The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a global consortium formed in October 2013 which researches methods to limit the rise of global temperature due to
global warming
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
to 2°C or less.
[
][
] The focus of the DDPP is on
sustainable energy systems, other sectors of the economy, such as
agriculture
Agriculture or farming is the practice of cultivating plants and livestock. Agriculture was the key development in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created food surpluses that enabled people t ...
and
land-use
Land use involves the management and modification of natural environment or wilderness into built environment such as Human settlement, settlements and semi-natural habitats such as Arable land, arable fields, pastures, and managed Woodland, woo ...
, are not directly considered.
Methods
Analyses of possible scenarios assume no major changes in culture and rely on existing technology. They assume no major changes in the lifestyles of people in developed countries and do not include possible future technologies such as
nuclear fusion
Nuclear fusion is a reaction in which two or more atomic nuclei are combined to form one or more different atomic nuclei and subatomic particles ( neutrons or protons). The difference in mass between the reactants and products is manife ...
. Population growth of 1% per year and economic growth of 3% is assumed. Analyses show a need for continued research on energy technologies.
[
The DDPP rejects an incrementalist approach to climate protection. Instead, meeting the climate change mitigation challenge (as set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement) will require ]backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. ...
to a suitable attractor, such as complete decarbonization. This method allows short-term policy options to be developed that are consistent with the selected long-term target. Even so, there are numerous possible deep decarbonization pathways (DDP) for each country and stakeholders and policymakers will need to debate and choose one, building the necessary political consensus as they go. DDPs can help avoid dead-end investments that reduce emissions in the short-term but obstruct deep decarbonization in the long-term and thereby reduce the risk of becoming stranded.[
The PDF is open access.]
In 2016, the project proposed a new conceptual decision framework for deep development pathways (DDP) analysis across its 16 participating countries. This includes an agenda for the further development of modelling methodologies. A key motivation is to address the "intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility."[
]
Findings
DDPP's analyses show that meeting a goal of limiting the rise of global temperature due to 2°C or less is barely possible using existing technology, if it were deployed, however long term plans are not in place to do so.[
As of early 2016, the DDPP was composed of energy researchers and institutions across the following economies and covering 74% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the UK and the US. The 2015 global synthesis and country reports can be downloaded.]GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is ofte ...
, welfare, and economic structure, while other did not.
See also
* Climate change mitigation
* Climate change mitigation scenarios
Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long ...
* Energy modeling
Energy modeling or energy system modeling is the process of building computer models of energy systems in order to analyze them. Such models often employ scenario analysis to investigate different assumptions about the technical and economic c ...
* Energy Modeling Forum
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) is a structured forum for discussing important issues in energy and the environment. The EMF was established in 1976 at Stanford University. The EMF works through a series of ad hoc working groups, each focussing ...
, and in particular EMF22
* Jeffrey Sachs
Jeffrey David Sachs () (born 5 November 1954) is an American economist, academic, public policy analyst, and former director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University, where he holds the title of University Professor. He is known for his work ...
, one of the founders of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
* Open Energy Modelling Initiative
The Open Energy Modelling Initiative (openmod) is a grassroots community of energy system modellers from universities and research institutes across Europe and elsewhere. The initiative promotes the use of open-source software and open data ...
References
Further reading
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project Reports
, the synthesis report and the country reports
*
External links
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project homepage
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International climate change organizations
Environmental research institutes