Alfred Higgins Burne DSO (1886–1959) was a soldier and military historian.A.H. Burne
''The Battlefields of England''
. He invented the concept of Inherent Military Probability; in battles and campaigns where there is some doubt over what action was taken, Burne believed that the action taken would be one which a trained staff officer of the twentieth century would take.

Career

Alfred Burne was educated at

Winchester School Winchester College is a public school (fee-charging independent day and boarding school) in Winchester, Hampshire, England. It was founded by William of Wykeham in 1382 and has existed in its present location ever since. It is the oldest of t ...

and RMA Woolwich, before being commissioned into the

Royal Artillery The Royal Regiment of Artillery, commonly referred to as the Royal Artillery (RA) and colloquially known as "The Gunners", is one of two regiments that make up the artillery arm of the British Army. The Royal Regiment of Artillery comprises t ...

in 1906. He was awarded the DSO during the

First World War World War I (28 July 1914 11 November 1918), often abbreviated as WWI, was one of the deadliest global conflicts in history. Belligerents included much of Europe, the Russian Empire, the United States, and the Ottoman Empire, with fightin ...

and, during

World War II World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...

, was

Commandant Commandant ( or ) is a title often given to the officer in charge of a military (or other uniformed service) training establishment or academy. This usage is common in English-speaking nations. In some countries it may be a military or police ran ...

of the 121st Officer Cadet Training Unit. He retired as a

Lieutenant-Colonel Lieutenant colonel ( , ) is a rank of commissioned officers in the armies, most marine forces and some air forces of the world, above a major and below a colonel. Several police forces in the United States use the rank of lieutenant colonel. ...

The Times ''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper ''The Sunday Times'' (fou ...

, 6 June 1959; ''Deaths'' He was Military Editor of Chambers Encyclopedia from 1938 to 1957 and became an authority on the history of land warfare. He was a contributor to the

Oxford Dictionary of National Biography The ''Dictionary of National Biography'' (''DNB'') is a standard work of reference on notable figures from British history, published since 1885. The updated ''Oxford Dictionary of National Biography'' (''ODNB'') was published on 23 September ...

. Burne lived in

Kensington Kensington is a district in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea in the West End of London, West of Central London. The district's commercial heart is Kensington High Street, running on an east–west axis. The north-east is taken up b ...

and his funeral was held at

St Mary Abbots St Mary Abbots is a church located on Kensington High Street and the corner of Kensington Church Street in London W8. The present church structure was built in 1872 to the designs of Sir George Gilbert Scott, who combined neo-Gothic and early- ...

there.

Inherent Military Probability

Burne introduced the concept of Inherent Military Probability (IMP) to the study of military history. He himself defined it thus :

My method here is to start with what appear to be undisputed facts, then to place myself in the shoes of each commander in turn, and to ask myself in each case what I would have done. This I call working on Inherent Military Probability. I then compare the resulting action with the existing record in order to see whether it discloses any incompatibility with the existing facts. If not, I then go on to the next debatable or obscure point in the battle and repeat the operation

More succinctly,

John Keegan Sir John Desmond Patrick Keegan (15 May 1934 – 2 August 2012) was an English military historian, lecturer, author and journalist. He wrote many published works on the nature of combat between prehistory and the 21st century, covering land, ...

defined IMP as

The solution of an obscurity by an estimate of what a trained soldier would have done in the circumstancesKeegan, John (1976). The Face of Battle: A Study of Agincourt, Waterloo, and the Somme, p.32. Penguin Classics. .

Burne's approach has been criticised on the grounds that his concept of Inherent Military Probability puts modern military thinking and doctrine into the minds of mediaeval monarchs. However, it does treat war leaders as intelligent, thinking creatures, and veteran mediaeval leaders were often likely to come to the same conclusion as British staff officers, albeit by different thought processes.

Bibliography

*''Mesopotamia, The Last Phase'' (1936), *''Lee, Grant and Sherman'' (1938), *''The Art of War on Land'' (1944), *''The Noble Duke of York'' (1949), *''

The Battlefields of England ''The Battlefields of England'' was a work of non-fiction by A. H. Burne first published in 1950 by Methuen. A sequel, ''More Battlefields of England'', followed in 1952. Burne, A. H.: ''The Battlefields...'' In 1996 the two works were combine ...

'' (1949), *''More Battlefields of England'' (1953), *''The Crecy War'' (1954) and *''The Agincourt War'' (1956). *''A military history of the First Civil War (1642-1646)'' (with Peter Young, 1959)

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Burne, Alfred 1886 births 1959 deaths People educated at Winchester College Graduates of the Royal Military Academy, Woolwich Royal Artillery officers Companions of the Distinguished Service Order British military historians