The Zelinsky Model of Migration Transition, also known as the Migration Transition Model or Zelinsky's Migration Transition Model, claims that the type of
migration
Migration, migratory, or migrate may refer to: Human migration
* Human migration, physical movement by humans from one region to another
** International migration, when peoples cross state boundaries and stay in the host state for some minimum le ...
that occurs within a
country
A country is a distinct part of the world, such as a state, nation, or other political entity. When referring to a specific polity, the term "country" may refer to a sovereign state, state with limited recognition, constituent country, ...
depends on its development level and its society type. It connects migration to the stages within the
Demographic Transition Model
Demography () is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
Demographic analysis examine ...
(DTM). It was developed by
Wilbur Zelinsky, professor of
geography
Geography (from Ancient Greek ; combining 'Earth' and 'write', literally 'Earth writing') is the study of the lands, features, inhabitants, and phenomena of Earth. Geography is an all-encompassing discipline that seeks an understanding o ...
at
Pennsylvania State University
The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State or PSU) is a Public university, public Commonwealth System of Higher Education, state-related Land-grant university, land-grant research university with campuses and facilities throughout Pennsyl ...
.
[{{Cite web, title=Wilbur Zelinsky memorial service planned for Oct. 26 {{! Penn State University, url=https://www.psu.edu/news/academics/story/wilbur-zelinsky-memorial-service-planned-oct-26/, access-date=2022-02-07, website=www.psu.edu, language=en]
Stages
One
Stage one ("Premodern traditional society"): This is before the onset of
urbanization
Urbanization (or urbanisation in British English) is the population shift from Rural area, rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. ...
, and involves little to no migration, while natural increase rates are about zero. Mobility (nomadism) is high, but migration is low. The high mortality of pre-modern societies compensates for higher fertility and slow population growth.
Two
Stage two ("Early transitional society"): During stage two a "massive movement from the countryside to cities" occurs. Industrialization improves public health and reduces mortality.
The "rate of natural increase" is rapid. Internationally migration rates are high, although the total population number is still rising.
Three
Stage three ("Late transitional society") corresponds to the "critical rung...of the mobility transition" where urban-to-urban migration surpasses the rural-to-urban migration, where rural-to-urban migration "continues but at waning absolute or relative rates", and "a complex migrational and circular movements within the urban network, from city to city or within a single
metropolitan region
A metropolitan area or metro is a region consisting of a densely populated urban agglomeration and its surrounding territories which share industries, commercial areas, transport network, infrastructures and housing. A metropolitan area usually ...
" increased, circulation and non-economic migration start to emerge. The net-out migration trend shifts to net-in migration. Mortality falls while population growth slows due to eroding social norms.
Four
Stage four ("Advanced society"): During stage four the "movements from the countryside to the city continues, but is reduced in
absolute and relative terms. Vigorous movement of migrants from city to city and within individual urban agglomerations...especially within a highly elaborated lattice of major and minor metropolises" is observed. A large increase in urban to suburban migration can also occur. The rate of natural increase is "slight to none".
Five
Stage five ("Future super-advanced society"): During stage five "Nearly all residential migration may be of the interurban and intraurban variety.... No plausible predictions of
fertility
Fertility in colloquial terms refers the ability to have offspring. In demographic contexts, fertility refers to the actual production of offspring, rather than the physical capability to reproduce, which is termed fecundity. The fertility rate ...
behavior because of a declining population,...a stable mortality pattern slightly below present levels".
See also
*
Human migration
Human migration is the movement of people from one place to another, with intentions of settling, permanently or temporarily, at a new location (geographic region). The movement often occurs over long distances and from one country to another ( ...
*
Gravity model of migration The gravity model of migration is a model in urban geography derived from Newton's law of gravity, and used to predict the degree of migration interaction between two places. In 1941, astrophysicist John Q. Stewart applied Newton's law to the so ...
*
Mobility transition
Mobility transition is a set of social, technological and political processes of converting traffic (including freight transport) and mobilities, mobility to sustainable transport with renewable energy resources, and an integration of several diff ...
*
Demographic gravitation
Demographic gravitation is a concept of "social physics", introduced by Princeton University astrophysicist John Quincy Stewart in 1947.Stewart, John Q., "Demographic Gravitation: Evidence and Applications," ''Sociometry'', Vol. 11, No. 1/2. (Feb ...
*
Demographic transition model
Demography () is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
Demographic analysis examine ...
References
Sociological theories
Human migration