The Zelinsky Model of Migration Transition, also known as the Migration Transition Model or Zelinsky's Migration Transition Model, claims that the type of
migration
Migration, migratory, or migrate may refer to: Human migration
* Human migration, physical movement by humans from one region to another
** International migration, when peoples cross state boundaries and stay in the host state for some minimum le ...
that occurs within a
country
A country is a distinct part of the world, such as a state, nation, or other political entity. It may be a sovereign state or make up one part of a larger state. For example, the country of Japan is an independent, sovereign state, while the ...
depends on its development level and its society type. It connects migration to the stages within the
Demographic Transition Model
In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to lo ...
(DTM). It was developed by
Wilbur Zelinsky
Wilbur Zelinsky (21 December 1921 – 4 May 2013) was an American cultural geographer. He was most recently a professor emeritus at Pennsylvania State University. He also created the Zelinsky Model of Demographic Transition.
Background and educa ...
, professor of
geography
Geography (from Greek: , ''geographia''. Combination of Greek words ‘Geo’ (The Earth) and ‘Graphien’ (to describe), literally "earth description") is a field of science devoted to the study of the lands, features, inhabitants, and ...
at
Pennsylvania State University
The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State or PSU) is a Public university, public Commonwealth System of Higher Education, state-related Land-grant university, land-grant research university with campuses and facilities throughout Pennsylvan ...
.
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Stages
One
Stage one ("Premodern traditional society"): This is before the onset of
urbanization
Urbanization (or urbanisation) refers to the population shift from rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. It is predominantly t ...
, and involves little to no migration, while natural increase rates are about zero. Mobility (nomadism) is high, but migration is low. The high mortality of pre-modern societies compensates for higher fertility and slow population growth.
Two
Stage two ("Early transitional society"): During stage two a "massive movement from the countryside to cities" occurs. Industrialization improves public health and reduces mortality.
The "rate of natural increase" is rapid. Internationally migration rates are high, although the total population number is still rising.
Three
Stage three ("Late transitional society") corresponds to the "critical rung...of the mobility transition" where urban-to-urban migration surpasses the rural-to-urban migration, where rural-to-urban migration "continues but at waning absolute or relative rates", and "a complex migrational and circular movements within the urban network, from city to city or within a single
metropolitan region
A metropolitan area or metro is a region that consists of a densely populated urban agglomeration and its surrounding territories sharing industries, commercial areas, transport network, infrastructures and housing. A metro area usually com ...
" increased, circulation and non-economic migration start to emerge. The net-out migration trend shifts to net-in migration. Mortality falls while population growth slows due to eroding social norms.
Four
Stage four ("Advanced society"): During stage four the "movement from the countryside to the city continues, but is reduced in
absolute and relative terms. Vigorous movement of migrants from city to city and within individual urban agglomerations...especially within a highly elaborated lattice of major and minor metropolises" is observed. A large increase in urban to suburban migration can also occur. The rate of natural increase is "slight to none".
Five
Stage five ("Future super-advanced society"): During stage five "Nearly all residential migration may be of the interurban and intraurban variety.... No plausible predictions of
fertility
Fertility is the capability to produce offspring through reproduction following the onset of sexual maturity. The fertility rate is the average number of children born by a female during her lifetime and is quantified demographically. Fertili ...
behavior because of a declining population,...a stable mortality pattern slightly below present levels".
See also
*
Human migration
Human migration is the movement of people from one place to another with intentions of settling, permanently or temporarily, at a new location (geographic region). The movement often occurs over long distances and from one country to another (ex ...
*
Gravity model of migration The gravity model of migration is a model in urban geography derived from Newton's law of gravity, and used to predict the degree of migration interaction between two places. Newton's law states that: "Any two bodies attract one another with a forc ...
*
Mobility transition
Mobility transition is a set of social, technological and political processes of converting traffic (including freight transport) and mobility to sustainable transport with renewable energy resources, and an integration of several different modes ...
*
Demographic gravitation Demographic gravitation is a concept of "social physics", introduced by Princeton University astrophysicist John Quincy Stewart in 1947.Stewart, John Q., "Demographic Gravitation: Evidence and Applications," ''Sociometry'', Vol. 11, No. 1/2. (Febru ...
*
Demographic transition model
In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to lo ...
References
Sociological theories
Human migration