strategic early warning system
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The aim of a strategic early warning system (SEWS) is to assist organizations in dealing with discontinuities or strategic surprises. By detecting weak signals (
Igor Ansoff Harry Igor Ansoff (, 12 December 1918– 14 July 2002) was a Russian American applied mathematician and business manager. He is known as one of the fathers of strategic management. Biography Early life Igor Ansoff was born in Vladivostok, Rus ...
, 1975), which can be perceived as important discontinuities in an organizational environment, SEWS allows organizations to react
strategically Strategy (from Greek στρατηγία ''stratēgia'', "art of troop leader; office of general, command, generalship") is a general plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the sense of the "art ...
ahead of time.


Underlying theory

The underlying assumption of SEWS is that discontinuities do not emerge without warning. These warning signs are described as "weak signals" (Ansoff, 1975), a concept aimed at early detection of those signals which could lead to strategic surprises—events which have the potential to jeopardise an organization's strategy. Furthermore, the concept of a SEWS is intended to constitute an important part of a
strategic management In the field of management, strategic management involves the formulation and implementation of the major goals and initiatives taken by an organization's managers on behalf of stakeholders, based on consideration of resources and an assessme ...
system, operating real-time in an organization, and assisting in identifying the new, which emerge as those "weak signals". Detecting weak signals is achieved by scanning the organizational environment. The concept of
environmental scanning Market environment and business environment are marketing terms that refer to factors and forces that affect a firm's ability to build and maintain successful customer relationships. The business environment has been defined as "the totality of p ...
(Aguilar, 1967) describes a process whereby the environment in which an organization operates is systematically scanned for relevant information. The purpose is to identify early signals of possible environmental change and to detect environmental change already underway. The need for a formal strategic early warning process in organizations is based in large part on the existence of blindspots, which prevents leaders and executives from identifying weak signals of change (Gilad, 1998). Any formal SEWS process must incorporate blindspots analysis as part of its cycle. The system must be able to detect symptoms and weak signals outside and in the company and sent to a competent employee who will carry out an analysis of the cause of this state and confirm or deny negative development that might lead to a crisis situation (Zuzak, 2001).


Phases

The ideal SEWS process has three phases. *Phase 1 is characterised by the information gathering of "weak signals", or trends and issues. The scanning itself relies primarily on examining various media sources, the technique of content analysis (Nasbitt, 1982). The scanning activity is complemented by monitoring trends and issues that have already drawn attention. *Phase 2 is one of
diagnosis Diagnosis is the identification of the nature and cause of a certain phenomenon. Diagnosis is used in many different disciplines, with variations in the use of logic, analytics, and experience, to determine "cause and effect". In systems engin ...
, which is characterized by three steps: ** In-depth analysis of the trend or issue, examining the core and the various contexts of this phenomenon. The aim is to gain an impression of the possible potential development of an issue or trend.
Stakeholder theory The stakeholder theory is a theory of organizational management and business ethics that accounts for multiple constituencies impacted by business entities like employees, suppliers, local communities, creditors, and others. It addresses morals ...
may be used to understand actors in a specific industry (Comai and Tena, 2006). **The second step has two main objectives. ***An attempt should be made to think creatively about how the particular trend or issue could evolve. ***The nature of the contexts needs to be examined in order to
cluster may refer to: Science and technology Astronomy * Cluster (spacecraft), constellation of four European Space Agency spacecraft * Asteroid cluster, a small asteroid family * Cluster II (spacecraft), a European Space Agency mission to study th ...
several trends or issues, thus providing an understanding of the mutual influences on and of trends and issues. **In the final step, due to the limited resources in any organization, identify and select those trends and issues that are particularly relevant. *Phase 3 involves the formulation of an appropriate strategy to react to the trends and issues which have been identified and labelled as relevant.


References

*Aguilar, F. J. (1967), Scanning the Business Environment, The Macmillan Company, New York. *Ansoff, H. I. (1975), “Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals”, California Management Review, vol. XVIII no. 2, pp. 21–33. *Ansoff, H. I. (1980), “Strategic Issue Management”, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 1, pp. 131–148.
Cevolini, A. (2016), “The Strongness of Weak Signals: Self-reference and Paradox in Anticipatory Systems”, European Journal of Futures Research, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 1-13. DOI: 10.1007/s40309-016-0085-1.Comai, A. and Tena, J. (2006), Mapping and Anticipating the Competitive Landscape. Emecom Ediciones, Barcelona.
*Nasbitt, J. (1982), Megatrends, Warner Books, New York. * Gilad, Ben (1998). Business Blindspots. UK: Infonortics.
Gilad, B. (2003), Early Warning: Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies", AMACOM
*Zuzak, R. (2001), "Company early warning system conception", Agricultural Economics, vol. 47, no. 10, pp. 455–458 *Zuzak, R. (2017), "Early warning systems for strategic and crisis management", see http://knowledgeconference.upol.cz/downloads/2017-Knowledge_for_Market_Use_Proceedings.pdf, pp. 459–463


See also

Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP), formerly the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals, is a global non-profit best practice sharing community for experts from industry, academia, government, and non-profits ...
Strategic management Business terms