Demographic history is the reconstructed record of human population in the past. Given the lack of population records prior to the 1950s, there are many gaps in our record of demographic history. Historical demographers must make do with estimates, models and extrapolations. For the

demographic Demography () is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as ed ...

methodology, see historical demography.

Historical population of the world

Estimating the ancestral population of

anatomically modern humans Early modern human (EMH) or anatomically modern human (AMH) are terms used to distinguish '' Homo sapiens'' (the only extant Hominina species) that are anatomically consistent with the range of phenotypes seen in contemporary humans from exti ...

, Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones chose bounds based on

gorilla Gorillas are herbivorous, predominantly ground-dwelling great apes that inhabit the tropical forests of equatorial Africa. The genus ''Gorilla'' is divided into two species: the eastern gorilla and the western gorilla, and either four ...

and

chimpanzee The chimpanzee (''Pan troglodytes''), also known as simply the chimp, is a species of great ape native to the forest and savannah of tropical Africa. It has four confirmed subspecies and a fifth proposed subspecies. When its close relative t ...

population densities of 1/km² and 3-4/km², respectively, then assumed that as ''

Homo erectus ''Homo erectus'' (; meaning "upright man") is an extinct species of archaic human from the Pleistocene, with its earliest occurrence about 2 million years ago. Several human species, such as '' H. heidelbergensis'' and '' H. antecessor ...

'' moved up the food chain, they lost an order of magnitude in density. With a habitat of 68 million km² ("the

Old World The "Old World" is a term for Afro-Eurasia that originated in Europe , after Europeans became aware of the existence of the Americas. It is used to contrast the continents of Africa, Europe, and Asia, which were previously thought of by thei ...

south of latitude 50° north, minus

Australia Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands. With an area of , Australia is the largest country by ...

"), ''Homo erectus'' could have numbered around 1.7 million individuals. After being replaced by ''

Homo sapiens Humans (''Homo sapiens'') are the most abundant and widespread species of primate, characterized by bipedalism and exceptional cognitive skills due to a large and complex brain. This has enabled the development of advanced tools, culture ...

'' and moving into the

New World The term ''New World'' is often used to mean the majority of Earth's Western Hemisphere, specifically the Americas."America." ''The Oxford Companion to the English Language'' (). McArthur, Tom, ed., 1992. New York: Oxford University Press, p. ...

and de-glaciated territory, by 10,000 BC world population was approaching four million people. McEvedy and Jones argue that, after populating the maximum available range, this was the limit of our food-gathering ancestors, with further population growth requiring food-producing activities. The initial population "upswing" began around 5000 BC. Global population gained 50% in the 5th millennium BC, and 100% each millennium until 1000 BC, reaching 50 million people. After the beginning of the

Iron Age The Iron Age is the final epoch of the three-age division of the prehistory and protohistory of humanity. It was preceded by the Stone Age ( Paleolithic, Mesolithic, Neolithic) and the Bronze Age ( Chalcolithic). The concept has been mostly ...

, growth rate reached its peak with a

doubling time The doubling time is the time it takes for a population to double in size/value. It is applied to population growth, inflation, resource extraction, consumption of goods, compound interest, the volume of malignant tumours, and many other things ...

of 500 years. However, growth slackened between 500 BC and 1 AD, before ceasing around 200 AD. This "primary cycle" was, at this time in history, confined to

Europe Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a Continent#Subcontinents, subcontinent of Eurasia ...

North Africa North Africa, or Northern Africa is a region encompassing the northern portion of the African continent. There is no singularly accepted scope for the region, and it is sometimes defined as stretching from the Atlantic shores of Mauritania in ...

, and mainland

Asia Asia (, ) is one of the world's most notable geographical regions, which is either considered a continent in its own right or a subcontinent of Eurasia, which shares the continental landmass of Afro-Eurasia with Africa. Asia covers an are ...

. McEvedy and Jones describe a secondary, "medieval cycle" being led by feudal Europe and Song China from around 900 AD. During the period from 500 to 900

world population In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded 8 billion in November 2022. It took over 200,000 years of human prehistory and history for th ...

grew slowly but the growth rate accelerated between 900 and 1300 when the population doubled. During the 14th century, there was a fall in population associated with the

Black Death The Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, the Great Mortality or the Plague) was a bubonic plague pandemic occurring in Western Eurasia and North Africa from 1346 to 1353. It is the most fatal pandemic recorded in human history, causi ...

that spread from

. This was followed by a period of restrained growth for 300 years.Historical Demography
in Encyclopedia of Public Health, Retrieved on 3 May 2005

John F. Richards John F. Richards (November 3, 1938 – August 23, 2007) was a historian of South Asia and in particular of the Mughal Empire. He was Professor of History at Duke University, North Carolina, and a recipient in 2007 of the Distinguished Contribu ...

estimated the following world populations from the early modern period, 1500–1800. * 1500 world population 400-500 million * 1600 world population 500-600 million * 1700 world population 600-700 million * 1800 world population 850-950 million In the 18th century world population entered a period of accelerated growth. European population reached a peak growth rate of 10 per thousand per year in the second half of the 19th century. During the 20th century, the growth rate among the European populations fell and was overtaken by a rapid acceleration in the growth rate in other continents, which reached 21 per thousand per year in the last 50 years of the millennium. Between 1900 and 2000, the population of the world increased by 277%, a fourfold increase from 1.5 billion to 6 billion. The European component increased by 124%, and the remainder by 349%.

Asia

India

The Indian population was about 100 million in 1500. Under the

Mughal Empire The Mughal Empire was an early-modern empire that controlled much of South Asia between the 16th and 19th centuries. Quote: "Although the first two Timurid emperors and many of their noblemen were recent migrants to the subcontinent, the d ...

, the population rose to 160 million in 1700 by 1800 the population rose to 185 million.

Mughal India The Mughal Empire was an early-modern empire that controlled much of South Asia between the 16th and 19th centuries. Quote: "Although the first two Timurid emperors and many of their noblemen were recent migrants to the subcontinent, the d ...

had a relatively high degree of

urbanization Urbanization (or urbanisation) refers to the population shift from rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. It is predominantly th ...

for its time, with 15% of its population living in urban centres, higher than the percentage of the urban population in contemporary Europe at the time and higher than that of

British India The provinces of India, earlier presidencies of British India and still earlier, presidency towns, were the administrative divisions of British governance on the Indian subcontinent. Collectively, they have been called British India. In one ...

in the 19th century.

Abraham Eraly Abraham Eraly (15 August 1934 — 8 April 2015) was an Indian writer of history, a teacher, and the founder of Chennai-based magazine ''Aside''. Early life Abraham Eraly was born in the village of Ayyampalli in Ernakulam district, Kerala on 15 ...

(2007)
''The Mughal World: Life in India's Last Golden Age'', page 5

Penguin Books Penguin Books is a British publishing, publishing house. It was co-founded in 1935 by Allen Lane with his brothers Richard and John, as a line of the publishers The Bodley Head, only becoming a separate company the following year.British Raj The British Raj (; from Hindi ''rāj'': kingdom, realm, state, or empire) was the rule of the British Crown on the Indian subcontinent; * * it is also called Crown rule in India, * * * * or Direct rule in India, * Quote: "Mill, who was him ...

, the population reached 255 million according to the census taken in 1881. Studies of India's population since 1881 have focused on such topics as total population, birth and death rates, growth rates, geographic distribution, literacy, the rural and urban divide, cities of a million, and the three cities with populations over eight million: Delhi, Greater Mumbai (Bombay), and Kolkata (Calcutta). Mortality rates fell in 1920-45 era, primarily due to biological immunization. Other factors included rising incomes and better living conditions, improved better nutrition, a safer and cleaner environmental, and better official health policies and medical care. Severe overcrowding in the cities caused major public health problems, as noted in an official report from 1938: :In the urban and industrial areas ... cramped sites, the high values of land and the necessity for the worker to live in the vicinity of his work ... all tend to intensify congestion and overcrowding. In the busiest centres houses are built close together, eave touching eave, and frequently back to back .... Indeed space is so valuable that, in place of streets and roads, winding lanes provide the only approach to the houses. Neglect of sanitation is often evidenced by heaps of rotting garbage and pools of sewage, whilst the absence of latrines enhance the general pollution of air and soil.

China

China has older bureaucratic records than any other country. For example, Chinese

imperial examination The imperial examination (; lit. "subject recommendation") refers to a civil-service examination system in Imperial China, administered for the purpose of selecting candidates for the state bureaucracy. The concept of choosing bureaucrats by ...

s can be dated back to 165 AD. British Economist

Angus Maddison Angus Maddison (6 December 1926 – 24 April 2010) was a distinguished British economist specialising in quantitative macro economic history, including the measurement and analysis of economic growth and development. Maddison lectured at sev ...

estimated Asia's past populations through detailed analysis of China's bureaucratic records and the country's past

gross domestic product Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is of ...

. Population of Asia 1-1820 C.E. (million) Source: Maddison In the 15th century, China had approximately 100 million population. During the

Ming The Ming dynasty (), officially the Great Ming, was an imperial dynasty of China, ruling from 1368 to 1644 following the collapse of the Mongol-led Yuan dynasty. The Ming dynasty was the last orthodox dynasty of China ruled by the Han pe ...

(1368-1644) and

Qing The Qing dynasty ( ), officially the Great Qing,, was a Manchu-led imperial dynasty of China and the last orthodox dynasty in Chinese history. It emerged from the Later Jin dynasty founded by the Jianzhou Jurchens, a Tungusic-speak ...

(1644-1911) dynasties, China experienced a high population increase. From the years 1749 to 1811 the population doubled from approximately 177 million to 358 million. Advances in China's agriculture made feeding such a growing population possible. However, by 1815 increased rice prices caused landless households to favor feeding male infants which caused an increase in infant female mortality. Middle class households did the opposite due to their higher economic means and their infant female mortality rate declined. The rising cost of rice additionally affected the adult demographics, adult male mortality rate increased more than the adult female mortality rate. The growing population of China continued into the 21st century. The country continued to face the strenuous issue of how to feed its ever-growing population. In 1979 extreme reform was put into place with the implementation of China's

one-child policy The term one-child policy () refers to a population planning initiative in China implemented between 1980 and 2015 to curb the country's population growth by restricting many families to a single child. That initiative was part of a much bro ...

Early modern Europe

The population of early modern Europe, circa 1600 is estimated as follows (per

Karl Julius Beloch Karl Julius Beloch (21 January 1854 in Nieder-Petschkendorf – 1 February 1929 in Rome) was a German classical and economic historian. Biography From 1872 to 1875, he studied classical philology and ancient history in Freiburg, Heidelbe ...

, except for Russia for which Vodarsky's estimate is provided): *Italy, 13,000,000 *Spain and Portugal, 10,000,000 *France, 16,000,000, in its boundaries in 1600 *England and Wales, 4,500,000 *Scotland and Ireland, 2,000,000 *Netherlands, 3,000,000, including the Spanish Netherlands in 1600 *Denmark, 600,000 *Sweden, Norway, and Finland: 1,400,000 *Poland with Prussia: 3,000,000 *Germany: 20,000,000, probably including most or all of the territory of the

Holy Roman Empire The Holy Roman Empire was a political entity in Western, Central, and Southern Europe that developed during the Early Middle Ages and continued until its dissolution in 1806 during the Napoleonic Wars. From the accession of Otto I in 962 unt ...

outside Italy.Beloch gives it an area of 720,000 km2, about twice the size of modern Germany. *Russia: 7,000,000 (the population of the Tsardom of Russia within the 1600 borders)

References

* Cipolla, Carlo M. ''The economic history of world population'' (197
online free
* Fogel, Robert W. ''The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World'' (2004) * Fogel, Robert W. ''Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity'' (2014) * Lee, Ronald. " The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," ''Journal of Economic Perspectives'' (2003) 17#4 pp. 167–19
online
* Livi-Bacci, Massimo. ''A concise history of world population'' (Wiley, 2012
excerpt
* McEvedy, Colin. ''Atlas of World Population History'' (1978) Basic graphs of total population for every region of the globe from 400 BC to 2000 AD
online free
* Wrigley, E.A. ''Population and History'' (1976)

Ancient

* Bagnall, R.S. and Frier, B.W. ''The Demography of Roman Egypt'' (1994) Using data on family registers during the first three centuries AD, and modern demographic methods and models. Reconstructs the patterns of mortality, marriage, fertility, and migration. * Scheidel, Walter, ed. ''Debating Roman Demography'' (Brill: Leiden, 2001) * *Scheidel, Walter.

', July 2007, Princeton/Stanford Working Papers in Classics

Asia

* Davis, Kingsley. ''The Population of India and Pakistan'' (1951
Snippets
* Dyson, Tim, ed. ''India's Historical Demography: Studies in Famine, Disease and Society'' (, London: Curzon, 1989) **Mari Bhat, P. N. "Mortality and fertility in India, 1881–1961: a reassessment." in ''India's Historical Demography'' (1989). * Hanley, Susan B., and Kozo Yamamura. ''Economic and demographic change in pre-industrial Japan 1600-1868'' (1977). * Krishnan, Parameswara. ''Glimpses of Indian Historical Demography'' (Delhi: B.R. Publishing Corporation 2010) *Lee, James Z. and Feng Wang. ''One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000'' (2002); argues China's marital fertility was far below European levels esp, because of infanticide and abortion, as well as lower rates of marriage for men, low rates of marital fertility, and high rates of adoption * Peng, Xizhe. "China’s demographic history and future challenges." ''Science'' 333.6042 (2011): 581–587. * Taeuber, Irene Barnes. ''The population of Japan'' (1958).

Britain

* Eversley, D. E. C. ''An Introduction to English Historical Demography'' (1966) * Houston, R. A. ''The Population History of Britain and Ireland 1500-1750'' (1995) * Lindert, Peter H. "English living standards, population growth, and Wrigley-Schofield." ''Explorations in Economic History'' 20.2 (1983): 131–155. * Wrigley, Edward Anthony, and Roger S. Schofield. ''The population history of England 1541-1871'' (Cambridge University Press, 1989) * Wrigley, E. A. ed. ''English Population History from Family Reconstitution 1580-1837'' (1997)

Western Europe

* Cain, L.P. and DG Paterson. ''The Children of Eve: Population and Well-being in History'' (Wiley-Blackwell, 2012) 391 pp.; Covers Europe and North America * Flinn, Michael W. ''The European Demographic System, 1500-1820'' (1981) * Glass, David V. and David E.C. Eversley, ''Population in History: Essays in Historical Demography'', London: Edward E. Arnold, 1965 ** Henry, Louis. "The population of France in the eighteenth century." ''Population in History'' pp 441+ * Herlihy, David. "Population, Plague and Social Change in Rural Pistoia, 1201–1430." ''Economic History Review'' (1965) 18#2 pp: 225–244. ww.jstor.org/stable/2592092 in JSTOR on Italy * Imhof, Arthur E. "Historical demography as social history: possibilities in Germany." ''Journal of family history'' (1977) 2#4 pp: 305–332. * Kelly, Morgan, and Cormac Ó Gráda. "Living standards and mortality since the middle ages." ''Economic History Review'' (2014) 67#2 pp: 358–381. * Knodel, John. "Two and a half centuries of demographic history in a Bavarian village." ''Population studies'' 24.3 (1970): 353–376
Online
* Livi Bacci, Massimo et al. ''Population and Nutrition: An Essay on European Demographic History'' (Cambridge Studies in Population, Economy and Society in Past Time) (1991). * Russell, Josiah Cox. "Late ancient and medieval population." ''Transactions of the American Philosophical Society'' (1958): 1–152
in JSTOR
* Walter, John W. and Roger Schofield, eds. ''Famine, Disease and the Social Order in Early Modern Society'' (1991)

Eastern Europe

* Katus, Kalev. "Demographic trends in Estonia throughout the centuries." ''Yearbook of Population Research in Finland'' 28 (1990): 50–66. * Katus, Kalev, et al. "Fertility Development in the Baltic Countries Since 1990: a Transformation in the Context of Long-term Trends." ''Finnish Yearbook of Population Research'' 44 (2009): 7-32. * Lutz, Wolfgang, and Sergei Scherbov, eds. ''Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991'' (1993) * McCarthy, Justin. ''Population history of the Middle East and the Balkans'' (Isis Press, 2002)

Latin America

* Cook, Noble David. ''Demographic Collapse: Indian Peru, 1520-1620'' (Cambridge University Press, 2004) * Sanchez-Albornoz, Nicolas, and W.A.R. Richardson. ''Population of Latin America: A History'' (1974)

Middle East

* Karpat, Kemal H. ''Ottoman Population, 1830-1914: Demographic and Social Characteristics'' (1985) * McCarthy, Justin. ''Population history of the Middle East and the Balkans'' (Isis Press, 2002) * Todorov, Nikolai. "The Historical Demography of the Ottoman Empire: Problems and Tasks." in Dimitrije Djordjević, and Richard B. Spence, eds. ''Scholar, Patriot, Mentor: Historical Essays in Honor of Dimitrije Djordjevic'' (1992) pp: 151–171.

North America

* Fogel, Robert W. "Nutrition and the decline in mortality since 1700: Some preliminary findings." in by Stanley L. Engerman and Robert E. Gallman, eds. ''Long-term factors in American economic growth'' (U of Chicago Press, 1986) pp 439–556. * Hacker, J. David. "A census-based count of the Civil War Dead." ''Civil War History'' (2011) 57# pp: 307–348

* Haines, Michael R. and Richard H. Steckel.. ''A Population History of North America'' (2000) * Klein, Herbert S. ''A population history of the United States'' (Cambridge University Press, 2012)
excerpt
{dead link, date=September 2017 , bot=InternetArchiveBot , fix-attempted=yes * Smith, Daniel Scott. "The demographic history of colonial New England." ''The journal of economic history'' 32.01 (1972): 165–183
Online
* Smith, Daniel Scott, and Michael S. Hindus. "Premarital pregnancy in America 1640-1971: An overview and interpretation." ''The journal of interdisciplinary history'' 5.4 (1975): 537–570
in JSTOR

Comparative

* Lundh, Christer and Satomi Kurosu. ''Similarity in Difference: Marriage in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900'' (2014)

External links

* http://www.history.ac.uk/makinghistory/themes/demographic_history.html

Demography Demography () is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as ed ...

Population

Historical population of the world

Asia

India

China

Early modern Europe

See also

References

Further reading

Ancient

Asia

Britain

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Comparative

External links