Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of value ("the stakes") on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elem ...

believes they will be a net winner at the game, and thus able to avoid going broke by exerting the self-control necessary to stop playing while still ahead in winnings. This is often expressed as “I’ll quit when I’m ahead.” Quitting while ahead is unlikely, though, since a gambler who is winning has little incentive to quit, and is instead encouraged to continue to gamble by their winning. Once in the throes of a winning streak, the individual may even become convinced that it is their skill, rather than chance, causing their winnings, or good luck is on their side, and thus it seems especially senseless to stop. The gambler's conceit frequently works in conjunction with the gambler's fallacy: the mistaken idea that a losing streak in a game of chance, such as roulette, has to come to an end or is lowered because the frequency of one event has an effect on a following independent event. Therefore, players think that it is necessary to continue playing while winning and necessary to continue playing while losing. Relatedly,

gambler's ruin The gambler's ruin is a concept in statistics. It is most commonly expressed as follows: A gambler playing a game with negative expected value will eventually go broke, regardless of their betting system. The concept was initially stated: A per ...

shows that a player with finite resources continuously playing will inevitably go broke against a player with infinite resources in a fair or negative-expectation game. However, this is also true in a positive-expectation game if the player with finite resources continually plays and increases their stakes when winning, but does not reduce them when losing. As casinos have a

house advantage Games available in most casinos are commonly called casino games. In a casino game, the players gamble cash or casino chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes. Casino games are also available in online casinos, whe ...

in games of chance, a casino is more likely over time to take a player's money than a player is to win money from the casino, and thus it is to the casino's advantage to keep a winning player playing. Casinos thus frequently encourage winning players to continue playing. An example can be seen in the

Martin Scorsese Martin Charles Scorsese ( , ; born November 17, 1942) is an American film director, producer, screenwriter and actor. Scorsese emerged as one of the major figures of the New Hollywood era. He is the recipient of many major accolades, inclu ...

movie ''

Casino A casino is a facility for certain types of gambling. Casinos are often built near or combined with hotels, resorts, restaurants, retail shopping, cruise ships, and other tourist attractions. Some casinos are also known for hosting live entertai ...

'' in which Robert De Niro's character ensures that a high-stakes gambler continues to gamble to ensure that the money returns to the casino. On a smaller scale, casinos offer players free alcoholic drinks to encourage them to keep gambling.

References

{{Superstitions Gambling terminology Behavioral economics Luck Causal fallacies

See also

References